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Arthur Henry

March 1, 2018

Diary

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 1, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FANGS??? PATH TO ONLINE BANKING),
(SQ), (V), (MC), (AXP), (JPM)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-28 19:47:302018-02-28 19:47:30March 1, 2018
Douglas Davenport

February 26, 2018 - MDT Alert (VIPS)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-02-28 12:46:132018-02-28 12:46:13February 26, 2018 - MDT Alert (VIPS)
Douglas Davenport

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alerts (JPM) Trade February 27, 2018

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-02-28 09:41:582018-02-28 09:41:58MOT Follow-Up to Text Alerts (JPM) Trade February 27, 2018
Douglas Davenport

February 28, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-02-28 09:23:372018-02-28 09:23:37February 28, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Arthur Henry

February 28, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL BERKSHIRE HATHWAY ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(ON WARREN BUFFET'S 2017 LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS),
(BRK/A), (AAPL), (IBM), (AXP), (KO),
(WFC), (BAC), (BNSF), (BHE), (WMT)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-28 01:07:042018-02-28 01:07:04February 28, 2018
Arthur Henry

February 28, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(RED HAT'S TRIP DOWN THE YELLOW BRICK ROAD WITH LINUX),
(RHT), (ORCL), (MSFT), (CRM), (SAP), (VMW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-28 01:06:232018-02-28 01:06:23February 28, 2018
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

About Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders

Diary, Newsletter

I have been reading Warren Buffet's annual letter to his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) shareholders for 41 years.

During this time, I can't recall reading a single page that did not improve my own trading and investment skills. This years was no different.

Of course, it helps that Warren was a founding subscriber to my own daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

A few years ago he bought a 5% stake in Bank of America (BAC) right at a multi decade bottom. He says he got the idea while reading a report in his bathtub.

What he omits in public is that it was MY Trade Alert to buy (BAC) call options issued the day before that he was reading.

And what a blockbuster year it has been!

Berkshire increased the share value by a stunning 23.0%. It added a gargantuan $65.3 billion in book value last year.

The market capitalization now stands at an impressive $525 billion.

The shares are not for small timers, as a single one now costs $317,840. Warren has never exercised a share split, viewing it as a needless Wall Street ploy to earn excess fees.

This compares to a 1965 per share market value of only $23.80, and is why the media are always going gaga over Warren Buffet.

If you're lazy and don't want to do the math, that works out to a compound annualized return of an eye popping 19.1%.

This is why guessing what Warren is going to do next has become a major cottage industry (Progressive Insurance anyone?).

Buffet is quick to point out that only $36 billion came from operations, the balance of $29 billion came as a gift from the US government in the form of the December package of tax cuts.

It truly shows the extent to which big business benefited from the bill, which is entirely dependent on borrowed funds.

Thanks to the extreme elevation of share prices 2017 was the first time in many years that Berkshire Hathaway did not make a major acquisition. It says a lot that the best investor in history can't find anything to buy in this market.

As a result, Berkshire is sitting on an eye-popping $116 billion in cash and US Treasury bills waiting for an opportunity, like another market crash.

Warren gave some insight to the cost to Berkshire of the three major hurricanes last year, as insurance is a mainstay of the company's strategy.

The tab came to $3 billion out of an industry wide total loss of $100 billion, putting the conglomerate's insurance operations at an operating loss for the first time in a decade. Buffet expects to make it back this year.

If Hurricane Irma had drifted only a few miles to the east, the industry loss would have doubled to a staggering $200 billion, and many insurance companies would have been pushed into bankruptcy.

I always thought that global warming would be terrible for property and casualty companies. It's not. Instead, it's great news.

The important thing about global warming is not that the temperature is getting hotter or colder. It's that the weather moves.

The end result is that those in parts of the world prone to storms, hurricanes, floods, fires, and other natural disaster pay much higher premiums. But the weather then shifts to other parts of the world that has no insurance coverage.

The higher income and fewer claims is a formula for printing money in Buffet's four major property and casualty insurance companies.

Sometime in the early 1970's, a friend of mine said I should take a look at a stock named Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) run by a young stud named Warren Buffet.

I thought, "Why the hell should I invest in a company that makes sheets."

After all, the American textile industry was in the middle of a long trek toward extinction that began in the 1920's and was only briefly interrupted by the hyper prosperity of WWII.

The industry's travails were simply an outcome of ever rising US standards of living, which pushed wages, and therefore costs, up.

It turned out that Warren Buffet made a lot more than sheets. However, he is not a young stud anymore, just an old one, like me.

Since then, Warren's annual letter to investors has been an absolute "must read" for me when it is published every year.

