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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The New Rules to Tech Stocks

Tech Letter

First, I would like to welcome the hundreds of new subscribers that just recently decided to take the plunge by hand selecting the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.

Our services have experienced a record-breaking year as novice investors and seasoned pros seek out the best tech stock ($COMPQ) advice in turbulent markets which have been riddled with high volatility.

There has never been a better time on earth to be human and there has never been a better time to subscribe to this technology content, offering cheat codes to the technology sector.

On the surface, it doesn’t seem that way.

Daily headlines don’t offer a positive spin on the world with energy caps, social unrest, military operations, supply shortages, cost of living crises, and extreme weather delivering us humble pie in many alternative forms.

However, readers must get in tune with the new world of tech investing.

The most essential thing to know is that passive investing is dead in this new world of high-interest rates, a rapidly deleveraging asset bubble, and broken supply chains.

Passive investing is tailor-made for a low volatility, high liquidity and a low-interest rate environment which has been swept into the dustbin of history.

This world basically ended in March 2020.

If readers aren’t actively managing their tech stocks, then you are behind the game as there are new laws to the land in the wild west of tech stocks.

As managers' focus on active management continues to accelerate, investors are becoming more inclined to not only enlist the service of active managers, but to reward them with even greater responsibility, access, and attractive opportunities.

A survey of 125 advisors found that 66% of respondents are more inclined to consider an active manager now than before.

Active advisors are also more likely to be considered in 2022 than passive managers with 89% of respondents saying they are unhappy with their passive ETF performance in 2022.

Almost all show a loss.  

The evidence is there for everyone to see.

Investors are migrating away from passive index funds that cannot make money when a basket of stocks go down.

This strategy only works during times of synchronized global growth.

Investors also liked how passive investing was cheap because managers did not have to take profits before an imminent collapse.

Now they do, and I must admit it does create higher execution costs, but would you want to be outright long as streaming services are losing subscribers in an accelerated fashion and constantly giving us downgrades and lower revenue targets?

The truth is that there are a lot of bad active managers out there with a poor track record.

Many don’t know how to time the market, hedge risk, and don’t understand how to analyze or prioritize the large swaths of data that inundate us every day.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader solves this for you.

Similar to the dynamics of Silicon Valley, risk asset performance is also a winner takes all industry. Tech is even more volatile relative to the S&P meaning even more diligence is required to outperform the Nasdaq.

The shift from passive to active is a paradigm shift that many still haven’t been alerted to.

To top it off, many conservative investors I have chatted to have now been cut off from their go-to industry – real estate.

Readers also won’t be able to effectively invest in real estate with 6% mortgage interest rates and generational high prices with owners sitting on a mountain of equity, boasting 3% mortgages, and nowhere to move if they sell.

For lack of better words, there is no alternative or TINA – which is why there has been an avalanche of interest in how to actively navigate tech stocks.

It’s no surprise that a large portion of our new subscribers come from real estate backgrounds and are looking for new opportunities.

Go where your money is treated best, and I can tell you that you’ve found the right place.

Quit being passive and act fast!

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/active-vs-passive.png 507 1451 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-16 15:02:072022-10-02 02:13:12The New Rules to Tech Stocks
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 16, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“We've arranged a civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology.” – Said American astronomer and cosmologist Carl Sagan

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/sagan.png 300 222 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-16 15:00:032022-09-16 16:26:08September 16, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 16, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TESTIMONIAL)
(LONG-TERM ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE CORONAVIRUS),
(ZM), (LOGM), (AMZN), (PYPL), (SQ), CNK), (AMC), (IMAX),
(CCL), (RCL), (NCLH), (CVS), (RAD), (WMT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-16 10:05:402022-09-16 15:55:48September 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter

Of course, I sent the check out to renew my concierge service to your PO Box. You should receive it this week. Only a fool wouldn't re-up. Thanks, and have another great year.

John
New Jersey

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/John-skiing-story-2-image-7-e1524865566160.jpg 276 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-16 10:04:102022-09-16 15:54:49Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Long-Term Economic Effects of the Coronavirus

Diary, Newsletter

The world will never be the same again.

Not only is the old world rapidly disappearing before our eyes, the new one is kicking down the front door with alarming speed.

In short: the future is happening fast, very fast.

