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MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Is the Trade War on or Off?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Is the trade war on or off? Trillions of dollars in cash flow and investment depend on the answer to the question.

Traders and investors can be forgiven for being confused. It was only a week ago that a doubling of duties on Turkish imports were threatened because of an American pastor locked up there two years ago, triggering a stock meltdown.

Then, on Wednesday night presidential economic advisor Larry Kudlow hinted that he would meet with a Chinese trade delegation, prompting a 400-point Dow melt-up. Please note that except for Apple (AAPL), technology stocks did not participate in the rally one iota.

In the meantime, Apple continued its relentless march to my $220 target for $2018, so you might think about taking some money off the table. The market capitalization now stands at a staggering $1.05 trillion, the largest in the world.

It vindicates my call that at any time the administration could suddenly declare victory in the trade war, prompting a major stock market rally, regardless of the outcome.

So what happens next. Expect the trade talks to fail, or not happen at all. Market meltdowns will be followed by melt-up, then meltdowns again. Certainly, that's what the soybean (SOYB) market believes, that new canary in the coal mine for our global trade wars. It barely moved this week.

Hey, if trading were easy it would pay the federal minimum wage rate of $7.25 an hour, so quit your complaining!

As if trade wars were the only thing to worry about these days.

There is a mass protest underway at Alphabet (GOOGL) over the company's proposal to re-enter the China market. No one wants to assist the Middle Kingdom's harsh censorship regime, and some 1,000 employees have already signed a petition to this effect.

Emerging markets (EEM) continue to get pounded by trade wars and a strong U.S. dollar (UUP), which has the effect of increasing their companies' local currency debt.

Elon Musk continues his slow motion public nervous breakdown, cutting Tesla's stock at the knees down to $305. I hope you all took my advice last week to unload the stock at $380.

Netflix (NFLX) shares are undergoing a serious pullback now that it is in between upgrade launches, and the trade wars and strong dollar eat into international subscriber growth, about 80% of the total. Don't forget to buy this dip.

With the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index stuck dead on 50, I am not inclined to reach for trades here. A reading of 50 gives you the perfect "do nothing" indicator.

As is always the case when I return from vacation my first few trades are a rude awakening. August is now showing a modest return of 0.23%. My 2018 year-to-date performance has clawed its way up to 25.03% and my nine-year return appreciated to 302.61%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 34.91%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 32.24%.

This coming week housing statistics will give the most important insights on the state of the economy.

On Monday, August 20, there will be nothing of note to report. It will just be another boring summer day.

On Tuesday, August 21, same thing.

On Wednesday, August 22 at 9:15 AM, we learn July Existing Home Sales. Will the rot continue? Weekly EIA Petroleum Inventory Statistics are out at 10:30 AM. The Fed Minutes from the meeting six weeks ago are out at 2:00 PM EST.

Thursday, August 23 leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 12,000 last week to 212,000. Also announced are July New Home Sales. The two-day Jackson Hole Symposium of central bankers starts in the morning.

On Friday, August 24 at 8:30 AM EST, we get July Durable Goods. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me, it is back to school week for me, so I will be making the rounds with the new teachers at two schools. I have to confess that at my age I have trouble distinguishing between the students and the teachers.

Finally, a sad farewell to Aretha Franklin, the Queen of soul, who provided me with a half century of listening pleasure. When I was young, I couldn't afford to go see her, and when I got old I didn't have the time. Isn't life lived backward?

Good luck and good trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN!

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MHFTR

Some Sage Advice About Asset Allocation

Diary, Newsletter

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer.

The reason is simple: No two investors are alike.

The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on.

This is something you should ask your financial advisor, if you haven't fired him already, which you probably should.

Having said all that, there is one old hard and fast rule, which you should probably dump.

It used to be prudent to own your age in bonds. So, if you were 70, you should have had 70% of your assets in fixed income instruments and 30% in equities.

Given the extreme over-valuation of all bonds today, and that we are probably already in a 30-year bear market, I would completely ignore this rule and own no bonds whatsoever.

This is especially true of government bonds, which are yielding near zero interest rates in Europe and Japan, and only 2.23% in the U.S.

Instead you should substitute high dividend paying stocks for bonds. You can get 4% a year or more in yields these days, and get a great inflation hedge, to boot.

You will also own what everyone else in the world is trying to buy right now, high-yield U.S. stocks.

You will get this higher return at the expense of higher volatility. So just turn the TV off on the down days so you won't get panicked out at the bottom.

That is, until we hit the next recession. Then all bets are off. That may be three years off, or more.

I hope this helps.

John Thomas
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

Under or Over 70?

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MHFTR

August 20, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"Getting information off the Internet is akin to trying to sweep back the ocean with a broom," said Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google.

 

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MHFTR

August 17, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 17, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE AUGUST 22 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(HAS THE VALUE OF YOUR HOME JUST PEAKED?),
(ITB), (PHM), (KBH), (LEN), (DHI), (NVR), (TOL),
(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 26-27, 2018)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-17 01:09:282018-08-17 01:09:28August 17, 2018
MHFTR

August 17, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"It's not always the troops that storm the beaches who are the right ones to set up the government," said Steve Vassallo from Foundation Capital about the resignation of founder Travis Kalanick from Uber.