It has been edited for the past half century by my friend, Carol Loomis, who just retired after a 60-year career with Fortune magazine. (I never wrote for them because their freelance rates were lousy).

Witty, insightful, and downright funny, I view it as a cross between a Harvard Business School seminar and a Berkeley antiestablishment demonstration.

You will find me lifting from it my "Quotes of the Day" for the daily newsletter over the next several issues. There are some real zingers.

I was kind of pissed when Warren bought BNSF in 2009 for a blockbuster $44 billion, as it was long my favorite trading vehicles for the sector. Since then, its book value has doubled.

Together with Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), BNSF accounts for 33% of Berkshire's total after tax operating earnings.

Typical Warren.

Proving that humility is a crucial ingredient of long-term investment success, Warren devotes an early part of the letter to his fiasco at Dexter Shoe in 1993.

He bought the company for $434 million, which then promptly went bankrupt. Compounding the error, he paid for company not with cash, but with Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Today, that stock is worth in excess of $6 billion, which was paid out at the expense of other Berkshire shareholders.

Buffet opined at length on the Great American Economic Miracle, which he does every year.

Since 1776, America has amassed an unbelievable $90 trillion in wealth. There are 75 million owner occupied homes, 260 million cars, and talent filled universities by the hundreds.

Our unique system of free market capitalism has acted as an economic traffic cop, ably directing capital, brains, and labor to where it can be most efficiently used.

Warren then launched on an eloquent argument in favor of company share buy backs, now a hot topic among investors and in Washington.

Bottom line: Companies should always do it when they can get shares back at a discount to intrinsic or book value. Buffet does the same with Berkshire shares.

Warren clearly loves the insurance industry, which gives him the cash flow to make his many profitable investments.

And here is what I learned this year.

Another of Buffet's favorite companies is Clayton Homes, which accounts for 70% of new American homes priced under $150,000. Most of these are manufactured homes, or mobile homes to you and I.

Surprisingly, the real money in this business is in the subprime loans extended to customers.

What shocked many long time Buffet watchers was his sudden love affair with Apple (AAPL). After shunning the company for decades, he dove in with a major share purchase only in 2016.

In 2017, Warren invested more new capital in Apple (AAPL) than in any other company and it is now his second largest holding after Wells Fargo Bank (WFC).

Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM), and American Express (AXP) account for his next three top holdings.

I believe that Warren has partly been driven into Apple by the lack of other attractive investment alternatives eight years into a bull market.

He also deferred to his great grandkids, who seemed addicted to their Apple devices, indicating unshakable brand loyalty.

Warren ends his letter outlining the many events in store at the upcoming shareholders meeting on May 6 in Omaha, Nebraska, the "cradle of capitalism."

Guests can participate in a newsletter-throwing contest (one of Warren's and my first jobs), and get great deals on insurance (GEICO), and furniture (Nebraska Furniture Mart). Buyers of Brooks running shoes can join a 5k race the next day.

To learn more about the most amazing investor of our generation, and the two before, read "The Snowball" by Alice Schroeder.

As for me, I am way too busy to make it to Omaha. But I really look forward the next letter to shareholders.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/The-Snowball-by-Warren-Buffett-e1488333121317.jpg 400 259 The Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png The Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-02-28 01:06:042018-02-28 01:06:04About Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders
Arthur Henry

Red Hat's Trip Down the Yellow Brick Road With Linux

Tech Letter

When a marvelous company with cutting edge technology keeps chugging along, you do not have to wonder why the heck its shares are surging.

This is the case with Red Hat (RHT) who is trading at an all time high even after a broad based correction.

The extraordinary development of this earnings season is the broad-based strength that second tier tech companies, the Non-Fang's, have displayed beating and raising guidance amid the backdrop of rising rates and inflation.

This is what happened when FANG share prices run too far, too fast. The Niagara Falls of cash pouring into the technology sector cash need other companies to spill into.

The pioneering Linux operating system company has exhibited emphatic strength after the tech sector led the equity recovery from the precipitous correction earlier this month and the Nasdaq has gained back almost all of its losses.

The broader market is concerned about higher remuneration costs and runaway inflation. Rising wages will inflict severe damage to wage bills.

Look no further than bitcoin software engineers who accept entry level positions of over $100,000/year and autonomous vehicle engineers who start out at net $300,000/year and quickly scale to $450,000/year because of the severe talent shortage in Silicon Valley.

Luckily, the Mount Everest wage levels are justified when gross revenue per employee is steadily gushing upwards such as at Red Hat. Technology companies are almost the only ones that can afford these wage hikes because they have the earnings to justify them.

