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MHFTR

Please Use My Free Database Search

Diary, Newsletter

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my own hedge fund.

When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up.

You can do the same.

Just type anything into the search box with the little magnifying glass found on the home page on the upper right-hand side, and a cornucopia of data, charts, and opinions will appear.

Even the price of camels in India should show up (they’re falling).

The database goes back to February 2008, totaling 10 million words, or 12 times the length of Tolstoy’s War and Peace. Watching the traffic over time, I can tell you how the database is being used:

1) Small hedge funds want to see what the large hedge funds are doing.

2) Large hedge funds look to see what they have missed, which is usually nothing.

3) Midwestern advisors to find out what is happening in New York and Chicago.

4) American investors to find out if there are any opportunities overseas (there always are).

5) Foreign investors to find out what the hell is happening in the US (about 1,000 inquiries a day come in through Google’s translation software).

6) Specialist traders in stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals looking for cross-market insights which will give them a trading advantage with their own book.

7) High net worth individuals managing their own portfolios so they don’t get screwed on management fees.

8) Low net worth individuals, students, and the military looking to expand their knowledge of financial markets (lots of free online time in the Navy).

9) People at the Treasury and the Fed trying to find out what the private sector is doing.

10) Staff at the SEC and the CFTC to see if there is anything new they should be regulating.

11) More staff at the Congress and the Senate looking for new hot-button issues to distort and obfuscate.

12) Yet, even more staff in the White House gauging the president’s popularity and the reception of his policies.

13) As far as I know, no justices at the Supreme Court read my letter. They’re all closet indexers.

14) Potential investors/subscribers attempting to ascertain if I have the slightest idea of what I am talking about.

15) Me trying to remember trades that I recommended long ago but have forgotten.

16) Me looking for trades that worked so I can say ‘I told you so.’

It’s there, it’s free, so please use it. You can find the search box on my homepage on the upper right-hand side.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/John-with-wine-glass-story-3-image-e1526508431419.jpg 273 250 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2023-04-19 10:02:062023-04-19 12:50:45Please Use My Free Database Search
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - April 19, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“As an investor you’re not looking to avoid corrections, you’re looking to avoid bear markets, said Liz Young, Sofi head of investment strategy.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/John-Thomas-bear.png 402 291 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-19 10:00:272023-04-19 12:50:13Quote of the Day - April 19, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 18, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 18, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A BEAR MARKET BARGAIN)
(VRTX), (CRSP), (BLUE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-18 19:02:082023-04-18 19:43:38April 18, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Bear Market Bargain

Biotech Letter

When the Nasdaq Composite fell by 33%, it created the ideal excuse for savvy investors to pounce on high-quality discounted stocks.

While it can be one of the most uncomfortable learning experiences, Wall Street reminded investors last year that even the most promising stocks can and will plunge into unimaginable depths as quickly as they can skyrocket.

However, here’s a fascinating thing about the slipping prices courtesy of the bear market: These present a rare red-carpet chance for long-term investors. Although the Nasdaq Composite has been experiencing back-to-back double-digit corrections, a bull market almost always recoups its losses eventually.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) stands out as one of the most exciting growth stocks that investors should consider in the biotechnology and healthcare sector.

For the uninitiated, Vertex has become synonymous with cystic fibrosis (CF) treatments.

CF is a genetic disorder that affects the respiratory, digestive, and reproductive systems. It causes the production of thick and sticky mucus in these organs, leading to serious health problems. The global market for cystic fibrosis treatments is projected to reach $18.9 billion by 2027.

Vertex currently holds six approved CF treatments. Among these, the combination therapy Trikafta, also known as Kaftrio in the EU, stands out as their top-selling product. In 2022, Trikafta's sales surged to $7.6 billion from $3.8 billion in 2020, driving revenue growth.

Given its dominance in the market, it’s clear that no other drugmaker comes even close to challenging Vertex when it comes to CF. To boot, this biotech leader has several new areas of focus that hold the potential of not only delivering fresh revenue streams but also turning into blockbusters soon.

Actually, Vertex is a step closer to launching a new blockbuster in the form of a new type of treatment called exa-cel, which uses gene-editing technology to fix the genetic defect that leads to rare and often untreatable diseases.

The biotech and its co-developer, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), recently submitted their application to the FDA to approve their sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia treatments. The two companies are also waiting for approvals from the EU.

Based on the prevalence of these genetic blood disorders, the lack of effective treatments, and the potential of Vertex and CRISPR’s candidates to provide a one-time cure, the market size for exa-cel treatments for beta-thalassemia and sickle cell disease is estimated to be worth a total of $3.5 billion annually.

But, Vertex appears to have more plans for exa-cel.

For context, here is how exa-cel is applied to treatments for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia: the patient's own stem cells are collected and edited using CRISPR/Cas9 technology, creating exa-cel cells. These cells are then infused back into the patient after a conditioning process, which is currently done through chemotherapy with the drug Busulfan.

