One of the great mysteries of the tech world has at last been answered.
Apple’s brand new spaceship-designed headquarter, one of the world’s most valuable buildings, has finally had a value put on it.
New figures released this week show the tech giant’s circular headquarters in Cupertino, CA was assessed at a breathtaking $3.6 billion by Santa Clara County for property tax purposes. The valuation doesn’t perfectly coincide with its market value — how much it would sell for — but is based off a detailed appraisal of the building, which opened in 2017.
If you include computers, furniture, and even farm equipment to take care of the property’s abundant peach trees, the figure rises to $4.17 billion for the fiscal year that ended in June, the assessor’s office said.
Beyond its giant 2.8 million-square-foot size, Apple Park’s high-end materials, abundant glass, and intricate design make it a standout in Silicon Valley. The building is so big it even has its own weather.
Unfortunately, the share prices of companies that spend billions on flashy new designer headquarters do not have a great history. Ride around Manhattan in an Uber cab and you’ll quickly understand that time has not been kind to the extravagant: the Chrysler Building, the Pan Am Building, and the AT&T building to name just a few.
Citicorp’s HQ, with its horizon-defining slant-edged roof, is still in business, but the stock is still down 75% from its pre-crash high. Is Apple headed in the same direction?
Looking at the share price performance of the past year, which has been zero, you might be forgiven for thinking so. Other tech stocks have risen by 50% or more during the same period.
Apple Park is among the world’s dozen most expensive buildings despite its relatively modest four-storey height.
America’s tallest spire, the 1,776-foot One World Trade Center in New York, cost $3.9 billion to build according to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey which owns the building and has 3.5 million square feet. Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands resort reportedly topped $5 billion in costs, while Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor exceeded $6 billion.
Saudi Arabia’s holy city of Mecca is home to two of the most valuable buildings in the world: the $15 billion Abraj Al Bait Towers and the $100 billion Great Mosque of Mecca.
Apple Park was assessed at more than twice the amount of Salesforce Tower, San Francisco’s tallest building, which was valued at $1.7 billion by San Francisco. Salesforce Tower has about half as much office space as Apple Park despite being 57 stories taller.
With property taxes in Santa Clara County running around 1.25%, Apple would owe around $50 million annually.
The building is a manageable expense for Apple’s profit machine. In its most recent quarter, Apple reported a mind-numbing $58 billion in revenue and $11.5 billion in net income.
Apple was Santa Clara County’s largest property taxpayer for the 2017-18 fiscal year, with $56 million in taxes paid.
Investors have been frustrated with Apple’s recent performance, although it did make back most of the 40% hickey it suffered last fall.
Its business plan seems well on track, shifting from a hardware company to one that focuses on software and services. If anything, the shift has been taking place faster than expected, with the cloud, iTunes, Apple Wallet, Apple Care, the App Store, and other services accounting for a growing share of earnings.
All will become clear when the company announces their Q3 earnings on Tuesday, July 30 after the stock market close.
No, I think the problem with Apple is that it is suffering from the China Disease. Employing a million people who produce 225 million iPhones a year, Apple is the preeminent hostage in the US-China trade dispute. That, undoubtedly, has been a dead weight on the shares.
However, after covering this field for half a century, I can tell that trade wars start, trade wars play out, and trade wars end. Unlike other trade wars, this one has a specific end date. That would be on Wednesday, January 20, 2021, or in 18 months, the date of the next presidential inauguration.
As for me, I am waiting to upgrade my current iPhone X until it includes 5G wireless technology early next year. I bet 225 million others are as well. Dump the trade war and Apple shares could rocket up towards my old long-term target of $250 a share in a heartbeat.
By the way, there is one other headquarter that may be about to join the dustbin of history. That would be 725 Fifth Avenue, NY, NY 10022, which has been appraised at a mere $371 million and carries a hefty $100 million in debt. In is now partly owned by the US Justice Department, which will soon sell its stake.
Locals know it as Trump Tower.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/jul19-image.png504899Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-07-19 12:34:152019-08-19 16:04:29What’s Happened to Apple?
I know it's been three years since the U.S. dumped its reflationary policy of quantitative easing. However, Japan and Europe are still pursuing it with a vengeance. So, it's best to be familiar with what it is. For a quick tutorial please watch the highly insightful and humorous video.
Click on the link below to watch a six-minute animation explaining quantitative easing to a 12-year-old, using cute little cuddly figures.
Was Ben Bernanke a plumber who was called to fix a pipe only to break it more? Does he have a cute beard? Is he trying to blow up the entire world economy?
Since the video has gone viral, over 6.1 million viewers found out when they watched the video, click here.
