https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-25 17:00:132016-10-25 17:00:13Exclusive Insights About the US Election Even Wikileaks Won?t Reveal
Featured Trade: (DON'T MISS THE OCTOBER 26TH LIVE GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (ABOUT FRIDAY?S MASS HACK ATTACK), (PANW), (FEYE), (HACK), (SNE), (THE TAX RATE FALLACY)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) FireEye, Inc. (FEYE) PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) Sony Corporation (SNE)
The distressing emails started coming in on Friday, October 21st like SOS signals from a sinking ship.
First, AWeber went down, stopping me from sending out newsletters and Trade Alerts.
Then Interactive Brokers crashed, making options price updates impossible.
Suddenly, Yahoo Mail wouldn?t take attachments.
Then Twitter went down.
Yikes!
What in the world was going on?
Was this a Soviet hack attack prior to a full scale nuclear strike?
Or was it the END OF THE WORLD?
Cyber security firms were baffled over how quickly and widespread the attack became. Many thought that this was the biggest such attack in Internet history.
I asked one my friends at security giant, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), if it was the Russians again. He replied, ?You better hope it?s the Russians.?
The implication being that the Internet may have launched the attack itself.
What made this attack so damaging was that it was focused on a single company, Manchester, NH based Dyn, one of several companies that host the Domain Name System (DNS), essentially a switchboard for the Internet.
DNS is what allows computers to speak to each other. No DNS, no internet.
The other unusual aspect of this attack is that it was launched from millions of home appliances, like baby monitors, refrigerators and home security systems, instead of unsuspecting home computers.
It was a clever strategy because ?The Internet of Things? has invested far less money in cyber security.
Thus unleashed, these devices bombarded the Dyn website with millions of inquiries, causing it to grind to a halt in what is known as a ?distributed denial of service? (DDoS) attack.
Whether this was a Russian or Chinese attack in response to something the US government has done to them, or a prelude to a disruption of the US presidential election, is anyone?s guess.
The guys upstairs are till trying to figure it all out.
No less figures than Nobel Prize winner Dr. Stephen Hawking and Tesla?s Elon Musk have warned that computers and the Internet may have the power to pose a threat to human existence within a decade.
It all goes to show you how dependent our society has become on strings of ones and zeros lining up correctly, and how fragile that system is.
If the Internet goes down and stays down, millions would starve within months. No kidding!
It all shines a giant spotlight on one of my favorite long-term industries of the future, cyber security. Last week?s attack has just opened up a massive new market for them.
Instead of focusing on mainframes and servers, it now has to look at toasters.
Who?s really reading your email? I bet you?d like to know!
Another day, another hack attack.
There must be a way to make money out of this.
Wait! There is!
Palo Alto Networks is a San Francisco Bay Area cyber security company that offers companies and governments an innovative firewall platform solution for big, network-wide security problems.
In the P&L sweet spot they are.
I know the company well, and have been recommending to my subscribers that they buy the shares for the past year, during which time they tripled.
What? You want me to buy a stock that has just tripled?
Prospects for the firm are booming, with sales growth running at a torrid 30% YOY rate.
Yet, Palo Alto Networks has only 10% market share of an industry that is currently exploding. This is an aggressive, extremely well managed $15 billion company that is about to become a $150 billion company.
Keeping in contact with the Joint Chiefs of Staff on a weekly basis, I am constantly concerned at how serious the cyber security threat has become, yet how little understood it is by the public.
You don?t have to go any further than the management of Sony (SNE), one of the world?s largest multinationals, which was almost wiped out by hackers from one of the poorest and most backward countries in the world.
Upset by the take down of their leader, Kim Jong-un, in a low budget comedy, The Interview, North Korean hackers were able to bring the firm to its knees.
They downloaded the entire contents of Sony?s hard drives, leaking the juicy parts to online journalists (Angelina Jolie?s pay, etc.), and then wiped them clean, destroying some 3,000 computers and 8000 servers.
It was the hacking equivalent of a full-scale nuclear attack.