To a large extent, long-term economic trends already in place have been given a turbocharger. Quite simply, you just take out the people. Human contact of any kind has been minimized.

I’ll tick off some of the more obvious changes.

To say that we are merely fatigued from a nearly three-year quarantine would be a vast understatement. Climbing the walls is more like it.

As I write this, US Covid-19 deaths have topped one million and cases have surpassed 95 million. China peaked at over 5,000 deaths with four times our population. The difference was leadership issue. China welded the doors shut of early Covid carriers.

Here, it said it was a big nothing and would “magically” go away.

The magic didn’t work, nor did bleach injections.

In the meantime, you better get used to your new life. You know that home office of yours you’ve been living in? It is now a permanent affair for many of you, as your employer figured out they can make more money and earn a high stock multiple with you at home.

Besides, they didn’t like you anyway.

Many employees are never coming back, preferring to avoid horrendous commutes, $5.40 a gallon gasoline, mass transit, lower costs, and yes, future pandemic viruses. GoToMeeting (LOGM) and Zoom (ZM) are now a permanent aspect of your life.

Commerce has changed beyond all recognition. Did you do a lot of shopping on Amazon (AMZN) like I do? Now, you’re really going to pour it on.

Amazon hired a staggering one million new distribution and delivery people in 2020 and 2021 to handle the surge in business, the most by any organization since WWII. I can’t believe the stock is only at $122. It is worth double that, especially if they break up the company.

The epidemic really hammered the mall, where a fatal disease is only a sneeze away. Mall REITs have since taken off like a rocket, once it was clear that the virus was coming under control.

And how are you going to pay for that transaction? Guess what one of the most efficient transmitters of disease is? That would be US dollar bills. Something like 50% of all US paper money already test positive for drugs, according to one Fed study. While in Scandinavia last summer, I learned that physical money has almost completely phased out.

Take paper money in change and you are not only getting contact from the sales clerk, but the last dozen people who handled the money. You are crazy now to take change and then not go swimming in Purell afterwards.

Personally, I leave it all as a tip.

Contactless payment deals with this nicely and is now here to stay. Next to come is simply scanning people when they walk in the store, as with some Whole Foods shops owned by Amazon.

Conferences?

They are now a luxury. All of my public speaking events around the world have been cancelled. Webinars now rule. They offer lower conversion rates but include vastly cheaper costs as well. I can reach more viewers for $1,100 a month on Zoom (ZM) than the Money Show could ever attract to the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay for $1 million.

At least I won’t have 18 hours of jet lag to deal with anymore on my Australia trips. I’m sure Qantas will miss those first-class ticket purchases and I’ll miss the free Champaign.

Entertainment is also morphing beyond all recognition. Streaming is now the order of the day. Disney+ (DIS) was probably the best-timed launch in business history, coming out just two months before the pandemic.

They earned enough to cancel out most of the losses from the closure of the theme parks. Again, this has been a long time coming and the other major movie producers will soon follow suit.

Movie theaters, which have been closed for years, may also never see their peak business again (CNK), (AMC), (IMAX). The theaters that survive will do so by only accumulating so much debt that they won’t be attractive investments for a decade.

The same is true for cruise lines (CCL), (RCL), (NCLH). But that won’t forestall dead cat bounces that are worth a double in the meantime, as they are coming off of such low levels. No vaccination, no cruise.

Exercise has changed overnight. All gyms and health clubs closed, and are only just now slowly reopening. Working out will become a solo exercise far away on a high mountain. I have already been doing this for 30 years, so piece of cake here.

Friends with yoga classes are now doing them in the living room, streaming their instructors online. The economics of online yoga classes are so compelling, with hundreds attending online classes at once. The old model may never come back.

If you are having trouble getting your kids to comply with social distancing requirements, have a family movie night and watch Gwyneth Paltrow and Cate Winslet die horrible deaths in Contagion. It has been applauded by scientists as the most accurate presentation of the kind of out-of-control pandemic we have been dealt with.

It is bone-chilling.

I hope you learned from the last pandemic because the next one may be just around the corner, thanks to globalization. In 1918, it took three months for an enhanced mutated flu virus to get from Europe to the US. This time, it took a day to get from China.
 