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No sector has been beaten, maligned, and abused more than the biotech sector in recent years. However, some of them are so bad they’ve become good, which piques my interest.
Investing in biotech stocks is not for the faint of heart. The road to developing and commercializing new drugs is long and riddled with hard battles, and an anxious investor won’t be able to sleep at night.
However, the returns offer incredible gains when everything falls into place. In this sector you’re almost buying lottery tickets rather than investing in shares.
In 1919, the term "biotechnology" was coined by a Hungarian agricultural engineer named Karl Ereky to define the merging of two industries: biology and technology. Almost a century later, Ereky's vision has been realized with thousands of products and services available in the biotech market today.
Despite the advancements of this industry though, the majority of the buy-and-hold investors choose to steer clear of biotech stocks -- and for sensible reasons.
It's no secret that investing in biotechnology firms can be unnervingly risky. Since its advent, investors have been regaled with horror stories of costly stage three drug trials going bust or plummeting stock prices due to the expiration of critical patents. Needless to say, these stories have soured would-be investors on the whole biotech world.
However, inadequate information and a lack of understanding of how the biotech industry really operates along with reliance on the performance of only a handful of biotech stocks may have caused investors to miss out on attractive risk-reward relationships. Not all biotech investments lead to disastrous results.
You may be surprised to learn that shares of the biotech industry has collectively gone up by approximately 70% in the past five years. This proves just how much these biotech companies rewarded their enduring. Success in biotech investing is simply a matter of buckling down to do your homework and applying a tad of common sense.
Throughout this decade, one sector has managed to outperform the S&P 500 index (SPY) in terms of total return annually: the healthcare sector. While there's no guarantee that healthcare stocks will go on to beat the S&P 500 in the years to come, the fact remains that people will continue to need medicines as well as healthcare services regardless of the country's economic status. The increasing reliance of the healthcare industry on technology has put the biotech industry smack dab in the center of all these demands.
I’ll give you some of my favorite plays in the sector.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Big-cap pharmaceutical company Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has the monopoly on the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) with three approved drugs out in the market, Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko, along with several promising products in the pipeline to target other auto-immune diseases.
In June, Vertex turned its sights on the genetic therapy part of the business via an expansion of its ongoing collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CSPR). Vertex also purchased gene therapy firm ExonicsTherapeutics to strengthen its foothold in this revolutionary technology.
Given the spectacular success of Vertex with CF treatments, its work with gene therapy is projected to bring in another blockbuster deal to the company. To ensure its monopoly in the CF market, Vertex has been aggressively seeking additional regulatory approvals to cater to younger CF patients. If the company succeeds, its target market of 75,000 CF patients would gain an additional 44,000.
Vertex is not limiting its efforts in this field though. To seal its position as the leader in CF treatments, the company is looking at developing triple-drug therapies as the next big development in their treatment plans. It has been performing clinical trials on three varying triple-drug combinations. If approved, these therapies would be able to address approximately 90% of the total number of CF patients.
As for the remaining 10% with no operational CF treatment, Vertex aims to address this via its work on gene editing alongside CRISPR Therapeutics. Aside from CF, the two companies have commenced clinical studies on applying gene-editing therapies to treat rare blood diseases and sickle cell disease.
Overall, Vertex is a certified outperformer in the world of big-cap biotech and provides good value to its shareholders.
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is one of the most attractive names in the biotech space. While the lawsuits against it involving alleged toxic baby powder endanger (JNJ)’s equity, the company is still hailed as one of the most notable innovators in the healthcare ecosystem.
The company recently disclosed its progress in developing an AIDS vaccine. Although the negative headlines about the company can be a cause of concern to some, it could turn out to be a win-win situation for long-term investors who can then take advantage of the bargain basement stock price.
(JNJ) has reinforced its stronghold in the fields of neuroscience, oncology, and immunology with these three areas generating over 72% of the company’s drug sales in the first quarter. In fact, (JNJ) recently received an FDA approval on its myeloma drug Dexamethasone. Its collaborative work on cancer treatment with Celgene’s (CELG) Revlimid and its own Darzalex received the FDA’s green light as well.
Apart from developing new treatments and medications, (JNJ) is also moving forward in the development of its robotic sector. Earlier this year, the company purchased robotic surgery firm Auris Health for $3.4 billion in an effort to dethrone the current sector leader Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
With all that is in its drug and services pipeline along with its earlier successes, (JNJ) raised its 2019 outlook despite its legal woes. The biopharma giant now anticipates a sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings per share now stands somewhere in the range of $8.53 and $8.63 per share.