Sony had to revert to snail mail, couriers, and landline telephone calls to survive. They couldn?t even pay their employees. Some $6 billion in market capitalization was wiped out.
Now here is the scary part.
The FBI has confided in me that if the companies that comprise the S&P 500 were subjected to a Sony level attack, 90% are unlikely to survive. And the Sony attack was actually a primitive, simplistic, low-level attack.
A lot of countries don?t like the United States for any number of reasons. Now they can do something about it. That is a problem. And a market.
Palo Alto Networks maintains the world?s largest database of viruses and malware. That enabled it to trace the Sony attack to the Hermit Kingdom within hours.
It contained several lines of code that were identical to the ?Dark Soul? attack against South Korean banks in 2013 which incinerated 40,000 bank computers and caused $700 million worth of damage.
What the Sony attack revealed was a long history of massive under investment in cyber security by corporations and governments in the US, Europe, and Asia.
The potential future market for cyber security products and services is being wildly underestimated.
The great irony here is that the attack is not against systems, which are usually pretty secure. It is their human users that have become the problem.
Unfortunately, we are have become familiar with ?spoofing? emails where an innocuous email asks the user to ?click here? for an Adobe upgrade, a notice from Yahoo, or a request from PayPal to update your password.
Do so, and you invite lines of code that will eventually make it to your system administrator. Once they have his password, they can access or do anything.
Don?t think only dummies fall for this.
My friend, retired FBI chief Robert Mueller, had his personal account at the Bank of America cleaned out in a similar fashion. What was unusual in his case, they caught the transgressor, after a huge expenditure of bureau resources.
(Hint: if an incoming email appears the slightest bit suspicious, hover your mouse over the sender?s name, and the sending email address will appear. If it looks anything but belt and suspenders safe, don?t open it and mark it as SPAM. Especially watch for the last three letters of the address, which are always a tip off).
The FBI estimates that there are up to 10,000 hackers in the world with the capability of a Sony level attack, many operating from China, Russia, Eastern Europe, or other locations beyond the reach of US extradition treaties.
The global cyber war has been going on for about 15 years now, and the public hears very little of it.
In recent years, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia?s Aramco, destroying 30,000 computers, and briefly shutting down a portion of the country?s oil production.
A major attack was launched against the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas which is owned by promin
ent Israel supporter and major Republican Party contributor, Sheldon Adleson.
There is a happy ending to this piece. You don?t need to place your entire wealth into gold bricks and bury them in the backyard to keep it safe.
If North Korea is a bicycle in the hacking arms race, the US is the F-35 Lightening next generation stealth fighter.
We are winning the cyber war hands down, but you?d never know it. This is a war fought silently, online, and in dark shadows.
President Obama in fact authorized a measured counter attack on North Korea?s information infrastructure, which proved devastating. But it was only a pinprick relative to what we could have done.
Our real cyber weapons are reserved for an actual shooting war sometime in the future. That?s to prevent the enemy from learning our true capabilities and preparing for them.
Imagine a country trying to defend itself with snail mail, couriers, and landline telephone calls from an American assault. Think the Sony attack times 10,000. Nothing would work.
It couldn?t be done.
Congress has so far refused to fund a substantial increase in America?s cyber warfare arsenal, preferring instead to spend money on old heavy metal weapons systems, like aircraft carriers, tanks, and the above mentioned F-35.
It?s all about sucking money out of Washington to create local jobs in red states to win elections. A stepped-up cyber program would focus money almost entirely on Silicon Valley.
Don?t want to do that!
This is how General George Armstrong Custer was sent to the Battle of the Little Big Horn with antiquated 16-year-old Civil War trapdoor Springfield carbines while the Sioux had state of the art Winchester ?yellow boy? repeaters.
And we know how that one turned out!
But don?t get mad. Get even. Take another look at Palo Alto Networks, FireEye (FEYE), and the Pure Funds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK).
DDoS Attack Hotspots
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/DDos-Attack-Map-e1477366974484.jpg199400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-25 01:07:302016-10-25 01:07:30About Friday?s Mass Hack Attack
When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them.
