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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Corporatization of Bitcoin

Tech Letter

Bitcoin (BTC) is going corporate and that is great for the digital currency and the stock market.

That is the big takeaway from Tesla (TSLA) investing $1.5 billion into the cryptocurrency and announcing that Tesla lovers will be able to buy the car with the digital gold.

Hard to believe that Bitcoin has come so far so fast, but with governments doing their best to cultivate fiscal distrust along with a pandemic driving the entire global business world to the internet, Bitcoin is well placed to reap the benefits just like digital cloud companies.

The big question is what is next for the computer gold?

This could open the floodgates for the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, and Amazon to join the bitcoin party by making their own investments into the industry.

This could come in the form of just dipping their toe by holding bitcoin reserves or buying a fintech company that facilitates the operations of it.

Have you noticed that as of late, fintech companies like PayPal and Square have broken out to the upside representing a proxy of bitcoin exuberance?

No doubt some of the established tech titans are taking note of Elon Musk’s plunge into the digital unknown, but it does send the message the next leg up in tech development is via bitcoin and the synergies surrounding it.  

Apple was the one that, out of thin air, brought us the iPod and iPhone which spawned a million copycats from China and a tsunami of capital that came along with it.

It’s undeniable that bitcoin is picking up traction with recent news in October 2020 that Square invested $50 million into Bitcoin.

That was about 1% of the company’s total assets at the end of Q2 2020.

That move came after the Cash app had offered the ability to buy Bitcoin for several years.

2020 also saw more traditional veteran investors like Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones become Bitcoin promoters.

Long-term investment analysts have determined that today, bitcoin gives corporations a foothold into the future while operating in the real world.

Asset preservation is also another phenomenon where many insiders believe that the value of the dollar is in slow decline which could hurt U.S. corporation’s ability to compete globally.

Bitcoin bulls believe more institutional investments will lead to more stability and naturally, increased value and I agree that is exactly what is happening no matter if Warren Buffet and his sort go on air to proclaim the asset is snake oil.

It’s getting to the point where large companies cannot deny the potential upside to bitcoin because of fear of missing out.

They do not want to be the new Blackberry to the Apple’s iPhone.

Then is the brute fact that the aforementioned tech giants have the resources to take the jump.

Ark Investments sees Bitcoin growing to $70,000 per coin if US companies put 1% into it, and $400,000 a coin if companies put 10% into the cryptocurrency.

If bitcoin finally becomes convertible globally, US companies will be tearing their hair out because they missed the chance to get in at a cheaper price.

What I just said would be absolutely bonkers in the financial world before the pandemic, but that shows how much the narrative has moved along and there are even more outlandish analysts who believe the likes of Apple and Amazon should move 50% of total assets into bitcoin.

Apple does have Apple Pay which they could integrate with the digital currency much like Square and PayPal have done.

If Tesla invested 1% of total assets into bitcoin and if a solid case nudging other companies to outdo this 1% and go to 2-3% comes to realization even if it’s a speculative bet on the future appreciation of the asset, it could be a moneymaker.

A company like Apple currently has $207 billion and so the pieces are on the board to make a bold move if they are willing to do so.

If we stand back and look at the bigger picture, US companies will undoubtedly lead the digital currency revolution for the next 25 years.

Europe is too regulated for their companies to jump in and Chinese authorities will stop companies like Alibaba hoping to operate in a currency that isn’t the Renminbi.

Like US companies created the cloud, internet, personal computer, and so on, they are on the cusp of making the bitcoin industry their own.

Another strong aspect I love is that Elon Musk clearly felt comfortable with the bitcoin’s foundational security, infrastructure and mechanisms in place in 2021 to facilitate this deal.

I am convinced that he had his best developers go into the meat and bones of the technology to find any structural flaws or lack of them.

Remember that bitcoin has been dogged by security breaches and hackers.

There is so much to love about this move and long term, bitcoin will hit $100,000.

bitcoin

 

bitcoin

 

bitcoin

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/investment-impact.png 616 820 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 12:02:442021-02-14 15:16:49The Corporatization of Bitcoin
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 10, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“It's better to be a pirate than to join the Navy.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/steve-jobs.png 272 206 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 12:00:162021-02-10 12:37:41February 10, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (DOCU) February 10, 2021 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 10:46:132021-02-10 10:46:13Trade Alert - (DOCU) February 10, 2021 - STOP LOSS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 10, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GET READY TO TAKE A LEAP BACK INTO LEAPS),
(AAPL), (BRK/B)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 10:06:512021-02-10 12:32:37February 10, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into LEAPS

Diary, Newsletter

Just as every cloud has a silver lining, every stock market crash offers generational opportunities.

