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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 29, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 29, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AND MY PREDICTION IS….),
(HOW TO “SNOWBALL” YOUR FORTUNE WITH BENJAMIN FRANKLIN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-29 09:06:412023-11-29 10:52:38November 29, 2023
MHFTR

How to "Snowball" Your Fortune with Benjamin Franklin

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Old Benjamin Franklin, one of the fathers of our country, was a pretty smart guy.

Not only was he a publisher, scientist, postmaster general, ambassador to the court of Louis the XVI, and delegate to the constitutional convention.

He also understood the basic mathematics that underlay modern investment theories centuries ahead of time.

When the United States was first founded, there was widespread belief in Europe that its experimental Republican form of government would soon fail.

After all, democracy hadn’t succeeded since the days of ancient Greece. Why should it now? The fact that the US was chronically broke didn’t help either.

One French mathematician, Charles-Joseph Mathon de la Cour, dared anyone to make a multi-century bet that the country would not survive.

Franklin happily took him up on it.

In 1789, he added to his will a codicil that endowed a trust with the city of Boston, where he was born, and the city of Philadelphia, where he built his career, with £1,000 each.

He specified that half the money be distributed in a century, and the balance in 200 years.

That initial investment equated to $5,000 at the time, or about $100,000 today in inflation-adjusted dollars. The British pound was the preeminent reserve currency of the day, and was good as gold, as it was still exchangeable into the yellow metal on demand.

Franklin died the following year days short of the age of 85.

The trust money was primarily invested in loans at a 5% interest rate in loans to young men under the age of 25 to finance apprenticeships in the trades. Later, it financed home mortgages.

So how did Ben do?

After the first 100 years, the Boston fund was worth $391,000, and half the money was eventually used to establish the Franklin Technical School, a two-year college that is still in operation today (click here for the link).

In 1990, at the end of the second century, the remaining Boston half was worth more than $5 million.

The money was promptly divvied up, with 26% going to the city, and the balance going to the State of Massachusetts. Much of the money went into the endowment of the Franklin Technical School.

Franklin did less well in his adopted hometown of Philadelphia. Corrupt politicians diverted some funds during the 19th century. Still, by 1990, the initial £1,000 had grown to $2 million.

The funds were used to set up a scholarship fund for Philadelphia high school graduates.

Interestingly, the two trusts never came close to their 200-year theoretical maximum value in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s because several early borrowers defaulted on their loans.

The Civil War also no doubt took its toll.

This story highlights the value of compounding interest, well known to all savvy money managers.

Every math student knows the fable of the mathematician who invented the game of chess for an ancient potentate. As a reward, he asked for a grain of rice to be doubled with each square on a chessboard. The king agreed.

The servant deserved the entire kingdom well before he reached the 64th square. The final total worked out to 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice, or 66 trillion metric tonnes, which is 435,000 times the displacement of the Queen Mary 2.

The fairytale doesn’t tell us if the clever, mathematician ever collected his reward.

Investment legend Warren Buffett is also familiar with the concept of compounding interest. He invests only in companies with great cash flows and dividends and rarely sells.

He entered the market in 1942 when the Dow Average traded around $100, just before the tide was turned for WWII.

Timing is everything in this business.

He entitled his authorized biography “Snowball”, a reference to compounding, and a great read by the way.

Even I have my own two cents to throw in here on the compounding value of investments over the long term.

Before Morgan Stanley (MS) went public in 1986, I was allocated a part ownership of the private partnership at 25 cents a share. That is about one-third of the annualized dividend for today’s shares.

Today, they are worth $300 on a split-adjusted basis, including dividends. And since I never sold them, I never had to pay tax on the gain either.

As for how many shares I got, I’m not telling!

The original £2,000 came from Franklin’s salary for the three years he spent as the governor of Pennsylvania. He believed that the nation’s leaders should work for free and sought to set an example.

Unfortunately, it was an idea that never caught on.

The last amendment to the US Constitution, the 27th, provided for pay increases for members of Congress and was passed in 1992. It only took 203 years to ratify.

Franklin didn’t limit his charity to the Boston and Philadelphia Trusts. He also created an additional fund to award a silver medal to the most creative high school students of the day.

It is now known as the Franklin Legacy Prize Medal and is the oldest continuously funded scholarship in the country, awarded every year since 1793.

