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MHFTR

April 27, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2018, PHILADELPHIA, PA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THURSDAY, JUNE 14, 2018, NEW YORK, NY, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-27 01:07:412018-04-27 01:07:41April 27, 2018
MHFTR

April 25 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader April Global Strategy Webinar with my guest co-host Mike Pisani of Smart Option Trading.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: Are you out of Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT)?

A. I'm out of Alphabet and I'm in Microsoft, but only for the very short term. I'm waiting for another big meltdown day to go back and buy everything back because I think the FANGs and technology in general are still in a secular bull market.

Q. Are Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) affected by the underperformance of Bitcoin?

A. They are. Bitcoin has been an important part of the chip story for the last two years because mining, or the creation of bitcoins, creates enormous demand for chips to do the processing. I think selling in bitcoin is over for the time being. You had a $25 billion in capital gains taxes that had to be paid by April 15.

People were paying those bills by selling their bitcoins. That's over now, and bitcoin is rallied about 30% since Tax Day because of that. So, yes, bitcoin is getting so big that it is starting to affect the chip sector meaningfully. That is another reason why we see secular long-term growth in the entire chip sector.

Mike Pisani: Interesting take on bitcoin today, and I've been with you on it. I think the worst of it is over; it's going to go. Today is the largest volume day we've seen on it so far. We're up over 15,500 contracts traded.

Q: If you're 100% cash, is now a good time to commit funds to the equity market?

A. Franz, I would say nein. Absolutely not. 2009 was the time to commit funds to the equity market. If you're 100% cash now I would stay out for the next six months. We may get a good entry point over the summer or the fall. I'll let you know when that happens because I will be jumping back in myself.

But right now, a week ahead of the worst six months of equity investment of the year, I would stay away and do research instead. Read your Mad Hedge Fund Trader letters. Build a list of names that you're going to buy on the next meltdown and practice buying meltdowns with your practice account, which doesn't use real money.

There's a lot of things you can get ready to do for the next leg up in the bull market, but buying right now, NO! I would put that in the category of, "Is it time to start shorting bonds question?" that we got a few minutes ago.

Q: Why did tech stocks sell off when they have great earnings results?

A: It's called, "Buy the rumor, sell the news." So many people already own the stocks and were expecting good earnings that there was no surprise when they were announced. These are some of the most over-owned stocks in history.

Everybody in the world owns them. Many people have multiple weightings in them, so when we enter a high-risk macro environment, which we have now, you want to get rid of the most over-owned stocks. That is exactly why all of these stocks that have had great runs are selling off, even though they have great earnings report.

Q: Are financials a good play here with interest rates rising though 3%?

A. Normally I would say yes. However, the macro background for the general market are so negative they are overwhelming any positive fundamentals specific to individual sectors like banks and stocks like Citigroup (C). By the way, financials all reported great results and got killed, so that is why I bailed out of my (C) position this morning at around cost. If you throw the best news in the world on a stock and it won't go up, it's time to get out of there.

Q: Would an unleveraged inverse ETF like the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) be good at a spike even now?

A. Yes, but when I say spike up better expect at least 20 (SPY) points or 1,000 Dow points. All these downside ETFs are great but you've got to get in at the right price. You know as they say in trading school, the profit is always made on the "BUY" and not on the "SELL."

So, if you can get on one of these super spikes up on the short side that is a great trade. So is the ProShares Ultra Short ETF (SDS) if you want to do the 2X leverage short fund. We've recently started doing this every month. We've been shorting (SPY)s and buying (VIX) on every one of these spikes up, and it's been working like a charm.

Q: Here's the best question of the day. Your timing has been perfect says Mary in Chicago, Ill.

A: Well, I'll take that kind of question all day long. Thank you very much. You're too nice to do that.

Q: Richard is asking would you buy an NVIDIA (NVDA) LEAP?

A: I would wait for meltdown days. Remember this is a market that gives you lots of meltdown days. Just wait for the next presidential tweet and you might get another 600-700-point dip in the markets. Those are the days you buy LEAPS. You don't have to get buy writing Trade Alerts like I do. You can just enter a limit order in your account. Put it as a stupidly low level to "BUY" and you may get hit. And that's where you really make the big money in this kind of market.

