Global Market Comments
October 15, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(YALE?S ROBERT SHILLER BAGS NOBEL ECONOMICS PRIZE),
(THE TRUE COST OF OIL),
(USO), (XOM)
United States Oil (USO)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Global Market Comments
October 15, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(YALE?S ROBERT SHILLER BAGS NOBEL ECONOMICS PRIZE),
(THE TRUE COST OF OIL),
(USO), (XOM)
United States Oil (USO)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
It isn?t often when a friend of mine wins a Nobel Prize. But that?s what happened this weekend when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the prestigious award to Yale University?s Robert Shiller. Shiller, along with Eugene Fama, and Lars Peter Hanson of the University of Chicago will share the $1.23 million cash award for their work on market pricing of assets.
Ironically, the New Haven based Shiller takes an approach that is completely the opposite of the theories propounded by his Chicago colleagues. Shiller believes that human psychology can lead to huge mispricings of assets, while Fama and Hanson argue that markets are much more efficient than that. Having spent 45 years in the financial markets myself, I think that Shiller is hands down correct.
I met with Shiller last year to get his take on the long term future of our economy. He is the kind of imp like, peripatetic college professor you might expect to find in a Disney movie. Highly animated and jumping from one radical idea to the next, it is hard to keep up with his stream of consciousness torrent of economic innovations.
After a two-hour barrage, I was so intellectually exhausted that all I could do when I returned home was to plop down on the sofa with a Jack on the rocks and watch Fox News.
You know Robert Shiller as the creator of the Standard & Poors-Case Shiller Real Estate Index, which tracks 20 major residential housing markets around the US. His data was originally the domain of a handful of real estate brokers with a theoretical bent, or securitizing investment bankers. But when the real estate collapse began to accelerate in 2007, it suddenly became the data point du jour for every property investor, business news network, and hedge fund manager.
Shiller thinks that financial markets are so emotional that they are beyond rational analysis. The systemic vulnerability of financial markets was a major cause of the 2008 crash and is still not well understood. He argues that people should have a 100-year time horizon when making investments, because that?s how long today?s children will live. Does anyone have the trading call for the Spring of 2113? (No typo!)
He says that teaching finance today is about as popular as being the university Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) instructor during the Vietnam War. People are angry at bankers, as the Occupy Wall Street crowd has so amply shown, which Shiller sees as our own ?Arab Spring?. Since 1990, the top 1% of the wealthy have seen their net worth soar by 60%, while it has fallen for the other 99%.
When Occupiers discovered that their movement could cause governments to fall, it rapidly spilled beyond its Madrid, Spain origins. But the financial industry is not all bad. Witness the miracle in emerging markets, which has been made possible through new capital provided by western investment bankers.
Robert titillated me with some highly creative innovations, which we may see adopted in coming years. I?ll give you the highlights.
*Options on individual real estate markets, now six years old, will go mainstream and finally become liquid as individuals seek to protect their home equity during economic downturns. This will become a major area of new profits for Wall Street.
*?Continuous mortgages? should be created whereby the debt is never paid off, but is assumed from one owner to the next in exchange for a higher interest rate. If you package many of these together and securitize them, it would create far more efficient loan markets for consumers.
*The government already issues plenty of bonds, and next should sell equity in itself in one-trillionth increments. That puts the value of the government?s share price today at about $16.50. If the economy grows, the share price should go up, to the benefit of investors.
*Tax rates for the wealthy should rise with inequality. The more wealth that is concentrated with the 1%, the higher the maximum tax rate should go. Remember, the maximum rate was 90% at the time of the Roosevelt administration during the Great Depression, nearly triple today?s 39.5% rate.
*The actual impact of high frequency traders, who he refers to as ?millisecond traders?, is vastly exaggerated.
*Although the new ?crowd funding? bill has been described as the ?Boiler Room Full Employment Act?, it will provide a valuable source of venture capital for micro startups. Those earning only $40,000 a year are limited to an $800 bet, with the maximum legal investment set at $10,000.
*Some 14% of the total economic activity of the US involves security. Just having people watching people is an enormous waste of resources.
*?For profit? nonprofits, called benefit corporations, should proliferate to advance specific social goals. These should work well as they pay little in wages and enjoy community support. They are already legal in eight states.
The Nobel Prize was created by Sweden?s Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite. It is believed he did so to atone for the millions who died from the military use of his product. Nobel?s original intention was to assist the mining industry. Prizes for physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, and peace were first awarded in 1901. The prize for economics was added in 1968.
