Video replays from the September 12-13 confab are up. Listen to 15 speakers opine on the best strategies, tactics, and instruments to use in these volatile markets. It is a true smorgasbord of investment strategies. Find the best one that suits your own goals.
The product discounts offered last week are still valid. Start, stop, and pause the videos at your leisure. Best of all, access to the videos is FREE. Access them all by going to www.madhedge.com, clicking September 2023 Summit Replays!, and selecting the speaker of your choice
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Nvidia (NVDA) has stood out as a symbol of triumph in the technology industry, with a staggering 200% increase in 2023 alone. Despite a minor pullback, the GPU giant still has fuel in the tank, with projections showing a potential upside of around 27%.
However, the investment landscape is brimming with opportunities, and another contender in the AI sector is showing promise: Symbotic (SYM).
Having rallied almost 428% at its peak this year, Symbotic is at the forefront of revolutionizing logistics through AI, addressing the escalating complexities in supply chains.
This is a critical development because of the countless challenges involved in the process, such as labor strikes, congested ports, and rising fuel costs. Symbotic’s unique platform architecture has given it a first-mover advantage, leading to tangible benefits and a competitive edge in the market.
Symbotic’s proprietary system, shielded by over 500 patents, enables autonomous robots to navigate through distribution facilities at impressive speeds of over 20 miles per hour, achieving 99.99% accuracy in order fulfillment with minimal human intervention.
Needless to say, this technology is a much-needed solution in managing the increasing number of stock-keeping units (SKUs) and the added complexities involved with in-store pickups and home deliveries.
The high-density system and storage of Symbotic’s platform, coupled with the agility of its autonomous mobile robots, not only reduce movement but also enhance throughput, addressing the challenges of finding and retaining skilled workers.
As a result, this blend of innovation and opportunity translates into substantial customer benefits.
For example, a customer investing $50 million in a module can anticipate an equal value of inventory reduction and $250 million in cost savings over the 25-year useful life of the module, resulting in a lower footprint, higher efficiency, and accuracy.
To date, major corporations like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), C&S Wholesale Grocers, and Albertsons (ACI) have already embraced Symbotic’s innovations.
Meanwhile, the company’s financial growth is reflective of its success, with a 77% year-over-year increase in revenue to $312 million in its fiscal third quarter. Although not yet profitable, Symbotic is showing promising signs of improving margins and is progressing toward sustained profitability as it continues to scale its operations.
Symbotic’s market capitalization stands at roughly $17 billion, and its shares are justifiably premium-priced, given its cutting-edge AI technology and extensive expansion potential. Market opportunity is projected at a substantial $350 billion, indicating ample room for growth.
The investment community is also optimistic about Symbotic.
The company’s focus on the expansive U.S. apparel, general merchandise, and food and grocery market, valued at $144 billion, and its collaboration with SoftBank to offer warehouse-as-a-service systems, expand its total addressable market by over $500 billion.
This joint venture has resulted in a contracted backlog of around $23 billion, a significant achievement for a company projected to generate revenue of approximately $1.1 billion in its current fiscal year.
However, potential investors should consider certain aspects before diving in.
For one, Symbotic is still navigating its way to profitability, posting a net loss of around $39 million in its latest quarter. Additionally, there has been a noticeable slowdown in revenue growth, and the company’s reliance on Walmart for a significant portion of its revenue poses risks. Nonetheless, the joint venture with SoftBank is a strategic move to mitigate these concerns and diversify its customer base.
Looking at Symbotic’s trajectory, it’s clear that the company’s innovative approach and comprehensive platform stand out as its strong suits, differentiating it from competitors and adding substantial value to customers.
The impressive $23 billion backlog, blue-chip customer base, and strong value proposition indicate the company’s robust platform and solutions. The backlog’s structure, which allows Symbotic to pass on inflation and price increases to its customers while maintaining its margins and low risk of customer termination, is also noteworthy.
Overall, Symbotic’s fundamentals are solid, pointing towards a company with clear visibility in growth. However, the current stock price seems to have factored in much of the optimism. Still, the prospects for Symbotic are promising.
