“These companies as they exist today have monopoly power. Some need to be broken up, all need to be properly regulated and held accountable.” – Said U.S. Representative David Cicilline
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
July 31, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LEARNING THE ART OF RISK CONTROL)
I would like to make a suggestion on a debit spread and the stock is Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS).
CTXS reported on the 23rd with an earnings beat, so we do have to be concerned with an earnings release.
CTXS is trading around $140 as I write this.
My suggestion is to trade the August monthly options that expire on August 21st.
This gives the stock about two weeks to make a move.
Here is how you open the position:
Buy to Open August 21st - $140.00 Call for $4.50
Sell to Open August 21st - $145.00 Call for $2.20
The net debit will be $2.30 per spread.
Based on the tracking portfolio, I suggest you limit the trade to a 5 lot or 1.1% of the portfolio.
The maximum gain on a five lot would be $1,080.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 30, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ABBVIE'S UNEXPECTED UPSIDES)
(ABBV), (GMAB), (REGN)
After going through what could arguably be described as one of the most promising quarterly stock market performances in the past 10 years, the horrific stock market crash at the beginning of 2020 feels like a distant memory.
With the revival of the financial sector, people now will not stop complaining about exorbitant market valuations.
Despite that, not all stocks are offered at premium prices. There are several companies that remain at relatively bargain prices regardless of the encouraging market revival in the past months.
A stock that falls under this category is AbbVie (ABBV).
In the past three months, AbbVie shares jumped by over 20%. Even so, this biotechnology and healthcare stock remains unreasonably cheap, only trading at roughly 10 times its expected earnings.
Looking at the company’s profile, investors appear to shun AbbVie shares out of fear stemming from the looming US patent exclusivity loss for its highest selling rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira by 2023.
While the reality is that Humira will soon face biosimilar competition, the sales for AbbVie’s cash cow remain impressive.
In the first quarter of 2020, Humira generated $3.7 billion in revenue in the US alone, showing off a 13.7% climb year-over-year.
However, AbbVie is not twiddling its thumbs, waiting for the Humira patent exclusivity to expire in the next 3 years.
Instead, the Illinois-based company has been busy developing its next blockbuster products.
The frontrunners in AbbVie’s lineup are leukemia and lymphoma drugs Venclexta and Imbruvica.
The two generated a total of approximately $5.5 billion in annual revenues in 2019 – and 2020 is projected to record a strong double-digit growth.
In the first quarter of this year alone, Venclexta and Imbruvica raked in a total of $1.5 billion in global sales or a 32% year-over-year increase.
Still, AbbVie’s oncology franchise has yet to stop growing.
Riding the momentum of its cancer research expansion, AbbVie also recently established a partnership with Denmark’s GenMab (GMAB).
The goal is to come up with 3 anticancer antibodies, which will ultimately be able to attack cancer cells without damaging the normal and healthy ones.
If the programs succeed, AbbVie will pay $3.15 billion. This is on top of the $750 million it already offered upfront to GenMab.
However, the biggest move AbbVie made in an effort to lessen the top-line exposure to Humira is its acquisition of Allergan.
AbbVie is projected to collect over $2 billion in savings annually within 3 years since this $63 billion acquisition.
This will translate to roughly $1 per share, with 2021 earnings per share hitting $11.80 compared to $10.25 estimated in 2020.
More importantly, AbbVie gains access to Allergan’s crown jewel Botox.
While this drug is commonly known as a cosmetic procedure treatment, it can also be used to treat a wide range of medical conditions.
Just this July, Allergan received FDA approval to expand the use of Botox to cover some pediatric patients including those with cerebral palsy.
Aside from Botox, AbbVie also picked up a couple of exciting products like antipsychotic drug Vraylar.
On top of the drugs from its Allergan acquisition, AbbVie has been developing new-generation autoimmune treatments.
Two of these products, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, are expected to generate $20 billion in annual sales – a number comparable to Humira’s record.
In fact, Rinvoq is anticipated to transform into an aggressive rival of Regeneron’s (REGN) very own cash cow, atopic dermatitis drug Dupixent.
One advantage of Rinvoq over Dupixent is that AbbVie’s drug comes in the form of a pill while Regeneron’s product is an injection. This easily makes Rinvoq the more convenient option.
Even if Rinvoq fails to take away from Dupixent’s market share, the AbbVie drug can still benefit from the same group. After all, there are at least 10% to 25% of the patient pool who are unresponsive to Regeneron’s product.
That means AbbVie could earn roughly $340 million at a minimum after 2 years of its Rinvoq launch.
On the COVID-19 front, AbbVie attracted attention when its cholesterol drug Tricor was found to be effective in fighting SARS-CoV2.
