Come join me in the grand appointments of the Cunard Line's flagship, the elegant and spacious Queen Mary 2, on an eastbound transatlantic cruise.
The Ship departs New York at 10:00 AM on July 6, 2018 and arrives at Southampton on July 13. There I will be conducting the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Strategy Update, a three-hour discussion on the global financial markets.
I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate. I'll highlight the best long and short opportunities. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be tossing a few surprises out there, too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $300 for the seminar only.
Attendees will be responsible for booking their own cabin through Cunard. They offer everything from an inside stateroom from $999 per person to $26,780 for Q1 deluxe two-bedroom apartment with its own gym.
Just visit Cunard's website or call them directly at 800-728-6273 to make your own arrangements.
The weather this time of year can range from balmy to tempestuous, depending on our luck. A brisk walk three times around the boat deck adds up to a mile. Full Internet access will be available, for a price, to follow the markets.
Every dinner during the voyage will be black tie, so you might want to stop at Saks Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to get fitted for a second and third tux. Don't forget to bring your Dramamine and sea legs, although the 151,400 tonne, 1,132-foot-long $900 million ship is so big I doubt you'll need them. The Queen Mary 2 just completed a major refit in Germany so everything is new.
The event will be held at a luxurious penthouse suite on the ship's highest deck, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation. To instill us all with a proper sense of humility, I will conduct the seminar as we sail over the wreck of the Titanic. The ship will give a blast of its horn three times as a salute as we pass the site.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the seminar alone, please click here.
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I can't tell you how much I enjoy your blog. It is the first place I go every morning, and I miss you on the weekends.
I stumbled upon your site about four months ago and have been addicted to it since day one. I really appreciate not only your insight into the markets, but also your global and historical perspectives.
All of this served up with your great sense of humor makes it a must read! Thanks for all your hard work.
"It doesn't take Herculean assumptions to get to $170 for S&P 500 earnings this year. Slap a 17.5 multiple on that, and you get 3,000 for the index," said Brian Jacobsen of Wells Fargo Asset Management.
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Suppose there was an exchange traded fund that focused on the single most important technology trend in the world today.
You might think that I was smoking California's largest export (it's not grapes). But such a fund DOES exist.
The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ) drops a golden opportunity into investors' laps as a way to capture part of the growing movement behind automation.
The fund currently has an impressive $2.28 billion in assets under management.
The universal trend of preferring automation over human labor is spreading with each passing day.
Suffice to say there is the unfortunate emotional element of sacking a human and the negative knock-on effect to the local community like in Detroit, Michigan.
But simply put, robots do a better job, don't complain, don't fall ill, don't join unions, or don't ask for pay raises. It's all very much a capitalist's dream come true.
Instead of dallying around in single stock symbols, now is the time to seize the moment and take advantage of the single seminal trend of our lifetime.
No, it's not online dating, gambling, or bitcoin, it's Artificial Intelligence (A.I.).
Selecting individual stocks that are purely exposed to A.I. is a challenging endeavor. Companies need a way to generate returns to shareholders first and foremost, hence, most pure A.I. plays do not exist right now.
However, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has found the most unadulterated A.I. play out there.
A real diamond in the rough.
The best way to expose yourself to this A.I. trend is through Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ).
This ETF tracks the price and yield performance of 10 crucial companies that sit on the forefront of the A.I. and robotic development curve. It invests at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of the underlying index. The expense ratio is only 0.68%.
Another caveat is that the underlying companies are only derived from developed countries. Out of the 10 disclosed largest holdings, seven are from Japan, two are from Silicon Valley, and one, ABB Group, is a Swedish-Swiss multinational headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Robotics and A.I. walk hand in hand, and robotics are entirely dependent on the germination prospects of A.I.
Without A.I., robots are just a clunk of heavy metal.
Robots require a high level of A.I. to meld seamlessly into our workforce.
The stronger the A.I. functions, the stronger the robot's ability, filtering down to the bottom line.
A.I. embedded robots are especially prevalent in military, car manufacturing, and heavy machinery.
The industrial robot industry projects to reach $80 billion per year in sales by 2024 as more of the workforce gradually becomes automated.
The robotic industry has become so prominent in the automotive industry that it constitutes greater than 50% of robot investments in America.
Let's get the ball rolling and familiarize readers of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter with the top 5 weightings in the underlying ETF (BOTZ).
