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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Apple Outshines the Rest

Tech Letter

I’ll give credit when credit is due.

Apple CEO Tim Cook pulled off a quarter to remember.

And yes, I’ve been hypercritical of his lack of innovation, but I can’t question the way he’s insulated the company from being exposed to softness in mainland China.

Analysts expected $88 billion in revenue and Apple easily surpassed this number by posting $91 billion.

When you look under the surface, there are usually some chinks in the armor.

But this time around Apple’s quarter was practically flawless albeit with some frosty guidance.

It’s no secret that the quality of a Chinese smartphone has picked up and now rivals some of Apple’s best products.

However, Apple turned a weakness into a strength and sales of iPhones was one of the highlights of an outstanding quarter.

In fact, it was the iPhone 11 that carried the load this time.

In total, iPhone Revenue rose 8% to almost $56 billion and they shipped 72.9 million units.

The outperformance doesn’t just end there.

Wearables have become a meaningful revenue driver in itself.

Specifically, ear buds and the Apple watch have captivated Apple customers who are scooping up these products in droves.

In the prior quarter, 75% of people who bought the Apple watch were first time buyers.

This added up to wearables clocking in $7.3 billion in revenue this past quarter.

Apple’s outperformance dovetails nicely with my overarching theme of the FANG group plus Microsoft separating themselves from the other tech companies in 2020.

The network effect that these companies possess is unrivaled and the longer they stay in business, the stronger these effects seep in.

If there was a negative part of the quarter, Tim Cook failed to delve into the new Apple streaming product and avoided giving too much detail.

Fortunately, Apple has not bet the ranch on streaming and have stuck to what they know best.

Ultimately, Cook struck a lukewarm tone, especially with the spread of China’s coronavirus threatening to shut down production operations for several manufacturers.

The company has restricted employee travel and shut one store due to the outbreak.

Looking forward, management said “there will definitely be an impact on China in terms of consumption.”

Apple is slated to release its first 5G phone later this year which has been the catalyst for the price appreciation in shares.

Apple continues to be a multiprong revenue machine and any dip should be bought.

This is the type of company that should be part of any multi-asset portfolio.

January 31, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-31 04:02:322020-05-11 13:09:32Apple Outshines the Rest
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Learning the Art of Risk Control

Diary, Newsletter

Now that you know how to make money in the options market, I’m going to teach you how to hang on to it. There is no point in booking winning trades only to lose the money by making careless mistakes. So today, I am going to talk about risk control.

The first goal of risk control is to conserve whatever capital you have. I tell people that I am too old to start over again as a junior trader if I lose all my money. So, I’m pretty careful when it comes to risk control.

The art of risk control is to make sure your portfolio is profitable, no matter what happens to the market. You want to be a winner, whether the market goes up, down, or sideways.

Remember, we are not trying to beat an index here. Our goal is the make actual dollars at all times, to keep the P&L chart always moving from the lower left to the upper right. You can’t eat relative performance, nor can you use it to pay your bills.

The second goal of a portfolio manager is to make your portfolio bombproof. You never know when a flock of black swans is about to alight on the market, or a geopolitical shock comes out of the blue causing markets to crash.

The biggest mistake I see beginning traders make is that they are in too much of a hurry to get rich. As a result, they lose too much money too soon. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard of first-time traders losing all their money on their first trade, well before they got a handle on the basics.

I’m usually right 80% to 90% of the time. That means I’m wrong 10% to 20% of the time. If you bet the ranch on one of my losing trades, you’ll get taken to the cleaners. Never bet the ranch.

If you do, you are turning calculated risk into random risk. It is akin to buying a lottery ticket. I often tell clients they have gambling addictions. Make sure you’re not one of them. You can’ trade yourself back from zero with no money.

If you can master the skills which I am teaching you, you can make a living at this FOREVER! So, what’s the hurry? As my old trading mentor used to tell me, the Late Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley, “invest in haste, repent in leisure,” a time-tested nostrum in this business.

I recommend that you use NO real money on your first few trades. Start with paper trading only. All of the online trading platforms offer wonderful tools that allow you to practice trading before you try the real thing. If you lose your “pretend money”, no harm, no foul. They don’t want you to go broke either. Broke customers don’t pay commissions.