Q: Is there a good one- or two-month trade in Amazon?

A: Yeah, Paul, with this volatility you can pick a big winner like Amazon and you know to buy the 250-point dips and sell the rallies. These ranges are so wide now that even a beginner can make money. So, I would say you have to wait until after tomorrow on Amazon and let them get their earnings out. We know they're going to be great. They're doing home deliveries now to your car.

Q: Can long bond interest rates go up to 4%, and if that happens what would the market do?

A: Yes, they can go up to 4%, and I expect them to probably do that next year. What will it do to the market? Answer: Cause a bear market and a recession. Is that answer clear enough? My bet is that interest rates cap in this cycle much lower than they did in past cycles, maybe 4%-5%. We have been used to zero cost of money for so long that a move to 4% would be like stabbing somebody in the chest. People are much less able to deal with rising rates than they ever have been in the past, so watch this space.

Q: Should I buy the ProShares Ultra Short Treasury ETF (TBT) or the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)?

A: Brad, it's really is a leverage question for you. The (TLT) is 1X; the TBT is 2X, so I would be taking profits on the (TBT) here and then buying a couple of points lower. Or if you want to keep it for the long term you can but remember the cost of carry on the TBT is around 7% a year.

Q: Yves in Paris, France is asking: What possible scenario will you see material wage growth that could lead to higher inflation?

A: We're starting to see that now with the ultra-low unemployment rates. People are having great difficulty hiring anyone in technology. But at the minimum wage level there seems to be plenty of supply. The other possibility is that the cost of everything else goes up but wages, because technology is replacing jobs so fast there may never be any increase in wages.

So, we will get inflation, but nothing like the inflation we saw in the past driven by rising wages, commodity prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Yes, money is a commodity, which can add quite a lot to the cost of leveraged companies like airlines, REITs, and so on.

Q: Will rising interest rates force the US dollar up?

A. The answer is yes! It has been a long time coming, but if rates continue to rise from here, you can expect that to lead to a continuously rising dollar and falling foreign currencies, and that will become a major drag on the economy and corporate earnings going forward.

Q: When is a good time to buy TIPS?

A: Just like your Treasury bond short, I would buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) on the next rally in bond prices (TLT) and dip in yields. That will give you a decent entry point. That said, TIPS have been a horrible performer for the last 10 years because there has just been no inflation. A lot of people just keep TIPS as a hedge in their portfolio and it just costs them money every year.

Q: Which could blow up, Brad wants to know, TBT or TLT?

A: The easy answer there is probably neither. But if I had to pick between the two, the (TBT) would be the one to blow up because it's a 2X and has a lot less liquidity. So, I can't image in what world has (TBT) blowing up, but then I don't watch zombie TV shows either.

Q: I think US equities are expensive. Are emerging markets (EEM) or Europe (HEDJ) a better bet for the rest of the year?

A: I would say yes. Because if interest rates here in the US go higher that means a stronger dollar. That means a weaker US stock market. Because US companies are punished by a rising dollar. And European and Asian companies benefit from a rising dollar and falling home currencies, so that makes Europe the first choice of any of the global markets.

Q: Does oil going to $100 have a chance of bringing down the US economy?

A: Absolutely yes. If oil prices don't start to slow down, they will start having a big impact on the economy because that means rising prices for any energy consumer, which is you and me.

With no ability to offset that by rising prices of your products that would put a squeeze on any oil consuming industry, which is why things like the transports and consumer staples have been performing so poorly. If we get to $100, then you're really looking at a full-on recession and bear market for stocks. By bear market I mean down 25% or more in stocks.

Q: How do you see the India ETF?

A: We like it. India is the No. 1 pick of any hedge fund investor in emerging markets, and the ETF you can buy there is the PowerShares India Portfolio ETF (PIN).

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-27 01:06:552018-04-27 01:06:55April 25 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
MHFTR

Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon

Tech Letter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Philadelphia, PA, on Wednesday, June 13, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $238.

I'll be arriving at 11:45 AM, and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase a ticket, please click here.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Liberty-Bell-e1522162854859.jpg 216 480 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-27 01:06:442018-04-27 01:06:44Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

Thursday, June 14, 2018, New York, NY, Global Strategy Luncheon

Tech Letter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in New York City on Thursday, June 14, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $278.