There’s still no conclusive data, but the optimism was spurred when scientists at the Hebrew University in Israel and New York’s Mount Sinai Medical Center claimed that Tricor could potentially downgrade the deadly virus into “nothing worse than a common cold.”
Thanks to the promising results, the researchers will advance Tricor into animal studies.
The hope is that the drug can eventually be included in the list of treatments fast-tracked by the FDA both in the US and Israel.
Apart from that, AbbVie’s HIV treatment Kaletra has been used in China as another form of COVID-19 treatment.
Overall, AbbVie is a great pick among income-seeking investors. It offers a high yield, a promising pipeline and approved products, and a low payout ratio.
AbbVie generated $8.6 billion in revenue during the quarter that threatened to push the world into a recession, demonstrating a 10.1% increase from the same period in 2019. In terms of earnings per share, AbbVie recorded $2.02 in the said period compared to the $1.65 last year.
Global Market Comments
July 30, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO EXECUTE A MAD HEDGE TRADE ALERT)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 29, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER DIGITAL GOLD RUSH?),
(BITCOIN)
Here we go again.
The Bitcoin bulls have crashed the party and they have good reason to celebrate as the so-called digital gold surged from its nadir of $3,715 in January 2019 to over the $11,000 mark today.
The currency was in the doldrums after the crash from $20,000 with many investors left holding the bag.
The Mad Technology Letter doesn’t often foray into the speculation of Bitcoin, predominantly because the asset is untethered to fundamentals, but the price action of late has made us take notice.
There has been resistance at the $10,000 mark and $10,500 mark. Blowing through this resistance signals that Bitcoin could be in for a sustained rally.
What is moving the digital gold?
The gyrations in the digital currency come as gold prices have surged amid a mad migration for assets that are considered alternatives to cash and stocks fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic that has driven much of the developed world into a deep recession.
Gold hasn’t been this high since 9/11 and it’s on the verge of surging past the $2,000 mark.
Prices for gold and bitcoin have climbed as a gauge of the U.S. dollar hit its weakest level since 2018 and the dollar is at a 9-month low.
Not only has the virus dampened sentiment around the global economy, but the insane spending by governments to help prop up economies battered by pandemic has supported bullion prices.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and the GOP are in the works to push through yet another massive stimulus and who knows what is after that.
Bitcoin has benefited from the knock-on effects of gold being a safe haven trade.
The fact is that Bitcoin shares gold’s key characteristics of being a store of value and scarcity— and could potentially knock gold off from its perch in the future as the world becomes ever more tech-driven.
Bitcoin is also thriving as it updates itself.
Bitcoin has much more intrinsic value today than it did a year ago just from an infrastructure perspective.
The Lightning network is working, sidechains are working. The currency is just a lot more rock-solid foundationally that it has ever been.
Security has always been a black eye for this asset class and rightly so as who would want their digital fortune pickpocketed by a hacker.
The Lightning network is a second-layer technology for bitcoin that scales the blockchain’s ability to conduct transactions and it is facilitating the ability to operate the network smoothly.
It’s more than just increasing capacity driving the surge in investor interest and prices.
The supply of available bitcoin continues to shrink — a function of the halving of coins in circulation which happened earlier this year.
Another x-factor will be the continuing adoption of financial institutions using bitcoin.
This offers investors more confidence in the security and fungibility of the assets.
Many experts forecasted the digital currency to surge in the third quarter or early fourth quarter solely based on the enhanced infrastructure to support transactions and activity on the blockchain.
A reaction to the halving of currency in circulation was also another inflator.
The coronavirus was just the supercharger to the equation.
With legitimate institutions holding bitcoin for customers, the average person will begin to feel more secure dabbling in Bitcoin, and this will support wide-scale adoption and acceptance of the digital gold.
No doubt that the concept of Bitcoin is hampered by this cult of life characters that go on air to try to bid up the currency saying their yearend targets are $30,000.
The overhyping of Bitcoin is something of an eyesore, but I can definitely vouch for the increasing relative legitimacy of Bitcoin and this asset class is not going away.
There certainly is a case for Bitcoin to go to $15,000 and $20,000 if a much predicted “second wave” hits this fall in large swaths of the world forcing developed governments into yet another stimulus package.
Once Brazilians, Russians, and Americans take their late European summer vacations, it’s hard to not see another lockdown in Europe.
Many investors can observe numerous governments just not having their act together feeding into the Bitcoin narrative and honestly contributing to its legitimacy as well.
It’s hard to remember when faith in certain governments was lower.
I don’t advocate pouring one’s life savings into Bitcoin though, it’s just too untested and needs to prove itself more as a financial asset.
If technology and the digital revolution is the story to believe in, then invest in a Nasdaq exchange listed fintech company.
These platforms offer Bitcoin to customers for purchase as well and are the growth companies that many tech investors dream of.
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