The more time you spend learning trading, the more money you will get out of it. Remember, work in, money out. Spend at least an hour or two getting to know your own trading platform well.

Once you start trading with real money, it will become a totally different experience. Your heart rate steps up. Your hands get sweaty. You start checking your watch. It’s a lot like going into combat. In fact, combat veterans make great traders, which is why the military recruits so actively from the military. I think all these instincts trace back to our Neanderthal days when our main concern was being chased by a saber-tooth tiger.

The time to learn a trading discipline is NOW. All of a sudden, your opinions, your ego, and your savings are on the line. It’s crucial for you to always start small when using real money.

That way, making a beginner’s mistake, like confusing “BUY” and “SELL” (I see it every day) will only cost you a cup of coffee at Starbucks, and bet your kids’ college education, your house, or your retirement. It won’t take long for you to grow from one contract to thousands, as I have done myself for many years.

It’s all about finding your comfort level and risk tolerance. You never want to have a position that is so large that you can’t sleep at night, or worse, call me in the middle of the night. My answer is always the same. Cut your position in half. If you still can’t sleep, cut it in half again.

I make a bold prediction here. The more experience you gain, the faster your risk tolerance goes up.

I’ll give you one more piece of advice. Take your broker’s technical support phone number and paste it to the top of your computer monitor. You don’t want to go looking for it when you can’t figure out how to get out of a position, or your platform breaks. These are machines. It happens. As they teach in flight school, it’s not a matter of if, but when, a machine breaks.

There’s one more thing. When you’re ready to commit real money, don’t forget to take your account off of paper trading. The profits you make can’t be spent.

Risk management is an important part of the position sheet I will be sending you every day.

Take a look below at my recent position sheet I sent out during sharply rising markets, which I update every day.

The important thing to look at here is my long/short balance. On the left is the position name and on the right is the position weighting. I usually run 10% positions so I don’t have all my eggs in one basket. Maybe twice a year, I’ll run a 20% position in a single stock, and once a year I’ll have a 30% weighting. Above that, I start to lose sleep.

I have further subdivided the portfolio into “RISK ON” and “RISK OFF.” “RISK ON” means the world is getting better, while “RISK OFF” means the world is getting worse. The long positions have positive numbers, while the short positions have negative ones.

I like to balance “RISK ON” and “RISK OFF” to remove overall market risk from the portfolio. When markets are rising, I tilt positive. When markets are falling, I tilt negative. At the bottom I have my total net exposure. On this particular day, I was running 60% in longs and 20% in shorts, for a total net position of 40% long. This is an aggressively bullish portfolio.

When I’m bullish, the net position is positive. When I’m bearish the net position is negative. When I have no strong views, the net position is zero. That way, if nothing happens you still get to rake the money in.

I have no positions at all only a few days a year. I only play when the risk/reward is overwhelmingly in my favor, and sometimes that is just not possible.

One more warning to the wise. There are literally hundreds of gurus out there, marketing services promising 100% a year, if not a 100% a month, or even 100% a day. They are all fake, created by 20-year-old marketing types who have never worked in the stock market, or even traded. Unfortunately, I work in an industry where almost everyone else is a crook.

I have worked in the markets for more than 50 years and have seen everything. Ray Dalio is the top-performing hedge fund manager in history and he only averages 35% a year.  The number of real traders who are right more than 80% of the time you can almost count on one hand. If returns sound too good to be true, they never are.

I want to offer special caution about naked put-shorting strategies which are promoted by 90% of these letters. This is where a trader sells short a put position without any accompanying hedge, hence the word “naked.” This is an unlimited risk position.

You might take in a $1 of premium with this approach, but if the market turns against you, and implied volatilities go through the roof, your losses could balloon exponentially to $100 or more, wiping you out. The newsletters recommending these have absolutely no idea when or if this is going to happen.

I call this the “picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller strategy.” No professional trader worth his salt will put money into it. It is banned by most investing institutions. And only a few brokers will still let you do this, and then only with 100% margin requirements because when losses exceed 100% of capital, they’re left carrying the bag.