I'll be arriving at noon and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase a ticket, please click here.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Statue-of-Liberty-e1522265320563.jpg 293 480 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-27 01:05:192018-04-27 01:05:19Thursday, June 14, 2018, New York, NY, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

April 26, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2018, PHILADELPHIA, PA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY CONSUMER STAPLES ARE DYING),
(XLP), (PG), (KO), (PEP), (PM), (WMT), (AMZN),
(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:09:172018-04-26 01:09:17April 26, 2018
MHFTR

Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Philadelphia, PA, on Wednesday, June 13, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $238.

I'll be arriving at 11:45 AM, and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase a ticket, please click here.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Liberty-Bell-e1522162854859.jpg 216 480 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:08:362018-04-26 01:08:36Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

April 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE SMALL AI PLAY YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF),
(BOX), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (IBM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:06:552018-04-26 01:06:55April 26, 2018
MHFTR

The Small AI Play You've Never Heard of

Tech Letter

The cloud segment of technology is hotter than hot, and as this sector starts to trade at a big premium, investors will have to look further down the chain of command to find a reasonable deal.

An up-and-coming cloud service Box (BOX) has gone undiscovered and is in position to seize a larger share of the cloud market moving forward.

The firm is led by CEO Aaron Levie who dropped out of my old alma mater USC in 2005 to start a cloud company with acting CFO and childhood friend Dylan Smith.

Last quarter was record-setting for Box, and it had a number of significant six- and seven-digit deals. Keep in mind Box's revenues are paltry compared to the behemoths that run this industry.

The platform has seen gradual success from all corners of the business world with various businesses from insurance claims processors to wealth advisors who use Box as a back-end platform.

Health care is another industry deploying the Box platform to aid and develop cloud services for patients.

In a general sense, the beauty of the cloud is the propensity to adapt to any company that is willing to go digital.

Even though many legacy companies are not natively digital, the cloud can twist and contort to fit the customers' needs.

Levie raised some compelling arguments for the continued tech momentum stating that imminent regulation in Europe through General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) will act as a "broader tailwind in compliance and security efforts."

Box also announced a "readiness (GDPR) package" revealing that tech companies have been planning for the regulation overhaul up to 18 months in advance.

Even though mass media sensationalism would lead investors to believe the threat of regulation is about to blindside this whole sector, the unrest has been bubbling up for quite some time allowing tech companies ample time to get their houses in order.

Box actually sees the genesis of GDPR as a critical part of the cloud adoption process.

As dinosaur systems become outdated, a sense of safety reinforced by strong cybersecurity protection, strong privacy rules, and content compliance will nudge companies to head for the cloud like a drunk sailor to a pub.

Legacy platforms are the most susceptible to cyber-criminals and rogue hackers.

The analog defense is no match for sophisticated cyber-espionage, and GDPR will be another "driving force" behind the macro-migration shift to the cloud, just based on the security aspect alone.

Another pearl of wisdom offered by Box is that the bulk of clients requiring cloud products are integrating Microsoft Office 365.

This software acts as a lynchpin to any cloud service.

I must confess that I am writing this story on Microsoft Office 365 now, and most businesses cannot function without the dizzying array of Excel, PowerPoint, and Word.

Box has a strong relationship with Microsoft and has incisive insight into the synergies the cloud industry spins off.

The integration of Office 365 has complemented the Azure cloud with tighter cohesiveness.

The school of thought is the collective cloud industry is a $50 billion per year market and growing, offering smaller firms healthy growth levers to advance at the same time that the Microsofts (MSFT) and Amazons (AMZN) overperform.

At the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and former Facebook executive, extolled Box as a great way to play Artificial Intelligence (AI).

The shares spiked almost 13% upon his adulation.

A recent completed survey showed 66% of business leaders feel the pace of digitization must pick up in their own offices.

The speed of innovation is something that keeps most CEOs up at night. Wake up tomorrow and it is possible their core products could be outdated or disrupted by a new Amazon threat.

That is the world we live in now.

Only 42% of CIOs admitted they have a digital strategy. And of those digital strategies, they are mostly digital second or third, not digital first, blueprints.