However, this approach is risky and has caused adverse effects in clinical trials. As a result, some patients with these conditions may not be able to benefit from exa-cel.

This concern prompted Vertex to explore new conditioning agents for exa-cel treatments that may be less aggressive on the body. They have licensed ImmunoGen's (IMGN) antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology, which is commonly used in cancer treatments to deliver cancer-killing agents directly to cancer cells without harming other cells.

ADCs are often used in cancer treatments to target cancer cells, specifically, sparing healthy cells from damage. This technology can potentially make the exa-cel treatment safer and more accessible for patients.

Regarding competitors, the frontrunner would be Bluebird Bio (BLUE). This was the first biotech to submit a sickle cell disease treatment candidate to the FDA. Unfortunately, its approval has faced delays. Still, Bluebird remains the only biotech that could be considered a direct rival of Vertex and CRISPR.

Apart from these, Vertex has two additional pipeline programs queued for launch by 2024.

The biotech expects to finalize its late-stage clinical trials for VX-548, a non-opioid pain treatment, by the first quarter of 2024. Vertex is also assessing a triple-drug combo targeting CF. Both candidates hold the promise of delivering over $2 billion in sales annually.

In addition, Vertex has been aggressive in acquiring companies to expand its portfolio.

Just last year, the biotech signified its plan to become an active player in the diabetes space when it bought ViaCyte and Catalyst Bioscience. Based on the portfolio of the acquired companies, Vertex appears to be making headway in developing stem cell treatments for Type 1 diabetes.

What do these developments mean? Well, it’s critical to review the whole picture.

Vertex already rakes in billions of dollars from its CF treatment franchise, and it’s highly plausible that the biotech will sustain its monopoly of the market for years to come.

At the same time, the company is also aggressively widening its reach and expanding into more lucrative segments. In short, the company is clearly on a roll. Given its track record and steady progress, it is an excellent long-term stock. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

vertex cf treatment

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-18 19:00:042023-05-01 17:35:06A Bear Market Bargain
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FCX) April 18, 2023 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-18 15:52:472023-04-18 15:55:55Trade Alert - (FCX) April 18, 2023 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (QQQ) April 17, 2023 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-18 13:42:282023-04-18 13:42:28Trade Alert - (QQQ) April 17, 2023 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 18, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 18, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY SPACS ARE A SCAM)
(PSTH), (SPAK), (NKLA)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-18 09:04:372023-04-18 12:45:17April 18, 2023
Douglas Davenport

Why SPACs are a Scam

Diary, Newsletter

Every investment bubble creates its own special instruments of self-destruction and this one is no different.

There were highly touted leveraged commodity and gold funds during the seventies, portfolio insurance during the eighties, money-losing tech companies with lots of “eyeballs” in the nineties, and subprime lending in the 2000s.

In this cycle, we have the Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, otherwise known as “SPACs.”

The goal of a SPAC is to raise money first on some generalized investment theme and then merge with a target company to achieve those goals.

SPACs have their advantages for some people. It enables start-up companies with no track record to go public faster without the costs and regulatory scrutiny of the burdensome public IPO process. Promoters promise to get investors into the next Amazon (AMZN) or Facebook (FB) early.

Easier said than done.

Some $162 billion was raised for SPACs in 2021 followed by a much more modest $15 billion so far in $2022. The largest has been hedge fund manager Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd. (PSTH) at $4 billion. There is even a SPAC for SPACs, the Defiance Gen SPAC Derived ETF (SPAK).

The performance of SPACs so far has been dismal. There have been 915 SPACs created since 2015. Only 93 managed to invest their funds in a target company and only 29 of those have produced a profit. This was during one of the greatest runaway bull markets of all time.

You would have done better to simply buy the cheapest Vanguard index fund. In the meantime, the issuers of SPACs for the most part became wealthy.

The quality of the management who had stepped forward to run SPACs has been mixed at best, including Ackman himself, who recently ran two gargantuan money-losing years back to back. They include former House Speaker Paul Ryan and NBA Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neil, not exactly known as financial wizards.

Then there’s Nikola (NKLA), an electric/hydrogen vehicle company that has promised to take on Elon Musk, unfazed by the complete lack of a functioning vehicle. These shares have cratered by 92% since their market peak among multiple fraud allegations aimed at the founder.

The risks and limitations of SPACs are legion. You are essentially betting on the good faith and judgment of a single individual unmoored by any filings with the SEC. There are no guarantees they can achieve anything. These disclosures to the government are there to protect you. Without them, you are dancing naked.

The conflicts of interest are enormous. SPAC issuers get to buy the equivalent of call options on their funds at deep discounts prior to issue. When issuers make fortunes overnight with little money upfront you want to run a mile.

And here is the big problem with SPACs. They are essentially roach motel investments, easy to check in but impossible to check out. Liquidity going in is unlimited but coming out is nil. You can often only redeem your investment at a huge discount, or if another buyer is willing to take it out at any price. That makes marks to market challenging at best.

