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MHFTF

November 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE QUANTUM COMPUTER IN YOUR FUTURE),
(AMZN), (GOOG),

(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-27 08:33:372018-11-27 08:24:44November 2018
MHFTF

November 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ONLINE COMMERCE IS TAKING OVER THE WORLD)
(AMZN), (ADBE), (WMT), (KSS), (TGT), (LOW), (EA), (ATVI), (TTWO), (ETSY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-27 01:07:322018-11-26 17:44:31November 2018
MHFTF

Online Commerce is Taking Over the World

Tech Letter

At our weekly Monday staff meeting, coworkers were griping and grimacing about their failed internet connections and annoying glitches to their favorite e-commerce sites during the mad rush to find the best deal during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Internet traffic was that torrential when sites were driven offline for minutes and some, hours by a bombardment of gleeful shoppers hoping to splash their credit card numbers all over the web on sweet discounts.

The crashing of system servers epitomizes the robust transition to online commerce that has most of us pinned to our devices surfing our go-to platforms all day long.

According to data from Adobe (ADBE) analytics, Black Friday sales jumped 23.6% YOY to $6.22 billion, and it was the first time in history that mobile sales broke the $2 billion threshold.

It is a clear victory for e-commerce and, in particular, mobile shopping that has become more integrated into modern tech DNA.

Mobile sales comprised 33.5% of total sales and were up from 29.1% last year, signaling that more is yet to come from this transcending movement that is shoving everything from content, digital ads, entertainment, banking and pretty much everything you can think of to your handheld smartphone.

CEO of Kohl’s (KSS) Michelle Gass confirmed the e-commerce strength by saying, “80 percent of traffic online came from mobile devices.”

The beauty of this movement is that it’s not an “Amazon (AMZN) takes all” scenario with other players allowed to feast on a growing size of the e-commerce pie.

“Click and collect” has been a strategy that has paid off handsomely with sales up 73% YOY during the shopping holidays.

This all supports my prior claim that e-commerce is one of the most innovative and dynamic parts of technology especially the grocery space, and the buckets full of capital attempting to reconfigure the e-commerce spectrum is creating an enhanced customer experience for the final buyer resulting in better products, superior delivery methods, and cheaper prices.

Some other retailers spicing up their e-commerce strategy are dinosaur big-box retailer’s intent to defend their business from the Amazon death star.

If you can’t innovate in-house, then “borrow” the innovation from somewhere else.

That is exactly what Target (TGT) has chosen to do announcing last week that it would grant free 2-day shipping with no minimum sale threshold.

The tactic is bent on undercutting Walmart (WMT) who currently operate a 2-day free shipping policy with a minimum order of $35.

Most shoppers will buy in bulk easily eclipsing the $35 per order mark minimizing the rot of small orders.

And if they aren’t eclipsing the $35 per order mark, it demonstrates the firm’s offerings lack the diversity and quality to compete with Amazon.

Capturing the incremental sale squarely rests on the e-tailers ability to coax out the buyers’ impulses to move on the can’t-miss items.

The lesser known retailers fail miserably at matching the lineup of products that Amazon can roll out.

The bountiful product selection at Amazon leads customers to pay for 3, 4, 5, 6 or more items on Amazon.com.

That said, I am bullish on Walmart’s e-commerce strategy. The “click and collect” strategy has shown to be an outsized winner increasing industry sales of this type 120% YOY.

Walmart is at the center of this strategy and they are refurbishing their supercenters to accommodate this growth in collecting from the curb.

Effectively, this gives customers the option to skip the queue instead of bracing the hoards and navigating the crowds of shoppers in the supercenter.

Other changes are minor but will help, such as offering online product location maps to customers beforehand and allowing customers to pay for large items like big-screen televisions on the spot.

The biggest windfall is derived from the cataclysmic demise of Toy “R” Us, giving Walmart a new foothold into the toy business.

Walmart is beefing up toy items by 40% in the stores and layering that addition with another 30% increase in their e-commerce division.

Adobe’s upper management recently said in an interview that interactive toys have been a wildly popular theme this year amid a backdrop of the best holiday shopping season ever recorded.

Another attractive gift selling like hotcakes are video games, titles boding well for sales at Activision (ATVI), EA Sport (EA), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO).

Reliant IT infrastructure will be a key component to executing these holiday sales bonanzas.

Clothing retailer J. Crew and home improvement chain Lowe's (LOW) were grappling with sudden disruptions to their IT systems before they managed to get back online.

More than 75 million shoppers parade the internet to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the opportunity cost swallowed to a tech glitch is a CEO’s worst nightmare.

Ultimately, what does this all mean?

Focusing on the positive side of the surging holiday sales is the right thing to do because the avalanche of momentum will have a knock-on effect on the rest of the economy.

Certain companies are positioned to harvest the benefits more than others.

Amazon guided its 4th quarter estimates conservatively and is in-line to beat top and bottom line forecasts.

