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Global Market Comments
August 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT)
Please be advised there will be no Technology Letter
Thursday, August 2, or Friday August 3,
as Editor Arthur Henry will be traveling.
Publication will resume Monday, August 6.
Thank you for your understanding.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE RACE DOWN TO ZERO),
(SCHW), (FB), (WMT), (AMZN), (FFIDX), (BOX)
From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south.
On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomites. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe.
I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list.
I have been trying to climb this mountain for 45 years. During my early attempts I possessed the physical conditioning, but not the money to acquire the necessary equipment needed to get to the top.
An ice ax, crampons, helmet, and ropes don't come cheap to a 16-year-old.
In later years, vile weather frustrated my every attempt. Now the forecast was perfect, and the sun, the moon, and the stars aligned.
The Matterhorn has long been the premier climbing challenge on the continent. My doctor in Zermatt heads up many rescues and tells me that a dozen people a year die trying. The year 1999 was especially bad, claiming 39 lives.
Still, if death isn't on the table, it's not worth doing.
I spent a restless night sleeping under a heavy wool blanket in a shared bunk with a dozen other climbers at the 10,695-foot Hornli Hut. Get a group of guys like this together, and there is always one who snores.
At 3:00 AM we bolted out of bed to eat a hardy breakfast of eggs, cold cuts, and lots of strong coffee before launching an assault on the mountain.
We then quietly filled canteens and donned climbing harnesses and backpacks. The night sky was crystal clear, an ocean of stars shimmering upon us, with the occasional shooting star giving its blessing.
I had spent the past week acclimatizing myself to the high altitude, completing practice climbs to the top of increasingly difficult surrounding peaks. I was joined by my Swiss guide, Christian, of the Zermatt Alpin Center.
In his mid-40s, chocolate tanned, with thighs like tree stumps, he had already climbed the Matterhorn an impressive 77 times.
We took off at a rapid pace, passing most of the early starters. Zermatt guides are notorious for speed climbing, the theory being that the quicker they wore out their clients, the sooner they could go home.
I realized there was something far more responsible going on. Christian had to gain the confidence that I had enough energy reserves left for the descent, when 90% of all fatalities occur. At 11,800 feet he said, "Good," and we roped up.
It was about this time that I started to wonder if I should really be here. Most of the climbers we were passing were in their 20s and a few in their 30s, old enough to be my grandchildren.
After all, I'm the silver-haired gentleman people give their seat up to when riding the San Francisco BART. At 12,200 feet Christian ordered, "Now we put on our crampons."
From there on we silently pushed our way upward in the darkness, headlamps illuminating the way, methodically positioning our feet to make the leap to the next boulder above.
The mountain has been climbed for 151 years and many of the surfaces have been polished smooth by boots to the point of becoming dangerously slippery, especially when wet.
Much of the slope is frustratingly unstable. Half the rocks you reach for are loose. Stones sent flying by climbers above are a major risk, which is why we wear helmets.
By 5:00 AM we were at 12,700 feet and the sun started to rise. I took out my camera to take a picture, but fumbling with my climbing gloves, I dropped it. It smashed into a dozen pieces on a huge boulder and then skittered down into the great Matterhorn crevasse below.
I still had my iPhone to take pictures. But it's touch screen required me to take my glove off. With the temperature at 10 degrees below freezing, photos were not worth risking fingers to frostbite. So, you'll just have to read about it.
During the first half of the 19th century, the Matterhorn was the Holy Grail among climbers, and was considered impossible to conquer. Englishman Edward Whymper finally led a seven-man team to the top in 1865. He pioneered the same Hornli Ridge route that I was ascending today.
But on the way down a rope broke and four perished. One body was never found. Today, you can see the rope in a Zermatt museum, a crude manila affair, along with the clothes from another dead climber found months later.
Some 5,000 now attempt the climb every year, and about 500 make it to the summit. Ulrich Inderbinen made the top more than 370 times and last climbed it when he was 90. I was able to shake his hand at a picture signing in Zermatt a couple of years before he died from old age at 103 (click here for his obituary).
At 13,000 feet we approached the Moseley slab, so named for an American who fell to his death here in 1879. Beyond beckoned the Solvay Hut, a tiny, precariously sited rescue from weather that suddenly turns bad.
Taking a break, I found, amazingly, that I still had cell phone reception. Should I send out a Trade Alert from 13,133 feet?
That was where I encountered my first zombie, a climber who grievously underestimated the mountain and had used up every ounce of energy to get this far. His guide was coaxing, shouting and cajoling him to climb down one rock at a time.
Looking at his dead eyes, you know it was going to be a tough and dangerous descent. I later heard that the poor fellow, Japanese, fell and broke his leg and had to be helicoptered off.
There were many more zombies to come.
Above Solvay, we encountered the "fixed ropes," which are actually steel cables bolted to the face to help traverse the steepest and most dangerous passages. Lose your grip here, and its 3,000 feet straight down.
