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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 15, 2020 - MDT Alert (FCX)

MDT Alert

I would usually suggest holding a long stock position and short call that expires in three days, but I do not like the price action on FCX today.

Therefore, I am going to suggest you close the position.

Sell FCX at the market, which is $7.58 as I write this.

Then Buy to Close the April $7.50 call. You should be able
to close the calls for $0.25

Overall, this will result in a profit of $440 if you traded the suggested 500 share lot.

It works out to a return of 13% for 9 days.

This alert applies only if you bought the FCX stock on April 6th.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 13:58:482020-04-15 13:58:48April 15, 2020 - MDT Alert (FCX)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SDS) April 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 13:03:532020-04-15 13:03:53Trade Alert - (SDS) April 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) April 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 11:19:312020-04-15 11:21:56Trade Alert - (SPY) April 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (AAPL) April 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 11:01:372020-04-15 11:03:35Trade Alert - (AAPL) April 15, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (LYFT) April 15, 2020 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 10:13:232020-04-15 10:14:17Trade Alert - (LYFT) April 15, 2020 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 15, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 09:25:532020-04-15 09:25:53April 15, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 15, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 15, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GOODBYE TO THE OLD WORLD, HELLO TO THE NEW)
(TGT), (WMT), (ZM), (NFLX), (PYPL), (SQ), (AMZN), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 09:04:082020-04-15 08:49:40April 15, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Goodbye to the Old World, Hello to the New

Diary, Newsletter, Summary
impacts of coronavirus

With the ongoing impacts of coronavirus, our world is suddenly changing beyond all recognition.

The WWII comparisons here are valid. Just as technological innovation accelerated tenfold from 1941-1945, bringing us computers, penicillin, jet engines, and the atomic bomb, the same kind of great leaps forward are happening now.

The end result will be a faster rate of innovation and economic growth, greater corporate profits in the right industries, and a hugely performing stock market. It perfectly sets up my coming Golden Age and the next Roaring Twenties.

Living in Silicon Valley for the last 25 years, I have gotten pretty used to change. But what is happening now is mind-boggling.

The bottom line for the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic has been to greatly accelerate all existing trends. The biggest one of these has been the movement of the economy online, which has been taking place since the eighties. Except that it is now happening lightning fast. Business models are hyper-evolving.

Legacy brick and mortar companies must move online or perish, as much of the restaurant business is now doing. Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) have accomplished this. Those with feet in both worlds are closing down their physical presence and going entirely digital. Pure digital companies, like Zoom (ZM), Netflix (NFLX), PayPal (PYPL), and Square (SQ) are booming.

The side effect of the virus may be to move an even greater share of America’s business activity to the San Francisco Bay area and Seattle. Almost all tech companies here are hiring like crazy. Amazon has announced plans for hiring a staggering 175,000 since the epidemic started, as millions shift to home delivery of everything.

The productivity of tech is also growing by leaps and bounds. Since everyone is working at home, no one wastes two hours a day commuting. Meetings in person are a thing of the past. Everything now happens on Zoom.

The whole mental health industry is now conducted on Zoom. So is much of non-Corona related medicine. And I haven’t seen my accountant in years. I think he died, replaced by a younger, cheaper clone.

Even my own Boy Scout troop has gone virtual. The National Council is offering 58 online merit badges, including Railroading, Stamp Collecting, and Genealogy (click here for the full list).

The stock market has noticed and several tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon are showing positive gains for 2020. Many legacy companies see share prices still down 80% or more. Sector selection for portfolio mangers has essentially shrunk from 100 to only 2: tech/biotech and healthcare.

Business models are evolving at an astonishing rate. Who knew the yoga instructor in Chicago was much better than the one down the street, thanks to Skype.

Education is now entirely online and much of it may never go back to school. My kids are totally comfortable in this new world. They have been social distancing since I bought them their own iPhones five years ago.

Now, if I can only figure out how to do my own haircut, the third most searched term on Google. It’s longer than at any time since the summer of love in 1967.

These are just a few of the practical impacts of coronavirus. The social changes are equally eye-popping.

While death rates are soaring, crime has fallen by up to 75%. So have deaths from car accidents. Alcohol and domestic abuse have gone through the roof. Drug addiction is plummeting because dealers are afraid to go out on the street.

There are many lessons to be learned from this crash. Too many companies drank the Kool-Aid and assumed business conditions would remain perfect forever.

Let's call a spade a spade. The year 2019 and the first two months of 2020 were the bubble top. All the growth in stock prices then were pure fluff.

That means you didn’t need costly reserves ran on thin margins, borrowed like crazy at artificially low-interest rates, and kept endlessly buying back your own stock and paying generous dividends.

Manufacturers didn’t need inventories, counting on a seamless, global supply chain to keep assembly lines running. “Just in time” has switched to “just-in-case.” Companies are going to have to keep enough inventories in the warehouse to guard against future disease-driven disruptions. This will raise costs and shrink profits.