Celgene (CELG)
Celgene (CELG) is one biotech stock that you can get on the cheap. It offers shares trading at only 7.4 times expected earnings.
With its shares trading well below the total book value courtesy of the pending acquisition by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), investors would be hard-pressed not to take advantage of the opportunity to add a company leading in the development of treatments for cancer, blood disorders, and immunological conditions.
Aside from the looming acquisition, another reason for Celgene’s dirt-cheap stock involves the decision to sell blockbuster immunology drug Otezla to allow Bristol-Myers Squibb to appease the Federal Trade Commission’s concerns over the deal. Nonetheless, Celgene’s remaining drugs still perform well in the market.
Its blood cancer drugs, Revlimid and Pomalyst, are the leading go-to drug for multiple myeloma. Revlimid has been approved to treat two additional rare blood diseases, myelodysplastic syndromes and mantle cell lymphoma. Another winner in Celgene’s lineup is its solid tumor drug Abraxane, which has been approved for advanced breast cancer treatment along with non-small-cell lung cancer and advanced pancreatic cancer.
Celgene’s pipeline is loaded with promising winners as well, with myelofibrosis drug Fedratinib and multiple sclerosis treatment Ozanimod up for FDA approval this year. Three additional blood disease drugs including Luspatercept are also in the works along with a cell therapy called Liso-cel, which engineers the body’s immune cells to target particular types of cancer. Celgene’s work with Bluebird Bio is expected to bring another cell therapy procedure called bb2121, which is anticipated to bolster the biopharma firm’s dominance on the multiple myeloma market.
Amgen (AMGN)
With its ability to flex its financial muscles at will, Amgen (AMGN) has accumulated nearly $30 billion in cash and investments. In the past four years, it has recorded an average annual net profit of roughly $6 billion.
The company has achieved tremendous success in developing groundbreaking technology and edging out its competition courtesy of its innovative treatments like the post-chemo therapy called Neulasta. Its cholesterol drug Repatha and arthritis medication Enbrel are both impressive performers in the market as well.
Despite its aggressive drive to acquire small biopharma firms, Amgen is actually a pretty safe investment. Throughout the years, the company has made a conscious effort to diversify its portfolio to steer clear of dependence on a single product.
In fact, no single drug provides more than one-fourth of Amgen’s total income. Among its products, only two drugs generate over a tenth of its revenue. This pattern of revenue diversity doesn’t stop here either as Amgen’s pipeline has nine Phase 3 trials and an additional five Phase 2 trials.
Illumina (ILMN)
One of the incredible developments in healthcare involves the unlocking of the secrets of the human genome – and Illumina (ILMN) has been widely recognized as the leader in this field. In fact, this company has performed more than 90% of all gene sequencing procedures ever recorded.
Branded as the “gold standard” for gene sequencing, Illumina’s highly accurate technology has turned the company into one of the leaders in the biotech space. Illumina is projected to dominate the industry for a very long time.
More importantly, Illumina has managed to make these treatments affordable. Using Illumina’s technology, the cost of human genome therapy has been remarkably cut from a staggering $100 million back in 2002 to an affordable $1,000 today.
Despite its potential, Illumina released lower-than-expected revenue guidance for this year. However, its track record indicates that the company has the tendency to underpromise but overdeliver.
Its revolutionary gene sequencing equipment NovaSeq has made remarkable progress since its availability in 2017 and has yet to reach its peak. Illumina has been on the lookout for high-growth markets currently in their infancy in an effort to become a pioneering force in other fields.
A good example of this is Illumina’s move on noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), which has recently gained popularity among patients. The company released an updated and more powerful version of its fetal genome detector system VeriSeq this year. This technology offers the quickest processing time compared to its rivals.
Illumina is also looking to utilize gene sequencing to bolster cancer research efforts and screening through its TruSight Oncology 500, which is a molecular test used to detect lung cancer. Since its release in 2018, the company has been seeking ways to expand TruSight’s application to include blood tests capable of detecting the very early stages of several types of cancer.
Another significant growth driver for Illumina is population genomics, with the United States, France, Singapore, England, and other countries already utilizing the company’s technology. Consumer genomics also shows a promising fiscal advancement for Illumina. To date, the company has been catering to major providers including Ancestry and 23andMe. Illumina even created its own genealogical spinoff called Helix.
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Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Mosaic (MOS) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse of the world’s food supply.
You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice.
It says a lot that when I update a sector report like this and half the companies have disappeared from takeovers (Potash and Agrium), you should take notice.
The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause droughts in some of the largest food-producing areas, causing massive famines. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die.
At greatest risk are the big rice-producing areas in South Asia which depend on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this crucial supply of fresh water will disappear.
