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Douglas Davenport

March 15, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-15 09:03:152018-03-15 09:03:15March 15, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Arthur Henry

March 15, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, APRIL 6 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE TOP SIX CHINESE RETAILIATION TARGETS),
(AAPL), (GM), (WMT), (TGT), (BA), (SBUX), (CAT),
(AND MY PREDICTION IS?.)

?
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-15 01:09:152018-03-15 01:09:15March 15, 2018
MHFTR

March 15, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE STOCK THAT WILL STOP THE HACKING EPIDEMIC),
(FTNT), (EFX), (INTC), (IBM), (ORACL), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (BBY), (T), (AMKBF)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-15 01:06:092018-03-15 01:06:09March 15, 2018
Douglas Davenport

The Stock that will Stop the Hacking Epidemic

Tech Letter

If you like Palo Alto Networks, which the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has been recommending for years, you absolutely have to love Fortinet (FTNT), which can protect you from the most barbaric online intruders on a large scale.

Fortinet cloud security provides tailor-made protection for the Google (GOOGL) Cloud Platform, Microsoft (MSFT), AWS (Amazon Web Services), IBM (IBM) and Oracle (ORCL).

Cyberespionage is going from bad to worse, and shrewdly scaling into a few shares of Fortinet (FTNT) is prudent.

It's been a dreadful 12 months for corporate security.

First, Equifax (EFX) dropped a bomb, disclosing the data breach of 148 million Americans.

Then there was the Intel (INTC) chip debacle forcing companies to reanalyze in-house security operations thanks to a chip design flaw.

Not only is corporate intrusion becoming more vicious, it's also becoming more ubiquitous.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader sympathizes because our website has been the victim of several invasive hacks over the years from places as diverse as Russia and Indonesia.

In an era of record corporate profits, companies are woefully unprepared for the digital danger.

As organizations transfer critical data to the cloud circulating among a myriad of collaborating employees, the opportunities for crooks to hack are high-yielding and fruitful.

Why do people hack big corporate firms?

The simple answer is for profit.

Hackers understand there is a secondary market on the dark web waiting patiently to purchase stolen data. The data in the shop window is cut from all shades of cloth.

What is the dark web?

It is part of the Internet, accessible by means of special software, allowing users and website operators to remain untraceable.

Many illegal products and services are bought and sold there. Hackers can catch a bid, cash out through this de facto marketplace, and retire to a five-star palatial resort in a country with no extradition treaty.

The incentive to soak up sensitive data from corporate America is stoking a colossal outbreak of corporate malfeasance and pushing up cybersecurity costs to $90 billion this year, up 19% from last year.

Focal points of security investment will be around cloud security, next generation firewall technology, email security, threat vulnerability and identity access management.

On a macro level, Washington is doubling down on the cybersecurity phenomenon. The definition of national security has expanded to include all domestic technology.

Persistent threats against national infrastructure, such as power grids, nuclear facilities and water supplies, are turbocharging security budgets to protect national assets against these sophisticated attacks.

Groundbreaking technology is guarded even more so than the entrance to Fort Knox. The vigilance is necessary considering that lost funds related to data intrusion will reach $8 trillion by 2020. An example is shipping magnate Maersk (AMKBF), which estimates the revenue lost from hackers in 2017 to be in the $200 million to $300 million range.

As hyper-accelerating technology goes into overdrive, the situation could turn perilous. By 2021, 46 billion devices will be connected through the IoT (Internet of Things) that could start with a smart toaster connected to an iPhone.

It's entirely possible that a hacker could gain control to the whole shebang by accessing a connected toaster and moving laterally through the ecosystem destroying at will. Don't laugh. This already has happened.

A programmed smart home is the next battleground between consumer and large cap tech.

This is the conundrum that companies face. Firms are investing robustly in top-notch cybersecurity, but hackers are staying one step ahead of the curve. They learn from mistakes and expand an evolving tool kit of techniques to destabilize a bigger swath of the economy.

The street is ignoring national security weakness related to tech because tech earnings are stellar. The market is closer than ever before to an inflection point. The "aha" moment will be when a Fortune 500 firm is toppled by one of these digital miscreants.

Russia's Kaspersky Lab came and went like nothing happened. The market is still immune to cyber hacks but all that could change. This Russian firm was pigeonholed as a Russian secret service affiliate.

Kaspersky Lab sells antivirus, Internet security, password management and endpoint security products. You might even see a sexy ad for its products on the margin of your computer screen right now.

Best Buy (BBY) reacted fast, removing Kaspersky products immediately. Russian national CEO Eugene Kaspersky vehemently denies any link with the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, even though he graduated from The Technical Faculty of the KGB Higher School and was a former Soviet military software engineer.?

Keeping with the trend, lawmakers applied pressure to AT&T (T), gutting a deal with Huawei, a Chinese telecom company, to sell smartphones through its retail dealership. The government has publicly advised Americans to avoid buying Chinese smartphones at all costs.

Regulation soon will blanket the tech industry from head to toe and the big winner is Fortinet.

Fortinet has a four-point plan to invigorate sales to even higher levels.