This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you.
According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the top 400 of the 144 million individual tax returns filed in 2012 reported an average gross income of $134 million each. The total adjusted gross income for the top 400 was $10.1 billion.
? The total tax paid by these individuals came to $22.5 million, which works 0.20%. This is an infinitesimal amount compared to the 39.6% paid by the rest of us, and 43.4% when you count the Obamacare add on for high earners (click here for the 2015 tax tables at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040tt.pdf ? This explains why Warren Buffet pays a much lower tax rate than his secretary. It really is true that in America, only the poor people pay taxes.
Look at any international comparison of taxes to GDP, and one can always find the United States at the bottom of the table. Low American taxes are one of the main reasons why I moved my company here from England 20 years ago.
Take a look at the Fortune 500, where one third of the largest companies pay no tax at all, and many that dominate the top of the list, like the oil majors and technology companies, pay only token amounts.?
However, if any politician wants to pander to voters during election time on a tax-cutting platform he will only bluster on about ?high tax rates?, not actual taxes paid.
What the US has that other countries lack is the 73,000 pages of the Internal Revenue Code. It is a 100-year accumulation of deductions, accelerated depreciation rates, tax credits, and other tax breaks that are the end product of intensive lobbying efforts and bribes by special interest groups, corporations, unions, and even religious groups.
If you do have a big tax bill, you need to hire a new accountant.
Take a look at the oil industry again. The oil depletion allowance permits drillers to deduct a substantial portion of the cost of a new well in the first year. When I first got into the oil and gas business 15 years ago, after reading the relevant sections of the tax code, I couldn't understand why everyone wasn't drilling for Texas tea.
The total value of this one tax break to the industry is estimated at $55 billion a year. This explains why we have had three presidents from Texas in the last 50 years. Some of this money ends up in campaign donations.
I have a very simple solution to the country's budget deficit problem. Hit the reset button. Eliminate the Internal Revenue Code. Just set it on fire or send it to the recycling bin. Keep the existing progressive, hockey stick tax rates on income, but eliminate all deductions.
And I mean everything: deductions for dependents, home mortgage interest, medical expenses, charitable contributions, the works. The oil depletion allowance and other corporate loopholes are worth at least $150 billion a year in lost federal revenues. There are no sacred cows.
My revised Form 1040 would be much like the original 1913 return, a postcard that would have only five lines on it:
Name Social Security number Income Tax Rate Tax Due
The budget deficit would disappear overnight. Government spending would shrink dramatically, because you could ditch most of the 100,000 who work for the IRS. Some 1.3 million auditors, CPAs, tax attorneys, and bookkeepers would have to hit the road in search of new work too.
The amount of money that is wasted on tax collection in this country is truly staggering. This is not some pie in the sky concept. This is how taxation already works in most countries, and they seem to get along just fine.
In fact, the whole scheme might even pay for itself.
I Don't See Any Jobs For Former IRS Agents, Do You?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/irs.jpg320213Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-25 01:06:252016-10-25 01:06:25The Tax Rate Fallacy
Featured Trade: (MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK), (THE ?INTRODUCTION TO RISK MANAGEMENT? TRAINING VIDEO IS POSTED), (AMERICA?S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB), (EEM)
iShares, Inc. - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
The financial markets are starting to sniff something big out there, even though traders and investors can?t see it yet.
Right now, the assumption is that Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency and the Senate, but will come 10 seats short of seizing the House of Representatives.
Donald Trump utterly failed to engineer a dramatic comeback at the last debate, digging himself into more and deeper holes instead.
That brings us eight more years of gridlocked government in Washington.
But what if that doesn?t happen?
What if, instead, Hillary pulls off a ?Grand Bargain? with House speaker, Paul Ryan, during her first 100 days in office?
Paul Ryan, chastened by a recent thrashing at the polls, might become more amenable and inclined to compromise.
A forewarned Clinton, wary of Barrack Obama?s example of the past eight years, might be ready to deal as well.
