I am sitting here on Easter weekend sifting through pages and pages from the various technical programs I follow warning that the roof is about to cave in on the stock market. Friday?s nonfarm payroll bombshell was dropped right at a key, make or break level for the S&P 500 and the Dow Average. Hold
Last week saw a dramatic deterioration in the economic data that has been the foundation of the Great Bull Market of 2012. First, we read minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting suggesting that QE3 has been put on a back burner. Then the Department of Labor?s Friday nonfarm payroll report poured gasoline on the fire,
Fear of law suits prevents most analysts from publishing lists of short selling targets. But the GMI Ratings, Inc., a forensic accounting firm, regularly posts lists of public companies they believe may go bankrupt (see http://www.auditintegrity.com ). Many of their picks reflect the accelerating shift from the old economy to the new economy. With offices
?A statistical model built around a normal distribution when applied to markets can be a very dangerous thing,? said David Kelly of JP Morgan.
With the Federal Reserve signaling yesterday that QE3 is off the table, many traders are now betting that the barbarous relic is about to take a prolonged vacation. Without a dividend or an interest yield in a world desperate for cash flow, the yellow metal suddenly doesn?t have so much to offer. Take away the
Regular readers of this letter know that I rely on long term demographic trends to predict the direction of global financial markets. Let me approach this topic from a different angle, measuring the number of retirees a population must support versus the anticipated burden in 20 years, and its implications. I start with the basket
I was more than amused when technology analyst superstar, Piper Jaffray?s Gene Munster, put out his own forecast that Apple (AAPL) would reach $1,001. Munster made the call after conducting a survey that showed that 40% of students plan on buying an iPhone in the next 6 months, while 19% of non-tablet owners plan on
?Equities lead the risk appetite on the way up, and they will lead on the way down,? said Lincoln Ellis of the Linn Group
That is the conundrum facing traders, investors, and individuals as we enter the new quarter. For some hedge fund managers, Q1, 2012 was clearly the quarter from hell. I have been in the market for four decades, long enough to collect an encyclopedia worth of words of wisdom. One of my favorites has always been
You know how I love second helpings, especially when the sushi bar is involved. I especially like unagi, or cooked eel, which is said to be an oriental aphrodisiac. I am going to take advantage of Japan?s fiscal year end book closing on March 30 to reenter my short position of the Japanese yen. This