Entries by DougD

Looking for Shorting Opportunities Among the Homebuilders

As we continue flirting with a final top in equities for the year, I am stepping up my search for the best ways to participate on the downside. At the very top of the list are the homebuilders, one of the top performing sectors since the October, 2011 bottom. The performance of individual names has

Testimonial

I just wanted to thank you for some great trades. Thanks to you, I was profitable on the (IWM) put trade and it certainly looks like the Apple credit spread will return a nice profit (the profit you defined). Your wisdom in the market has been a godsend to my portfolio and my family. You

Payroll Bombshell Give Market Technicians Heart Attack

I am sitting here on Easter weekend sifting through pages and pages from the various technical programs I follow warning that the roof is about to cave in on the stock market. Friday?s nonfarm payroll bombshell was dropped right at a key, make or break level for the S&P 500 and the Dow Average. Hold

Cross Asset Class Analysis Warned ?RISK OFF? Was Coming

Last week saw a dramatic deterioration in the economic data that has been the foundation of the Great Bull Market of 2012. First, we read minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting suggesting that QE3 has been put on a back burner. Then the Department of Labor?s Friday nonfarm payroll report poured gasoline on the fire,

Trolling for Short Sale Candidates at Market Tops

Fear of law suits prevents most analysts from publishing lists of short selling targets. But the GMI Ratings, Inc., a forensic accounting firm, regularly posts lists of public companies they believe may go bankrupt (see http://www.auditintegrity.com ). Many of their picks reflect the accelerating shift from the old economy to the new economy. With offices

Has Gold Had It?

With the Federal Reserve signaling yesterday that QE3 is off the table, many traders are now betting that the barbarous relic is about to take a prolonged vacation. Without a dividend or an interest yield in a world desperate for cash flow, the yellow metal suddenly doesn?t have so much to offer. Take away the

Beating the Market With Demographics

Regular readers of this letter know that I rely on long term demographic trends to predict the direction of global financial markets. Let me approach this topic from a different angle, measuring the number of retirees a population must support versus the anticipated burden in 20 years, and its implications. I start with the basket

Apple Joins the Establishment

I was more than amused when technology analyst superstar, Piper Jaffray?s Gene Munster, put out his own forecast that Apple (AAPL) would reach $1,001. Munster made the call after conducting a survey that showed that 40% of students plan on buying an iPhone in the next 6 months, while 19% of non-tablet owners plan on

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