As for our friend, Charles-Joseph Mathon de la Cour, he didn’t fare so well. His head was chopped off by a guillotine only four years later during the French Revolution.

Over the 200 years in question, five different republics ruled France, which suffered through several revolutions, civil wars, and invasions.

As Warren Buffett never tires of telling fellow investors, it is a terrible idea to bet against America.

 

Old Ben Had a Way With Money

 

Franklin Legacy Prize Medal

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Ben-Franklin-story-2-image-1-e1523047087935.jpg 222 500 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2023-11-29 09:02:592023-11-29 10:52:21How to "Snowball" Your Fortune with Benjamin Franklin
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 29, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Investors who go into trading crypto currencies hear someone is trading turds and decide they can’t be left out,” said Warren Buffet’s partner, Charlie Munger.

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 28, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 28, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A MILLIONAIRE MAKER IN THE MAKING)

(ABBV), (ABT)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Millionaire Maker In The Making

Biotech Letter

In the high-stakes game of investment, where the dream is to turn a modest sum into a cool million, savvy players are constantly on the hunt for that one stock with the Midas touch.

Enter the scene: AbbVie (ABBV), a heavyweight in the healthcare arena, boasts a revenue growth of over $20 billion since 2019.

Let's cut through the noise and see if AbbVie is the golden goose for your portfolio, capable of outpacing the market and padding your account with those sought-after seven figures.

Since its spinoff from Abbott Labs (ABT) in 2013, AbbVie has been flexing its muscles in the dividend world.

I’m not talking about just keeping up with the Joneses here; AbbVie's dividend payout has skyrocketed by an impressive 270% through late 2023. This isn't just inheritance; it's multiplication.

Now, let's address the elephant in the room: Humira, AbbVie’s blockbuster drug, which is set to lose its patent shield in 2023.

This anti-inflammatory drug has been a cash cow for AbbVie, spanning a wide range of treatments from rheumatoid arthritis to Crohn's disease. But the party can't last forever. As the patent protection fades, so does a chunk of AbbVie’s revenue stream.

However, don't think AbbVie's been caught off guard. They've been prepping for this moment with Rinvoq and Skyrizi, two new immunology drugs poised to pick up the slack and maybe, just maybe, outshine their predecessor by 2027.

Dig into the latest quarter, and you'll find Rinvoq and Skyrizi raking in the cash with double-digit sales growth, eyeing to breach the $11 billion mark in annual revenue.

AbbVie's strategy? Cover all bases Humira did, and then some.

But that's not all in AbbVie's arsenal. With over 50 programs chugging along in development, the odds are in favor of a few big wins that could give the biopharma top and bottom lines a healthy boost.

Besides the promising Rinvoq and Skyrizi, AbbVie has other aces up its sleeve. Take bipolar disorder treatment Vraylar, with its potential to hit $4 billion in peak annual revenue, or acute migraine drug Ubrelvy, eyeing at least $1 billion.

While transition phases are tricky, especially since AbbVie's shift from Humira to the likes of Skyrizi and Rinvoq is no walk in the park, it's the other elements in play that add to AbbVie's potential.

For instance, here's another factor that makes the company attractive for growth investors: AbbVie's stock is currently undervalued, trading at a mere 12 times its estimated future earnings, a bargain compared to the sector's average. This could be your ticket to get on board for the long haul, eyeing those hefty returns down the road.

Now, what about the financials? After all, a company's muscle is measured by its monetary might. Well, AbbVie's operating profit of $15.8 billion on $55.1 billion in revenue in the past 12 months is nothing to sneeze at.

Now, let's talk free cash flow (FCF) – aka the real indicator of financial fitness. AbbVie's sitting pretty with $24.7 billion in FCF over four quarters. That's not pocket change; it's a war chest, part of which is already earmarked for a generous 4.5% dividend yield.

So, is AbbVie the magic bean that grows into a million-dollar beanstalk? Let’s give it more context.

To morph a $30,000 investment into $1 million, AbbVie's market cap would need to balloon over 30 times its current size, a Herculean feat that translates to a market valuation of over $7.3 trillion.

It's a long shot but not beyond the realms of possibility, especially considering the long-run average return of the S&P 500.

