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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 18, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 18, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TAKING OFF FOR THE 2019 MAD HEDGE WORLD TOUR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-18 02:04:432019-06-18 02:37:47June 18, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Taking Off for the 2019 Mad Hedge World Tour

Diary, Newsletter

Terrorist attacks, trade wars, and crashing airlines all spell one thing to me.

Travel bargains!

Of course, my first choice for a vacation destination this year was the civil war in Syria, so I could find out on the ground what is really happening out there. In addition, I could shop for a refugee camp in Jordan for one of my non-profits to help support.

Unfortunately, my family was not too hot on this idea, not wishing to buy me back from kidnappers at an inflated price, again (the last time was Cambodia in 1976).

The Joint Chiefs were not too thrilled either. At my advanced age, I simply know too much to fall into the wrong hands. They said I would last a day.

So I compromised. This summer will find me flying around the world to meet my many disparate readers. I’ll be diving on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, riding elephants near the Taj Mahal in India, and enjoying a dinner cruise on the Nile in Egypt. If you spot someone wearing a fedora hat on a gondola in Venice Italy, it’s probably me.

I’ll end up at my chalet in Zermatt, Switzerland where I traditionally restart my year. Weather permitting, I'll climb the 14,692-foot Matterhorn again. Is it seven times this year, or eight? Otherwise, I’ll rejoin Zermatt Search and Rescue again pulling lost Americans off of Alpine slopes. It seems I’m the only one up there who has a sense of humor.

To make things exciting this year, I’ll have two teenaged daughters into tow, aged 14 and 15. Who said I didn’t like challenges?

The five-star hotels are booked, our passports are loaded with exotic visas, and the limo is waiting outside. The Cessna is fully fueled, and the flight plan filed.

I have worked the hardest in my life the past year, and it is time for a break. I have also put myself through the most grueling training regimen ever, hiking 2,000 miles in torrential rains and snowshoeing another 600, all with a 60-pound pack.

Every year it seems to get harder to keep the calendar at bay.

Along the way I will be meeting with other hedge fund managers, senior government officials, CEOs at major banks and Fortune 500 companies, large institutional investors, and a Nobel Prize winner or two.

Getting out into the real world and soaking up new data and opinions is invaluable in shaping my own global view, and your performance benefits from it.

Since I don’t stumble across these people in my living room, I have to travel the world and seek them out. You can soak up all the online data you want, but nothing beats contact with the real world.
 
I will be traveling with my laptop and keeping touch with the markets. While 18th century Internet service is passable, the bandwidth can be snail-like. So, unless I see something extraordinary, I will cut back on new Trade Alerts.

After running up a 315% return in nine and a half years and beating 99.9% of the hedge funds in the industry, I deserve a break. I need to spend some time alone on a mountaintop, communing with the spirits, attempting to discover the new long-term market trends through the mist.

While on the road, I will continue writing my newsletter, giving you my daily dose of market insight. I will also be re-running some of my favorite research pieces from the past when my travel schedule does not allow Internet access.

This is to expose my thousands of new subscribers to the golden oldies and to remind the legacy readers who have since forgotten them.

I will be back in San Francisco in early August, glued to my screens once again for another year of toil in the salt mines. In the meantime, please feel free to email me.

Mad Hedge Technology Letter author Arthur Henry and Mad Day Trader Bill Davis will be working straight through the summer. No rest for the wicked!

In the meantime, I shall be raising a glass to all of you at dinner, the loyal readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Salute! Prost! Kampai, and Cheers! Thanks for making this letter a huge success!

If you want to take the opportunity to meet me in person, please find my strategy luncheon schedule below. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store here and click on “LUNCHEONS”, and select the country and city of your choice.