This is where we ran into the traffic jam, with simultaneous ascending and descending climbers competing for the same handholds. One dummy actually abseiled down on top of me, nearly knocking me off of my grip. Here, falling climbers are a major danger.
At 300 feet below the summit I passed Sophie's Ridge, so named for a young Italian woman who was turned back in the 1880's because high winds were embarrassingly blowing her Victorian ankle-length dress above her waist.
Now, altitude sickness was taking its toll, with many puking climbers turning back, the disappointment showing on their faces. Luckily, I felt fine.
Not far from there was the location of the original 1865 accident. Then we approached the small bronze statue of Saint Bernard, the patron saint of mountain climbers.
Bolted to the side of the peak, it was covered with ropes, as many teams tie on to it to rappel down.
Then we were on top. The weather was glorious. The summit was graced with a wrought iron cross that one finds atop many Alpine peaks. There was an impatient line of climbers waiting their turn to tag the summit, take some quick pictures, pick up a rock, and then start their way down.
The feeling of accomplishment was immense.
We carefully picked our way down, rappelling down the steepest faces. By now the sun was well up, the ice was melting, freeing up infinitely more loose rubble. One boulder the size of a small car crashed down 50 feet away, making a thunderous roar.
"Yikes," I thought. "We better get out of here."
At 13,000 feet, we encountered a team with one climber absolutely paralyzed with fear and refusing to budge. After some discussion, I agreed to let her rope up with us and escort her down to the Hornli Hut. The other guide was Christian's friend, and that would enable him to continue upward with his other clients. Our expedition turned into a mountain rescue.
Once Christian tied her in, I had second thoughts about being so charitable. If she fell, she could take me with her. Christian then convinced me he could hold both of us with a belay. We then encouraged her down the mountain one step at a time. I went through my entire repertoire of German jokes, which is rather short.
I learned that she sold toilets on behalf of a Swiss plumbing company for a living, and that until today had never done anything more serious than a day hike out of Lausanne.
All of her equipment was brand new. Part of the problem was that she had failed to don her crampons, which we found in her backpack, untouched in its original packaging.
Back at the Hornli Hut I was dog tired. Our impromptu guest suddenly fell to the ground and burst into tears. She then bought us both a celebratory liter of beer each. I was dying of thirst, as I had done the entire climb on just two quarts of water to save weight.
It had been the hardest day of my life and after 15 minutes at the table I couldn't move. The $1,200 investment in Christian had been well spent. He departed for Zermatt to pick up his next client.
I elected to spend a second night at Hornli and complete the 3,000-foot-hike down to Schwarzsee the next day. From there I was taking the gondola down. Nothing left to prove here. The second time, I slept like a rock.
It is traditional for successful climbers to pick up a stone at the summit and deposit it on a giant cairn at the beginning of the trail at 7,000 feet. Some of these weigh more than 50 pounds, a macho display of strength and endurance. When I made my contribution, a small pebble the size of a quarter, I made sure no one was looking.
I now have an empty place on my bucket list. What will replace it? I hear that Africa's 19,341-foot Mount Kilimanjaro is pretty easy.
Life is good.
Climbing One Step at a Time
Only 4,000 Feet to Go
Halfway and All Is Good
The Traffic Jam
The Summit
A Mountain Rescue
Take That Item off the Bucket List
It seems time after time, entire industries get flipped on their heads without notice.
The modern-day hyper-acceleration of technology is creating tectonic shifts in the economy that only some can truly understand.
There is the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The functionality of technology has helped enhanced our daily lives infinitely, yet there is a dark side of technology that has reared its ugly head threatening the future existence of mankind.
One industry next in line to be smashed to bits will have the effect of unimaginably reshaping Wall Street as we know it.
Gone are the days of brokers shouting from the trading pits, a bygone era where pimple-faced traders cut their teeth rubbing shoulders with the journeymen of yore.
The stock brokerage industry is at an inflection point with the revolutionary online stock brokerage Robinhood on the verge of shaking up an industry that has needed shaking up for years.
A common thread revisited by this newsletter is the phenomenon of broker apps being low-quality tech.
These apps can be built by a pimple-faced freshman college student in his dorm.
A broker ultimately serves little or no value to the real players among the deal, usually extracting huge commissions.
Technology and now blockchain technology vie to completely remove this exorbitant layer from the business process.
Well, for the stock brokerage industry, that time is now.
Robinhood is an online stock brokerage company based in Menlo Park, Calif., trading an assortment of asset classes including equities, options, and cryptocurrencies.
So, what's the catch?
Robinhood does not charge commission.
That's right, you can invest up until the $500,000 threshold protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) and you can go along with your merry day trading for free.
The online brokerage industry has been getting away with murder for years.
How did the online brokers get away with this in a technological climate where industries such as the transportation sector are being flipped on their head?
They got comfortable and stopped innovating - the death knell of any company.
Effectively, high execution costs reaping massive profits were the norm for brokers, and nobody questioned this philosophy until Robinhood exposed the ugly truth - unreasonably high rates.
Peeking at a monthly chart of brokerage costs will make your stomach churn.