Many of those strategies you see being hawked online look great on paper but can’t actually be executed. In other words, you just paid thousands of dollars for a service that is utterly useless. Sounds like a “No Go” to me.

Stop losses are an important part of any trading strategy.  No one is right 100% of the time. If they claim so, they are lying. The best way to avoid a big loss is to take a small one.

There are many possible places to use stop losses. I use 2% of my total capital. If I start to lose more than that, I am out of there. It’s easy for me to do this because 90% of the time, the next trade will be a winner and I’ll make back all the money I just lost.

Others use a 10% decline in the underlying stock as a good arbitrary point to limit loses. Others rely on Fibonacci levels (I’ll get to him later). Many traders rely on key moving averages, like the 50-Day or the 200-day.

The problem with this is that high-frequency traders have access to the same charting data as you do. They’ll program their algorithms to quickly take a stock through your stop loss level, buy your stock for cheap, and then take it right back up again to book a quick profit. You are left with a “SELL” confirmation in your inbox and no position in a rising market. No wonder people think Wall Street is rigged.

Another concept is the “trailing stop”. That’s when after an initial rise, you place a stop-loss order at your cost. That way you CAN’T lose money. This is known as “playing with the house’s money.” This approach has one shortfall. You can’t place stop losses in the options market that are executed automatically. The same is true for options spreads.

In this case, you use what is known as a “pocket stop-loss” where you set your own mental level on when to get out. Also, these are not automatic, they do establish a trading discipline. Caution: You can’t execute a pocket stop loss when you’re playing golf or on a one-week cruise in the Caribbean.

So, there you have it. By managing your risk prudently, you can tip the risk/reward balance in your favor.

I hope this helps.

January 31, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-31 04:02:242020-05-11 14:15:38Learning the Art of Risk Control
MHFTR

January 30, 2020 – Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“In the US you, had ten bad years in a row (during the Great Depression) and it still turned out to be a pretty good century,” said Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Elderly Couple

January 30, 2020/by MHFTR
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Elderly-Couple-e1454679643536.jpg 180 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2020-01-30 04:00:402020-01-29 20:47:13January 30, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The New Normal for the Internet

Tech Letter

Russia can now “unplug” from the internet, is this a sign of things to come?

Since 2010, the internet has become the de-facto global cock pit.  

A breaking up of the internet is heavily negative for American tech companies who vie for overseas revenue.

The more unified the internet is, the easier and more cost effective it is to scale up a business and sell software and hardware to the customer.

The advent of the Russian intranet could lay the groundwork for other sovereign nations to build their own version of an intranet.

This could lock out foreign companies from doing business or only allow them access if they play by unfair rules.

There is also the dual objective of keeping close tabs on local dissidents and controlling the media which countries like Iran have found convenient and mightily effective. 

The internet is not a simple place anymore.

Cross border digital transactions and cooperation of it is diminishing at a rapid pace.

Take for instance Russia’s third-largest internet company Rambler which sued Amazon-owned Twitch platform for 180 billion rubles ($2.87 billion) over illegal streams of soccer matches from the English Premier League.

Russia is the third-largest user of Twitch worldwide which could eventually lead to a ban of the service.

Where does this eventually stop?

Next on the chopping block could be Google search and then YouTube.

Many of these free services make money by serving up ads and revenue would be seriously hit if a wide swath of usership are taken offline.

The announcement merely noted that Russia successfully tested a country-wide alternative to the global internet, but the devil is usually in the details.

Either way, pulling out the rug from underneath Russian netizens is a serious option for the Kremlin.

The results will now head to the higher ups to conclude when and how the new Russian intranet will be implemented.

There are still loose ends that Russia needs to sort out like integrating a separate DNS system.

A new system connecting the physical infrastructure directly to the rest, which at present must do so through international connections. And that’s just to create the basic possibility of a working Russian intranet.

Russia has taken comfort in knowing that China has its own version of the internet aptly named the Great Firewall, but China has not cut off access to abroad merely focusing on pressure points and content not supportive of its government.