Overall, AbbVie is more than just a contender in the investment arena. With its solid track record, robust pipeline, and undervalued stock, it's a heavyweight with a puncher's chance of turning your investment into a million-dollar dream. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-28 12:00:392023-11-28 11:02:21A Millionaire Maker In The Making
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 28, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 28, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE DECEMBER TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON!)
(WHAT’S NEXT?)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-28 09:06:012023-11-28 10:36:19November 28, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

What’s Next?

Diary, Newsletter

A Dow Average up 11 days in a row?

Yikes!

The last time I saw this, in 1987, Armageddon ensued. It hailed fire and brimstone, and dogs and cats lay together.

Excuse me for being nervous, but I am still hanging on to my 100% invested position.

And you know what is even scarier?

Almost all of the Dow gain since October 26 has been concentrated in a
a handful of technology stock, which I own.

That is the paramount question on the minds of every trader on Wall Street going into yearend.

And here is what is keeping everyone awake all night.

Will be closing out 2023 more overbought than at any time in history. NASDAQ has risen almost every day during November!

Markets are not just prices for perfection, but double, or even triple perfection.

If perfection doesn’t arrive, the consequences could be severe.

Any professional trader caught loading the boat here would be fired.

Better to buy on a dip or a momentum-driven upside breakout, than at an absolute apex.

It was all enough to bring my 2017 year-to-date performance to 15.74%, and my trailing one-year return to a positively meteoric 81.54%. November alone now stands at an eye-popping 15.37%.

It has been the best since, well….last year!

All is now on hold until December 10. That is when we get the CPI for November, which is likely to show another decline in inflation. The recent collapse in oil prices has yet to be priced in.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-28 09:02:422023-11-28 10:35:51What’s Next?
Douglas Davenport

THE FUTURE IS KNOCKING ON WALL STREET'S DOOR

Mad Hedge AI

(IBM), (QBTS), (RGTI), (ARQQ), (QUBT), (RTX)

Let's cut to the chase. The financial bigwigs on Wall Street, not exactly known for their tech-savvy leanings, are finally catching up with what some of us have known for years: Quantum computing isn't just science fiction; it's a game-changer. 

Imagine a regular computer, but supercharged by the mind-bending laws of quantum mechanics. It's like the “Schrodinger's Cat” thought experiment, but for computers - where things can exist in multiple states at once. This isn't merely intriguing; it represents a monumental leap in computational capability.

For those with an eye on investments, this leap is not just a technological wonder; it signals a major shift in market dynamics. 

Envision a world where complex problems, currently unsolvable by today's systems, are tackled in fractions of the time. 

Despite quantum computing's significant strides in recent years, it still resembles a prodigious child in a research lab, not yet fully prepared for the commercial playground. 

But it's rapidly evolving, becoming more accessible and cost-effective, thanks in part to advancements in cloud computing. In this quickly changing landscape, staying informed is vital.

As our digital universe and AI capabilities expand exponentially, the demand for computing power becomes insatiable. 

After all, quantum computing is set to be a key player in this arena by the decade's end. But who are the main actors in this unfolding drama? 

Well, you have the emerging contenders like D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), challenging the established giants of the tech world. 

In the software realm, companies like Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) are hard at work innovating. 

For a broader investment approach, there's even a quantum computing ETF (QTUM) that offers exposure to this nascent industry.

Transitioning to the big boys, there’s International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). 

A venerable figure in the tech industry, “Big Blue” has been flexing its muscles in the quantum computing domain. 

These days, IBM Quantum is no longer just a concept; it's a tangible reality with actual quantum chips and systems available. In fact, this initiative has already attracted over 210 organizations from diverse sectors, eager to experiment with IBM's quantum solutions. 

Their collaboration with Raytheon Technologies (RTX) for AI and quantum applications in critical areas like aerospace, defense, and intelligence, coupled with their ties to the U.S. government, underscores their capability and reach.

Notably, IBM's recent reveal of AI tools designed to regulate large language models signifies their strategic position in the AI landscape. 

Their WatsonX AI software platform, a symbol of their commitment to advancing AI technology, also illustrates their leadership in AI governance. 

With the launch of WatsonX.governance on December 5, IBM aims to ensure AI models are equitable, accurate, and transparent. 

As global regulations around AI tighten, IBM positions itself at the forefront of this burgeoning market, striving to demystify the AI black box and make it more accountable. 

For investors, this focus on AI accountability is not just a buzzword; it's the future of sustainable, profitable investment.

IBM's strategy clearly aims to bridge the gap between advanced research and commercial product development. 

