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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Kowtows to the Institutions

Bitcoin Letter

Google allowing crypto payments to its cloud services from Coinbase (COIN) doesn’t move the needle.

COIN is the crypto exchange platform that has run into a litany of problems recently from mass firing of staff to payment problems.

The news is a footnote to the carnage that is really happening front and center in the crypto market.

Funnily enough, why would a customer choose to pay for Google’s cloud services through Coinbase when an extortionate fee is levied on the Coinbase transaction?

Crypto isn’t cheap and it doesn’t pretend to be.

Ether (ETH) is infamous for its commission which they call “gas fees.”

In 2021, they charged an average of $63 for one transaction which is why it lags behind other cryptos like Bitcoin.

ACH transfers are free and so are debit and credit card purchases in most cases.

Even though El Salvador claims to be a crypto-first economy, most transactions are completed in cash which are US dollars.

At least crypto will now be allowed to transact on Google’s platform which is a victory in itself, but I don’t believe this will catch on like wildfire.

Crypto is up against a Sisyphean task.

The Google Cloud Platform infrastructure service will initially accept cryptocurrency payments from a handful of customers.

Over time, Google will allow many more customers to make payments with cryptocurrency.

Coinbase will earn a percentage of transactions that go through it.

It is high risk to hold crypto on the balance sheet.

Coinbase announced a $377 million impairment charge tied to a decline in the value of its cryptocurrency holdings in August.

Therefore, I expect Google to charge a fee to convert the crypto back to dollars once they accept the payment.

From the outside, this really does look like a marketing gimmick.

Blockchain technologies such as nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, have become a bigger focus for Google’s cloud division.

Previously, Google has pushed for growth in major industries such as media and retail. This year it announced the formation of teams to drum up blockchain business and build tools that third-party developers can draw on to run blockchain applications.

However, I thought that crypto was going at its lone-wolf style hoping to create a parallel system to the fiat money system which they despise.

Apparently not.

Tying up with a mega tech corporate firm sounds like they are giving up to me.

Seems as if the founding investors are ready to cash out and leave the die-hard crypto believers for a more stable income stream.

Annuity like income stream is something many crypto firms lack and locating one is a hard sell.

Crypto was supposed to be “decentralized” but this appears to be a move that will offer Google the keys to Coinbase’s data while limiting them to lateral moves.

In short, this is a move that allows more centralization to the biggest crypto platform in the United States.

Growth was crypto’s calling card and that means parabolic growth possibilities are over.

Integrating with Google also means Google will have a deep insight into how they can use Coinbase to profit from digital currencies since Coinbase has agreed to onboard their data onto Google’s cloud infrastructure.

Honestly, this is a bonehead strategic move for Coinbase and my inclination would be to buy Google’s stock if one believes in crypto.

Desperation can trigger some unusual moves and we are seeing that in real-time, but analyzing the bleak short-term prospects for crypto, this might be a move for survival than anything else.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 16:02:552022-10-11 16:26:10Kowtows to the Institutions
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 11, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“Every technological revolution takes about 50 years.” – Said Founder of Alibaba Jack Ma

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/jack-Ma.png 385 370 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 16:00:542022-10-11 16:27:38Quote of the Day - October 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 11:50:272022-10-11 11:50:27Trade Alert - (TLT) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 11:19:572022-10-11 11:19:57Trade Alert - (SPY) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 10:59:332022-10-11 10:59:33Trade Alert - (SPY) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (AAPL) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 10:47:332022-10-11 10:51:49Trade Alert - (AAPL) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Douglas Davenport

October 11, 2022

Jacque's Post

Hello everyone,

I hope life is treating you well wherever you are in the world.

The market is still in a slugfest.  Rallies are punctured by the bears now.  It’s a waiting game until we find a market bottom.  The market will see it before you do.

Have you thrown your hands in the air and gone to cash?  This is what many people have done, according to a UBS strategist.  Some $89 billion has poured into money market funds in the past week.  People are trying to time the markets.  Most can’t do it.  Most people don’t get back into the market until the train has well and truly left the station.  Will your cash work for you sitting in the bank?  Long-term opportunities can be found in the environment, technology, and food.  Always monitor and record John’s suggestions.

Janet Yellen says the U.S. economy is doing well.  It has slowed down, but jobs reports still indicate a quite sturdy labour market.

On Thursday, the inflation report is released.  Let’s wait and see what it says.  Volatility will probably surround this report.

It’s the 20th anniversary of the Bali bombings on October 12.  A very sad day for so many.  All I know is that violence begets more violence, so let’s all do our bit to keep peace in the world.

The forecast for Australia from the weather bureau is bleak.  Rain, cyclones, and extreme weather events are expected between October 2022 and April 2023.  I guess that means no BBQs on the beach this Christmas Day???

The IMF is also forecasting a bleak outlook for economic growth for Australia.  Cost of living, mortgage rates, job cuts in companies will all put pressure on economic activity.  Many people are now looking at alternative ways to build a home – tires, bales of hay, and shipping containers all now feature as cheaper options for a home. 

That’s your lot for today.

Do take care.

Happy trading.

Cheers,
Jacque

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.

  -- William Arthur Ward

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-10-11 10:47:092022-11-17 15:19:00October 11, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (PANW) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 09:53:302022-10-11 09:53:30Trade Alert - (PANW) October 11, 2022 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 11, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(DINNER WITH BEN BERNANKE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 09:04:212022-10-11 13:39:27October 11, 2022
MHFTR

Dinner with Ben Bernanke

Diary, Newsletter

You would never guess Dr. Ben Bernanke was once one of the most powerful men in the world, indeed in all of human history.