Authoritarian countries want to rule with an iron fist, and this will help them do so, the added bonus is stonewalling American capitalism inside their border in digital form.

How would a domestic internet work?

By bottlenecking the points at which Russia’s version of the net connects to its global counterpart.

Domestic ISPs [internet service providers] and telcos would need to route the internet only within the digital border of Russia.

This would require close partnership with domestic ISPs which would be easy to facilitate since state-owned firms have oversized clout inside of Russia.

The more networks and connections a country has, the more difficult it is to control access.

Countries receive foreign web services via undersea cables or “nodes” – connection points at which data is transmitted to and from other countries’ communication networks.

These would need to be blocked too.

Then Russia would need to create something new from scratch.

In Iran, the National Information Network allows access to web services while policing any digital content and is operated by the state-owned Telecommunication Company of Iran.

A “walled garden” would nullify the usage of virtual private networks (VPNs).

At this point, netizens can still tap outside internet sources by connecting to different servers abroad through VPNs.

Russia already has an army of tech talent it can employ through heavyweights Yandex and Mail.Ru.

The handful of entrenched behemoths would benefit greatly from Russia shutting off itself to the outside world.

Russia has even banned the sale of smartphones that do not have Russian software pre-installed and this is just the next step.

The Russian government has had their hand in online censorship before, such as its failure to block Russians from accessing encrypted messaging app Telegram.

The state-owned Tass news agency reported the tests had assessed the vulnerability of internet-of-things (IoT) devices as we step into the era of 5G.

The cybersecurity element of this cannot be diminished, and what this tells us is that your smartphone and smart home devices aren’t safe at all.

Even though American tech companies won’t be widely affected in 2020, foreign revenue will start deteriorating in piecemeal fashion.

This will likely turn into a whack-a-mole problem with American companies hoping to plug the gaps but helpless if wide audience purges ruins numerous digital audiences.

There is a reason why YouTube isn’t successful in China and there is a reason why Mail.Ru isn’t the main internet provider in the U.S.

January 29, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/keyboard.png 297 700 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-29 10:02:402020-05-11 13:09:25The New Normal for the Internet
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 28, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 28, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD),
(AAPL)

January 28, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-28 04:04:512020-01-28 05:51:09January 28, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Play the Chinese Pandemic

Tech Letter

Am I going to rant about Peloton today?

No, I’ll save that for another day.

Let’s get straight to the chase – the epidemic from Wuhan is crushing tech stocks.  

If you want a way to play the Chinese coronavirus outbreak, then look no further than Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM).

This company owns a series of reputable Chinese travel apps from Trip.com, Skyscanner, and Ctrip.com.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter doesn’t tend to do tech alerts on Chinese companies listed in America as American depository receipts.

We rather not expose readers to the high risk of one of them suddenly being kicked off of one of the exchanges.

American investors have zero rights of recouping any losses if Alibaba or Baidu delists or even announces to switch its listing on the Shenzhen tech exchange.

Remember that founder of Alibaba Jack Ma signed over the PayPal of China Alipay to himself without even telling Yahoo about it.

Yahoo was also locked out of any profits from the decision as well even though they were seed investors in Alibaba.

That is China in a nutshell for you!

So what’s happening now? Tourists are staying home in droves and the ones that support the economy which are the Chinese ones during the peak travel season of Chinese New Year.

Cities are getting quarantined left and right in China and the mainland has ordered all travel agencies to suspend sales of domestic and international tours.

Chinese shares have felt the pain with shares of China Southern Airlines Co. – the carrier most exposed to the site of the outbreak – cratering 20% since the second death from the virus was confirmed.

If the situation unfolds like the SARS outbreak of 2003, things could turn bleak quickly.

Remember that in just one month of the SARS outbreak, Chinese air passenger traffic fell 71%, and Trip.com was rerated and has fell off the face of the earth.

I am predicting the same type of devastating numbers to the online travel world.

Trip.com has struggled to keep up with competition from digital rivals like Meituan Dianping and Alibaba, and even if the virus is conquered, business might never come back.

Despite the trade war and Hong Kong’s protests, the world has been held up by the Chinese tourist.