At the very least, they should be able to get bills through Congress concerning matters they both agree on.
What would such a grand bargain look like?
Create 30-year tax exempt bonds through which corporations can repatriate their $2.5 trillion in hidden offshore profits.
The money would be earmarked only for a national infrastructure revitalization effort.
Some 1 million blue-collar jobs would be created, largely in the states with the highest unemployment rates.
Since the government would be borrowing at less than the long-term inflation rate, probably at 1.5%-2.0%, it would essentially be getting the infrastructure for free.
However, the new taxes generated by the new incomes and efficiencies would be absolutely mammoth.
What would the stock market do in such a scenario?
It would probably rise 20% by the end of 2017. Bond prices would collapse, and gold, commodities, energy and the US dollar would soar.
The economic recovery continues for another three years, with US GDP growth recovering 3%. Then all of my ?Roaring Twenties? factors kick in.
We can?t know for sure how things will play out until after November 8th. That is when both Clinton and Ryan know what they have to work with.
Sounds like a win-win-win to me.
Who will be the big beneficiaries?
You, me, and risk takers everywhere.
You may want to sit down and smoke a cigarette to digest this one. It is a potential outcome of positively Rooseveltian proportions.
With that said, we have an incredibly boring week in store for us next week.
It will confirm my expectation that markets will continue to trade in narrow ranges for the remaining 12 trading days until the presidential election.
However, it should be noted that we are now well into the Q3 earnings period, and most companies are reporting better than expected, especially technology companies and financials.
That bodes well for the post election stock market.
Monday, October 24th at 9:45 AM EST, we get the PMI Manufacturing Flash Index.
We also get no less than four different Fed speakers that day, so the bond market should be dancing the watusi.
On Tuesday, October 25th at 9:00 AM EST we get a new monthly update on the S&P 500 Case Shiller Home Price Index, which should confirm continued price increases in the residential real estate market. Remember, supplies are short.
On Wednesday, October 26th at 9.45 AM EST, the PMI Services Flash Index is published. Now that we are short the oil market (USO), we should also pay careful attention to the EIA Petroleum Status Report, due out at 10:30 AM EST.
Thursday, October 27th will be a big data day, with Weekly Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM EST, and September Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM EST.
Friday, October 28th at 1:00 PM delivers us only the Baker HughesRig Count. Worryingly, the trend has been up for 16 out of the past 17 weeks.
This should help cap oil prices for the short term which is what my (USO) trade is all about.
Good luck and good trading.? Keep your hard hat on.
John Thomas The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-at-Kentucky-Derby.jpg400367DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-24 01:08:142016-10-24 01:08:14Market Outlook for the Coming Week
Now that you know how to make money in the options market, thanks to my Trade Alert service, I am going to teach you how to hang on to it.
There is no point in being clever and executing profitable trades only to lose your profits through some simple, careless mistakes.
So I have just posted a new training video on Risk Management.
The first goal of risk control to preserve whatever capital you have. I tell people that I am too old to lose all my money and start over again as a junior trader at Morgan Stanley. So I am pretty careful when it comes to risk control.
The other goal of Risk control is the art of managing your portfolio to make sure it is profitable, no matter what happens in the marketplace. Ideally, you want to be a winner whether the market moves up, down, or sideways.
Remember, we are not trying to beat an index here. Our goal is to make absolute returns, or real dollars, at all times. You can?t eat relative performance, nor can you use it to pay your bills.
So the second goal of every portfolio manager is to make it bomb proof. You never know when a flock of black swans are going to come out of nowhere, or another geopolitical shock occurs, causing the market crash.
I?ll also show you how to use my Trade Alert service to squeeze every dollar out of your trading.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/John-Thomas4-e1448053807101.jpg193400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-24 01:07:152016-10-24 01:07:15The ?Introduction to Risk Management? Training Video is Posted
?Anyone who procrastinates with new technology will lose.? said Ajay Banga, the CEO of Master Card.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Charlie-Chaplin.jpg182231Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-24 01:05:272016-10-24 01:05:27October 24, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 26TH LIVE GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (DEFLATION IS STILL ACCELERATING), (USO), (CORN), (SOYB), (WEAT), (DBA), (THE WORST TIMED TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD)
United States Oil (USO) Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN) Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
A number of friends have recently approached me asking the best way to refinance their home.