In the same PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) survey, companies conceded that only 40% of IT teams are able to pursue the newest innovations with adopting specific operational needs in mind.

The micro-environment harbors the same bullishness as the macro-factors.

Box is hitting all the right notes.

Revenue is advancing at a 24% per year clip, and annual revenue surpassed the half a billion mark.

Box has indicated it expects to cross the $1 billion annual revenue threshold sometime in mid- to late 2021, giving the company more than three years to double revenue.

Recent reports support Box's growth trajectory.

About 60% of revenue derives from firms that employ more than 2,000 workers, highlighting Box's propensity to emphasize enterprise cloud development instead of small individual users.

Working with larger companies gives Box the opportunity to cross-sell more powerful add-ons, delivering a net expansion rate of 14%.

Migrating to a new cloud platform is incredibly sticky boosting retention rates. Box's churn rate is flourishing with a best of breed 4% per year. The key to expediting cloud success is quickening its pace of new product rollout.

Box attempts to give exactly what customers need with a spate of new concoctions.

Box GxP is a new product calibrated around life science companies. The Box GxP compliance is up to date with FDA regulations. And, Box has the ability to retire legacy ECM (Enterprise Content Management) systems.

This new service has experienced solid traction around the world as we head toward a world where legacy software becomes obsolete.

The second new offering is Box Skills, still in beta mode, which is a part of Box's artificial intelligence strategy.

Box is platform neutral allowing in-house architecture to support partnerships with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and IBM to nail down third-party cloud tools that Box customers need.

Box Skills is a framework that brings the best machine learning innovation to content securely stored in Box.

This is managed through artificial intelligence, which automatically contextualizes images through detection protocols. Text recognition is automated for the benefit of the user, too.

Audio intelligence renders text transcripts and detects topics that can be searched in Box to locate an audio file by words or topic.

Video intelligence offers transcription, topic detection, and facial recognition allowing users to jump around video files in a non-linear fashion.

Palihapitiya effectively gave Box a free commercial to the tech investing world. His bull thesis for Box squarely centers around its AI innovations, specifically Box Skills.

The last new service to market is Box Transform, which is the advanced consulting arm of Box.

The goal of Transform is to arrange a concierge-like Box advisor that can help companies accelerate digital transformation throughout an organization while unlocking efficiencies and productivity for employees.

This service originated from Box's consulting advanced professional services team and will give Box another growth lever. Companies such as Red Hat and Intel have made the consultant- and support-side of the business a robust part of their organizations.

Impeding growth is the cutthroat competition in this space with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (GOOGL).

However, margins remain strong at 75.5% last quarter, and Box expects margins to slightly dip around 74% this year.

Box has found a warm welcome for its newer products, deriving almost 70% of its new deals from fresh cloud offerings.

Partners are also a big source of new deals comprising more than half the deals over $100,000.

Specifically, IBM (IBM) made up a swath of its larger deals. In a sense, competitors are not really competitors.

They are frenemies. They compete against each other yet innovate and do deals together.

The core growth is supplemented by existing customers that are the best source of extra marginal revenue.

In short, once firms are firmly lodged on a platform, they buy everything on that platform.

Enter a supermarket, and odds are if goods are purchased, the receipt will be from the entered supermarket.

Box is entirely leveraged toward mid-sized and large enterprise business. That is where it makes its money.

The emphasis on large players boosts the ACV (Average Contract Value), which is regarded as a sacrosanct metric for Box.

The amount of data created in 2017 was more data created in the past 5,000 years. In the next five years, data volume with grow by 800%.

Box has continually positioned itself as the firm that can extract a staggering amount of unrealized value locked away in the nooks and crannies of legacy models.

Box is a great long-term hold as these diminutive cloud assets become more valuable by the day.

 

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." - said Darryl F. Zanuck, co-founder of Twentieth Century-Fox Film Corp.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Expanding-revenue-image-4-e1524688537435.jpg 310 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:05:382018-04-26 01:05:38The Small AI Play You've Never Heard of
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (VXX) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-04-25 10:26:272018-04-25 10:26:27Trade Alert - (VXX) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (C) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-04-25 10:09:162018-04-25 10:09:16Trade Alert - (C) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
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