108.39 million Chinese overseas trips were taken last year, a 9.5% gain, after surging 11.7% in 2018.

Flight volume was brimming along nicely until the virus, but the hotel-booking sector is getting crowded.

Meituan Dianping has recently overtaken Trip.com as China’s top site, and now has 47% of China’s market, 13% higher than Trip.com.

Now, Meituan is moving further onto Trip.com’s turf with luxury hotels, while chains like Marriott International Inc. are pushing for direct booking on their China websites.

Alibaba said part of the $13 billion it raised from its Hong Kong listing in November would go toward fliggy.com, its online travel group site.

The way the Mad Hedge Technology Letter is playing the sudden drop in overseas travel confidence is through the travel app I dislike the most – TripAdvisor (TRIP).

I actually don’t have a personal problem with the functionality, but the business behind it is terrible.

That was the main reason I strapped on a put spread and I can’t see TripAdvisor outperforming dramatically in the next few weeks in the face of a global pandemic.

This was a short-term trade that TripAdvisor won’t rise 11% in 30 day

I didn’t like this company before the coronavirus and now that Chinese tourists are home sitters for the Chinese New Year, this could put a dent into TripAdvisor’s new China initiative.

Trip.com Group had taken the lead in the day-to-day running of TripAdvisor China. It owns the majority share, with TripAdvisor claiming a 40 percent stake.

Chinese were supposed to increasingly travel the world while its customer base is also becoming more global, in particularly with Trip.com and Skyscanner.

But that is all on hold now.

Yes, it is possible that there could be a dead cat bounce in shares if the virus is tamed, but the 2-week travel season is something you can’t get back once it’s over for TripAdvisor.

I believe this will come out in the numbers along with details about Google’s algorithms further destroying TripAdvisor’s relevancy in the online travel industry.

Then take into account that the company just announced a 200-employee purge for the explicit reason of increased competition from Google and things seem to be going from bad to worse.

The company has done a proverbial deal with the devil by positioning itself to be utterly tied to Google’s search algorithm while Google is going head-to-head with them.

Google has upgraded its travel search tools recently to turn the screws on several trip booking websites like TripAdvisor, Booking.com and Priceline.

In its last earnings release, TripAdvisor noted that Google has placed ads at the top of its search results, forcing companies like it to buy more ads.

The company had a rough last quarter, reporting adjusted earnings of 58 cents a share, down from 72 cents a year earlier and short of analysts’ estimates of 69 cents.

Rhetoric from management was equally as disappointing with them saying, “Google (is) pushing its own hotel products in search results and siphoning off quality traffic that would otherwise find TripAdvisor via free links and generate high margin revenue in our hotel click-based auction.”

“Google has got more aggressive. We’re not predicting that it’s going to turn around.” TripAdvisor CEO Stephen Kaufer said at the time and I don’t see how our put spread will lose money in the short-term.

I will advise readers to take profits when the time comes. Be aware that TripAdvisor also has an earnings report coming up in 2 weeks that could gyrate the stock.

I expect broad-based weakness in guidance and poor performance last quarter in the report.

January 27, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/sightseeing.png 539 974 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-27 11:02:512020-05-11 13:08:59How to Play the Chinese Pandemic
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 27, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 27, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WELCOME TO THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF OPTIONS),
(WHAT IS AN OPTION? -THE BASICS)

January 27, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-27 04:06:102020-01-27 06:23:14January 27, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Welcome to the Wonderful World of Options

Diary, Newsletter

Hi there, I’m John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Welcome to my trading desk and your new job of attaining financial independence.

The coffee machine is right over there, and the bathrooms are down the hall. Don’t let all the shouting bother you. You’ll get used to it after a while.

You’ve already made one of the best business decisions in your life, signing up for my service.  And you won’t just be joining me, but an entire community of thousands of successful traders and investors spread around the world in 137 countries.

Some of my best ideas are really coming from them. I just pass them on to you. You should have received your password and full access to my website by now.

So, get started on your homework, learn how the markets function and figure out how to trade.  Soon, you’ll have the unfair advantage in the markets that you deserve.

