Hot Tips Archives

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 14, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Auto Loans Hit the Highest Delinquency Rate in 19 Years. Some 9% of all car loans are more than 3 months late. Is this the preview to the next financial crisis? Click here.

2) Business Confidence Hits a Two-Year Low, and Consumer Confidence hits an eight-year low. It seems a government shutdown and a stock market crash are not good for business. Now that stocks are up, will confidence return? Click here.

3) Google Investing $13 Billion in Data Centers. They must think their business outlook is pretty good. So do I. Buy (GOOGL). Click here.

4) Levi Strauss to Go Public. They have 501 blue jeans with shiny copper rivets, but it is a terrible investment idea. A low margin retailer in a cutthroat industry competing with China? You must be kidding. It’s another market-topping indicator. Click here.

5) Inflation Hits a One-Month Low, with the Consumer Price index Coming in at only 1.9%. It means the next recession will bring the deflation. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY I’M AVOIDING PFIZER LIKE THE PLAGUE)

(PFE), (MRK), (MVS),

(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),

(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(FACEBOOK’S NEW PROBLEM),

(FB), (GOOGL), (TRIP), (EXPE)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 13, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) US National Debt Tops $22 Trillion, surpassing the GDP. And you wondered why I was making so much money selling short the bond market? The day when the Feds crowd out private borrowers is fast approaching. The last time we ran a tab like this we were winning WWII. Click here.

2) Trump is Going to Miss His March 1 China Deadline, and the stock market could care less. Imagine how high stocks would be flying now if we WEREN’T flighting a trade war. Click here.

3) Charles Schwab/Fidelity Price War Cuts Commissions to the Bone. It’s just a matter of time before they hit zero. All the money is made now selling your order flow to high-frequency traders. Time to renegotiate your relationship with your broker. Click here.

4) US Job Openings Hit Record High, with 7.6 million “help wanted” signs in December, says the JOLTS REPORT Yes, even your uncle Ernie can get a job now. So, where is the wage inflation? Click here.

5) In the Meantime, American Personal Debt is Soaring, hitting a new apex at $13.5 trillion. Some 9.1% of this is already delinquent and credit cards are being canceled at an alarming pace. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(BIDDING MORE FOR THE STARS),

(SPY), (INDU), (NVDA)

(NOW THE FAT LADY IS REALLY SINGING FOR THE BOND MARKET),

(TLT), (TBT)
(WHY THE FUTURE IS NOT IN FURNITURE),

(W), (NWARF), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 12, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Oil Dives on Shutdown Prospects, off 5% in a week discounting another hit to the global economy. Keep those hedges working. Click here.

2) Amazon Added More Square Feet than Any Other Company last year, bringing the total to 288 million square feet. That is a staggering 28 World Trade Centers. Do they know something we don’t? Buy the dips (AMZN).

3) Brexit Destroys the UK Economy, as the deadline nears with growth at a seven-year low. Will they fill in the Channel Tunnel? Click here.

4) Investors Dashed for Cash in 2018, and Now it’s Trash. With stocks up 9.4% in 2019, or some 2,200 Dow points, many are left to read about it in the newspapers. Mad Hedge caught the whole move and then some. Click here.

5) Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All-Time High, up +9.48% in January alone and +11.63% year-to-date. Buying tech stocks at the bottom and selling short US Treasury bonds against them has worked like a charm. David Tepper eat your heart out! Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, APRIL 20 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TLT),

(PLEASE SIGN UP NOW FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE NOW),

(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!),

(MEET YOUR HOME OF THE FUTURE),
(KASITA),

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 11, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 11, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) What a Round Trip it has Been! Since the tax bill passed in December 2017, the return on the stock market has been ABSOLUTELY ZERO! What we gained in tax breaks we lost in trade wars. Except that now the bill is due with $1.8 trillion in new government borrowing this year. Oops! That is NOT what they promised.

2) NY Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Estimates, to below 2% with more cuts to come. Trade war uncertainty cited as the number one reason. Click here.

3) Remember Those Puerto Rican Bonds? A hedge fund, Tilden Park Capital Management LP, just made an $18 million killing off of the latest restructuring while another got tagged for $6 million. That’s what you get for playing in the deep end of the pool. Leave this high risk/high return game to the pros. Click here.