For those with an eye on the long game, waiting for the right opportunity to invest in this innovative company could be a prudent move.
We are living in the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and it will change our lives in many ways.
Within AI there is currently a large focus on Tiny AI or Minature AI which aims to improve the sustainability of artificial intelligence, thereby reducing its high carbon footprint. This emerging technology compresses the size of artificial intelligence algorithms - which use far less computing power - especially those that use large quantities of data and computational power. What this means is that this technology – Minature AI, can fit and run within microprocessors on consumer or the Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled devices. For instance, we can point to natural language processing (NLP) models like Google’s BERT. The larger version of BERT has 340 million data parameters and training it just once costs enough electricity to power a U.S. household for 50 days. In another example, we learn that a single training session of GPT-3, a popular language that produces human-like text, has the same carbon footprint as traveling 700,000 kilometers by car.
Tiny AI is a power saver and addresses the carbon footprint of artificial intelligence. It aims to reduce the amount of power needed by building algorithms into hardware at the periphery of a network, where they can perform data analytics at low power, avoiding the need to send data back to the cloud for processing.This improves latency as well as power consumption and enables Tiny AI to run on devices like our mobile phones, increasing their functionality but also improving our privacy as the data stays on the device.
As AI keeps popping up in our everyday lives, it raises several privacy concerns.Do you ever get the feeling that you are being constantly monitored in some way, or your privacy is being compromised?Smart home devices use AI to personalize the experience for each user.However, they store large amounts of data that is not particularly relevant for their applications, on the cloud – making it vulnerable to hacking.There is a demand now for on-device AI which enhances both privacy and safety for Smart Home Devices.The Tiny AI algorithms would run on consumer phone hardware, eliminating the need to analyse data on the cloud, thus reducing a significant amount of energy.Furthermore, it would also ensure ultra-low latency.Think about Google Assistant, the voice assistant on Google’s phone and smart home devices.After Google trimmed down its code so that it runs on-device rather than sending data to the cloud for processing, it processes requests a lot faster than it did before.
Tiny/miniature AI will impact all industries.This technology will facilitate the running of machine learning (ML) models to the smallest of chips and a diverse range of devices.This allows devices to be smart without connecting to the internet.Think for a moment about an autonomous car that doesn’t need to connect to the cloud or simply use a mobile phone to diagnose diseases in remote areas without the internet.Along with better algorithms, advances in embedded devices are advancing the trend.This allows for the development of devices that consume very little power and run for months or years.Now that’s a win-win for people and the environment.
Students hoping to become bankers shouldn’t study finance, they should dive into programming.
This is the big takeaway from how investment banks are run these days.
Gone are the moments when finance degrees were the hottest commodity, now it is all about generative AI.
Artificial intelligence (AI) could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs says.
It could replace a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe but may also mean new jobs and a productivity boom.
And it could eventually increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by 7%.
Generative AI, able to create content indistinguishable from human work, is "a major advancement", the report says.
Silicon Valley is keen to promote investment in AI in not only the United States but in a way that will ultimately drive productivity gains across the global economy.
AI will complement the way bankers work, not disrupting it - making finance jobs better, rather than taking them away.
The report notes AI's impact will vary across different sectors - 46% of tasks in administrative and 44% in legal professions could be automated but only 6% in construction and 4% in maintenance, it says.
Journalists will therefore face more competition, which would drive down wages unless we see a very significant increase in the demand for such work.
Consider the introduction of GPS technology and platforms like Uber (UBER). Suddenly, knowing all the streets in London had much less value - and so incumbent drivers experienced large wage cuts in response, of around 10% according to our research.
The result was lower wages, not fewer drivers.
Over the next few years, generative AI is likely to have similar effects on a broader set of creative tasks.
According to research cited by the report, 60% of workers are in occupations that did not exist in 1940.
However, other research suggests technological change since the 1980s has displaced workers faster than it has created jobs.
Nobody understands how the technology will evolve or how firms will integrate it into how they work.
Lower wages and higher output are a perfect recipe for higher technology share prices and that is exactly what we will get.
Currently, we are experiencing a mild pullback from the AI mania, but that is simply because it got too far ahead of its skis.