The prize has long been shrouded in controversy. Some were awarded to scientists whose theories were later disproven. Others who richly deserved prizes never got them, like Jonas Salk, the discoverer of the Salk vaccine, which wiped out polio. The Academy once considered revoking one Nobel awarded to the brilliant chemist, Fritz Haber, because he went on to invent mustard gas for the German Army in WWI. Many peace and literature prizes in recent years have had a decidedly anti-American bent to them.
Of the 835 prizes awarded to date, about 10% were to individuals at California based universities, with UC Berkeley far and away taking the lead. The Swedish Royal family was an early investor in my hedge fund. So, in 2001, the 100th anniversary of the prize, the crown princes of Sweden invited me to attend a lunch honoring the California winners, 17 of whom were living at the time. As a financial guy, I was assigned to sit next to Milton Friedman who won his economics prize in 1976. The conversation was fascinating.
If you would like to attend one of Shiller?s economics classes for free and expose yourself to more out of the box economic thinking, you can do so through regular offerings of his online courses. To sign up for Open Yale University, which Time Magazine lists as one of the top educational websites, please click the following link: http://oyc.yale.edu.
My annual electric bill here in sunny San Francisco comes to $4,800 a year. Since the California power authorities have set a goal of 33% alternative energy sources by 2020, PG&E (PGE) has the most aggressive green energy program in the country (click here for ?The Solar Boom in California?. More expensive solar, wind, geothermal, and biodiesel power sources mean that my electric bill may rise by $300 a year to about $5,100.
Now let?s look at my gasoline bill. Driving 15,000 miles a year, my old Toyota Highlander Hybrid used 600 gallons a year, which at $4/gallon for gas cost me $2,400/year. So my annual combined electric power/gasoline bill was $7,500.
My new Tesla Model S-1 (TSLA) will cost me $180/year in battery charges to cover the same distance. By switching to the Tesla, my total energy cost plunges to $4,980 a year, down 34%. That?s a big saving. Now you know why alternative energy is so popular in the Golden State.
There is an additional sweetener, which I?m not even counting. I also spent $1,000/year on maintenance on my old car, including tune-ups and oil changes. The Tesla will cost me nothing, as there are no oil changes or tune ups, and my engine drops from using 1,000 overcooked parts to just eleven. We?re basically talking tire rotations only for the first 100,000 miles.
There is a further enormous pay off down the road. We are currently spending $100 billion a year in cash up front fighting our wars in the Middle East, or $273 million a day! Add to that another $200 billion in back end costs, including wear and tear on capital equipment, and lifetime medical care for 5 million veterans, some of whom are severely torn up.
We import 7.5 million barrels of oil each day, or 2.7 billion barrels a year, worth $270 billion at $100/barrel (click here for the US Energy Information Agency stats). Some 2 million b/d, or 730 million barrels/year worth $60 billion comes from the Middle East. That means we are paying a de facto tax which amounts to $136/barrel, taking the true price for Saudi crude up to a staggering $219/barrel!
We are literally spending $100 billion a year so we can buy $60 billion worth of oil, and that?s not counting the lives lost. Even worse, 80% of total Persian Gulf exports now go to Asia, so we are now spending this money to assure China?s supplies, not ours. Only a government could come up with such an idiotic plan.
There is another factor to count in. Anyone in the oil industry will tell you that, of the current $100 price for crude, $30 is a risk premium driven by fears of instability in the Middle East. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, every available tanker, and thousands of rail cars are all chocked full with unwanted oil. This is why prices remain high.
The International Energy Agency says the world is now using 90 million b/d, or 32 billion barrels a year worth $3.2 trillion. This means that the risk premium is costing global consumers $960 billion/year. If we abandon that oil source, the risk premium should fall substantially, or disappear completely. What instability there becomes China?s headache, not ours.
If enough of the country converts to alternatives and adopts major conservation measures, then we can quit importing oil from that violent part of the world.? No more sending our president to bow and shake hands with King Abdullah. Oil prices would fall, our military budget would drop, the federal budget deficit would shrink, and our taxes would likely get cut.
One Tesla shrinks demand for 750 gallons of gasoline, or 1,500 gallons of oil per year. That means that we need?20.4 million?electric vehicles on the road to eliminate the need for the 2 million b/d we are importing from the Middle East. The Department of Energy has provided a $1.6 billion loan to build a Nissan Leaf plant in Smyrna, Tennessee.