For instance, a trader frequently executing trades with an account of $100,000 would hand over $1836 in commission in 2017 if their account was with Fidelity.
On the cheaper side, Interactive Brokers would charge $854 for its brokerage services to habitual traders per month.
The outlier was Tradier, a start-up brokerage founded in 2014 using the powerful tool of an API (Application Programming Interface), which charged $213 per month to trade frequently.
An API is described as a software intermediary allowing two applications to communicate with each other.
This model helped cut costs for the online brokerage because Tradier did not have to focus its funds on the trading platform that was delegated to various third-party platforms.
Tradier is largely responsible for the aggregation of data and charts thus employing an army of developers to meet their end of the business.
This model is truly the democratization of the online brokerage industry, which has been coming for years.
Cost are cut to a minimum with equity trades at Tradier costing investors $3.49 per order and option contracts costing $0.35 per contract with a $9 options assignment and exercise fee.
Technology has defeated the traditionalist again.
Day traders will tell you their largest worry is keeping a lid on execution costs.
Volume traders plan their strategies according to bare bones commission.
Marrying technology with online brokerages has the deflation effect that Amazon (AMZN) deftly took advantage to perfection.
Brokerages do not pay higher costs for an incremental bump in trading volume. Costs are mainly fixed.
If you hold an account in one of these legacy brokers charging an arm and a leg to trade with them, jump ship and join the revolution.
So how does Robinhood generate revenue if the broker trades for free?
Hawk ads? No.
They are not rogue ad sellers as is Facebook (FB).
The plethora of accounts opened with Robinhood earn interest, and Robinhood collects the earned interest as revenue.
Also, Robinhood has one paid service for sale.
Robinhood Gold is a subscription allowing traders to use margin. The margin accounts will set traders back $10 per month adding up to $120 per year, and they won't be charged interest on the funds.
This is peanuts compared to what other traditional brokerages are charging clients for margin account interest.
This is also a data grab with the proprietary data building up profusely turning into a potential Masayoshi Son SoftBank Vision fund acquisition.
Robinhood has already registered more than 5 million accounts for a company that started its operations in 2013.
The rise of these 5 million accounts coincided with the explosion of the price of bitcoin breaching the $20,000 level.
This price surge inspired a whole generation of millennials to get off the sofa and start trading cryptocurrencies.
More than 80% of Robinhood's accounts are owned by millennials.
Trading cryptocurrencies acts as a gateway asset to springboard into other asset classes such as equities and derivative contracts.
Vlad Tenev, co-CEO of Robinhood, indicated that Robinhood will have to modify its radical business model to monetize more of the business in the future, but he is comfortable with the current business model.
But Tenev has already seen fruit borne with the likes of Robinhood applying fierce pressure to the legacy brokerages' pricing models.
The traditionalists are locked in a vicious pricing war with each other slashing their commission rates to stay competitive.
The longer the likes of Charles Schwab (SCHW) feel it necessary to charge $4.95, down from the January 2017 cost of $8.95, the better the chances are that Robinhood can build its account base rapidly.
Charles Schwab has more than 10 million accounts, only double the number of Robinhood, after being founded in 1971.
The 42-year head start over Robinhood has not produced the desired effect, and it is ill-prepared to battle these tech companies that enter the fray.
Robinhood has been able to add a million new accounts per year. If Charles Schwab relatively performed at the same rate, it would have 47 million accounts open today.
It doesn't and that is a problem, because the company can be caught up to.
The lack of urgency to combat the tech threat is astounding. Companies such as Walmart (WMT) have taken the initiative to transform the narrative with great success.
The race to zero is a grim reality for the Fidelities (FFIDX) of the world, and adopting a Robinhood approach will be the playbook going forward.
Brokerages and a slew of other industries are turning into a legion of top-level developers fighting tooth and nail to stay relevant.
The transportation industry has grappled with this harsh reality lately, but the economy is on the cusp of many other industries digitizing to the extreme.
My guess is that Robinhood starts rolling out a slew of subscription services catering toward specific investors.
The age of specialization is upon us with full force, and customer demand requires care and diligence that never existed before.
Robinhood continues to enhance its offerings of various products adding Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash to the crypto lineup.
Only Bitcoin and Ethereum were offered before.
The company is not without headline investors boasting the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capitalist firm based in Menlo Park, Calif., Box (BOX) CEO Aaron Levie, and hip-hop mogul Snoop Dogg.
Expect Robinhood to pile the funds into improving the technology, data accuracy while offering a new mix of hybrid products.
The enhancements will attract another wave of adopters spawning another wave of panic from the legacy brokers.
To visit the pricing information at Robinhood, please click here.
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Quote of the Day
"When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor," - said Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk.
"This is very bullish for markets. It's bullish for markets intermediate term. Before, I thought we were in the seventh inning of a four-year bull market. Two waiters just came in and delivered another punch bowl. We're going into extra innings, baby," said Stanley Druckenmiller formerly of hedge fund Duquesne Capital Management, about the Fed's decision not to taper.
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