I am quite disappointed in the price action in a stock like Amazon (AMZN) which announced a major investment in an AI startup, but the stock sold off the next day.
The AI pixie dust has leveled off in the short term, and the broader tech market is being dragged down by spiking interest rates.
I do believe in the AI hype, but these trends don’t go up in a straight line and need time to digest which often results in short-term pullbacks.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/robothuman.png7601556Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-09-27 16:02:292023-09-27 17:55:42Reimagining Tech and the Workforce
"When a manager with a reputation for brilliance takes over a business with poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact," said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.
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I recently spent a weekend attending a graduation in Washington State, a stone’s throw from where the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics were held.
While sitting through the tedious reading of 550 names, I was struck by how many seemed to come from abroad.
As I listened to the wailing ceremonial bagpipes, I did several calculations on the back of the commencement program and was shocked with what I discovered.
Higher education has grown into a gigantic service industry for America, with a massively positive impact on our balance of payments, generating an impact on the world far beyond the dollar amounts involved.
According to the non-profit Institute of International Education, there are 819,644 foreign students in the US today, up an impressive 7.2% from last year.
This combined student body pays an average out-of-state tuition of $40,000 a year each totaling some $38 billion. The positive impact on the US balance of payments and the US dollar exchange rate is huge.
China is far and away the dominant origin of these students, accounting for 262,922, up 26% from the previous year. South Korea and India take the number two and three slots, thanks to the generous scholarships provided by their home governments. Saudi Arabia and Brazil are showing the fastest growth rates.
A fortunate few, backed by endowed chairs and buildings financed by wealthy and eager parents, land places at prestigious Universities like Harvard, Princeton, and Yale.
The top destinations of foreign students are the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, CA, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Indiana’s Perdue University, and New York University, with each of these claiming 9,000 foreign students.
However, the overwhelming majority enroll in the provinces in a thousand rural state universities and junior colleges that most of us have never heard of. Many of these schools now have diligent admissions officers scouring the Chinese hinterlands looking for new applicants.
A college degree once was a uniquely American privilege. In 1974 the US led the world, with 24% of the population getting a sheepskin. Today, it has fallen to 16th, with 28% completing a four-year program, lagging countries like South Korea, Canada, and Japan.
The financial windfall has enabled once sleepy little schools to build themselves into world-class institutions of higher learning, with 30,000 or more students. They boast state of the art facilities, much to the joy of local residents and budget constrained state education officials. Furthermore, the overwhelming leadership of education industry is steadily Americanizing the global establishment.
I can’t tell you how many times over the decades I have run into the Persian Gulf sovereign fund manager who went to Florida State, the Asian CEO who attended Cal State Hayward, or the African finance minister who fondly recalled rooting for the Kansas State Wildcats.
Remember the recently ousted president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi? He was a former classmate of mine at USC. Go Trojans! Do you think he was singing “Fight on For Old SC” in his jail cell?
Those who constantly bemoan the impending fall of the Great American Empire can take heart by merely looking inland at these impressive degree factories. These students are not clamoring to get into universities in Beijing, Moscow, or Tokyo.
Not a few marry and permanently settle in the US, while many others take their American brides home. Saudi Arabia is home to some 50,000 such wives, who had to agree to Sharia law and give up driving to obtain resident permits.
It also explains why the dollar is so strong in the face of absolutely gigantic, structural trade deficits. When a foreign student pays tuition to a US school, it is treated as an export of a service in terms of the US balance of payments, much like a car or an airplane, our country’s largest exports.
Rising exports mean that more dollars are staying home and fewer are going abroad, strengthening the value of the greenback. $24 billion and change offset a lot of imports of cheap electronics, clothing, and toys from China. This is why the US dollar is close to all-time highs in the foreign exchange markets.
The US has plenty of capacity to expand this trade in services. Over 70% of foreign students are concentrated in just 200 of the country’s 4,000 colleges.
The University of California has blazed a path that many other cash-strapped institutions are certain to follow. During the financial crisis, the world’s greatest public university saw two back-to-back 40% budget cuts from Sacramento.