4) You Finally Got Your Tesla. Now, how do you get it fixed? Some 400,000 new cars this year will perilously overload the company’s infrastructure. Use every piece of bad news to buy more stock. The upside breakout is coming. Click here.

5) Put on Your Hard Hat, Consumer Spending is slowing. That means the recession is near. Fund managers are universally moving into defensive and value stocks. So should you. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or DON’T STAND NEXT TO THE DUMMY),

(AAPL), (MSFT), (TSLA), (VIX), (TLT), (TBT), (FXI)

(HOW FORTNITE IS TAKING OVER THE GAMING WORLD),

(TTWO), (EA), (ATVI), (NFLX), (FORTNITE)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 8, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) China Trade Talks Hit the Skids, taking stock market down with it as an administration official concedes they are “nowhere close to a deal” with the deadline 3 weeks off. Trump desperately needs a deal, while the Chinese don’t who think they can do better under the next president. If you disagree with this view in China, your organs get harvested and sold on the open market.

2) The European Economy is Also Going Down the Drain, with the EC’s forecast of economic growth cut from 1.9% to 1.3%. The US-China trade war is cited as a major factor. The global synchronizes slowdown accelerates. Looks like they’ll have more time to drink cheap wine and smoke Gauloises. Click here.

3) Barbie Rocks, boosting sales at Mattel (MAT) and delivering a 33% pop in the stock. Wouldn’t touch this sector on pain of death. Kids' tastes are wildly unpredictable. Just ask mine. Click here.

4) Apple is the World’s Largest Company Once Again, eclipsing Amazon (AMZN) with a market capitalization topping $810 billion. Expect these two and Microsoft (MSFT) to keep trading places in the coming year, but Amazon will eventually win out if Jeff can only put his personal life on hold. Click here.

5) Goodbye to the 747, as the once mainstay of international travel struggles to hang on as a cargo plane. When I saw the first test flight in Everette, WA in 1969, no one could believe it got off the ground. It turns out that two engines are much cheaper to run than four and there have been huge strides made in composite materials. I’ll miss the grand piano on the first class second floor. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(FEBRUARY 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(TLT), (FXA), (NVDA), (SPY), (IEUR),

(VIX), (UUP), (FXE), (AMD), (MU), (SOYB)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 7, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Biggest Bank Takeover in a Decade, hits the tape with BB&T (BBT) buying SunTrust (STI) for $28 billion, a 7% premium. This is another chip away at the massive overbanking of the US. The US still has 5,000 banks while Australia gets by with four. Click here.

2) Video Game Stocks Get Destroyed, as privately held Epic Games’ Fortnight sucks all the oxygen out of the room. Yes, $250 million a month in competing sales can wipe out your entire business. Electronic Arts (EA) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) are banging on the basement door. If you wonder where your kids have disappeared to, they’re all playing Fortnight online. Click here.

3) Another Nail in the Bitcoin Coffin. A major crypto exchange files for bankruptcy protection when the founder died and took all the passwords with him. Quadriga CX is now in liquidation in Canada and investors are likely to get stiffed for $140 million. I know it’s not Bitcoin, but it’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the sector. Click here.

4) Farm Sector Bankruptcies are Soaring, hitting a decade high. Apparently, the trade wars and global warming aren’t working for them. Ironically, ag prices are about to take off to the upside when a Chinese trade deal gets done. Buy the ags for a trade. Click here.

5) Tesla Cuts Prices Again, in a blatant bid for market share and global domination. The low-end Tesla 3 price drops to $42,900. Next stop $35,000. Too bad they laid off my customer support personel to cut costs. I can’t find my AM radio. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHAT TO BUY AT MARKET TOPS?),

(CAT), ($COPPER), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO),

(EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(THE DEATH OF THE COLLEGE DEGREE),

(GOOGL), (IBM), (AAPL), (BABA), (BIDU)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 6, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Volatility Index (VIX) Hits $15. The market is more overbought than any time since July. Is the “fear gauge” signaling that happy days are here again? I doubt it. Don’t whistle past the graveyard. Click here.

