Global Market Comments
January 8, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER?S Q1, 2015 VIEWS),
(SPY), (XLV), (XLK), (PCLN), (F),
(TLT), (TBT),
(FXE), (EUO), (FXA), (FXB),
(GLD), (GDX), (SLV),
(USO)
(VIX), (VXX)
(THE MARKETS ARE NOT RIGGED)
(TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)
The Select Sector SPDR Trust - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares Trust II - ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB)
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
Market Vectors ETF Trust - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
Mad Day Trader Jim Parker is expecting the first quarter of 2015 to offer plenty of volatility and loads of great trading opportunities. He thinks the scariest moves may already be behind us.
After a ferocious week of decidedly ?RISK OFF? markets, the sweet spots going forward will be of the ?RISK ON? variety. Sector leadership could change daily, with a brutal rotation, depending on whether the price of oil is up, down, or sideways.
The market is paying the price of having pulled forward too much performance from 2015 back into the final month of 2014, when we all watched the December melt up slack jawed.
Jim is a 40-year veteran of the financial markets and has long made a living as an independent trader in the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He worked his way up from a junior floor runner to advisor to some of the world?s largest hedge funds. We are lucky to have him on our team and gain access to his experience, knowledge and expertise.
Jim uses a dozen proprietary short-term technical and momentum indicators to generate buy and sell signals. Below are his specific views for the new quarter according to each asset class.
Stocks
The S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ have met all of Jim?s short-term downside targets, and a sustainable move up from here is in the cards. But if NASDAQ breaks 4,100 to the downside, all bets are off.
His favorite sector is health care (XLV), which seems immune to all troubles, and may have already seen its low for the year. Jim is also enamored with technology stocks (XLK).
The coming year will be a great one for single stock pickers. Priceline (PCLN) is a great short, dragged down by the weak Euro, where they get much of their business. Ford Motors (F) probably bottomed yesterday, and is a good offsetting long.
Bonds
Jim is not inclined to stand in front of a moving train, so he likes the Treasury bond market (TLT), (TBT). He thinks the 30-year yield could reach an eye popping 2.25%. A break there is worth another 10 basis points. Bonds are getting a strong push from a flight to safety, huge US capital inflows, and an endlessly strong dollar.
Foreign Currencies
A short position in the Euro (FXE), (EUO) is the no brainer here. The problem is one of good new entry points. Real traders always have trouble selling into a free fall. But you might see profit taking as we approach $1.16 in the cash market.
The Aussie (FXA) is being dragged down by the commodity collapse and an indifferent government. The British pound (FXB) is has yet to recover from the erosion of confidence ignited by the Scotland independence vote and has further mud splattered upon it by the weak Euro.
Precious Metals
GOLD (GLD) could be in a good range pivoting off of the recent $1,140 bottom. The gold miners (GDX) present the best opportunity at catching some volatility. The barbarous relic is pulling up the price of silver (SLV) as well. Buy the hard breaks, and then take quick profits. In a deflationary world, there is no long-term trade here. It is a real field of broken dreams.
Energy
Jim is not willing to catch a falling knife in the oil space (USO). He has too few fingers as it is. It has become too difficult to trade, as the algorithms are now in charge, and a lot of gap moves take place in the overnight markets. Don?t bother with fundamentals as they are irrelevant. No one really knows where the bottom in oil is.
Agriculturals
Jim is friendly to the ags (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), but only on sudden pullbacks. However, there are no new immediate signals here. So he is just going to wait. The next directional guidance will come with the big USDA report at the end of January. The ags are further clouded by a murky international picture, with the collapse of the Russian ruble allowing the rogue nation to undercut prices on the international market.
Volatility
Volatility (VIX), (VXX) is probably going to peak out her soon in the $23-$25 range. The next week or so will tell for sure. A lot hangs on Friday?s December nonfarm payroll report. Every trader out there remembers that the last three visits to this level were all great shorts. However, the next bottom will be higher, probably around the $16 handle.
If you are not already getting Jim?s dynamite Mad Day Trader service, please get yourself the unfair advantage you deserve. Just email Nancy in customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and ask for the $1,500 a year upgrade to your existing Global Trading Dispatch service.
Volatility Weekly
Volatility Monthly
Euro to the Dollar
Global Market Comments
January 7, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A VERY WESTERN CHRISTMAS),
(THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS),
(USO), (TSLA), (GE),
(TESTIMONIAL)
United States Oil ETF (USO)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
General Electric Company (GE)
?
This year I had the pleasure of spending a nostalgic Christmas day in Virginia City, Nevada, now a national historic monument.
The old western town is the home of the famed Comstock load, once the world?s largest silver deposit, discovered in 1859. The ore mined here played a major role in building San Francisco into an important city, and financed the Union?s victory in the Civil War.