It’s really hard to see how entire industries are going to come back. Cruise ships were packing guests onboard like sardines in a can to make money. I bet it will be a while before you sit at a crowded casino blackjack table. Want to stand in line at a popular chain restaurant?

Airlines have become the poster boy for the evils of bubblicious management. They flew full most of the time, seating their customers shoulder to shoulder, yet their net profit per fight depended on selling that last economy class seat.

The industry spent $50 billion in dividends and the buyback of shares that are now largely worthless, while senior management laughed all the way to the bank. They were the only industry to actually list a global pandemic as a major risk to their business in their SEC filings.

Now they want a government bailout at your expense.

As for me, I am looking forward to this brave new world. Until then, I’ll be spending my afternoons getting in shape hiking in the High Sierras, long hair and all. I’m the only one up here. Maybe it will scare the mountain lions away.

impacts of coronavirus

 

impacts of coronavirus

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/john-hiking.png 566 418 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 09:02:522020-05-19 11:29:41Goodbye to the Old World, Hello to the New
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 15, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 15, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SOFTBANK’S CRASH AND BURN)
(SOFTBANK VISION FUND)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 08:04:062020-04-15 08:45:39April 15, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SoftBank's Crash and Burn

Tech Letter

The bizarre case of Softbank’s emperor has no clothes – its enigmatic CEO Masayoshi Son was heralded as a tech genius who planned to validate his intelligence by throwing money at budding tech companies that were supposed to deliver his investors billions in shareholder value.

It’s now Mr. Market who has the last laugh, as the infamous tech venture fund, smartly named the Vision Fund, bankrolled by Son and Middle Eastern wealth funds, took a turn for the worst with a $16.6 billion loss in the fiscal year that just ended.

Apparently, the vision fund is blind.

How bad is the situation at the “vision” fund?

A fraudulent tech company that sells shared office space owned by Softbank is now suing itself, creating a scenario where WeWork is reliant on Softbank to fund it, yet attacking the hand that is feeding it.

Presiding over a cesspool of conflict of interests, unremarkable business models, inflated egos, and botched management, the vision fund’s greatest success is overpaying for massive loss-making tech companies that sometimes weren’t even tech companies.

WeWork is the most high-profile casualty of Son’s excesses, but Oyo, the hotel sharing company, also epitomizes the state of Son’s crumbling empire.

Less than a year ago, Son publicly anointed Founder and CEO of Oyo Ritesh Agarwal one of the new up-and-coming tech innovators.

Oyo is the Uber of hotels that, through a reservation website, matches hotel units with paying customers.

Agarwal began working with small hoteliers on service, design and standardized accouterments like bedding and toiletries to draw more travelers. He took a 25% cut of sales.

The online hotel platform expanded ambitiously by recruiting hotel owners and guaranteeing a minimum amount of revenue, essentially doubling down that its online booking system and brand name would attract enough extra cash flow to sustain sales.

In the event that revenue goes to zero because of a pandemic, Oyo would incur abnormally high risk by still being on the hook for the revenue to the hotel operators.

Oyo has since gone back on its guarantee to pay guaranteed revenue streams to hotel operators alienating any potential relationships with hotels in the future.

Agarwal’s brainchild was supposedly poised to become the biggest hotel operator in the world.

Fast forward to today and the situation is nothing short of a disaster.

Oyo has called for a major restructuring, furloughing thousands of employees as it clings on for dear life.

Oyo is just another disastrous instance of the Vision Fund’s toxic array of underperforming assets.

The hotel startup was valued at $10 billion just recently and even though not a zero yet, the company has lost around 70% of its value in one month.

Complicating the pitiful situation, Agarwal borrowed $2 billion to buy back shares in his own creation speculating that Oyo would be able to offload the asset to avid investors.

Agarwal could face an imminent margin call from the banks he borrowed from, setting the stage for Son to bail out another ridiculous sideshow or let it rot like WeWork who is effectively suing Son for not following through with a $3 billion bailout that he is walking away from.

Son promised after WeWork that he wouldn’t bail out any more startups, but the issue now is that the list of eroding companies grows longer and Son’s ability to fund these decrepit companies weakens by the day as business is shut around the world and his balance sheet sours.

Just look around at the lifeless companies that have been put out of their misery such as Brandless Inc., Zume Pizza Inc., and OneWeb just filed for bankruptcy.

I double down that no tech firm will be able to go public in 2020, and the rotten apples under Son’s leadership are now being inspected for exactly how rotten each apple is.

Tech investors should take this cue to find higher ground in the form of iron-clad balance sheets, positive cash flow, and unmistakable intellectual property.

If you can slip in a recurring subscription model in the equation, then that is the cherry on top of the chocolate sundae.

Park money in the corona tech stocks of DocuSign (DOCU), Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT), then grab some popcorn to watch how Son’s portfolio blows up in dramatic fashion.

softbank

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/oyo.png 525 870 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-04-15 08:02:462020-05-19 11:33:36SoftBank's Crash and Burn
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