California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack fails to show up in sufficient quantities as it has done in five of the last six years.
Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low-lying coastal areas is another big problem.
One of the 83-year-old professor’s early books The Population Bomb was required reading for me in college in the 1960s, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles to Palo Alto just to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the Haight-Ashbury).
Other big risks to the economy are the threat of a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global insect plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation and globalization.
And I won’t get into the threat of a giant solar flare frying our electrical grid. That is already well covered on the Internet.
“Super consumption” in the US needs to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths to supply the needed natural resources.
We must raise the price of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade will work too. Population control is the answer to all of these problems which is best achieved by giving women educations, jobs, and rights, has already worked well in Europe and Japan, and is now unfolding in Latin America.
All sobering food for thought. I think I’ll skip that Big Mac for lunch.
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, JULY 19 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR)
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR HERE COMES YOUR NEXT HEART ATTACK),
(INDU), (SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (FXA), (USO)
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Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland. You can meet me at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 19, 2019.
An open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today will take place. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, but no food. You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, if necessary. One year, a guest descended from the Matterhorn summit to attend.
I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $241.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, the details of which will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation. Zermatt is 5,276 feet (1,608 meters) above sea level so make sure you’re in shape.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this seminar, please click here.
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Sitting on a remote Alpine mountaintop this morning, this being Switzerland one with ample WIFI, I turned on my screen for the first time in four weeks and almost had a heart attack.
Risk markets everywhere have gone up almost every day since I left San Francisco in June, taking the major indexes up to new all time highs. They are doing this in the face of slowing global economies, falling earnings growth, and rising energy prices and inflation. Even the respected Atlanta Fed has a Q2 GDP growth forecast of a dismal 1.4%.
Did I mention that the US government is about to run out of money again in September, inviting another shut down?
In the old days the Federal Reserve used to be the sober chaperone at the party, making sure things didn’t get out of hand. Today, they are the devilish frat boy surreptitiously pouring 200 proof ethanol into the punch bowel, much as I used to do at Chemistry Department parties at UCLA during the early 1970s. The problem was that everyone else was doing the same thing, leading to some prodigious hangovers.
Another pint made it into the heady brew on Wednesday when Fed governor Jay Powell erred dovishly in his Humphrey Hawkins testimony in from of congress. It was enough to ignite the latest 500-point rally in the Dow (INDU).
The bullishness was confirmed by my own algorithmically driven Mad Hedge Market Timing Index, which reached a three-month high at 65. We have rallied an awesome 45 points from the 20 level in only six weeks and are now a mere 10 points away from solid “SELL” territory.
The end result of all this has been to bring forward my yearend target for the S&P 500 (SPY) of the low 3,000s to, like well, now. And if H1 has been one giant love best, how does that bode for H2?
A frightening convergence of events is setting up. Just when the Fed announces its interest rate decision on July 31, companies will be announcing earnings disappointments AND my Market Timing Index will be hitting the high seventies.
It all sets up what we traders call “an asymmetric risk/reward.” Good news will bring small incremental gain while even a small disappointment will serve up a horrendous sell off. Fed funds futures are now indicating a 100% of a 25-basis point rate cut on the 31st, and see overnight rates plunging to only 1.75% by yearend end. Hence the heart problems mentioned above.
So as much as you may despise, loathe, and hurl epitaphs at me, I am not going to tell you to buy the stock market today. Your last chance to do that was the final week of May.
The quality trade these days is clearly in other asset classes, like bonds (TLT), foreign exchange (FXA), gold (GLD), and energy (USO). My only exceptions will be “BUYS” in any bombed out high-quality single names I can find.
As I have been out of the market, my Global Trading Dispatch has been flat ling at up 15.38% year-to-date and has earned precisely 0% so far in July. My trailing one-year declined to +14.2%.
My ten-year profit fell back to +32.92%.With the markets now in the process of peaking out for the short term I am now 100% in cash with Global Trading Dispatch and 100% cash in the Mad Hedge Tech Letter.
The coming week will be a fairly sedentary one on the data front after last week’s fireworks.
On Monday, July 15 at 9:30 AM EST, New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Index is released.
On Tuesday, July 16 8:30 AM EST, the June US Retail Sales are out.
On Wednesday, July 17 at 8:30 AM EST, June Housing Starts are published.
On Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are printed. We also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
On Friday, July 19 at 8:30 AM EST, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, I am how on my usual summer schedule. I’ll be getting up early every morning to climb an Alpine peak. Then I’ll be riveted to my screen by 3:30 PM when the US markets open, scouring the world for good Trade Alerts.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Market Timing Index
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