Friday, June 21 12:30 PM Auckland, New Zealand
Monday, June 24 12:30 PM Melbourne, Australia
Tuesday, June 25 12:30 PM Sydney, Australia
Wednesday, June 26 12:30 PM Brisbane, Australia
Friday, June 28 12:30 PM Perth, Australia
Sunday, June 30 12:30 PM Manila, Philippines
Tuesday, July 2 12:30 PM New Delhi, India
Friday, July 5 12:30 PM Cairo, Egypt
Monday, July 8 12:30 PM Venice, Italy
Wednesday, July 10 12:30 PM Budapest, Hungary
Friday, July 19, 3:00 PM Zermatt, Switzerland

I look forward to seeing you there, and thanks for supporting my research.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/world-tour-map.png 579 897 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-18 02:02:512019-07-19 18:16:33Taking Off for the 2019 Mad Hedge World Tour
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 09:02:352019-06-17 09:02:35June 17, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE FLIGHT PATH OF UBER)
(UBER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 08:04:322019-07-19 18:14:06June 17, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Flight Path of Uber

Tech Letter

If you want a bull out of the gate type technology stock, those are few and far between at this point in the late economic cycle.

There's another deep-lying value out there and a company who promises the stars and the moon is Uber who announced some eye-opening developments.

Uber Elevate, a division of Uber developing urban flight ridesharing, will have to hold on to its ridesharing business serviced by combustion engine-based cars for quite a while before the company can literally take flight.

This is the type of investment that used to only be reserved for venture capitalists, but Uber going public has given the average American a chance at staking out and holding one of the most controversial yet forward-thinking tech companies in the world.

If Uber can get this up and running, the underlying stock promises to become a ten bagger.

The United States-based subsidiary of the Embraer, EmbraerX, focuses on the development of disruptive businesses.

EmbraerX fundamental pillar is the formation of the future experience of air transport users.

Last week turned heads by debuting a small electric-powered vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle that should transform the future for Uber and other ridesharing companies.

The annual Uber Elevate conference in Washington, D.C. offered a glimmer of hope for Uber Elevate, the company is hellbent on realizing the holy grail of ridesharing transport transforming into autonomous flying vehicles.

A business model concocted with this input would pay dividends for a company who is doling out subsidies to gas-guzzling drivers on the road to service.

Yes, this is the future, but the future is here sooner than you think.

The EmbraerX eVTOL will only be able to handle a few passengers from the get-go.

Unfortunately, autonomous piloting will integrate into the process slowly.

The goal is for the vehicle to be absolutely autonomous according to the manufacturer aligning with Uber’s much-prophesized aim of going fully autonomous.

Dreams aside, there appear to be many technical issues with executing this transformation such as how will a new generation of flying Ubers prevent nonstop collisions above a city?

Uber has buddied up with an army of air traffic controllers, academics, pilots and industry experts to study this issue, while EmbraerX has proposed a pragmatic, simple and robust urban air space design to allow more aircraft to operate in urban environments.

Uber’s flying division plans on rolling out their service by 2023 which is an ambitious target, to say the least.

EmbraerX is partnering up with Uber to try and make this happen.

The locations of Los Angeles and Dallas have been pinpointed as places they plan to demonstrate flight capabilities next year.

The timeline is excruciating tight if Uber plans to get all their ducks in a row and make this a reality.

Uber has toyed with other launch locations such as Brazil, France, and India.

Other aircraft manufacturers are in the mix as well allowing Uber to diversify the risk in case EmbraerX can’t deliver the goods.

Similar air products are being crafted by Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing subsidiary, Bell and Karen Aircraft, and a Slovenian manufacturer named Pipistrel Vertical Solutions.

The entire premise behind the aerial ridesharing involves delivering a network of airports.

It will not morph into a door to-door service because a lack of capabilities on last mile deliverability that gas-based cars possess.

The concept of skyports or skystations have been bandied around and will theoretically force passengers to find their way to these launch stations to take advantage of aerial capabilities.

Uber could deliver a 2-1 service with road-based cars delivering the passengers to the sky stations all through the Uber app and a receiving a windfall of 100% of the transport revenues.

Uber is collaborating with renowned architectural and engineering firms on that piece of the project to solve complex challenges.

The sky stations must be built around commercial and retail hubs making this problem even more frustrating because the lack of infrastructure and crowded nature of these tight spaces means this project absolutely cannot fail.

Can you imagine a failed blighted sky port hanging above the retail and tourist mecca of Times Square in Manhattan?

Then there is the issue of these sky ports being monumental eye sores ruining picturesque skylines that many people hold dear to their heart.

The San Francisco skyline and the property owners with panoramic views would lose enormous property value if they were holed up next to an Uber aerial flight route.