In a month or two, there will be spectacular trades to be had with LEAPS. What are LEAPS, you may ask?

This is the best strategy with which to cash in on the gigantic market swoons, which have become a regular feature of our markets.

Since the advent of the recent incredible market volatility, I have been asked one question.

What do you think about LEAPS?

LEAPS, or Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities, are just a fancy name for a stock option spread with a maturity of more than one year.

You execute orders for these securities on your options online trading platform, pay options commissions, and endure option like volatility.

Another way of describing LEAPS is that they offer a way to rent stocks instead of buying them, with the prospect of enjoying years’ worth of stock gains for a fraction of the price.

While these are highly leveraged instruments, you can’t lose any more money than you put into them. Your risk is well defined.

And there are many companies in the market where LEAPs are a very good idea, especially on those gut-wrenching 1,000 point down days.

Interested?

Currently, LEAPS are listed all the way out until August 2023.

However, the further expiration dates will have far less liquidity than near month options, so they are not a great short-term trading vehicle. That is why limit orders in LEAPS, as opposed to market orders, are crucial.

These are really for your buy-and-forget investment portfolio, defined benefit plan, 401k, or IRA.

Because of the long maturities, premiums can be enormous. However, there is more than one way to skin a cat, and the profit opportunities here can be astronomical.

Like all options contracts, a LEAP gives its owner the right to "exercise" the option to buy or sell 100 shares of stock at a set price for a given time.

LEAPS have been around since 1990, and trade on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

To participate, you need an options account with a brokerage house, an easy process that mainly involves acknowledging the risk disclosures that no one ever reads.

If a LEAP expires "out-of-the-money" – when exercising, you can lose all the money that was spent on the premium to buy it. There's no toughing it out waiting for a recovery, as with actual shares of stock. Poof and your money is gone.

LEAPS are also offered on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track indices like the Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), so you could bet on up or down moves of the broad market.

Not all stocks have options, and not all stocks with ordinary options also offer LEAPS.

Note that a LEAPS owner does not vote proxies or receive dividends because the underlying stock is owned by the seller, or "writer," of the LEAP contract until the LEAP owner exercises.

Despite the Wild West image of options, LEAPS are actually ideal for the right type of conservative investor.

They offer more margin and more efficient use of capital than traditional broker margin accounts. And you don’t have to pay the usurious interest rates that margin accounts usually charge.

And for a moderate increase in risk, they present outsized profit opportunities.

For the right investor, they are the ideal instrument.

Let me go through some examples to show you their inner beauty.

By now, you should all know what vertical bull call spreads are. If you don’t, then please click here for a quickie video tutorial (you must be logged in to your account).

Let’s go back to February 9, 2018 when the Dow Average plunged to its 23,800 low for the year. I then begged you to buy the Apple (AAPL) June 2018 $130-$140 call spread at $8.10, which most of you did. A month later, that position is worth $9.40, up some 16.04%. Not bad.

Now let’s say that instead of buying a spread four months out, you went for the full year and three months, to June 2019.

That identical (AAPL) $130-$140 would have cost $5.50 on February 9. The spread would be worth $9.40 today, up 70.90%, and worth $10 on June 21, 2019, up 81.81%.

So, by holding a 15 month to expiration position for only a month, you get to collect 86.67% of the maximum potential profit of the position.

So, now you know why we leap into LEAPS.

When the meltdown comes, and that could be as soon as today, use this strategy to jump into longer term positions in the names we have been recommending and you should be able to retire early.

What’s out there today?

 Take a look at Berkshire Hathaway “B” shares (BRK/B), one of the best plays on boring old high cash flow domestic cyclical stocks. It has a very heavy weighting in banks and has a 10% holding in Apple (AAPL) as a kicker.

Today, (BRK/B) shares were trading at $240. Let say that Berkshire shares recover to $290 by January 20, 2023. You can buy a January 2023 $280-$290 vertical bull call spread for $2.00.  If Berkshire makes it to $290 by the January 20, 2023 options expiration, the LEAP will expire worth $10, an increase of 400%.

Another way of looking at this is a mere 20.8% move up in the stock in two years delivers a return of 400%, and you can't lose any more money than you put up. That implies a leverage in the position of 19.2X once the shares rise above $280.

