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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF),
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG),
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-13 08:08:172019-11-13 08:50:48November 13, 2019
MHFTR

How to Handle the Friday November 15 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Followers of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter have the good fortune to own a deep in-the-money options position that expires on Friday, November 15, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

This involves the:

the Boeing (BA) November 2019 $300-$310 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread

The total profit on this position will increase the value of our $100,000 model trading portfolio by an impressive 1.35%, or $1,375.

Provided that we don’t have a monster “RISK OFF” move in the market this week (more failure of the China trade talks? War with Iran? A massacre in Hong Kong?) which causes stocks to collapse and volatility to rocket, this position should expire at its maximum profit points. So far, so good.

I’ll do the math for you on the (BA) position. Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $10.00 - $8.75 = $1.25

(11 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $1.25 profit per options)

= $1,375 or 14.28% in 18 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning November 18 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally mistakes do occur. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market disappears and the spreads substantially widen when a security has only hours or minutes until expiration on Friday. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK as long as I am looking over your shoulder as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next quarter end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Or use it to put a down payment on a long cruise.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

Markets are Especially Tricky Right Now

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/JT-story-2-image-e1523656976555.jpg 237 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2019-11-13 08:06:382019-11-13 08:50:56How to Handle the Friday November 15 Options Expiration
Arthur Henry

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Diary, Newsletter

Stocks will drop sharply in the coming year. It will most likely happen when the Democratic candidate takes a substantial lead over the president, which recent by-elections have shown is likely.

What could be better than an ETF that benefits from both falling bonds AND stocks?

It just so happens that there is such an animal.

When you look at the profusion of new ETFs being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops.

The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for it. The resulting returns for investors are usually disastrous.

But occasionally, a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, you hit a barn.

That’s why I am getting interested in the new ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). After riding the bull move in junk all the way up with (JNK), (HYG), I have recently turned negative on the sector.

Junk bonds have moved too far too fast. Current spreads for junk paper are now only 200 basis points over equivalent term Treasury bonds, and investors at these levels are in no way being compensated for their risk.

If the stock market starts to roll over in 2018, then the junk bond market will follow it in the elevator going down to the ladies' underwear department in the basement.

Keep in mind that when shorting the junk market, you run into the same problem you have with the (TBT), a leveraged short ETF for the Treasury bond market.

Buy the (JNK) and you are short a 5.75% coupon which, with the management fees, works out to a monthly cost of more than 50 basis points. That is a big nut to cover.

So timing for entry into this fund will be crucial

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/junk-car.jpg 275 397 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2019-11-13 08:04:502020-05-11 13:56:04Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY YOUR NEXT TAXI RIDE COULD BE BY AIR),
(UBER), (TSLA), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-13 04:04:462019-11-15 11:44:39November 13, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why Your Next Taxi Ride Could Be By Air

Tech Letter

San Francisco is 49.2 square miles of pure innovation – at least historically.

The most creative solutions to the world’s most complex problems have been generated from this diminutive peninsula that juts out into the Pacific Ocean.

But when it comes to transportation, and by that, I mean the public transportation efficiently operated in most European and Asian cities like Seoul, Korea and Frankfurt, Germany, San Francisco epically fails at delivering an adequate system to the masses.

Instead, the stopgap solution gave us Uber (UBER), the rideshare company, and the fall out is more cars clogging up a bigger portion of the roadways and bridges.

And then there is Tesla (TSLA), whose enigmatic CEO loves to tell investors that electric is the panacea to the world’s economy.

Is Silicon Valley that far off from solving the conundrum of smooth public transportation by applying technology?

The solution might be percolating in Wessling, Germany by a company named Lilium who developed the Lilium Jet, an electrically powered commuter aircraft capable of vertical taking off and landing (VTOL) flight.

Moving forward, it’s black and white that the answer is 3D and not 2D.

Lilium was founded in 2015 by four engineers and PhD students at the Technical University of Munich.

In 2017, The Lilium Eagle, an unmanned two-seat proof of concept model, performed its initial flight at the airfield Mindelheim-Mattsies near Munich, Germany.

The successful test led the company to launch the 5-seat Lilium Jet and they hope by 2025, to roll out a full-fledged aerial taxi service.

Co-Founder and CEO Daniel Wiegand swears that within five years, a fleet of them could offer a 10-minute trip from Manhattan to Kennedy International Airport for $70.

Expectations that aerial taxis will be a reality in the coming years are quickly skyrocketing.

Companies like Lilium are researching, testing, and laying the groundwork for wider production and hankering for support from government officials.

At least 20 companies have skin in the game, which Morgan Stanley estimates will become a $850 billion market by 2040.

Larry Page, the billionaire co-founder of Google (GOOGL), is financially buttressing Kitty Hawk, a Palo Alto company run by the first engineers on Google’s autonomous car.

Uber is developing an air taxi service, with plans to operate by 2023, but I highly doubt that investors would give the go ahead if the cash burn overwhelms them.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is another tripwire that could knock the 2025 schedule off kilter and their notorious bureaucratic ways do not infuse certainty into the project.

Can Lilium build a platform that is broadly accessible and efficient?

That answer will be unpacked in the next few years.

The aerial vehicle has a carbon fiber body, 36-foot wingspan, and is battery powered, providing a range of 186 miles and a top speed of nearly 190 mph.

Inside the oblong-shaped cabin, posh seats await four passengers and a pilot.

The aircraft can take off and land vertically like a helicopter and is even quieter than a helicopter.

Once scaled out, production costs will run in the several hundred thousand dollars for each aircraft-making profitability realistic.

There will be lower maintenance costs because there are fewer mechanical components, and rides should cost less than Uber.

If rolled out on a mass scale, cityscapes will be revolutionized.

San Francisco and California effectively could bypass proper land public transport and skip straight to aerial vehicles as taxis.

Lilium’s plane has packed 36 smaller engines in its rotating wings that act as thrusters for takeoffs, landings, and subtle movements forward and back. Encasing the engines in the wings reduces friction and noise.

Lilium’s performance is currently unmatched but its secretive nature of the technology means it’s hard to quantify where they are now in the development.

With the funneling of capital to solve global transportation issues, aerial aspects will definitely be intertwined into the solution.

The race is on to capture the first-mover advantage and my bet it will be Lilium.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/air-taxi.png 343 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-13 04:02:232020-05-11 12:22:16Why Your Next Taxi Ride Could Be By Air
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“This is the perfect means of transportation, something that can take off and land everywhere.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO Lilium Daniel Wiegand

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/wiegand.png 383 249 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-13 04:00:342019-11-13 08:20:16November 13, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) November 12, 2019 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-12 12:43:042019-11-12 12:43:04Trade Alert - (TLT) November 12, 2019 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TSLA) November 12, 2019 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-12 12:15:312019-11-12 12:15:31Trade Alert - (TSLA) November 12, 2019 - STOP LOSS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-12 09:27:502019-11-12 09:27:50November 12, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter
November 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MERCK SCORES BIG ON MELANOMA)
(MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-12 06:02:342019-11-12 06:47:13November 12, 2019
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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