The company has brainstormed around building on top of existing under-utilized urban structures like parking garages or even big box malls.

Some of the designers see them as providing not just takeoff and landing platforms for eVTOL vehicles, but an all-inclusive mix of retail, entertainment, and commercial with fitness clubs, supermarkets, and fine dining integrated into the concept similar to Tokyo subway stations.

In terms of time, the benefits would be compelling with flights able to cut commutes down from 2 hours to 15 minutes.

This type of time savings is applicable to megacities such as New York and the San Francisco Bay Area where many employees reside in outer suburbs to only commute into the heart of the city with their cars.

Shared flights would mitigate traffic on the ground giving a 3D solution to the massive traffic problem megacities face.

Meanwhile, as a way of dipping its toe into the waters of urban aerial transportation, Uber is due to launch a new service in New York City on July 9 that relies on an existing technology: helicopters.

The new Uber Copter service is by way of the Uber app allowing customers to call for helicopter rides between lower Manhattan and JFK Airport, pegged at a price of about $250 per person.

Times will be reserved for the afternoon rush hours on weekdays – and only for Platinum and Diamond members of the Uber Rewards loyalty program.

Newark-based HeliFlite will operate this part of Uber offering 5 seats per helicopter.

This test roll-out will give Uber valuable insight into the pitfalls of running an aerial transport network and long-term feasibility of it.

What does this mean for Uber?

Part of accessing the public markets was to supercharge their Uber Elevate division.

It is happening.

The company will be able to access the debt market to fund its deep-lying value divisions much like Google’s autonomous driving division Waymo has been financed by its parent company Alphabet.

Regulatory headwinds still represent a doozy of a thorn in its side.

There is a real chance of Uber Elevate being ready before the government is ready to allow them to flood the sky with aircrafts, and a 2-year delay suddenly grounding the planes with shareholders footing the costs will sap the momentum.

Facebook has grown uncontrollably for over a decade and the government still can’t get their finger out and figure out what to do.

A decade hiatus would be catastrophic for Uber Elevate as flight crashes have a more graphic consequence than personal data being hijacked. 

I give Uber a 40% chance of creating a full-fledged, up and running aerial ridesharing service by 2023.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/uber-tech.png 397 864 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 08:02:152019-07-19 18:14:30The Flight Path of Uber
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“As we move over to more of a mobile device-centric world... I think the interaction model with devices is going to be much more voice-based.” – Said CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/dara.png 410 318 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 08:00:332019-07-19 18:14:48June 17, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE SCARY THING ABOUT THE MARKETS)
(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 02:04:092019-06-17 02:55:08June 17, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Scary Thing About the Markets

Diary, Newsletter

There’s one big scary thing about the markets right now. As I mentioned last week, the major indexes are sitting on a precipice of a right shoulder of a ‘Head and Shoulders” top.

Traders are expecting a trade war settlement and a Fed interest rate cut in July. While the economy in no way needs a rate cut, stock markets desperately do. In fact, they need another dose of steroids just to remain level. It reminds me of a certain recent California governor (I’ll be back).

If we get them, markets will grind up a few percentage points to a new all-time high. If we don’t, the top is in, possibly for this entire economic cycle, and a 25% swan dive is in the cards.

It's what traders call “Asymmetric risk.” If we get the bull case, you make sofa change. If we don’t, you lose dollars. It’s what I call picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. But in the 11th year of a bull market, that’s all you get. The truly disturbing part of this is that this setup is happening with valuation close to a historic high at a 17.5X price earnings multiple.

We’ll get a better read on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST when the Fed announces its decision on interest rates. The post meeting statement will be more crucial than usual. What’s in a word, Shakespeare might have asked? If the Fed drops the word “Patient”, then a July interest rate cut is a sure thing. The algos reading the release at the speed of light will be the first to know.

It was initially off to the races last Monday when the one-week trade war with Mexico came to an end and some immigration issues were settled.

The tariffs are off, even though the Mexicans say the terms were already agreed to months ago.

There is no big ag buy either. The economy is still sliding into a recession, and the bond market has already discounted three of the next five quarter point rate cuts.