Add that to the?million Chevy Volts, Tesla S-1?s, Mitsubishi iMiEV?s, and other electric cars hitting the market in the next few years. Also taking a bite out of our oil consumption are the 2 million hybrids now on the road to be joined by a third million in the next two years. That goal is not so far off.
Yes, these are simplistic, back of the envelope calculations that don?t take into account other national security considerations, or our presence on the global stage. But these numbers show that even a modest conversion to alternatives can have an outsized impact on the bigger picture.
By the way, please don?t tell Exxon Mobil (XOM) or BP (BP) I told you this. They get 80% of their earnings from importing oil to the US. I don?t want to get a knock on the door in the middle of the night.
Global Market Comments
October 14, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK),
(A SAD FAREWELL TO HELEN THOMAS)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $191.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance.
Tickets are available for a bargain $399. If you buy the premium $499 package you will be invited to the Friday 6:00 pm VIP cocktail reception, where you will meet luminaries from the trading world, such as tradeMONSTRS?s Jon and Pete Najarian, Guy Adami, Jeff Mackey, and of course, myself, John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All in all, it is great value for money, and I?ll personally throw in a ride on the City by the Bay?s storied cable cars for free.
Jon Najarian is the founder of optionMonster, which offers clients a series of custom crafted computer algorithms that give a crucial edge when trading the market. Called Heat Seeker ?, it monitors no less than 180,000 trades a second to give an early warning of large trades that are about to hit the stock, options, and futures markets.
To give you an idea of how much data this is, think of downloading the entire contents of the Library of Congress, about 20 terabytes of data, every 30 minutes. His firm maintains a 10 gigabyte per second conduit that transfers data at 6,000 times the speed of a T-1 line, the fastest such pipe in the civilian world. Jon?s team then distills this ocean of data on his website into the top movers of the day. ?As with the NFL,? says Jon, ?you can?t defend against speed.?
The system catches big hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds shifting large positions, giving subscribers a peak at the bullish or bearish tilt of the market. It also offers accurate predictions of imminent moves in single stock and index volatility.
Jon started his career as a linebacker for the Chicago Bears, and I can personally attest that he still has a handshake that?s like a steel vice grip. Maybe it was his brute strength that enabled him to work as a pit trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for 22 years, where he was known by his floor call letters of ?DRJ.? He formed Mercury Trading in 1989 and then sold it to the mega hedge fund, Citadel, in 2004.
Jon developed his patented algorithms for Heat Seeker? with his brother Pete, another NFL player (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings), who like Jon, is a regular face in the financial media.
In order to register for the conference, please click here. There you will find the conference agenda, bios of the speakers, and a picture of my own ugly mug. I look forward to seeing you there.
Cling! Cling!
Global Market Comments
October 10, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BEST ETF?S OF 2013),
Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)
Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT)
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN)
Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX)
The PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW)
The First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy Index Fund (FAN)
The Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH)
The Global X Social Media Index ETF (SOCL)
The PowerShares Dynamic Biotechnology & Genome Portfolio (PBE)
The PowerShares Gold Dragon China Portfolio (PGJ)
(A NOTE ON THE TESLA FIRE), (TSLA)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
You can? keep a good stock down. That?s the obvious message on Tesla (TLSA) shares in the wake of the fire that consumed one of its $80,000 Model?s S-1?s on a Washington state road after it ran over the rear bumper of the truck it was following. The video was quickly plastered all over YouTube (click here to view).
This was the first S-1 to catch fire since the production run started two years ago. That compares to the roughly 400 gasoline powered vehicles that catch fire on US roads nearly every day. If you really want to see how volatile gasoline is, try lighting a campfire with it some day. Even tossing lit matches in from a great distance, as I once did, you?ll be lucky to have your eyebrows left. I didn?t.
Tesla followed up quickly with an analysis and a letter with a complete explanation sent to all other S-1 drivers signed by none other than CEO Elon Musk. I have included the entire text below in italics.
What happened to the hapless driver of the burning S-1? He is eagerly awaiting delivery of another S-1 from the Fremont, California factory. It seems, he loves the car, and can?t wait to get back into one.
?Earlier this week, a Model?S traveling at highway speed struck a large metal object, causing significant damage to the vehicle. A curved section that fell off a semi-trailer was recovered from the roadway near where the accident occurred and, according to the road crew that was on the scene, appears to be the culprit. The geometry of the object caused a powerful lever action as it went under the car, punching upward and impaling the Model?S with a peak force on the order of 25 tons. Only a force of this magnitude would be strong enough to punch a 3 inch diameter hole through the quarter inch armor plate protecting the base of the vehicle.