It was here that Mark Twain landed his first job as a writer for the town?s first newspaper, the Territorial Enterprise, after failing to find any silver of his own. I have read his complete works (Adventures of Tom Sawyer, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, Innocents Abroad, etc.), and owe much to the legendary humorist for my own oddball, ironic sense of humor.
Walking the creaky boardwalk, one admires the many sagging brick, false front buildings, their rusted cast iron shutters nearly falling off their hinges. You almost expect to run into the former riverboat captain around the next corner. Where bordellos, saloons, and gambling dens once flourished, one now finds T-shirt purveyors, gem merchants, candy shops, and period antique stores.
You older folks will remember Virginia City as a central location in Bonanza, the most popular American TV series of the 1960?s. Every week, the determined, but moral, Cartwright family prevailed over a never ending assortment of villains and the formidable challenges of living in an untamed West. Visitors today still flock to the site of their imaginary ranch, the Ponderosa, named for a local pine tree.
The site is still littered with the detritus of the mid 19th century mining boom, preserved in an eternally arid desert. Wander aimlessly at your own peril. Abandoned mining shafts are everywhere, marked, or not.
I first came here as a kid during the early 1960?s, eagerly collecting old bottles turned blue by a scorching sun, as well as a shoebox full of Indian arrowheads.
I understand that this sort of thing is now illegal. This time, I satisfied myself with throwing a few 100 pound chunks of colorful basalt into the back of the truck to decorate my cactus garden at home.
The highlight of the day was a trip on the Candy Cane Express, operated by the old Virginia and Truckee Railroad. We chugged an hour out into the barren desert mountains, entertained by an assortment of cider bearing elves, singing Christmas carols, and blowing the steam whistle at every opportunity.
The weather was blustery, with intermittent snow flurries. A heard of mustangs, or wild horses, ran along side the tracks, thrilling the children more than Santa Claus, and enthralling the vacationing European photographers.
The federal Bureau of Land Management estimates there are 200,000 of these beasts still roaming free in the western wilderness (down from 2 million 100 years ago). You can adopt one with the payment of a $100 fee, if you promise not to eat it.
On our return, we repaired to the Bucket of Blood saloon for some complimentary sarsaparillas, an ancient predecessor of Coca Cola, and some rollicking country western music from the Comstock Cowboys.
There we toasted a Merry Christmas to all.
Mustangs Taking a Break
Dear Jim Parker,
I cannot thank you enough for the service that you are providing. ?In my case, I can honestly say that you are accomplishing your goals of enabling me to trade profitably. ?
I wish you a well-earned rest and the best of joy with your family and friends during this season. ??
Rene Y.
Retired Canadian Farmer
?2015 is setting up to be a repeat of 1999,? the year when NASDAQ delivered a nonstop melt up, rocketing by a stunning 85%, said my friend and hedge fund legend, David Tepper.
Global Market Comments
January 6, 2015
Fiat Lux
2015 Annual Asset Class Review
FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Featured Trades:
(SPX), (QQQ), (XLF), (XLE), (XLI), (XLY), (EEM), (SCTY), (TAN),
(TLT), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (PCY), (MUB), (HCP)
(FXE), (EUO), (FXC), (FXA), (YCS), (FXY), (CYB)
(FCX), (VALE), (MOO), (DBA), (MOS), (MON), (AGU), (POT), (PHO), (FIW), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (JJG)
(DIG), (RIG), (USO), (DUG), (UNG), (OXY), (X)
(GLD), (DGP), (SLV), (PPTL), (PALL)
(ITB)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
PowerShares Fundamental High Yld Corp Bd (PHB)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
HCP, Inc. (HCP)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
Vale S.A. (VALE)
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Monsanto Company (MON)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG)
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
United States Oil (USO)
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
United States Steel Corp. (X)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Premium Energy Corp. (PPTL)
ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL)
iShares US Home Construction (ITB)
Global Market Comments
January 5, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE AMERICAN ONSHORING TREND IS ACCELERATING),
(GE), (TSLA),
(TESTIMONIAL)
General Electric Company (GE)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Global Market Comments
January 2, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS),
(HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP),
(MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM),
(TESTIMONIAL)
I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who had lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky's Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New York.
This is a particularly bitter pill for Dr. Greenspan to take, because he is an internationally known authority on Ponzi schemes, and just published a book entitled Annals of Gullibility-Why We Get Duped and How to Avoid It. It is a veritable history of scams, starting with Eve's subterfuge to get Adam to eat the apple, to the Trojan horse and the Pied Piper, up to more modern day cons in religion, politics, science, medicine, and yes, personal investments.
Madoff's genius was that the returns he fabricated were small, averaging only 11% a year, making them more believable. In the 1920's, the original Ponzi promised his Boston area Italian immigrant customers a 50% return every 45 days. Madoff also feigned exclusivity, often turning potential investors down, leading them to become even more desirous of joining his club. For a deeper look into Greenspan's fascinating, but expensively learned observations and analysis, go to his website at http://www.stephen-greenspan.com/.