Stay healthy.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/john-thomas-covid-shot.png 350 468 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-16 10:02:242022-09-16 15:56:08Long-Term Economic Effects of the Coronavirus
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - September 16, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“It’s not like stocks are so compelling. It’s that there is nowhere else to put your cash. There’s a ton of capital coming in here. When it feels this easy, it’s usually time to be cautious,” said Barry Sternwood, CEO of the Starwood Capital Group.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Man-Clouds-Chart-e1411768031501.jpg 250 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-16 09:00:172022-09-16 15:53:53Quote of the Day - September 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 15, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A LONG-TERM HIGH-RISK STOCK)
(ILMN), (GRAL), (EXAS), (NVTA), (GH), (NTRA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-15 16:02:592022-09-15 16:52:31September 15, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Long-Term High Risk Stock

Biotech Letter

As Warren Buffett says, it’s wise to be greedy when others are fearful. This is excellent advice these days since we’ve been dealing with fearful times. Even the best growth stocks have been struggling from economic headwinds and the rising panic over interest rate hikes.

That means there are several opportunities for enterprising investors to take advantage of the uncertainties and set themselves up for long-term success by buying quality stocks at discounted prices.

One stock that has been battling issues lately is Illumina (ILMN).

Over the past 10 years, Illumina has delivered 380% returns—resoundingly beating the market’s gain of 241.6%.

To achieve that success, the company sold, installed, and serviced over 20,000 gene sequencer devices, which hospitals and other biomedical centers use to analyze genetic data.

Unfortunately, Illumina’s luck has turned in the last 12 months. The company has been underperforming and has investors worried about the future.

Illumina’s dominance in the sequencer market is one of the significant reasons to invest in its stock.

After all, the significance of genetic information is projected to expand over time. That makes Illumina the clear candidate for a long-term hold despite its current underperformance.

However, it’s understandable for investors to be anxious, especially with the recent move of Europe’s antitrust regulators to bar the $8 billion acquisition of Grail (GRAL).

Here’s a brief background about the deal.

Grail has created a lab test that can identify over 50 types of cancers at their early stages using only a simple blood draw. This is called the Galleri blood test.

Since screenings do not exist for most kinds of cancers, many are not diagnosed until they’re already spread and are, therefore, more challenging to treat.

Although Grail’s test does not promise to detect all cancers, it can catch the 12 most fatal types with roughly 76% accuracy, while its false positives are lower than 1%.

Needless to say, these tests could save thousands of lives annually if adopted across the globe.

This is where Illumina comes in. Since the company develops platforms that sequence genetic tests for various fetal abnormalities and even COVID variants, it has the technology to expand Grail’s operation.

Moreover, Illumina has extensive experience negotiating insurer reimbursements, which means it could accelerate the commercial adoption of Grail’s technology. At the moment, most insurers refuse to cover the costs of Grail’s test.

This resulted in only $12 million in revenue for the company, with over $187 million in operating loss. Grail’s underwhelming performance is one of the reasons investors are baffled over the move to block the acquisition.

Another is that the acquisition does not fall under any of the categories for antitrust reviews under the EU bylaws because Grail does not operate or do any business in Europe.

However, the commissioner decided to invoke a provision under EU’s merger rules that allow member states to reach out to the commission when their governments do not have jurisdiction over the matter. Six countries did so, which led to the review.

The commission is tag-teaming with the US Federal Trade Commission, which also moved to stop the deal in 2021. Both regulating bodies claim that the agreement could impede competition in the embryonic multiple cancer-early detection industry.

According to the EU commission, this acquisition would cut off all of Grail’s rivals in the segment.

This is a tad confusing, though, because Grail has no rivals in the field.

The entire debacle has the scientific community wondering over the real reason, especially since Illumina developed the technology Grail used. Then, it was spun off for financing purposes, but Illumina still retained 20% ownership. Now, the company is merely taking it all back again by acquiring it.

It remains to be seen what will happen in the following months as Illumina plans to appeal the decision.

But why is Illumina still pushing through with this deal?

The reality is that the genetic testing industry is a bloodbath. It can take years for a single genetic test to complete clinical trials, receive regulatory approval, and achieve insurance coverage. This struggle is apparent in so many clinical laboratories such as Exact Sciences (EXAS), Invitae (NVTA), Guardant Health (GH), and Natera (NTRA). Even Grail lost so much while developing its cancer blood test.

