It is often said that the stock market has discounted 18 out of the last six recessions. It has just discounted one of those non-recessions. The furious, violent, gut-wrenching 3,000-point nosedive we suffered in the Dow Average during August 19-24 essentially amounted to an entire bear market on its own. Could the market be discounting
There is enormous excitement among climate scientists these days, and it has nothing to do with global warming. Sophisticated computer models say there is a 50/50 chance that the coming winter will be driven by the El Ni?o effect. It could hit as early as September. The potential consequences for your trading and investment portfolio
Global Market CommentsAugust 31, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(OCTOBER 12 PORTLAND, OREGON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED),($TNX), (TLT), (TBT) 10 Year Tresury Note Yield INDX ($TNX)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Global Market CommentsAugust 28, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(STRESS TESTING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER STRATEGY),(SPY), (VIX), (FXY), (TLT), (LEN)(IS THE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES?) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)Lennar Corporation (LEN)
It is always a great idea to know how bomb proof your portfolio is. Big hedge funds have teams of MIT educated mathematicians that constantly build models that stress test their holdings for every conceivable outcome. WWIII? A Global pandemic? A 1,000 point flash crash? No problem. Analysts will tell you to the decimal point
Global Market CommentsAugust 27, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(HOW TO TRADE A CRASH),(WHY SHAREHOLDER ACTIVISTS HAVE THE UPPER HAND),(JCP), (NFLX), (HLF), (AAPL),(TESTIMONIAL) J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)Herbalife Ltd. (HLF)Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Global Market Comments August 25, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT?S REALLY HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST), (USO), (TLT), (SPY), (GLD), (UUP), (XLK), (XLI), (XLF) United States Oil (USO) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Long-term observers of financial markets are befuddled, confused, and amazed at their complete lack of interest in the rapidly unfolding events in the Middle East. It seems that the more horrific the atrocities, the higher stock prices want to climb. Go figure. ISIS is in fact accelerating the most important geopolitical event so far in
Global Market CommentsAugust 25, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 26 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE VOLATILITY PEAK IS IN),(VIX), (VXX), (XIV), (SVXY),(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR) VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY)Guggenheim S&P
Well, I certainly earned my crust of bread today. This was truly one of those mornings when you couldn?t believe your screens. When I went to sell short the Volatility Index (VIX), I discovered that it wasn?t trading. Volatility in fact didn?t trade at all for the first 15 minutes of Monday. Unbelievable! So I
Global Market CommentsAugust 24, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (TLT)(THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
It would be remiss of me not to give thanks to you during this Thanksgiving season for all of your wise and profitable trading advice and wonderfully captivating and intense diaries. You are indeed very generous to your subscribers. Based on what I have received so far it could not have been more fortuitous for
Global Market CommentsAugust 21, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 26 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WHAT DID THE FED REALLY SAY?)(SPY), (EM), (FXE), (EUO),?(TLT), (TBT), (USO), (GLD), (FCX) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)United States Oil (USO)SPDR
What the Federal Reserve gave us on Wednesday with the release of their July minutes was decisive waffle. On the one hand, steadily rising employment means an interest rate rise is close. On the other, the strong dollar, China, emerging markets, and the oil and commodity collapse is scaring the daylights out of them. You
?It?s not overly frightening to have the Fed move away from massive accommodation. I think the market may struggle, but it is not a death blow,? said James Paulson, chief investment strategist at Wells Fargo Asset Management.
Global Market CommentsAugust 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHY I HAVE BECOME SO BORING),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (AAPL), (TSLA), (BIDU), (LNG),(TACKLING THE INFLATION MYTH),(AAPL), (GOOG), (TWTR), (FB) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)Google Inc.
Global Market CommentsAugust 19, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 38.37% GAIN IN 2015),(AAPL), (GS), (UVXY), (FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (TBT), (TLT).(THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES),(TESTIMONIAL) Apple Inc. (AAPL)The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro
I am back at my mountain top aerie near the city of San Francisco. Drifting smoke from the enormous forest fires up north have turned the skies a pale rust brown, taking visibility down to a few hundred yards. Some 100 square miles have burned up near here in the past month, the inevitable result
Global Market CommentsAugust 18, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY THE CHINESE YUAN IS DONE FALLING),(CYB), (FXI), (EWH), (FXE), (EUO),(PLEASE CHOOSE THE OCTOBER INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA? STRATEGY LUNCHEON DATE),(THE PASSING OF A GREAT MAN) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the surprise five point spike up in the bond market last week is entirely due to the shocking devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. Prior to that, fixed income markets were discounting the inevitable rise in US interest rates and fall in the bond market. It is
