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DougD

India is Catching Up With China

Diary, Newsletter

When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks.

I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide.

Aggressive population control measures where underway, and strict quotas were in force. Everyone was taking their grandmother in to get sterilized.

Some 38 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate.
My friends at the International Monetary Fund just put out a report predicting that India will grow by 8.5% this year. While the country's total GDP is only a quarter of China's $6 trillion, its growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2018.

Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years, and are positioning themselves accordingly.
India certainly has a lot of catching up to do. According to the World Bank, its per capita income is $3,275, compared to $6,800 in China and $46,400 in the US. This is with the two populations close in size, at 1.3 billion for China and 1.2 billion for India.
But India has a number of advantages that China lacks. To paraphrase hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, you want to aim not where the puck is, but where it's going to be.

The massive infrastructure projects that have powered much of Chinese growth for the past three decades, such as the Three Gorges Dam, are missing in India. But financing and construction for huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway.
A large network of private schools is boosting education levels, enabling the country to capitalize on its English language advantage.

When planning the expansion of my own business, I was presented with the choice of hiring a website designer here for $60,000 a year, or in India for $5,000.

That's why booking a ticket on United Airlines or calling technical support at Dell Computer gets you someone in Bangalore.
India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world.

Even though it has recently been terminated, China's 30-year-old ???one child??? policy is going to drive it into a wall in ten years, when the number of retirees starts to outnumber their children.
There is one more issue out there that few are talking about. The reform of the Chinese electoral process at the People's Congress in 2013 could lead to posturing and political instability, which the markets could find unsettling.

India is the world's largest democracy, and much of its current prosperity can be traced to wide ranging deregulation and modernization than took place 20 years ago.
I have been a big fan of India for a long time, and not just because they constantly help me fix my computers, make my travel reservations, and tell me how to work my new altimeter watch.

In August, I recommended Tata Motors (TTM), and it has gone up in a straight line since, instantly making it one of my top picks of the year. On the next decent dip take a look at the Indian ETF's (INP), (PIN), and (EPI).

??

Better to Own This Pyramid

Than This Pyramid

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Rickshaw.jpg 338 454 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2018-02-14 01:06:472018-02-14 01:06:47India is Catching Up With China
Douglas Davenport

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alerts (JPM) Trade February 13, 2018

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-02-13 15:27:212018-02-13 15:27:21MOT Follow-Up to Text Alerts (JPM) Trade February 13, 2018
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (FB) February 13, 2018 BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 12:56:222018-02-13 12:56:22Trade Alert - (FB) February 13, 2018 BUY
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (AAPL) February 13, 2018 BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 12:03:272018-02-13 12:03:27Trade Alert - (AAPL) February 13, 2018 BUY
Arthur Henry

Tech Trade Alert - (AAPL) February 13, 2018 BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 12:01:202018-02-13 12:01:20Tech Trade Alert - (AAPL) February 13, 2018 BUY
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (DAL) February 13, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 09:55:072018-02-13 09:55:07Trade Alert - (DAL) February 13, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
Arthur Henry

February 13, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 14 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE UNICORNS ARE OUT OF THE CORRAL),
(CDLX), (SNAP),
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 01:09:082018-02-13 01:09:08February 13, 2018
Arthur Henry

Don't Miss the February 14 Global Strategy Webinar

Diary, Newsletter

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, February 14 at 12:00 PM EST, which I will be broadcasting live from Silicon Valley in California.

We'll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate.

The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the appropriate securities with which to take positions.

I will also be opining on recent political events around the world and the investment implications therein.

I usually include some charts to highlight the most interesting new developments in the capital markets. There will be a live chat window with which you can pose your own questions.

The webinar will last 45 minutes to an hour. International readers who are unable to participate in the webinar live will find it posted on my website within a few hours. I look forward to hearing from you.

We recently have taken in a large number of new subscribers. If you miss it the webinar will be posted on the website within the hour.

To log into the webinar, please click on the link we emailed you yesterday entitled "Next Bi-Weekly Webinar - February 14, 2018" or click here

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/john-pogo2.jpg 605 365 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 01:08:572018-02-13 01:08:57Don't Miss the February 14 Global Strategy Webinar
Arthur Henry

The Unicorns are Out of the Corral

Diary, Newsletter

It was perhaps the worst timed IPO (initial public offering) of the decade.

Cardlytics (CDLX) went public at the Friday open, one of the worst days in the history of Wall Street.

The shares were priced at $13, and closed later in the day at a strong $13.33. The Dow Average then collapsed some 1,100 points in hours.

A lesser underwriter would have delayed the issue, given the dark stormclouds building on the horizon. Not so for JP Morgan Chase, which had heavily presold the deal, and went ahead, come hell or high water.

Cardlytics is a data platform that specializes in the collecting purchase and transaction data from financial institutions and converting the data into highly targeted marketing offers.

Cardlytics' flagship offering is called Cardlytics Direct - advertisements to customers that are placed directly in their banks' webpages and mobile apps in the form of "cash back" offers that most are familiar with.

Firms that purchase intelligence data from Cardlytics can target ads to customers who are most likely to respond.

A major part of the appeal of Cardlytics was its use of artificial intelligence in matching the buyers and sellers of ads.

AI is the hottest investment theme in Silicon Valley these days. However, there are very few public companies that allow investors a pure, or even peripheral AI play.

The Cardlytics IPO raises the urgent question of whether there are more unicorns to come. Unlike past market and economic cycles, unicorns, or successful companies still in the private startup stage, are delaying public filings longer than at any other times in the past.

Managers say they want to mature their companies and delay the high legal and regulatory costs that come with going public. The REAL reason is that founders want to milk their firms for all they're worth and sell them only after they go ex-growth.

The end result has been to create a shortage of high tech firms with the most cutting-edge technologies. This has caused investors to price the few public firms that are out there at even higher valuations.

Music streaming service Spotify is thought to be next in the IPO parade, followed by cloud firm Dropbox, followed by AirBnB and the $70 billion mammoth, Uber.

In the nine months ending in September, Cardlytics lost $16 million on sales of $91 million.

Cardlytics has raised more than $200 million in venture funding from ITC Holding Co. LLC, Kinetic Ventures, Canaan Partners, Polaris Venture Partners and TTV Capital, which are all cashing big paychecks today.

Given the recent performance of small tech IPO's, I'll be holding back on sending out a "BUY" recommendation on (CDLX) at this time.

Traders are still too freshly burned from their 2017 experience with SNAP (SNAP) (for more on this unfortunate company, please read the Mad Hedge Technology Letter piece "Don't Fall Into the SNAP Trap" by clicking here for tech letter subscribers only.

SNAP launched in March at $17, and then soared 44% on the first day to $29. It then collapsed to a low of $11.40, off a heartbreaking 60.68%. It was a classic case of investment banker incompetence, greed, and mispricing.

Once burned, twice forewarned, as they say.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/cardlytics-logo.jpg 148 632 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 01:07:132018-02-13 01:07:13The Unicorns are Out of the Corral
Arthur Henry

February 13, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter

February 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(CHASING NVIDIA),
(NVDA)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-13 01:06:052018-02-13 01:06:05February 13, 2018
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