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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Freelancing to the Tune of the Gig Economy

Tech Letter

The company who exploits workers in the gig economy, Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR), went public and is a terrible long-term buy and hold for investors.

I’ll tell you exactly why you should stay away from it like the plague.

Take a look at one of the sad side effects of the tech industry – 58% of full-time gig workers said they would have a hard time finding $400 to cover an emergency bill compared to 38% of people who don’t work in the gig economy.

The large discrepancy indicates that the informal economy is far more destabilized from Silicon Valley than investors care to admit.

And in many cases, the brutal economic conditions don’t underline the lack of upward mobility too.

While some are drawn to flexible roles, the gig-economy has faced condemnation, particularly because it has enabled companies to marginalize workers as contractors rather than employees who would be entitled to benefits and wage protections.

What about the risks of Washington smushing their business models?

Fiverr confesses that policy changes could destroy their business model if the ability to designate their workers as contractors is banned.

The freelance model could also become less attractive if it means higher regulatory risk or even higher perceived regulatory risk.

Another stain on Fiverr’s reputation is that, like many other tech companies of its ilk, it is loss-making.

Fiverr posted a net loss for 2018 of $36.1 million, compared to a net loss of $19.3 million in the prior year.

The lack of profitability is absorbed for the ultimate goal of gouging a total addressable market within the U.S. of $100 billion.

Fiverr's $82.5 million in trailing revenue is less than a third of fellow freelance platform operator Upwork (UPWK) at $263.1 million.

Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT), ridesharing services, are considerably larger than that as Uber and Lyft command trailing top-line results of $11.8 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively.

Revenue expanded 45% last year and this year 42% annualized through the first three months of 2019.

Fiverr is growing faster than Upwork with just a 16% top-line gain in the first quarter and Uber which decelerated to a 20% increase in the same reporting period.

But all three gig-economy players still trail behind Lyft with its first-quarter revenue surge of 95%.

None of these companies are currently profitable.

Is it worth it to pay a premium for cash burners?

Fiverr, Upwork, Uber, and Lyft are fetching between six- and nine-times trailing revenue.

Fiverr shares are 50% above its IPO price after just two days of trading and is somewhat misleading but mister market is always right.

Lyft and Uber have been losers this year after going public and the jury is out to whether they are really worth a long-term duration trade.

It can be argued that Uber is a better bet long-term bet because of a bold aerial service that could eventually unlock massive value, but I would say its current model is somewhat underwhelming and could be called a fancy taxi service.

The best type of tech companies right now are software companies insulated from the turmoil of the trade war.

If you are interested in pure software companies, there are a handful of names out there that fit the bill, but if you are looking at a company attempting to crowbar itself into the idea of a software company then Fiverr is it.

That unflattering description is entirely justified as well.

Don’t forget they have real competition in the marketplace to supply freelance jobs in Upwork who has a bigger market share.

These type of broker apps do not have much pricing power and their only sell is the prospect of scaling as fast as possible meaning a volume play.

I can honestly ask, why buy Fiverr when there is a much better option out there?

The success of Fiverr is reliant on maintaining and expanding the scale of operations to generate a sufficient amount of revenue to offset the associated fixed and variable costs.

In my eyes, growing the number of users to benefit from the scale might happen after it does not exist anymore.

Investors must really ask themselves if gig workers will even be around in 8-10 years.

Why is that?

The gig economy is a battle down to zero and as tech companies become more sophisticated with expanding their artificial intelligence capabilities, it will remove the demand for gig economy taking away a huge swath of the addressable market with it.

This stock is a bet against artificial intelligence and the application of it, and if anyone has been reading this newsletter, they know it would be akin to throwing your hard-earned money down the toilet.

Specifically speaking, every cornerstone industry from national defense, consumer products, the trappings of Wall Street, industrial production, robotics, autonomous driving technology, and transportation is moving full speed ahead with implementing and harnessing artificial intelligence.