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia Corporation is a company I often write about as its main business is producing GPU chips for the video game industry.
This Santa Clara, California-based company is spearheading the next wave of A.I. advancement by focusing on autonomous vehicle technology and A.I. integrated cloud data centers as its next cash cow.
All these new groundbreaking technologies require ample amounts of GPU chips. Consumers will eventually cohabitate with state-of-the-art IoT products (Internet of Things), fueled by GPU chips coming to mass market like the Apple HomePod.
The company is led by genius Jensen Huang, a Taiwan-born American, who cut his teeth as a microprocessor designer at competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Yaskawa Electric is the world's largest manufacturer of AC inverter drives, servo and motion control, and robotics automation systems, headquartered in Kitakyushu, Japan.
It is a company I know well, having covered this former zaibatsu company as a budding young analyst in Japan 45 years ago.
Yaskawa has fully committed to improve global productivity through automation. It comprises 5.79% of BOTZ.
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) trades on Nasdaq and is located in sun-drenched Sunnyvale, California.
This local firm designs, manufactures, and markets surgical systems and is industriously focused on the medical industry.
This is truly a needle-in-the-haystack type of company and is not well known outside of the corridors of Silicon Valley.
The company's da Vinci Surgical System converts surgeon's hand movements into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient.
The products include surgeon's consoles, patient-side carts, 3-D vision systems, da Vinci skills simulators, and da Vinci Xi integrated table motions.
This company comprises 9.55% of BOTZ and has one of the best charts out there in the tech sector.
Fanuc was another one of the hit robotics companies I used to trade in during the 1970s, and I have visited its main factory many times.
Thus, it's not a shocker to find out that Fanuc Corp. is the fourth-largest portion in the (BOTZ) ETF at 6.87%.
This company provides automation products and computer numerical control systems, headquartered in Oshino, Yamanashi.
It once was a subsidiary of Fujitsu, which focused on the field of numerical control. The bulk of its business is done with American and Japanese automakers and electronics manufacturers.
It has snapped up 65% of the worldwide market in the computer numerical control device market (CNC). Fanuc has branch offices in 46 different countries.
Keyence Corp. is the leading supplier of automation sensors, vision systems, barcode readers, laser markers, measuring instruments, and digital microscopes.
It offers a full array of service support and closely works with customers to guarantee full functionality and operation of the equipment. Its technical staff and sales teams add value to the company by cooperating with its buyers.
The company consistently has been ranked as one of the top 10 best companies in Japan and boasts an eye-opening 50% operating margin.
It is headquartered in Osaka, Japan, and makes up 7.70% of the BOTZ ETF.
(BOTZ) does has some pros and cons. The best A.I. plays are either still private at the venture capital level or have already been taken over by giant firms such as NVIDIA.
You also need to have a pretty broad definition of A.I. to bring together enough companies to make up a decent ETF.
However, it does get you a cheap entry into many of the illiquid, premium foreign names in this fund.
Automation is one of the reasons why this is turning into the deflationary century. I recommend that all readers who don't own their own robotic infused business to pick up some Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ).
The macro headwinds have beaten down this sector in 2018, and shares are currently oversold.
Cautiously scaling in at this point would be perfect for the long-term buy and hold investor.
Audacious traders should take a look at Intuitive Surgical and buy any dip that offers entry points near the 100-day moving average.
This support level has acted as ironclad support, as the price action elevates to the sky.
To learn more about (BOTZ) please visit the website by clicking here.
"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people," - said English mathematician, astronomer, theologian, author and physicist Sir Isaac Newton.
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
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Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE FUTURE IS HAPPENING FAST),
(HOG), (TLT), (ROM), (MU), (NVDA), (LRCX),
(SPY), (AMZN), (NFLX), (EEM), (UUP), (WBA),
(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)
I feel like I'm living life in fast forward these days.
First we got a slap across the face with a wet mackerel on Monday with a 328 plunge in the Dow Average on yet another trade war escalation.
Harley Davidson (HOG) said it was moving a factory out of the country to bypass new European duties imposed in response to ours. If Harley is doing this you can bet there are 10,000 other companies thinking about it.
And even though robust economic growth should assure us that we remain in a new bear market for bonds, traders think otherwise. A 10-year Treasury bond (TLT) yield at 2.81% says that we're already in the next recession, we just don't know it yet.