Caution:
If the shares only make it to $280 the position becomes worthless.

Now you know why I like LEAPS so much. Please play around with the names and the numbers and I’m sure you will find something you like. But remember one thing. LEAPS are only a trade to consider at long time market bottoms, not tops!

They are also the perfect positions to own if you believe we have just entered a second Roaring Twenties and a second American Golden Age, as I do.

 

 

 

Time to Leap Into LEAPS

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-10 10:04:052021-02-10 12:33:06Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into LEAPS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 9, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(NEW GENERATION OF BIOTECH PLAYERS)
(OCGN), (PFE), (MRNA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-09 14:02:132021-02-09 14:32:08February 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

New Generation of Biotech Players

Biotech Letter

Thanks to COVID-19, a new generation of biotechnology players are gaining more traction in the market these days.

For decades, the biotech industry has been notoriously difficult to break into.

However, the pandemic has served to level the playing field—and the small-cap biotechs are definitely taking advantage of the opening.

The latest to cash in on the opportunity is Ocugen (OCGN).

Founded in 2013, this Pennsylvania-based biotechnology company attracted media attention when it announced its partnership with India’s Bharat Biotech earlier this month.

The agreement between the two companies centered on Bharat’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Covaxin, which Ocugen plans to bring to the United States as soon as possible.

Ocugen will hold the US rights to Covaxin and be in charge of the development, regulation, and even commercialization within that market.

Even without any upfront payment, Ocugen will get 45% of the profits from the US markets in return.

While the news only broke this year, the partnership between the two has been months in the making, with Ocugen reaching a tipping point in December 2020 when it recorded a jaw-dropping 800% rise.

When this deal was announced, Ocugen shares were projected to rise from $4.50 to $8, showing off an already impressive increase from its measly 29 cents valuation less than a year ago.

Ocugen blew past those projections though as it’s now trading at $15 per share.

The kicker? The stock still has room to grow.

Realistically speaking, Ocugen shares can reach $20 to $25 after FDA approval this year. If its other candidates in the pipeline work out, then we can even see it hit $50 at some point.

Considering that Ocugen was able to sell 3 million common shares at a price that’s 46% higher than where the stock was when it closed last Friday, it’s clear that there’s a lot of optimism on the company these days. 

The next question is this: Will Covaxin even gain approval in the US?

It can.

If it’s any indication, Covaxin has already been granted emergency use authorization in India.

Moreover, Covaxin was developed by Bharat, which is a highly reputable biotechnology company in India with 25 years of experience in the vaccine-making industry.

In fact, Bharat has developed over 16 vaccines and four bio-therapeutics, so it’s safe to say that the company knows its way around the business.

More than that, Bharat is confident that Covaxin can be effective against the new UK and South African variants of the coronavirus, making this vaccine candidate more potent than the other products under development today.

Unlike the vaccines of Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA), Covaxin does not need ultra-cold freezers for storage. It can simply be stored at room temperature, making it a convenient option for a lot of distributors.

Prior to its deal with Bharat, Ocugen has been focused on its gene therapy which carries the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with just one drug.

They call their breakthrough technology “one to many,” meaning the product could be the answer to several eye-related diseases.

Some of the rare conditions Ocugen has been working on are wet age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema, and diabetic retinopathy.

Ocugen’s growth prospects, especially in 2021, heavily relies on the company’s ability to get an emergency use authorization for Covaxin in the US.

This means that investors should brace themselves for volatility in the next months as the vaccine candidate moves forward with the clinical trials.

In terms of long-term prospects, it remains to be seen how Ocugen will take advantage of the momentum it gained from the COVID-19 partnership with Bharat.

ocugen

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-09 14:00:112021-02-14 15:05:09New Generation of Biotech Players
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 9, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ON EXECUTING MY TRADE ALERTS),
(TEN REASONS WHY STOCKS CAN’T SELL OFF BIG TIME),
(SPY), (INDU), ($COMPQ), (IWM), (TLT), (GME)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-09 10:06:472021-02-09 12:02:58February 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 8, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 8, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(VENTURE CAPITALISTS SHARE THE CLUES TO THE TECH MARKET)
(NVDA), (OTCMKTS: SFTBY), (GOOGL), (BABA), (AMZN), (UBER), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-08 11:04:302021-02-08 12:19:34February 8, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Venture Capitalists Share Clues to the Tech Market

Tech Letter

To gain a glimpse into the current psyche of tech investing, we need to take a raw snapshot of the state of Softbank’s Vision Fund.