The technology isn’t quite there yet and humans are just a quick stop-gap until the optimal technology can be achieved.

Then it will be arrivederci to the human element, stripped away like my innocence in high school. 

This is a bet on the upward trajectory of gig economy workers and the fate of them and that is a bad gamble to make long-term.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/rev-competition.png 433 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-19 01:02:152019-07-23 09:01:29Freelancing to the Tune of the Gig Economy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 19, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“10 to 20 years out, driving your car will be viewed as equivalently immoral as smoking cigarettes around other people is today.” – Said American Venture Capitalist Marc Andreessen

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/andreessen.png 458 691 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-19 01:00:112019-07-23 09:01:22June 19, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 18, 2019 - MDT Alert (SNAP)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-18 13:51:282019-06-18 13:51:28June 18, 2019 - MDT Alert (SNAP)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 18, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-18 09:12:232019-06-18 09:12:23June 18, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 18, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 18, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TAKING OFF FOR THE 2019 MAD HEDGE WORLD TOUR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-18 02:04:432019-06-18 02:37:47June 18, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Taking Off for the 2019 Mad Hedge World Tour

Diary, Newsletter

Terrorist attacks, trade wars, and crashing airlines all spell one thing to me.

Travel bargains!

Of course, my first choice for a vacation destination this year was the civil war in Syria, so I could find out on the ground what is really happening out there. In addition, I could shop for a refugee camp in Jordan for one of my non-profits to help support.

Unfortunately, my family was not too hot on this idea, not wishing to buy me back from kidnappers at an inflated price, again (the last time was Cambodia in 1976).

The Joint Chiefs were not too thrilled either. At my advanced age, I simply know too much to fall into the wrong hands. They said I would last a day.

So I compromised. This summer will find me flying around the world to meet my many disparate readers. I’ll be diving on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, riding elephants near the Taj Mahal in India, and enjoying a dinner cruise on the Nile in Egypt. If you spot someone wearing a fedora hat on a gondola in Venice Italy, it’s probably me.

I’ll end up at my chalet in Zermatt, Switzerland where I traditionally restart my year. Weather permitting, I'll climb the 14,692-foot Matterhorn again. Is it seven times this year, or eight? Otherwise, I’ll rejoin Zermatt Search and Rescue again pulling lost Americans off of Alpine slopes. It seems I’m the only one up there who has a sense of humor.

To make things exciting this year, I’ll have two teenaged daughters into tow, aged 14 and 15. Who said I didn’t like challenges?

The five-star hotels are booked, our passports are loaded with exotic visas, and the limo is waiting outside. The Cessna is fully fueled, and the flight plan filed.

I have worked the hardest in my life the past year, and it is time for a break. I have also put myself through the most grueling training regimen ever, hiking 2,000 miles in torrential rains and snowshoeing another 600, all with a 60-pound pack.

Every year it seems to get harder to keep the calendar at bay.

Along the way I will be meeting with other hedge fund managers, senior government officials, CEOs at major banks and Fortune 500 companies, large institutional investors, and a Nobel Prize winner or two.

Getting out into the real world and soaking up new data and opinions is invaluable in shaping my own global view, and your performance benefits from it.

Since I don’t stumble across these people in my living room, I have to travel the world and seek them out. You can soak up all the online data you want, but nothing beats contact with the real world.
 
I will be traveling with my laptop and keeping touch with the markets. While 18th century Internet service is passable, the bandwidth can be snail-like. So, unless I see something extraordinary, I will cut back on new Trade Alerts.

After running up a 315% return in nine and a half years and beating 99.9% of the hedge funds in the industry, I deserve a break. I need to spend some time alone on a mountaintop, communing with the spirits, attempting to discover the new long-term market trends through the mist.

While on the road, I will continue writing my newsletter, giving you my daily dose of market insight. I will also be re-running some of my favorite research pieces from the past when my travel schedule does not allow Internet access.

This is to expose my thousands of new subscribers to the golden oldies and to remind the legacy readers who have since forgotten them.