Meanwhile, Illumina chooses to market clinical tests its clients have already pioneered. That way, it can still gain profits as a supplier of sequencing tools.

Hence, having Grail back in its portfolio would be a cherry on top of its current strategy.

Looking at the situation right now, it’s a mess. Nevertheless, Illumina’s main line of business is a significant segment to be a part of in the coming years.

I don’t think the company would spend this much time and effort on Grail unless the future payoff would be substantial. Think about it: detecting cancers early? How incredible is this technology? How many lives would be saved because of it?

The long-term investing thesis for betting on Illumina is that it’ll most likely continue to deploy its gene sequencing devices globally, generating more recurring revenue flows in the process.

Simultaneously, the company can expand its domain knowledge and gather a copious amount of data for R&D that would equip it against competitors.

Basically, it has found a way to lock in customers for years while being several steps ahead of its rivals.

As confusing and grim the situation may be, for now, I believe Illumina stock is an excellent investment with or without Grail (but I hope it finds a way to be with it).

 

illumina stock

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-15 16:00:202022-10-02 02:32:01A Long-Term High Risk Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 15, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(PICKING A FIGHT WITH GARY)
(BTC), (IRS), (SEC), (COIN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-15 15:04:332022-09-15 16:45:45September 15, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Picking A Fight With Gary

Bitcoin Letter

Chairman of the SEC Gary Gensler is not hiring 87,000 new SEC agents who will form the backbone of the SEC and “carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force, if necessary.”

No, that’s the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) but the SEC is starting to trend in that direction in regard to how it views the crypto industry.

We aren’t at the point of the SEC raiding crypto exchanges. That stuff only happens in places like Palm Beach, Florida.

Gensler’s recent message to crypto has essentially been to get with the program or face a tortuous existence.  

His defiant message appears to be falling on deaf ears as the crypto industry has felt they should be entitled to a new set of lenient rules than conventional assets.

I can tell you this has worked out quite poorly for crypto companies who have willfully placed a bullseye squarely on their forehead.

In a recent speech, Gensler criticized the crypto industry, telling an audience of lawyers that the “vast majority” of the nearly 10,000 existing crypto tokens are securities, being issued to the public in violation of federal laws.

He argued that through statements and dozens of enforcement actions, the SEC has made clear how existing law applies to the industry and that no such rules are forthcoming.

Gensler said investors deserve disclosure to help them sort between investments that they think will either flourish or flounder.

The SEC has been adding to its enforcement staff dedicated to protecting investors in the crypto market, announcing in May that it was adding 20 new positions in the newly named Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, nearly doubling its size.

Crypto infrastructure companies have knowingly avoided the law and SEC as securities exchanges and broker-dealers by failing to properly register while continuing business as usual.

They also believe the products sold aren’t “securities” in the way that the SEC believes they are.

In their world, tokens are like gaming chips or collector’s cards.

We have a word for what they are doing in the English language – illegal.

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), the largest publicly traded crypto exchange, said in its most recent quarterly report that the company is under investigation by the SEC, and has received a list of questions about how it chooses which digital assets to list and how it classifies them.

The SEC brought charges in July against a former Coinbase product manager for insider trading, identifying nine tokens it alleges are securities, which were listed on the exchange. Coinbase has said that it disagrees with the SEC’s classification.

In February, the crypto lending platform BlockFI agreed to pay a $100 million for failing to register with the agency.

Gensler said that the SEC will have to come up with new procedures for registering crypto exchanges because they also offer custodial and broker-dealer services, unlike typical stock market exchanges.

I understand that some of these crypto exchanges are a little different from what some of the retail stock exchange platforms are selling, but skirting the law now just means the penalties will be even harsher down the road.

This is not the era of Facebook when the internet police had no idea what was going on with them.

It took decades for sentiment to shift against big tech.

However, from inception, crypto has been unable to shake the stereotype of being a fly-by-night operation and large swaths of it sure appear to be sketchy and they are policed as such.

The brand damage is immense causing the incremental investor to abstain from crypto and the regulators to clamp down even further on crypto companies and products.

We are seeing this in real-time.

The regulation is a footnote on a bull run on the way up, but now crypto has shot itself in the foot and is having a hard time convincing new investors into the asset class precisely because of a loss of trust.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/bitcoin.png 681 1430 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-15 15:02:152022-09-15 16:46:09Picking A Fight With Gary
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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