Should they be ultra conservative and lock in a historically low 3.6% conventional fixed rate 30-year loan?
Or should they throw caution to the wind and be seduced by a 5/1 ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) available for half the monthly payment?
I tell them that the answer is obvious.
I ask them to consider the average real wage gain for US blue-collar workers over the past 30 years which happens to be zero.
If my answer puzzles them, I then direct them to the recent statement by the Saudi Oil Minister, who says he is happy with prices at the current $50 a barrel level.
If they then appear perplexed, I point out to them that US ethanol production just surpassed a once unimaginable 1 million barrels a day, a new all time high.
Corn prices have fallen so far that it is cheaper to burn food than to eat it.
At this point, the expression on my friends? faces is now one of complete befuddlement. They start checking their watch, their iPhone for any new text messages, look for new tweets, or updates to their Facebook account.
Now my friends are utterly clueless. Wasn?t this supposed to be a conversation about homes, loans, and interest rates.
If they still don?t get it, I then spell it out more clearly, with the appropriate soaring logic and literary flourishes.
The bottom line for all of these disparate data points is that deflation is accelerating.
The continuing collapsing cost of many commodities is still driving prices relentlessly downward.
Adding fuel to the fire is the relentless march of technology, which is replacing expensive humans with cheap machines, further lowering costs.
The offshoring of jobs, once a major driver of the ongoing price collapse, is barely a factor anymore.? Rapidly rising wages are steadily pricing Chinese labor out of the market.
Sure, there has been some modest cost increases on the US wage front with the new minimum wage movement. Many cities like Seattle and San Francisco have already mandated wage hikes from $8 to $15 an hour.
But these only apply to a tiny fraction of the total job market.
This will only bring higher prices for those who eat fast food cheeseburgers, tacos, and burritos, which my doctors have expressly forbidden me to consume.
What this means is that interest rates are going to remain far lower for longer than even the Federal Reserve can imagine.
Sure, we will get a 25 basis point rise in December, followed by a second one in 2018. But that may be it.
As unbelievable as it may seem, we might go into the next recession WITH INTEREST RATES ALREADY CLOSE TO ZERO!
All of this makes my friends? choice about how to refinance their home a complete no brainer.
Take the 5/1 ARM, NOW!
Chances are that we will enter a recession sometime in the next five years, before the first five-year interest rate reset. Then they can refinance again, probably at an interest rate even lower than the subterranean one they are getting now.
How low can home mortgage rates go?
One of my Latvian readers informed me that with Euro interest rates at -0.40, the interest rate on his 5/1 ARM home loan is 1.9%.
By the way, real estate in Latvia is booming.
They can also reconsider the 30-year fixed rate at that time, as I expect inflation to return with a vengeance sometime in the 2020s.
More than a few homeowners have already figured out that the only way to afford sky-high housing prices in San Francisco and New York is to finance them with the ultra low giveaway cost of money.
The only pre conditions for this plan to work is for them to keep their jobs, the payments on time, and their credit rating up.
At this stage, my friends thank me effusively and rush off to call their loan brokers.
People who have known me a long time are used to me making incredible, spectacular, out-of-consensus long-term forecasts which eventually come true.
Gold is going from $34 to $1,000 an ounce (1972).
Of course the Nikkei Average is about to rise tenfold from Y3,500 to Y35,000 (1982).
Dow 10,000 by 2,000? You betcha (1992)!
Why can?t oil collapse from $100 to $50 if we make peace with Iran (2014)?
Consider it all part of being Mad.
So, Where?s the Inflation?
$50 Oil? No Problem!
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Saudi-Oil-Minister-e1477019538915.jpg243400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-21 01:07:552016-10-21 01:07:55Deflation is Still Accelerating
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