Other pockets of strength are Walmart’s tech pivot, albeit from a low base. Walmart still has more room to maneuver and they are in the 2nd inning of their tech transformation snatching the low-hanging fruit for now.

Another interesting e-commerce company swinging its elbows around is Etsy (ETSY).

They sell vintage and handmade craft adding the personalized touch that Amazon can’t destroy.

Margins will be higher than the typical low-cost, value e-commerce platform, but scaling this type of business will be more difficult.

Sales grew 41% sequentially and just in time for a winter holiday blowout.

Etsy became profitable in 2017 after three straight loss-making years, and 2018 is poised to become its best year ever.

The profitability bug is hitting Etsy at the perfect time with its EPS growth rate up 36% sequentially.

They report at the end of February and I expect them to smash all estimates.

There are some deep ramifications for the long term of e-commerce that is beginning to suss itself out.

For one, shipping times will continue to be slashed with a machete. If you are enjoying the 2-day free shipping from Amazon and Target now, then wait until 2-day becomes 1-day free shipping.

Then after 1-day free shipping, customers will get 10-hour shipping, and this won’t stop until goods are shipped to the customer’s door in less than 1-hour or less.

This is what the massive $50 billion in logistical investments over the next five years by the likes of Uber and Amazon are telling us.

It will take years for the efficiencies to come to fruition, but it is certainly in the works.

In the next five years, America’s logistics infrastructure will have to accommodate the doubling of e-commerce packages from 2 billion to 4 billion per year.

Another trend is that omnichannel offerings are sticking and won’t go away anytime soon.

It was once premised that online sales would destroy brick and mortar, yet moving forward, a mix of different sales channels will be the most efficient way of moving goods in the future.

Pop-up stores have been an intriguing phenomenon of late, and surprisingly, 60% of consumers still require interaction with the product to be convinced it's worthy of buying.

Certain products such as fashionable dresses and designer shoes must be given a whirl before a decision can be made. This won’t change anytime soon.

The timing of the sales and marketing push has been moved forward as competitors are eager to get a jump on one another.

Management is agnostic to the timing of the sale.

Thus, discounted sales will show up a week before Thanksgiving as pre-Thanksgiving sales in the future elongating the holiday shopping season cycle by starting it early and delaying the finish of it.

Lastly, the record numbers prove that the e-commerce renaissance and the pivot to mobile is not just a flash in the plan.

What does this mean for tech equities?

The temporal tech sell-off of late is largely a result of outside macro forces and is not indicative of the overall health of the tech sector that has experienced record earnings.

If the markets can keep its head above the February lows, it sets up an intriguing December fueled by Americans flashing their digital wallets on online platforms.

 

 

 

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MHFTF

November 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Collectively, dominant online platforms have more power to shape public opinion than newspapers or the television ever had, yet they face very little regulation or liability.” – Said CEO of IBM Ginni Romett

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MHFTF

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 26, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

To sign up for free Hot Tips please click here. 

1) Oil is Trying to Bottom Here, and So Are Stocks. The two are now joined at the hip. Watching the (USO) for the right timing to re-enter the long side on stocks.

2) Black Friday Sales Up 4.5% YOY, to $23 billion, and I’m sure my kids accounted for at least half of that. The recession takes a day off.

3) General Motors Closes 3 Plants and Lays Off 15,000, as trade wars wreak havoc on old-line industries. It looks like Millennials would rather ride their scooters than buy new cars. Click here.

4) Markets Have Given Up Half the Valuation Gain of the Past Decade in only 7 Weeks, with price earnings multiples plunging from 20X to only 14.9X. The 2009 low was 9.5. Could this mean stocks are cheap?

5) Microsoft Now Tops Apple as the World’s Most Valuable Company. A 25% drop in the stock in seven weeks will do that. And the Mad Hedge Technology Letter thinks (MSFT) has the better growth prospects from here. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ARE WE IN OR OUT?)

(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (NFLX), (GOOG), (SPY), (TLT), (USO), (UNG), (ROM)

(WILL THE FAANGS FINALLY KILL OFF TELEVISION?)

(AMZN), (DIS), (FOX), (ROKU), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-26 15:49:592018-11-26 15:50:29Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 26, 2018
MHFTF

November 26, 2018 - MDT Alert (FB)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-26 15:37:022018-11-26 15:37:02November 26, 2018 - MDT Alert (FB)
MHFTF

November 26, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-26 09:25:472018-11-26 09:25:47November 26, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MHFTF

November 26, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ARE WE IN OR OUT?)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (NFLX),
(GOOG), (SPY), (TLT), (USO), (UNG), (ROM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-26 01:07:432018-11-25 16:19:36November 26, 2018
MHFTF

November 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WILL THE FAANGS FINALLY KILL OFF TELEVISION?)
(AMZN), (DIS), (FOX), (ROKU), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-26 01:07:262018-11-25 16:21:47November 26, 2018
MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Are We In or Out?