US exports are in free fall, with Long Beach, America’s busiest port, seeing seven straight months of declines in shipping volumes. They were off 19.5% in May alone. Recession indicator no. 199.

Buy bonds (TLT), gold (GLD), and short the US dollar (UUP), says my old friend, hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones. He is certainly reading the writing on the wall. The legendary trading billionaire believes that plunging interest rate cuts are going to dominate the scenery for the rest of 2019.

Tanker attacks sent oil soaring. After 50 years of waiting, it finally happened, torpedo attacks against two tankers in the Straits of Hormuz bound for China. Oil rocketed 4%, then gave up the rally, and stocks are amazingly up on the day.

Go figure. A decade ago, this would have been a down 1,000-point day for stocks and Texas tea would have soared to $100. Clearly, tensions in the Middle East are ratcheting up, but with the US now the swing oil producer, why bother?

With US oil production climbing to 17 million barrels a day by 2024, up from 5 million b/d in 2005, the Middle East can blow itself up and nobody cares. The US by then will have created an entire Saudi Arabia’s worth of new oil production over a 20-year period. US troops there are defending China’s oil supply, not ours.

The US budget deficit soared by 38.7% YOY, to $739 billion. It’s the fastest growth in government borrowing since WWII. Much of today’s economic growth in on credit and this can only end in tears. Enjoy the good times while they last.

Major semiconductor maker Broadcom (AVGO) disappointed hugely on earnings, tanking the market, and the stock plunged a heartbreaking 12%. The trade war gets the entire blame.  It turns out that Broadcom’s biggest customer is the ill-fated Huawei whose CFO is now sitting in a Canadian jail awaiting extradition to the US. Other semiconductor stocks especially got slammed. The canary in the coal mine just died.

China’s industrial production hit a 17 year low, and yes, it’s because of the trade war, trade war, trade war. When your biggest customers come down with the Asian flu, you at the very least catch a severe cold. Start shopping for Robitussin.

Global Trading Dispatch closed the week up 15.38% year-to-date and is down by -0.34% so far in June. That’s show business. You work your guts out trying to understand this market and it turns out to be for free. Or worse yet, you get a bill without an amount due. This is something that regular salary earners don’t understand.

My nine and a half year profit appreciated to +315.52%, pennies short of a new all-time high. I think I’ll be flatlining at a high for a while to create a base from which I can jump to new highs. The average annualized return ticked up to +33.21%. With the trade war with China raging, I am now 100% in cash with Global Trading Dispatch and 100% cash in the Mad Hedge Tech Letter.

My twin bets on Tesla (TSLA) worked out very nicely and I took profits on both. It was an option play whereby I expected that (TSLA) shares would not fall below $150 or rise above $240 by the June 21 option expiration.

Several followers have seen good success using every Tesla dip below $200 to go naked short August $100 or $125 Tesla puts in small quantities for a decent amount of change.

The long view here is to wait for some kind of summer meltdown and then go long into a year-end rally as 2020 election-related turbochargers start to hit the market.

The coming week will be all about waiting for the Fed to jump. We also get some important updates on housing data.

On Monday, June 17 at 8:30 AM EST the Empire State Manufacturing Index is out.

On Tuesday, June 18, 8:30 AM EST, the May Housing Starts are released.

On Wednesday, June 19 at 2:00 PM EST, the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is announced. Vital is whether the word “Patient” remains in their statement.

On Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are printed. We also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

On Friday, June 21 at 10:00 AM, we learn May Existing Home Sales. The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.

As for me, by the time you read this, I will be winging my way somewhere over the Pacific Ocean. It’s a 14-hour flight from California to New Zealand, and the plane carries two crews.

It’s a genuine four movie flight. I’ll take off on Sunday and don’t arrive until Tuesday because I’ll be crossing the International Dateline. When I arrive, I’ll feel like death warmed over. It’s all in the name of research and finding that next great trading idea.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/John-and-statue-story-3-image-e1534971069333.jpg 365 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 02:02:112019-07-19 18:16:11Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Scary Thing About the Markets
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TSLA) June 14, 2019 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-14 11:22:112019-06-14 11:22:11Trade Alert - (TSLA) June 14, 2019 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 14, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-14 09:24:212019-06-14 09:25:57June 14, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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