I have issued more than 2,000 trade alerts over the past 12 years so I have a pretty good idea what works for followers.

Every trade alert I issue gives you the choice of buying a stock, an exchange-traded fund (ETF), or an option spread.

Since we have been in a bull market for the past ten years, those who bought stock only outright made the most money. Those who used the leverage of the futures markets relied on me for their market timing and delivered the most spectacular profits, and by spectacular, I mean 1,000% in a single year.

However, those who used option spreads earned the most money with the least risk over time. I know when some of you hear the word “option,” you want to run a mile.

However, if you are willing to invest a few hours of your time learning about options, you will have a trading and investment skill that you can use for the rest of your life. And I’ll be doing the heavy lifting for you.

When you subscribed to this service you effectively added 50 years of trading experience to your own.

The good news is that options are not that hard to figure out.

If you can turn on a computer, click your mouse, and log into your online trading account, you have all the resources you need to trade options.

All you have to do is get some basic training on how to navigate the options market. Finish this two-hour course, and you will have most of what you need to know.

Better yet, if you implement the options strategies and disciplines that I will teach you, you can tilt the chance of making money overwhelmingly in your favor.

Working together is going to be fun. I have a chair right here for you, so sit down, let’s get down to it, and put on some serious money-making positions.

It Not That Hard to Figure Out

January 27, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/john-thomas-pillars.png 383 391 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-27 04:02:422020-05-11 14:15:03Welcome to the Wonderful World of Options
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT – Friday, February 7 Perth, Australia Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Perth, Australia on Friday, February 7, 2020 at 12:30 PM.

An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and a question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.

I also hope to provide some insight into America’s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Tickets are available for $235.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel in downtown Perth, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.

January 24, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/perth.png 252 422 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-24 04:06:482020-02-07 01:25:34SOLD OUT - Friday, February 7 Perth, Australia Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 22 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader January 22 Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!

Q: Are you concerned about a kitchen sink earnings report on Boeing (BA) next week?

A: No, every DAY has been a kitchen sink for Boeing for the past year! Everyone is expecting the worst, and I think we’re probably going to try to hold around the $300 level. You can’t imagine a company with more bad news than Boeing and it’s actually acting as a serious drag on the entire economy since Boeing accounts for about 3% of US GDP. If (BA) doesn’t break $300, you should buy it with both hands as all the bad news will be priced in. That’s why I am long Boeing.

Q: Do you think IBM is turning around with its latest earnings report?

A: They may be—They could have finally figured out the cloud, which they are only 20 years late getting into.  They’ve been a lagging technology stock for years. If they can figure out the cloud, then they may have a future. They obviously poured a lot into AI but have been unable to make any money off of it. Lots of PR but no profits. People are looking for cheap stuff with the market this high and (IBM) certainly qualifies.

Q: Will the travel stocks like airlines and cruise companies get hurt by the coronavirus?

A: Absolutely, yes; and you’re seeing some pretty terrible stock performance in these companies, like Delta (DAL), the cruise companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), and the transports, which have all suffered major hits.

Q: Will the Wells Fargo (WFC) shares ever rebound? They are the cheapest of the major banks.

A: Someday, but they still have major management problems to deal with, and it seems like they’re getting $100 million fines every other month. I would stay away. There are better fish to fry, even in this sector, like JP Morgan (JPM).

Q: Will a decrease in foreign direct investment hurt global growth this year?

A: For sure. The total CEO loss of confidence in the economy triggered by the trade war brought capital investment worldwide to a complete halt last year. That will likely continue this year and will keep economic growth slow. We’re right around a 2% level right now and will probably see lower this quarter once we get the next set of numbers. To see the stock market rise in the face of falling capital spending is nothing short of amazing.

Q: Do you think regulation is getting too cumbersome for corporations?

A: No, regulation is at a 20-year low for corporations, especially if you’re an oil (USO), gas (UNG) or coal producer (KOL), or in the financial industry (XLF). That’s one of the reasons that these stocks are rising as quickly as they have been. What follows a huge round of deregulation?  A financial crisis, a crashing stock market, and a huge number of bankruptcies.

 

 

 

 

January 24, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
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