I will be back in San Francisco in early August, glued to my screens once again for another year of toil in the salt mines. In the meantime, please feel free to email me.

Mad Hedge Technology Letter author Arthur Henry and Mad Day Trader Bill Davis will be working straight through the summer. No rest for the wicked!

In the meantime, I shall be raising a glass to all of you at dinner, the loyal readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Salute! Prost! Kampai, and Cheers! Thanks for making this letter a huge success!

If you want to take the opportunity to meet me in person, please find my strategy luncheon schedule below. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store here and click on “LUNCHEONS”, and select the country and city of your choice.

Friday, June 21 12:30 PM Auckland, New Zealand
Monday, June 24 12:30 PM Melbourne, Australia
Tuesday, June 25 12:30 PM Sydney, Australia
Wednesday, June 26 12:30 PM Brisbane, Australia
Friday, June 28 12:30 PM Perth, Australia
Sunday, June 30 12:30 PM Manila, Philippines
Tuesday, July 2 12:30 PM New Delhi, India
Friday, July 5 12:30 PM Cairo, Egypt
Monday, July 8 12:30 PM Venice, Italy
Wednesday, July 10 12:30 PM Budapest, Hungary
Friday, July 19, 3:00 PM Zermatt, Switzerland

I look forward to seeing you there, and thanks for supporting my research.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/world-tour-map.png 579 897 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-18 02:02:512019-07-19 18:16:33Taking Off for the 2019 Mad Hedge World Tour
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 09:02:352019-06-17 09:02:35June 17, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE FLIGHT PATH OF UBER)
(UBER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 08:04:322019-07-19 18:14:06June 17, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Flight Path of Uber

Tech Letter

If you want a bull out of the gate type technology stock, those are few and far between at this point in the late economic cycle.

There's another deep-lying value out there and a company who promises the stars and the moon is Uber who announced some eye-opening developments.

Uber Elevate, a division of Uber developing urban flight ridesharing, will have to hold on to its ridesharing business serviced by combustion engine-based cars for quite a while before the company can literally take flight.

This is the type of investment that used to only be reserved for venture capitalists, but Uber going public has given the average American a chance at staking out and holding one of the most controversial yet forward-thinking tech companies in the world.

If Uber can get this up and running, the underlying stock promises to become a ten bagger.

The United States-based subsidiary of the Embraer, EmbraerX, focuses on the development of disruptive businesses.

EmbraerX fundamental pillar is the formation of the future experience of air transport users.

Last week turned heads by debuting a small electric-powered vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle that should transform the future for Uber and other ridesharing companies.

The annual Uber Elevate conference in Washington, D.C. offered a glimmer of hope for Uber Elevate, the company is hellbent on realizing the holy grail of ridesharing transport transforming into autonomous flying vehicles.

A business model concocted with this input would pay dividends for a company who is doling out subsidies to gas-guzzling drivers on the road to service.

Yes, this is the future, but the future is here sooner than you think.

The EmbraerX eVTOL will only be able to handle a few passengers from the get-go.

Unfortunately, autonomous piloting will integrate into the process slowly.

The goal is for the vehicle to be absolutely autonomous according to the manufacturer aligning with Uber’s much-prophesized aim of going fully autonomous.

Dreams aside, there appear to be many technical issues with executing this transformation such as how will a new generation of flying Ubers prevent nonstop collisions above a city?

Uber has buddied up with an army of air traffic controllers, academics, pilots and industry experts to study this issue, while EmbraerX has proposed a pragmatic, simple and robust urban air space design to allow more aircraft to operate in urban environments.

Uber’s flying division plans on rolling out their service by 2023 which is an ambitious target, to say the least.

EmbraerX is partnering up with Uber to try and make this happen.

The locations of Los Angeles and Dallas have been pinpointed as places they plan to demonstrate flight capabilities next year.

The timeline is excruciating tight if Uber plans to get all their ducks in a row and make this a reality.