The evolving WatsonX suite, informed by insights from IBM Research, showcases a range of real-world applications and customer stories. IBM has identified primary applications for GenAI in areas like Digital Labor, Customer Care, and App Modernization. They're especially keen on helping companies transition from outdated COBOL code to modern programming languages using GenAI tools, a move that could revolutionize legacy systems.

Moreover, IBM's collaboration with the open-source community, particularly around the AI application framework tool Pytorch, exemplifies their commitment to enhancing model performance and broadening the computing architectures available for GenAI models. 

Such initiatives open up new possibilities for a wider range of programmers to build or customize GenAI models, democratizing access to advanced AI tools.

In the realm of quantum computing, IBM is already recognized as a leader, thanks partly to its extensive work and public discussions about its innovations in this field. 

Impressively, the company has outlined a detailed technology roadmap extending to 2030, a rarity in the tech sector. This level of transparency and long-term planning is unusual and speaks volumes about IBM's commitment to shaping the future of technology.

Taking all these into consideration, it’s clear that IBM, a century-old titan in the technology battlefield, is not just adapting to the future; it is actively redefining it in the realms of AI and quantum computing. 

For the astute investor, keeping an eye on IBM's quantum and AI journey isn't only a good idea; it's a necessity in a world where technology and finance are increasingly intertwined.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-11-27 15:30:492023-11-27 15:32:17THE FUTURE IS KNOCKING ON WALL STREET'S DOOR
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 27, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 27, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(5 STOCK FOR THE UPCOMING A.I. BOOM)
(NVDA), (AMBA), (MBLY), (AI), (AYX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-27 14:04:592023-11-27 14:31:59November 27, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

5 Stock For The Upcoming A.I. Boom

Tech Letter

There has been non-stop talk about how artificial intelligence is reimagining the tech sector.

The highest quality artificial intelligence chatbot to ever grace the earth is exciting tech executives around the world.

My personal discussions with people in the know is that every tech company is now forming a work group and assembling its best engineers to figure out how to get their hands on something similar.

That being said, here are five companies that will benefit asymmetrically as this chatbot tech goes from fringe to mainstream.

Buckle up with your cowboy hat, because this type of technology will become pervasive in no time.

Since the cutting-edge chatbot was launched, there has been a massive re-rating of A.I. stocks because of the legitimacy of the technology.

It appears that chatbot AI will finally live up to the hype. 

In November 2023, OpenAI Chat introduced GPT and has since shown that the software can be used in everything from writing stock reports to resignation emails to messages for dating apps

Nvidia (NVDA) famously known for designing and manufacturing graphics chips is the first stock that goes off the top of my head to benefit from this new AI craze.

The company's technology is being used for various AI integrations from self-driving cars to robots.

Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is one of the best leaders in Silicon Valley.

Recent forecasts estimate that a boom in Chat GPT usage could bring Nvidia revenue of between $5 billion and $14 billion over the next 12 months.

The success of Chat GPT brings Nvidia a potentially significant boost in demand for computing power.

New Nvidia chips are benefiting from the large computing requirements of AI tools such as ChatGPT.

Ambarella (AMBA) is another chip company powering the AI ​​market. It develops semiconductors used in everything from in-car entertainment consoles to cell phones.

AMBA chips are also specifically used in self-driving cars, and the company recently partnered with German auto parts maker Continental for a joint autonomous driving project.

Mobileye (MBLY) was spun off from Intel and focuses on autonomous driving technology and driver assistance systems, which include chips and cameras. Volkswagen, Ford, and GM are among the company's customers.

Mobileye SuperVision is the top AI product at MBLY and is the most advanced driver-assist system on the market, providing “hands-off” navigation capabilities of an autonomous vehicle and designed to handle standard driving functions on various road types, while still always requiring the driver's full attention and eyes on the road.

C3.ai (AI) is a provider of software solutions in the field of artificial intelligence and owes its recent share price increase to the success of Chat GPT. Upon the announcement alone, shares rose about 28% when it was announced that Chat GPT would be integrated into its product range.

Alteryx software (AYX) is best known for data and analytics. The company is also involved in automation and specializes in artificial intelligence integration, albeit to a much lesser extent than competitors like Google and Meta.

There are rosy days ahead for AI stocks that will ride on the coattails of the most important trend in Silicon Valley.

 

 

 

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