As always happens with the ebb and flow of the trade war, technology got hammered. My favorite early retirement vehicle, the ProShares Ultra Technology 2X ETF (ROM), plunged some 11.19% to an even $100. Chip stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and Lam Research (LRCX) get particularly hurt as China buys 80% of their processors from the U.S.
In the meantime, Tesla (TSLA) continues its phoenixlike rise from the ashes yet again, burning the shorts for the umpteenth time. The shares are now taking another run at a new all-time high. You would think people would learn but they don't. Einstein's definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
While bearish analysts predicted the imminent demise of the company, I saw a steady stream of trucks delivering new Tesla 3s from the Fremont factory while driving back from Los Angeles last weekend. Nothing beats on-the-ground research.
I'm sorry, but there is definite disconnect from reality with this company. The most hated company in America has produced the fifth best performing stock in over the past eight years, up more than 2,000%. I guess that's what happens when you disrupt big oil, Detroit, the U.S. dealer network, and the entire advertising industry all at the same time.
Interestingly, we caught three of the five best performers early on, including Tesla, NVIDIA (NVDA), and Netflix (NFLX).
Emerging markets (EEM) continue their death spiral, pummeled by the twin threats of trade wars and a soaring dollar (UUP). Most big emerging companies have their debt in dollars.
Sometimes you have to forget what you know to make money, and that has certainly been the case for me with emerging countries, where I spent a large part of my life.
The future is happening fast. Amazon (AMZN) single-handedly demolished the drug sector when it announced its takeover of online pharmacy company PillPack. The traditional brick-and-mortar retail pharmacy sector lost $9 billion in market capitalization just on the announcement. Walgreens (WBA) alone dropped a gut churning 10%.
If anyone can slash America's bloated health care bill it is Jeff Bezos. Just ask any former bookseller or toy maker.
And for a final middle finger salute to investors, the president said he wants to withdraw from the World Trade Organization, which the U.S. itself created after WWII. That means the United Nations is next on the chopping block.
America is rapidly becoming rogue nation No. 1, the next failed state. And failed states don't have great stock markets. Just check out the Somalia Stock Exchange.
They net of all of this is that the rest of the global economy is rolling over like the Bismarck, while the U.S. remains a sole beacon of strength. That's not good when half of S&P 500 earnings come from abroad.
However, that strength is based on a temporary one-time-only stimulus from massive deficit spending and corporate tax cuts that runs out of juice next year.
So keep tap dancing on the edge of the Grand Canyon. We'll miss you when you're gone. And before you ask, the best hedge in this kind of market is cash, which has huge option value that almost no one recognizes.
Despite all the chaos, uncertainty, and massive headline risk, I managed to tiptoe between the raindrops, keeping the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service performance just short of a new all-time high.
I closed out the month of June at a healthy 4.45%, my 2018 year-to-date performance rose to 24.82% and my 8 1/2-year return catapulted to 301.29%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 35.10%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 38.69%.
This coming holiday shortened week will be all about the jobs, jobs, jobs. Also, the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday to an overnight rate of 2.00%.
On Monday, July 2, at 9:45 AM, the May PMI Manufacturing Index is out.
On Tuesday, July 3, at 10:00 AM, the May Factory Orders are published.
On Wednesday, July 4, U.S. markets are closed for Independence Day. I will be watching the fireworks display over New York's Hudson River from the top of a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper.
Thursday, July 5, sees a huge bunching up of data thanks to the Fourth of July. It leads with the ADP Employment Report for private sector jobs at 8:15 AM EST. The Weekly Jobless Claims follow at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a rise of 9,000 last week to 227,000. Also announced is the all-important 25 basis point interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM, a reading of what was discussed at the last Fed meeting.
On Friday, July 6 at 8:30 AM EST, we get the June Nonfarm Payroll Report. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST. I will be sipping a glass of champagne as I board the Queen Mary 2 at the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal. I look forward to all those who signed up for my Seminar at Sea.
As for me, I will be hurriedly packing for the 2018 Mad Hedge European Tour.
Unfortunately, traveling in the grand style of the 19th century Belle Epoque involves bringing 200 pounds of luggage.
Now where are those darn black dress socks? And why am I missing a stud for my formal shirt?
Good Luck and Good Trading.
Time to Get Off the Merry-Go-Round
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