There he sat across the table from me in a popular San Francisco Italian restaurant wearing a poorly made grey suit and a cheap pair of shoes, with rubber soles.

Only the occasional interruption from an autograph seeker belied his true importance.

I managed to snare Ben for a couple of hours on his national book tour promoting his just released “The Courage to Act.” Out only days, it was already at the top of the New York Times Best Seller list.

Ben is a different guy now. For a start, you can now call him “Ben” instead of “Governor.”

Remember those carefully parsed, measured, and deliberate words he used to use to explain Federal Reserve monetary policy and his future intentions? That guy is long gone.

The new Ben is funny in a subtle but wickedly clever manner. He is also instructional, thoughtful, even professorial. At the end of the day, Ben Bernanke is now your favorite university faculty member.

Ben’s big revelation to me was that there were no potential triggers out there for another 2008-09 type financial crisis.

American banks have been recapitalized to the extent that they now have a stronger safety net with which to weather any future volatility. US banks are bigger and more profitable than ever.

The big global concern right now is with emerging markets, where trillions of dollars worth of US dollar-denominated debt have been borrowed, collateralized by depreciating local currencies.

Another worry is the perceived “Fed put,” which allowed investors to get complacent with their risk-taking, at least until 2021.

Bernanke believes that rising income inequality is the biggest structural problem we face. It means that not all are benefiting from an improving economy, a goal of Fed policy.

This has been unfolding for 40 years, and won’t be solved in a day, as several presidential candidates are promising.

As a result, the “Horatio Alger” effect, whereby the poorest can rise to success through brains, hard work, and thrift, is now much less likely to occur than in the past.

Bernanke himself is a perfect example of that phenomenon.

Ben and I spoke at length about the dark days of the 2008-2009 crash, and he remembered the daily emails I used to pepper his staff with proposing fixes or patches on an almost daily basis.

Regulation dating from the 1930s had become outmoded and was woefully out of touch with modern-day finance. It was far too lax in the run-up to the crisis.

For example, insurance giant AIG was monitored by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which was utterly clueless when it came to pricing mathematically complex derivatives.

Bernanke warned President Bush as early as 2005 that real estate prices were getting too high and that a crash was coming.

His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had cautioned during the 1990s that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had a flawed business model that would eventually blow us and take down the financial system with it.

In the end, every major financial institution was tottering on the edge.

Bernanke had the benefit of completing his PhD thesis on the causes and mistakes of the Great Depression, once an arcane area of economic study.

Thanks to the laissez fair philosophy of the 1920s, the Fed let the money supply collapse, and one-third of all banks went under, some 8,000 in total. This froze the entire credit system.

Eight decades later, Ben therefore saw the answer to another looming depression in an inflated money supply, which we saw with QE 1, 2, 3, and 4.

He also helped engineer the $700 billion TARP that bailed out the 20 biggest banks, which he described as the “the most successful, but most hated government policy in history.”

When it was wound down, the US Treasury made an enormous $15.3 billion profit on the program by selling its big bank shares. Bank shareholders picked up the tab through the dilution of their ownership.

Part of the problem in selling the TARP, and later, president Obama’s 2009 $831 billion stimulus budget, was that while the crisis started in New York, Washington, it was slow to reach the hinterlands.

One Republican congressman in Iowa called local car dealers in his district and asked what the big deal was. Ben said, “Just wait,” and General Motors filed for bankruptcy months later.

I asked Ben who was his favorite president, as he was appointed by both George W. Bush and Barrack Obama. He confirmed that he liked working for the two men, but that Bush was the natural practical joker.

When Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Bernanke was required to give a weekly briefing on the state of the economy. Once he committed the grievous sartorial error of wearing tan socks with his trademark grey suit.

Bush complained, stating that the White House had dress standards to maintain.

Bernanke answered that he thought the Bush administration was one of fiscal responsibility, and that he had bought a four-pack of the controversial socks at the Gap for only $10.

When Ben attended the next meeting a week later, he wore the required grey socks with his grey suit. He couldn’t help but notice that everyone else at the meeting was wearing tan socks with their navy suits, including the president.

When Bush met Bernanke to discuss his appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, he asked if he had any political experience.

Bernanke replied that he had served two terms on the Montgomery County, Maryland Board of Education in rural South Carolina. Bush said, “that was fine.”

Bernanke is an extremely intelligent man. You can almost hear the wheels whirring when he is thinking.

I asked him my “gotcha” question.

Wasn’t quantitative easing just a means of bridging the demographic chasm of the 2010s, when 85 million baby boomers are retiring? Isn’t it just a way to pull growth forward from the 2020s?

He paused for a moment, and then changed the subject.

Finally, I had to ask if Bernanke ever got a chance to read The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader while Fed Chairman. He diplomatically responded that the “Fed takes great pains to take in all views.”

Touché.

To learn more about Ben Bernanke’s amazing “only in America” rise from obscurity, please click the following links for “Who Is Ben Bernanke,” and “Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me.”

To buy “The Courage to Act” at discount Amazon pricing, please click here.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Ben-Bernanke-story-3.jpg 313 250 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2022-10-11 09:02:432022-10-11 13:38:59Dinner with Ben Bernanke
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