Diary, Newsletter

Are we already in a recession or still safely out of one?

That is the question painfully vexing investors after the stock market action of the past seven weeks.

There is no doubt that the economic data has suddenly started to worsen, setting off recession alarms everywhere.

October Durable Goods were down a shocking 4.4%. Weekly Jobless Claims hit 224,000, continuing a grind up to a 4 ½ month high. Is the employment miracle ending? Goldman Sachs says growth is to drop below 2% in 2019, well below Obama era levels. Maybe that’s what the stock market crash is trying to tell us?

The Washington political situation continues to erode confidence by the day. We have already lost real estate, autos, energy, semiconductors, retailers, utilities, and banks. But as long as tech held up, everything was alright.

Now it’s not alright.

The tech selloff we have just seen was far steeper and faster than we saw in the 2008-2009 crash. You have to go all the way back to the Dotcom Bust 18 years ago to see the kind of price action we have just witnessed. The closely watched ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM) has cratered from $123 to $83 in a heartbeat, off 32.5%.

Which begs the question: Are we already ten months into a bear market? Or is this all one big fake-out and there is one more leg up to go before the fat lady sings?

I vote for the latter.

If this is a new bear market, then it is the first one in history with the lead sectors, technology, biotechnology, and health care, announcing new all-time profits going in.

So, either Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOG) are all about to announce big losses in coming quarters, which they aren’t, or the market is just plain wrong, which it is.

Which leads us to the next problem.

Markets can be wrong for quite a while which is why I cut my positions by half at the beginning of last week. To quote my old friend, John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid,” who lists his entire fortune in the commodities markets during the Great Depression.

To see this all happen in October was expected. After all, markets always crash in October. To see it continue well into November is nearly unprecedented when the strongest seasonals of the year kick in. This was the worst Thanksgiving week since 2011 when we were still a wet dog shaking off the after-effects of the great crash.

There are a lot of hopes hanging on the November 29 G-20 Summit to turn things around which could hatch a surprise China trade deal when the leaders of the two great countries meet. The Chinese stock market hit a one month high last week on hopes of a positive outcome. Do they know something we don’t?

There were multiple crises in the energy world. You always find out who’s been swimming without a swimsuit when the tide goes out. James Cordier certainly suffered an ebb tide of tsunami proportions when his hedge fund blew up taking natural gas (UNG) down 20% in a day.

Cordier got away with naked call option selling for years until he didn’t. All of his investors were completely wiped out. I have always told followers to avoid this strategy for years. It’s picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Same for naked puts selling too.

The Bitcoin crash continued slipping to $4,200. I always thought that this was an asset class created out of thin air to absorb excess global liquidity. Remove that liquidity and Bitcoin goes back to being thin air, which it is in the process of doing.

Oil (USO) got crushed again, down an incredible 35.06% in six weeks, from $77 a barrel all the way down to $50 as recession fears run rampant. Panic dumping of wrong-footed hedge fund longs accelerated the slide. They all had expected oil to rocket to $100 a barrel in the wake of the demise of the Iran Nuclear Deal and the economic sanctions that followed.

Apparently, Saudi Arabia’s deal with the US now is that they can chop up all the journalists they want at the expense of a $27 a barrel drop in the price of oil. That will cut their oil revenues by a stunning $97 billion a year. That’s one expensive journalist!

Watch the price of Texas tea carefully because a bottom there might signal a bottom for everything including tech stocks. And I don’t see oil falling much from here.

As for performance, Thanksgiving came early this year, at least in terms of the skinning, gutting, and roasting of my numbers. If you do this long enough, it happens. Every now and then, markets instill you with a strong dose of humility and this is one of those time.

My year to date return dropped to +25.72%, and chopping my trailing one-year return stands at 31.71%. November so far stands at a discouraging -3.91%. And this is against a Dow Average that is down -2.01% so far in 2018.

My nine-year return withered to +302.19%. The average annualized return retraced to +33.57%. 

The upcoming week has some important real estate data coming. However, all eyes will be upon the Friday G-20 announcement from Buenos Aires. Will the trade war with China end, or get worse before it gets better?

Monday, November 26 at 8:30 EST, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is published.

On Tuesday, November 27 at 9:00 AM, the all-important CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is out. It will be interesting to see how fast it is falling.

On Wednesday, November 28 at 8:30 AM, Q3 GDP is updated. How fast is it shrinking?

At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report.

Thursday, November 29 at 8:30 we get Weekly Jobless Claims which have been on a four-month uptrend. At 10:00 AM, October Pending Home Sales are printed.

On Friday, November 30, at 9:45 AM, the week ends with a whimper with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM. At some point, we will get an announcement from the G-20 Summit of advanced industrial nations.

As for me, I drove through the first blizzard of the year over Donner Pass to finally crystal clear skies of San Francisco. Long-awaited drenching rains had finally cleansed the skies. Every Tahoe hotel was packed with Californians fleeing the smokey skies.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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