2) The Mad Hedge Market Timing Index is Entering Danger Territory, with a reading of 67 for the first time in five months. Better start taking profits on those aggressive leveraged longs you bought in early January. Your best performers are about to take a big hit. Click here.

3) Australian Dollar Crashes on Rate Fears. You mean the Reserve Bank of Australia might actually raise rates? Better pay for that American vacation now! This should prick the property bubble big time. Click here.

4) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Craters, to 56.7. Should we be worried? Hell, yes! Why are we getting so many negative data points and stocks keep rising? Click here.

5) Snow Hits San Francisco for the First Time in Two Decades, with temperatures plunging into the mid-twenties. Is Global warming really global weirding? It is 120 degrees in Australia today.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING IN 2019)

(ALPHABET WOWS THEM AGAIN),

(GOOGL), (AMZN), (AAPL), (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 5, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 5, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Last FANG Reports, with Alphabet (GOOGL) surprising to the upside. Ad sales and earnings beat, but the stock sells off anyway. Will this be that last earnings surprise to drive the market? Click here.

2) Talking of Banning Share Buybacks is Rising. Blamed as a major cause of income inequality, far left Dems want to ban this highly lucrative practice. The stock market and the stock-owning half of the country hate the prospect, so it will never happen. Click here.

3) The Bond King Retires, with Bill Gross leaving Janus Henderson at the age of 75. Bill and I both worked our way through college card counting at blackjack in Las Vegas before the casinos knew what it was. Bill was never able to match his legendary PIMCO performance at Janus citing difficulties in the bond market. As a fellow bond trader, I totally sympathize. Click here.

4) Tech Stocks May Be About to Fade, with grim guidance dominating earnings reports. Where will we fail at this run at the old highs? Click here.

5) Robots are Taking Over the Super Bowl, without mechanical friends dominating the ad space. I particularly liked the Budweiser ad with the Game of Thrones play. Next to come are the players who delivered the most boring game in history with a 13-3 score. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)

(TLT), (AAPL),

(THE GOVERNMENT’S COMING WAR ON MONEY)

(THE FINTECH COMPANY YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF),

(FISV), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (FDC), (PYPL), (SQ)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 4, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 4, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Is the Fed Pausing Because of Political Pressure or an Economy that is Falling Apart? Neither is a good answer for equity holders. Start cutting back risk while you can. There are lots of bids on the way up but none on the way down as December showed. Click here.

2) Factory Orders Nosedive 0.6% in November, the worst in a year. Funny how nobody wants to make stuff ahead of a recession.

3) Oil Prices Love the Venezuela Meltdown. But how high can prices go in the face of a fading economy? Watch out for the coming coup d’ etat. Click here.

4) New Junk Debt Issuance is Soaring. Do you think they’re trying to grab a seat before the music stops playing? Click here.

5) Exxon Pops on Earnings Beat. The rising price of Texas Tea is everything even though it is all hedged on (XOM)’s books. Gotta love that Venezuela crisis. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or FROM PANIC TO EUPHORIA),

(SPY), (TLT), (AAPL), (GLD),

(WHY AMAZON IS TAKING OVER THE WORLD),

(AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 1, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) January Nonfarm Payroll Surprises at 304,000. However, December was revised down by 90,000, so the market response was muted. The headline unemployment rate rises to 4.0%. Is the bottom in? Click here.

2) Weekly Jobless Claims Up a Stunning 53,000 to 253,000, an 18-month high. While government workers can’t claim, their private subcontractors can, hence the massive shutdown-driven jump. Click here.

3) US Coal Production Hits a 39-Year Low, as it is steadily replaced by natural gas and solar. A 19th-century energy source meets a 19th-century fate. Avoid (KOL) like the plague, buy Tesla (TSLA). Click here.

4) Amazon Appalls, with record earnings but surprisingly weak guidance. Stock dives $90. Buy the dip. This is only a short-term hickey. There is a double in Amazon from here, despite the divorce. Click here.

5) Why are all Major Companies Reporting Good Earnings but Cautious Guidance? Are they reading the newspapers, or do they know something we don’t? Not a great sign of a continuing bull market. Sell the next capitulation top.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE DEATH OF KING KOL),

(KOL), (PEA),

(THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF ONLINE RETAILING),

(SNAP), (GPRO), (APRN), (SFIX)