The Vision Fund is the brainchild of the Japanese telecom company’s founder Softbank Masayoshi Son and is the world’s largest technology-centric venture capital fund with over $100 billion in capital.

The torrent of bullish price action of late has meant that SoftBank recorded a record quarterly profit in its Vision Fund as a gangbusters’ stock market lifted the value of its portfolio companies.

However, the significant gains accrued in equity were also substantially offset by painful derivatives losses as Son attempted to parlay his winnings into leverage directional bets in the short-term.

The Vision Fund’s $8 billion profit in the December quarter is a stark change from the prior March when the pandemic was in full gear and the Fund booked major losses amid embarrassing flops like office space sharing company WeWork.

As 2020 came to a close, tech growth firms like Uber (UBER) stock exploded higher and DoorDash (DASH) gave the Vision Fund a nice payday going public at the end of the year in stellar fashion.

On the options trading front, things didn’t go so rosy.

SoftBank posted a 285.3 billion yen or $2.7 billion derivatives loss in the period.

I understand “hedging your bets” but for Son to create this massive loss undeniably has to infuriate deep-pocketed investors from Arab nations that have stuck with him through tumultuous events.  

The staggering option losses was why the asset management arm registered a loss of 113.5 billion yen or $1.08 billion, up from losses of 85.2 billion yen in the previous three-month period.

Experiencing wonderful gains only to have the narrative wiped out because of high stakes option bets is perhaps a sign of the times as phenomena like the Gamestop (GME) have moved to the forefront indicating that players have access to too much liquidity at this point in the market cycle.

Some 15 companies have gone public from the Vision Fund so far, and Son does have a long list of busts and winners.

However, one might assume that he won’t hit on every company as he revealed that his Vision Fund 1 and Vision Fund 2 have invested in a total of 131 companies. In the case of DoorDash, SoftBank invested about $680 million for a stake now worth about $9 billion while its $7.7 billion investment in Uber is worth $11.3 billion.

There are still shining stars on the balance sheet.

Another six more portfolio companies are planning IPOs this year and bringing this volume model to the public markets is logical considering even zombie companies are getting funded out the wazoo at this point.

Tech is also still holding its perch as the darling of the market and Son is simply delivering to market what investors want which is growth tech and more of it.

Other issues on Softbank’s list are to sell off its interests in Alibaba, T-Mobile US Inc., and SoftBank Corp., the Japan telecommunications unit. SoftBank also announced a deal to sell its chip designer Arm to Nvidia (NVDA) for $40 billion.

On top of the risky growth companies, Softbank has also parked its capital in a who’s who of tech firms such as a $7.39 billion investment in Amazon.com (AMZN), $3.28 billion in Facebook (FB). and $1.38 billion in Alphabet or Google (GOOGL). The operation is managed by its asset management subsidiary SB Northstar, where Son personally holds a 33% stake.

Son labeled his options debacle as a “test-drive stage” hoping to play down the fact that he should have made a lot more with the massive ramp-up in tech demand in 2020.

It’s not all smooth for Son with the chaos at Alibaba (BABA), Son’s most exotic investment success to date and SoftBank’s largest asset, tanked 20% last quarter amid a Chinese government clampdown on Alibaba Founder Jack Ma.

This has to worry Son’s future tech investing prospects in China (P.R.C.).

SoftBank’s own sale of Arm to Nvidia (NVDA) is still making the rounds through the EU approval process. The United Kingdom and European Union are both preparing to launch probes into the deal.

All in all, a mixed bag for the Vision Fund where profits should have been higher and most of the damage was self-inflicted.

At some point, throwing massive amounts of capital to juice up tech growth firms will backfire, but the generous access to liquidity that Son has makes this strategy work while even affording him some massive failures.

In short, the Vision Fund should be many times more profitable and it’s a reminder that these leveraged bets aren’t going away which should mean enough liquidity out there to take the markets higher.

We should also be aware that the eventual “market mistake” could give us 10% tech corrections, which are no brainer buying opportunities if the same liquidity volume persists.

Then consider that many tech companies have done well in the recent earnings season and combine that with the eventual reestablishment of buybacks and the neutral observer must think that tech has more room to run in 2021.

 

 

 

vision fund

 

vision fund

 

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