First, the core business of network security continues to offer growth in new, adjacent markets. FortiGate 6000 series will reap further market share gains. The 6000 series is the fastest next-generation firewall application among peers.

Second, increasing adoption of public cloud will push companies to Fortinet Security Fabric adoption. Safeguarding Wide Area Networking infrastructures that can reliably and efficiently connect branch offices to corporate resources and this technology is about a quarter of the business.

Third, cloud security is the fastest-growing segment. Fortinet delivers the most diverse portfolio of cloud security applications, all managed through a single, integrated management console with automated threat response and policy, unified control, workload visibility and management across all cloud environments.

Lastly, strengthening broad security to IoT and OT (operational technologies) environments is the last growth driver.

On the financial side, quarterly revenue drifted up to $417 million, up 15%, and revenue performance was bolstered by 25% YOY services revenue growth.

The shift toward higher-value security subscriptions and support services is the catalyst for a larger portion of revenue being deferred onto the balance sheet at a total of $1.336 billion, up 29% YOY.

As security techniques complicate, cybersecurity companies will have further demand to protect shareholder value.

To visit Fortinet's website, click here: https://www.fortinet.com/

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-15 01:05:462018-03-15 01:05:46The Stock that will Stop the Hacking Epidemic
Douglas Davenport

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alerts (AMZN)(JPM)(EWZ) Trade March 13, 2018

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-14 09:20:092018-03-14 09:20:09MOT Follow-Up to Text Alerts (AMZN)(JPM)(EWZ) Trade March 13, 2018
Douglas Davenport

March 14, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-14 08:57:152018-03-14 08:57:15March 14, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Douglas Davenport

March 14, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TEN REASONS WHY APPLE IS GOING TO $200),
(AAPL), (AVGO), (QCOM), (GOOGL), (AMZN),
(TEN REASONS WHY STOCKS CAN'T SELL OFF BIG TIME),
(SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-14 01:09:212018-03-14 01:09:21March 14, 2018
Arthur Henry

Ten Reasons Why Apple is Going to $200

Diary, Newsletter

Here it is mid-March, and Apple is already closing in on my 2018 target of $200. Indeed, with a market capitalization today of $930 billion, Apple is on the verge of becoming the world's first $1 trillion publicly traded company.

And here's the really great thing about this year for Apple bulls. If you had the right cajones you had a chance to load the boat just above $150 only five weeks ago.

If you did, as I begged, pleaded, and beseeched you to do, your Apple trade earned a handy 22.33% at today's $183.50 high.

Now for the good news. The best is yet to come. In fact, there are ten reasons why Apple shares should hit my lofty target sometime this year.

1) Share buy backs are first and foremost. With $280 worth of cash in the bank abroad, and two thirds of that committed to buy back Apple stock, shareholders essentially have a free put option.

Indeed, you could see the company's invisible hand in the marketplace during the recent correction, soaking up shares at every opportunity. We won't learn the true numbers until the next quarterly earnings report on May 1.

2) Valuation is still the overwhelming factor driving institutions into Apple stock. With a price earnings multiple of 18X and a dividend yield of 1.40%, Apple is trading not only at a discount to the main market, but a discount to most of tech as well. No one ever got fired for buying Apple, at least not recently.

3) Apple's sales are as good as ever. The expected draw down in between new phone launches is proving less than expected. All of the channel checks suggesting a bigger drop have proven unfounded.

4) The rest of technology is on fire. Even if Apple were stumbling now, which it isn't, it would get dragged up by the meteoric moves seen in the rest of the FANG's.

5) The administration's nixing of the Broadcom (AVGO) takeover of QUALCOMM (QCOM), protects the principal supply of propriety chips for Apple phone safe from foreign interference. Broadcom could have chopped the research budget or transferred crucial technology to foreign competitors.

6) Apple is broadening its product lines, shifting to a new business model that delivers multiple new phones at the same time. This will include low priced models that will compete in new markets like India, as well as go head to head with the market share leaders, Samsung. This will increase market share and profitability.

7) While Apple possesses only 8% of the global cell phone market, it accounts for a staggering 92% of cell phone profits. Apple effectively has a monopoly on cell phone profits.

8) Their new lease program promises to deliver a faster upgrade cycle that will allow higher premium prices for their products and demand more phones. That will bring larger profits.

9) Apple continues to inexorably move into new products and services. While the company was late with the HomePod to compete against Amazon's (AMZN) Alexa and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Home, integration with the rest of the Apple ecosystem will enable the company to have the last laugh. Watch out for Apple Pay. Health care is another big target area.

10) Standards of living are rising worldwide. And guess what the first thing a newly enriched middle class does around the planet? They dump their Samsung Galaxies and Google Androids and join the IPhone club for the enhanced status alone.

I Hear Apple is Diversifying

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/appletrucking-e1405343507412.png 162 216 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-14 01:07:522018-03-14 01:07:52Ten Reasons Why Apple is Going to $200
MHFTR

March 14, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WELCOME TO THE NEW MICROSOFT)
(MSFT), (CRM), (RHT), (GOOGL),
(CVX), (KR), (LOW), (AMZN), (JCI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-14 01:06:032018-03-14 01:06:03March 14, 2018
Douglas Davenport

Welcome to the NEW Microsoft

Tech Letter

Investors are clamoring for cloud plays, which along with artificial intelligence (AI) have become the hottest investment themes of 2018.