In the company's latest earning's report announced, revenue was up a bubbling 22% YOY. Application development and emerging technology subscription revenues registered at $162 million, up 44% YOY.

Operating cash flow was up 18% YOY at $160 million. Upcoming earnings project accelerated revenue growth.

Red Hat (RHT) has been one of the many recipients of the secular growth trend of tech and is making all the right moves to command praise from industry analysts.

Similar to Amazon (AMZN), the company still trades relative to future growth projections and does not trade on bottom line performance - PE multiples are irrelevant.

A headquarter in Raleigh, North Carolina would have been a death sentence 15 years ago, but the city has turned into one of the hippest tech nerve centers for blossoming millennials.

It's affordability, low cost of living and abundance of high paying gigs has lured in young professionals in droves.

The research triangle circuit of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill that feeds off of Duke University, NC State University, North Carolina-Chapel Hill and Wake Forest, give employers a formidable opportunity to cultivate an expansionary talent pool to cherry pick from.

The main arteries, I-85 and I-40, marry all these metro areas together making North Carolina well positioned to facilitate distribution.

Red Hat development is bound to open source software and Linux operating system offerings. Other know-how and expertise come in the form of virtualization, middleware, cloud, and storage technologies that equip a successful enterprises software business.

The extensive training and consulting they provide reverberates down to their revenue at 12% growth.

Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL), an operating system platform outperforming in hybrid cloud environments ensures a healthy infrastructure.

Red Hat JBoss Middleware, a key for developing, deploying, and managing applications; integrating applications, data, and devices; and automating business processes in hybrid cloud environments is another application on offer.

The stamp of supreme quality was validated when Red Hat joined forces with Alibaba (BABA) Cloud. The certification process required the completion of distribution of Red Hat's software.

It will be jointly available for both firms' customers, ISV's (Independent Software Vendor) and 3rd party developers to boost their infrastructure with a cost-effective, fluid solution.

With Alibaba Cloud's global audience, having Red Hat Enterprise Linux on Alibaba Cloud Marketplace offers customers better results from a platform capable of deploying enterprise cloud architectures to exponentially expanding business demands of digital transformation.

Red Hat, which compete with Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), SAP (SAP), and VMware (VMW), are in an enterprise cloud arms race and management sense they cannot back down from their pursuits. As with many before them, evolve or go extinct.

Red Hat has used their unique understanding of Linux and open source to consummate a mixed cloud product around OpenStack. This process began in 2014 as CEO, Jim Whitehurst firmly understood Red Hat could not flourish with Red Hat Enterprise Linux alone.

By becoming specialists in the open source sphere, it gave Red Hat the perfect podium to offer their cloud products. The Linux system and cloud software feed off each other and the recently acquired JBoss middleware layer that is required to hold these two together act as another revenue stream.

Jim Whitehurst has convincingly noted that the current offerings will easily see them march above $5 billion total annual revenue up from the less than $3 billion annually they procure today.

Salesforce's sheer size represents the 800-pound gorilla in the room, but Red Hat is advancing nicely and regularly surpasses growth targets which crucially sustains positive investment sentiment.

Open source projects are the new normal and will progress because of the diverse community of stakeholders that are particularly keen in making the software succeed.

It's important to recognize that open source outperformance will create better products globally and holistically advance the enterprise software market.

Open source software has the long-term vigor to outlast proprietary developers that aren't as committed. If products are continually improving, they become being incredibly sticky inside the ecosystem.

Red Hat has positioned itself smartly and share the lucrative pickings with others in its peer group.

Red Hat has prospered in a brave new world where business is catering to tech to enhance product levels and service explaining why Walmart (WMT) is turning into a tech company.

Red Hat is still ubiquitously famous for building a fresh version of Linux, specifically, an enterprise version, but it has begun reaccelerating with tools on their Linux platform such as cloud and container products that will pad profit margins.

These existing clients that already use RHEL (Red Hat Enterprise Linux) will continue to thirst for the new add-ons that harness innovative technologies.

Red Hat's share price is on a tear in 2018, already up over 17% and over 60% over the last 365 days. Use the next entry point to splurge on Red Hat.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/highlights.jpg 669 970 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-28 01:05:492018-02-28 01:05:49Red Hat's Trip Down the Yellow Brick Road With Linux
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (FXY) February 27, 2018 BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-27 11:13:282018-02-27 11:13:28Trade Alert - (FXY) February 27, 2018 BUY
Douglas Davenport

February 27, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-02-27 09:33:532018-02-27 09:33:53February 27, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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