So it made up the shortfall by bumping up foreign admissions from 5% to 10%, largely from Asia. They must pay $43,980 a year in tuition, compared to $15,444 for in-state residents.
What is the upshot of all of these for the locals? It is now a lot harder to get an “A” in Math at UC Berkeley.
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We made a lot of money from your service this year. I don't agree with all of John Thomas' trades, but we really like his insight and timely and quick, short emails that he broadcasts, like on the ECB interest rate cut, the falling yen, etc.
Thank you.
Craig
Herndon, Virginia
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In a world teetering on the brink of healthcare overload, the emergence of Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly's (LLY) revolutionary obesity drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, is akin to sailing in uncharted waters. These drugs are heralded as the harbinger of unprecedented advancements in biotechnology and healthcare, but they also cast shadows of potential financial turmoil on the horizon.
The air is thick with anticipation as Wall Street analysts predict a financial windfall for the drugmakers, with the drugs promising up to 20% body weight reductions and a significant decrease in the risk of heart attack or stroke.
The demand is skyrocketing, and the projections are staggering. The obesity market is poised to grow substantially, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.3%. However, lurking in the shadows is a looming healthcare crisis, a silent specter waiting to engulf insurers, employers, and government programs in a financial maelstrom.
GLP-1 receptor agonists are more than just another pharmaceutical innovation; they are a beacon of hope for the 40% of U.S. adults grappling with obesity. But, the beacon comes with a hefty price tag, with Novo’s Wegovy listed at over $16,000 a year.
By 2030, the spending on GLP-1 obesity treatments is anticipated to reach an astounding $50 billion, suggesting a financial storm likely to peak between 2025 and 2027.
This turns the Medicare landscape into a battlefield, with debates raging over the ban on paying for weight-loss drugs and the potential ramifications of their inclusion. It’s a complex dance, where the potential benefits of combating obesity are entwined with immediate financial challenges, creating a paradox that could reshape the foundations of healthcare economics.
Meanwhile, Medicaid, the safety net for approximately 87 million Americans, is caught in the eye of the storm as well, with the surge in spending on GLP-1 drugs from $547 million in 2021 to $1.1 billion in 2022 painting a vivid picture of the impending financial turbulence.
The complex interplay between state eligibility prerequisites and legal challenges underscores the intricate process of assimilating novel pharmaceutical breakthroughs into prevailing systems.
The employer-based insurance market is walking a tightrope, balancing competitive benefits and premium affordability. The introduction of the new obesity medicines is a catalyst, intensifying the existing tensions and raising questions about the sustainability of covering new medications without robust clinical evidence.
The industry is in a conundrum, with the need for expansive coverage clashing with the realities of cost management.
This narrative is not just a tale of numbers; it’s a human story, interweaving the lives of patients, taxpayers, and the evolving pharmaceutical terrain. It’s about the omnipresent advertising campaigns and the cultural phenomena surrounding these drugs, reflecting societal shifts in perceptions and expectations regarding healthcare solutions.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are at the forefront of this transformation, advocating for expanded coverage and emphasizing the long-term savings associated with addressing obesity. The discourse is filled with contrasting perspectives, with companies like Cigna Group (CI) and CVS Caremark (CVS) exploring the balance between clinical validity and financial viability.
The journey is fraught with uncertainties and challenges, with the potential rise in premiums and the quest for pricing solutions being critical elements in the unfolding saga. The healthcare system is at a crossroads, with the long-term benefits of obesity drugs poised against the immediate financial ramifications.
The emergence of Ozempic and Wegovy is a mirror reflecting the complexities and intricacies of the biotechnology and healthcare sector. The balance between innovation and sustainability is a delicate one, and the path ahead is interwoven with threads of hope, anticipation, financial prudence, and societal well-being.
Overall, the burgeoning obesity market presents a compelling case for investment in Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. The transformative potential of their weight loss drugs is substantial, promising to reshape the contours of obesity treatment. While the road is interspersed with uncertainties and challenges, the prospective growth and escalating demand for these innovative treatments underscore a lucrative opportunity. I suggest you buy the dip.
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