Suffice it to say that if PT Barnum were working in the financial markets, he’d be up to his eyeballs in SPACs.

Personally, I’ll give them a pass. You should too.

 


The Problem is that it’s a Dummy

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/chart5-gtd-042822.jpg 449 668 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-04-18 09:02:132023-04-18 12:37:29Why SPACs are a Scam
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 17, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

JOHN’S VISIT TO MUSK’S GIGAFACTORY AND THE TRINITY SITE

Monday, April 17, 2023

Hello everyone.

I hope you are all refreshed after the weekend and ready for another week of trading and expiration on Friday, April 21.

Before I get into my post today, I would like to extend a “get well” note to one of our Concierge subscribers, Linda Constable. She has Covid and is under the weather at present. We are all wishing you a speedy recovery.

Today I am going to dive into John’s Monday newsletter and give you a summary of what’s in store.

John has recently visited Elon Musk’s Gigafactory, 20 miles east of Reno. To say it is massive would be an understatement. No cameras are allowed after you enter. The factory consists of an army of robots building machines. Human beings make a scant appearance when needed, otherwise, they are barely visible. John shares that the factory occupies about 2 million square feet or about 33 football fields. Japan’s Panasonic, which has the contract to supply the batteries, occupies a substantial part of the factory space. When it is finished it will occupy 6 million square feet, making it the world’s largest building. The facility is energy neutral and runs 24/7.

 

 

The state of Nevada will benefit from Musk’s facility. The state has granted Tesla a ten-year tax holiday to start the second phase, which will employ another 5,000. Whole cities are starting to spring up out of nowhere as buildings and businesses spread east from Reno.

Musk is charging ahead to meet his 1.8 million vehicle targets for 2023, up 40% from 2022.

John has reminded us many times, THE FUTURE IS HAPPENING FASTER THAN ANYONE REALISES.

Tesla is really a preview of what will eventuate in the business sphere and in our everyday lives. AI/automation trend is moving rapidly, and the consequence will be an eventual tripling of the value of companies that embrace these trends and wipe out those that don’t.

ALL companies are AI plays, John says. This is largely behind his DOW 240,000 in a decade prediction. John reminds us that Microsoft brought out its office in 1990 and it instantly made ALL companies more valuable as they adopted it. The Dow Average soared by 20 times from $600 to $12,000. It will be a similar story with AI.

John argues that a 20-fold return from here takes the Dow Average from $34,000 to $680,000, except that it will happen much faster as technology is hyper-accelerating. Therefore, John thinks that DOW 240,000 looks like an easy target.

If you think John has been taking a substance no one knows about and is exaggerating these numbers, think about these headlines for a moment.

FedEx (FDX) fires 86,000 drivers, who will be replaced by robots.

Uber (UBER) is replacing its 5 million drivers with autonomous drivers to increase reliability & cut costs.

Dentists adopting AI to read X-rays are catching 12% of cavities they miss, thereby increasing fillings and increasing profits.

 

 

In five years’ time, John says that companies like Microsoft’s (MSFT) Chat GPT and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) DeepMind Technologies will be spun off and sold at enormous multiples to the public.

The roaring 20s, will be a part of our lifetime with technological advancements providing the juice. All asset classes will rocket in value – including stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.

The 2020s is the genesis of AI and robots.

 

Start lining up those stocks to buy because in five to ten years you will be sitting on a very rewarding basket of stocks.

John’s 2023 year-to-date performance is now at +49.57%. His average annualized return is up to 48.51%.
John took profits on his JPM trade after it posted fantastic earnings. He rolled that into a Boeing (BA) trade. He also took profits in his April bond long (TLT) and rolled it into a May bond long. He will run his remaining April long positions in (TSLA), (BAC), (C), (IBKR), (MS), (FCX) into the Friday, April 21 expiration.

I hope you all had at least one of those positions.

John’s life is full of great stories. His visit to the Trinity site at the White Sands Missile Test Range is just one of them. This was where the first atomic bomb was exploded on July 16, 1945. He tells us that the 20-kiloton explosion set off burglar alarms for 200 miles and was double to ten times the expected yield.

 

 

Uranium plays like Cameco ((CCJ), NextGen Energy (NXE), Uranium Energy (UEC), and Energy Fuels (UUUU) are great long-term plays. John tells us that uranium is being described as a carbon-free energy source needed to replace oil.

I’ll leave you today with some myths and facts about AI. There is a healthy debate going on and analysts don’t agree on all aspects of AI.

Have a wonderful week.

Stay healthy.

Cheers,

Jacque

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-17 22:00:082023-04-20 22:36:52April 17, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 17, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 17, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SIDEWAYS CORRECTION IN THE SHORT TERM)
(AAPL), (NVDA), (TSLA), (AMD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-04-17 17:04:212023-04-17 19:13:24April 17, 2023
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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