However, many are ignoring one of the best new cloud plays of all, and that would be Microsoft (MSFT). However, this is not your father's Microsoft.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the poster boy for legacy tech turned cutting edge once again. It is now one of the top three cloud companies behind Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) and is closing fast.

In fact, most people have been using their products for years and have no clue of this amazing turnaround.

This year, 2018, has been the year of the cloud. As such, cloud stocks have been bulletproof, with leaders including Salesforce (CRM) and Red Hat Inc. (RHT) celebrating all-time highs.

The cloud companies are basking in the momentum of rising earnings and accelerating growth. Their fundamental stories are solid, and growth drivers unrelenting.

The No. 1 reason is the sheer increase in global data. Market intelligence services predict total data will grow to 163 zettabytes by 2025, which is 10 times the data generated in 2016.

For all the math geeks out there, 1 zettabyte is a trillion gigabytes.

This incredible volume of data will uncover new types of business and the user experience will evolve. In the near future, more than 20% of the data will be imperative just to normally function by 2025.

Big data is smartly harnessed by all profitable companies today and this data needs storage - huge amounts of it.

Fortune 500 companies operate from cloud software that streamlines and harmonizes operations, which is called enterprise software. The data accumulated on these platforms is digital gold, and infers trends and paradigm shifts on which CEOs base game changing-decisions.

The best up-and-coming cloud business is hands down Microsoft Azure. The existential threat of (MSFT)'s Azure is probably the only thing that keeps Jeff Bezos awake at night.

Azure produced a revenue beat for the ages, increasing by 98% QOQ. Microsoft's Azure public cloud is eating into Amazon Web Services (AWS) market share.

AWS is critical to Amazon's (AMZN) fortunes as its outperformance allows Bezos the cash flow to dump products on its e-commerce platform at or below cost, seizing market share and a higher stock price.

Microsoft delivers hybrid consistency, developer productivity, AI capabilities, and trusted security and compliance on Azure to its corporate customers. Partnering with other firms to provide cloud services is punctuated by bottom- and top-line outperformance.

At the micro level, investors can deduce the sticky underpinnings that are creating a profitable moat around Azure with these few examples.

Microsoft has an important relationship with Chevron (CVX), which uses Azure IoT to harness massive amounts of seismic data from its oil fields to accelerate deployment of modern, intelligent solutions for oil exploration.

Azure's cloud services also help Chevron manage thousands of oil wells dotted around the world, increasing revenue and operating safely and reliably.

Kohler is another company to link up with Microsoft's cloud bundle by building connected, voice-activated products powered by Azure IoT and Johnson Controls (JCI). GLAS thermostat with Cortana voice control uses scalable device management capabilities in Azure IoT and Windows IoT.

The Kroger (KR) supermarket chain is deploying Azure to fuel its digital grocery store display for real-time pricing, discounts and promotions based on shoppers' data to levitate sales.

Home improvement company Lowe's (LOW) in-store robot uses Azure to manage inventory and notify human management of out-of-stock or misplaced items. This is yet another example of humans and robots working in perfect harmony.

These are some of the examples of why Microsoft Azure is tearing into AWS's market share. Azure simply offers a more robust set of cloud software solutions compared to AWS because of its better enterprise functions, and it may become the future for all of us.

Another segment that gets little love is the LinkedIn purchase by Microsoft in 2016. LinkedIn, the employment networking site, aided by strong sales execution totaled $1.3 billion in quarterly revenue. Higher user engagement, customer acquisition, renewals and upsell performance make this the preeminent platform for business networking.

The next step is further integrating the leading professional cloud with the leading professional network. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of more than 20% growth for LinkedIn. I believe more can be done to monetize LinkedIn, and the potential is enormous.

Another segment that really cuts across the majority of the tech ecosphere via GPUs, A.I., hardware and software is gaming. Today, gaming is as hot as cord cutters, and millennials love playing video games.

Microsoft has been in the gaming space since the beginning, and revenue sprouted up by 8% QOQ driven by hardware revenue growth of 14% QOQ. The hardware comes in the form of premium console, the Xbox One X, the top-selling console in the US this past holiday season.

Microsoft has parlayed its commitments in gaming into acquiring PlayFab, which serves upward of 700 million avid gamers with more than 1,200 games from Disney, Rovio and Atari. It's a unique backend platform for mobile, PC and console game developers to scale up cloud-connected games linked with Azure to provide a world-class cloud platform for the gaming industry.

Microsoft is so much more than just an operating system and Microsoft Office in 2018. That is the old Microsoft. And that being said, Office 365 increased subscribers to 29.2 million last quarter, up from 28 million QOQ.

We have been in and out of Microsoft many times. Now, if it would only give us another decent dip, we could revisit the trough one more time.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-14 01:05:192018-03-14 01:05:19Welcome to the NEW Microsoft
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