Uber has toyed with other launch locations such as Brazil, France, and India.

Other aircraft manufacturers are in the mix as well allowing Uber to diversify the risk in case EmbraerX can’t deliver the goods.

Similar air products are being crafted by Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing subsidiary, Bell and Karen Aircraft, and a Slovenian manufacturer named Pipistrel Vertical Solutions.

The entire premise behind the aerial ridesharing involves delivering a network of airports.

It will not morph into a door to-door service because a lack of capabilities on last mile deliverability that gas-based cars possess.

The concept of skyports or skystations have been bandied around and will theoretically force passengers to find their way to these launch stations to take advantage of aerial capabilities.

Uber could deliver a 2-1 service with road-based cars delivering the passengers to the sky stations all through the Uber app and a receiving a windfall of 100% of the transport revenues.

Uber is collaborating with renowned architectural and engineering firms on that piece of the project to solve complex challenges.

The sky stations must be built around commercial and retail hubs making this problem even more frustrating because the lack of infrastructure and crowded nature of these tight spaces means this project absolutely cannot fail.

Can you imagine a failed blighted sky port hanging above the retail and tourist mecca of Times Square in Manhattan?

Then there is the issue of these sky ports being monumental eye sores ruining picturesque skylines that many people hold dear to their heart.

The San Francisco skyline and the property owners with panoramic views would lose enormous property value if they were holed up next to an Uber aerial flight route.

The company has brainstormed around building on top of existing under-utilized urban structures like parking garages or even big box malls.

Some of the designers see them as providing not just takeoff and landing platforms for eVTOL vehicles, but an all-inclusive mix of retail, entertainment, and commercial with fitness clubs, supermarkets, and fine dining integrated into the concept similar to Tokyo subway stations.

In terms of time, the benefits would be compelling with flights able to cut commutes down from 2 hours to 15 minutes.

This type of time savings is applicable to megacities such as New York and the San Francisco Bay Area where many employees reside in outer suburbs to only commute into the heart of the city with their cars.

Shared flights would mitigate traffic on the ground giving a 3D solution to the massive traffic problem megacities face.

Meanwhile, as a way of dipping its toe into the waters of urban aerial transportation, Uber is due to launch a new service in New York City on July 9 that relies on an existing technology: helicopters.

The new Uber Copter service is by way of the Uber app allowing customers to call for helicopter rides between lower Manhattan and JFK Airport, pegged at a price of about $250 per person.

Times will be reserved for the afternoon rush hours on weekdays – and only for Platinum and Diamond members of the Uber Rewards loyalty program.

Newark-based HeliFlite will operate this part of Uber offering 5 seats per helicopter.

This test roll-out will give Uber valuable insight into the pitfalls of running an aerial transport network and long-term feasibility of it.

What does this mean for Uber?

Part of accessing the public markets was to supercharge their Uber Elevate division.

It is happening.

The company will be able to access the debt market to fund its deep-lying value divisions much like Google’s autonomous driving division Waymo has been financed by its parent company Alphabet.

Regulatory headwinds still represent a doozy of a thorn in its side.

There is a real chance of Uber Elevate being ready before the government is ready to allow them to flood the sky with aircrafts, and a 2-year delay suddenly grounding the planes with shareholders footing the costs will sap the momentum.

Facebook has grown uncontrollably for over a decade and the government still can’t get their finger out and figure out what to do.

A decade hiatus would be catastrophic for Uber Elevate as flight crashes have a more graphic consequence than personal data being hijacked. 

I give Uber a 40% chance of creating a full-fledged, up and running aerial ridesharing service by 2023.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/uber-tech.png 397 864 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 08:02:152019-07-19 18:14:30The Flight Path of Uber
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“As we move over to more of a mobile device-centric world... I think the interaction model with devices is going to be much more voice-based.” – Said CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/dara.png 410 318 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-17 08:00:332019-07-19 18:14:48June 17, 2019 - Quote of the Day
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