April 9, 2012 - Quote of the Day
?A statistical model built around a normal distribution when applied to markets can be a very dangerous thing,? said David Kelly of JP Morgan.
Entries by DougD
Has Gold Had It?
With the Federal Reserve signaling yesterday that QE3 is off the table, many traders are now betting that the barbarous relic is about to take a prolonged vacation. Without a dividend or an interest yield in a world desperate for cash flow, the yellow metal suddenly doesn?t have so much to offer. Take away the
Beating the Market With Demographics
Regular readers of this letter know that I rely on long term demographic trends to predict the direction of global financial markets. Let me approach this topic from a different angle, measuring the number of retirees a population must support versus the anticipated burden in 20 years, and its implications. I start with the basket
Apple Joins the Establishment
I was more than amused when technology analyst superstar, Piper Jaffray?s Gene Munster, put out his own forecast that Apple (AAPL) would reach $1,001. Munster made the call after conducting a survey that showed that 40% of students plan on buying an iPhone in the next 6 months, while 19% of non-tablet owners plan on
April 5, 2012 - Quote of the Day
?Equities lead the risk appetite on the way up, and they will lead on the way down,? said Lincoln Ellis of the Linn Group
If You Sell in May and Go Away, What to do in April?
That is the conundrum facing traders, investors, and individuals as we enter the new quarter. For some hedge fund managers, Q1, 2012 was clearly the quarter from hell. I have been in the market for four decades, long enough to collect an encyclopedia worth of words of wisdom. One of my favorites has always been
Double Dipping on the Yen
You know how I love second helpings, especially when the sushi bar is involved. I especially like unagi, or cooked eel, which is said to be an oriental aphrodisiac. I am going to take advantage of Japan?s fiscal year end book closing on March 30 to reenter my short position of the Japanese yen. This
Where to Play From the Short Side
This time I am going to start with the fundamental argument first, then follow up with the Trade Alert. We are getting perilously close to a substantial pull back in global risk assets. While this has already started in commodities, the ags, oil, copper, and precious metals, we have yet to see the whites of
Taking a Peak at China
The handful of Chinese army officers I huddled with in the underground bunker all stared intently at their watches. Three, two, one, and then KABOOM! At exactly 12:00 noon, the blast of distant artillery sent a five inch shell screaming over our heads and exploded into the hill above us. The ground shook under our
April 2, 2012 - Quote of the Day
?It's very difficult to navigate a business through a paradigm shift. You must hard wire your system to second guess all the time, questioning what is next, and then what is next. You've got to retain optionality for both investment portfolios and the business your run to navigate this well,? said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chairman of