The Model?S owner was nonetheless able to exit the highway as instructed by the onboard alert system, bring the car to a stop and depart the vehicle without injury. A fire caused by the impact began in the front battery module ? the battery pack has a total of 16 modules ? but was contained to the front section of the car by internal firewalls within the pack. Vents built into the battery pack directed the flames down towards the road and away from the vehicle.
When the fire department arrived, they observed standard procedure, which was to gain access to the source of the fire by puncturing holes in the top of the battery's protective metal plate and applying water. For the Model?S lithium-ion battery, it was correct to apply water (vs. dry chemical extinguisher), but not to puncture the metal firewall, as the newly created holes allowed the flames to then vent upwards into the front trunk section of the Model?S. Nonetheless, a combination of water followed by dry chemical extinguisher quickly brought the fire to an end.
It is important to note that the fire in the battery was contained to a small section near the front by the internal firewalls built into the pack structure. At no point did fire enter the passenger compartment.
Had a conventional gasoline car encountered the same object on the highway, the result could have been far worse. A typical gasoline car only has a thin metal sheet protecting the underbody, leaving it vulnerable to destruction of the fuel supply lines or fuel tank, which causes a pool of gasoline to form and often burn the entire car to the ground. In contrast, the combustion energy of our battery pack is only about 10% of the energy contained in a gasoline tank and is divided into 16 modules with firewalls in between. As a consequence, the effective combustion potential is only about 1% that of the fuel in a comparable gasoline sedan.
The nationwide driving statistics make this very clear: there are 150,000 car fires per year according to the National Fire Protection Association, and Americans drive about 3 trillion miles per year according to the Department of Transportation. That equates to 1 vehicle fire for every 20 million miles driven, compared to 1 fire in over 100 million miles for Tesla. This means you are 5 times more likely to experience a fire in a conventional gasoline car than a Tesla!
For consumers concerned about fire risk, there should be absolutely zero doubt that it is safer to power a car with a battery than a large tank of highly flammable liquid.?
?
Elon Musk
CEO,
Tesla Motors
Global Market Comments
October 9, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CUTTING BACK MY RISK),
(SPY), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (AAPL), (NFLX), (HLF), (VIX),
(WHAT?S GOING ON WITH THE VOLATILITY INDEX?),
(VIX), (VXX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Herbalife Ltd. (HLF)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
After crawling off the mat at the 12% level, and rising all the way back up to 21%, traders are wondering if the Volatility Index (VIX) is finally coming back to life. Or is this just another dead cat bounce?
It wasn?t supposed to work that way. Falling markets should send investors scrambling to buy downside protection in the form of put options, which would automatically send the (VIX) soaring. Except when they don?t.
I spoke to over a dozen market participants yesterday attempting to root out the cause of this seeming anomaly. All I got was shrugs or idle speculation. A (VXX) at this level, the ETF for the (VIX) assumes that the complacency now endemic in the market will continue for several more months. It is betting that the S&P 500 will continue moving sideways or up with no pullbacks greater that 5%. Oh, really?
It is also discounting a rise in the (SPX) to 1,750, based on a multiple expansion from 16 to 17, while corporate earnings are falling. This will see confirmation when Q3, 2013 earnings start to hit in October. Oh, really, again?
I finally got through to some friends in the Chicago pits who explained what was going on. A sizeable portion of the trading community believes that we will see a rise in volatility someday, but not in the near future. So they have been buying October call options in the (VIX). To pay for these and hedge out their risk, they have been selling short calls in the front months of December and March at much higher implied volatilities.
Since the (VXX) focuses on only the front two months of the options calendar, it has taken an inordinate brunt of the selling. This is why the (VXX) has continued a rapid decent even on days when the (VIX) was stable and the Dow was down. Needless to say, it has been a huge moneymaker for the early participants.
How does this end? At some point we do get a serious sell off in the stock market, and the (VIX) rockets back up to 30%, or higher. That means that anyone who initiates this position now will get slaughtered. But the long-term players will simply write those losses off against the substantial short dated premium they have taken in until then.
As long as this dynamic is in place, there really is no limit to how far the (VXX) can fall. As traders roll from one expiring month to the next, they will continue to hammer volatility.
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