 

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MHFTR

August 16, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(NEW PLAYS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE),
(NVDA), (AMD), (ADI), (AMAT), (AVGO), (CRUS),
(CY), (INTC), (LRCX), (MU), (TSM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-16 01:07:332018-08-16 01:07:33August 16, 2018
MHFTR

August 15, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BONDS CAN'T GO DOWN),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX), (TUR), (TSLA),
(HOW TO MAKE MORE MONEY THAN I DO),
(AMZN), (LRCX), (ABX), (AAPL), (TSLA), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-15 01:08:592018-08-15 01:08:59August 15, 2018
MHFTR

How to Make More Money Than I Do

Diary, Newsletter

By now, most of you have figured out that I love calling readers every day and milking them for ideas on how to improve my service.

Often, they think I am an imposter, a telephone salesman, a machine, or an algorithm. It's only after listening for a few seconds that they recognize my voice from the biweekly strategy webinars and realize that it's the real me.

I don't do this to get renewals, because everyone renews anyway. Where else do you get a 62% annual return with no serious drawdowns?

No, I do it because the information I pick up from subscribers is golden. Some of my best Trade Alerts are inspired by reader questions.

One of my favorite Einstein quotes is that "There are no stupid questions, only stupid answers."

In fact, I have discovered that a lot of subscribers are making much more money from my service than I do.

I'll tell you how they do it.

First, let me remind readers that every Trade Alert I send out includes recommendation for a call or put option spread, a single stock, or an ETF.

The trading performance charts that we published are based on the options spread positions only.

WARNING: What worked swimmingly over the past 10 years is no guarantee that it will work next year, but I thought you'd like to know anyway.

1) Raise the Strike Prices

Move the strike prices up by a dollar. So instead of buying the Barrick Gold (ABX) September $15-$16 deep in-the-money vertical bull call spread, you pick up the $16-$17 call spread instead.

Generally, you make a profit that is 50% greater on this higher spread than with the original recommendation. But you are also taking on higher risk.

When 90% or more of our Trade Alerts are successful this has been a pretty good bet to make.

2) Buy the Call Options Only

Instead of buying the call spread, you buy the call option only in half the size.

When it works, your upside is unlimited. When it doesn't, you just write off the total value of your investment.

This is a great approach when the stocks I recommend take off like a rocket and double or more, as have Apple (AAPL), Amazon, (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), and NVIDIA (NVDA).

Option spread buyers leave a lot of money on the table with this scenario, but get lower performance volatility.

I have observed that many of my Australia readers pursue this approach, as they are fighting a 14-hour time zone disadvantage with the New York Stock Exchange. Not many civilians want to trade at 4:00 AM no matter how much it pays.

The payoff is that they earn about double what I do trading the same stocks.

3) Buy a 2X or 3X Leveraged ETF

This is moving out even further off the risk curve.

Almost every one of the 101 S&P 500 sectors have listed for them 2X and 3X bull and bear ETF's. In theory, the best-case scenario for one of these funds is that they will rise three times as fast as the underlying basket.

In theory, I said.

By the time you take out management fees, tracking error, and execution costs, and wide spreads, you are more likely to get 2.5 times the basket appreciation, if not 2X.

I normally steer investors away from 3X funds. But 401k traders, who are not allowed to deal in stock options, swear by them.

4) Trade Futures

This is a favorite of foreign exchange, precious metals, and bond traders. A futures contract can deliver up to 100 times the performance of the underlying currency, metal, or Treasury bond.

Get a good entry point, run a tight stop loss, and the potential gains can be astronomical.

Every year we get a couple of followers who earn 1,000% profits using our market timing for entry and exit point, and they always do it through the futures markets. Yes, that is a 10X return.

This is also a much higher risk, but higher return strategy. Your broker will present greater disclosure requirements and need a higher clearance level.

But potentially retiring in a year is ample bait for many professionals to go through with this.

5) Read the Research

I know a lot of you only buy this service only for our industry beating Trade Alert service.

But my decade-long experience in watching readers succeed, or fail, in their executions is that the more research they read, the more money they make.

Don't try to skim though with a minimal effort.

It's really very simple. The more work you put into this, the more profit you take out.

Understanding fully what is happening in the markets, indeed the entire global economy, will give you the confidence you need to take on bigger positions and make A LOT more money.

There is no free lunch. There is no Holy Grail.

Having said all that, good luck and good trading.

 

 

Looks Like I Got Another One

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MHFTR

August 14, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BANKS HAVE PERFORMED SO BADLY THIS YEAR),
(JPM), (C), (GS), (SCHW), (WFC),
(HOW FREE ENERGY WILL POWER THE COMING ROARING TWENTIES),
(SPWR), (TSLA)

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MHFTR

Why Banks Have Performed So Badly This Year

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I went to the local branch of Wells Fargo Bank (WFC) yesterday, and I was appalled. The bank occupied the most expensive corner in town. It was staffed by a dozen people, all of whom spoke English as a second language.

Ask even the simplest question and they had to call a support center and wait 10 minutes on hold for the answer. It took an hour for me to open a checking account for one of my kids. The branch was in effect a glorified call center.

I thought, "This can't last." And it won't.

Banks were supposed to be the sector to own this year. They had everything going for them. The economy was booming, interest rates were rising, and regulations were falling like leaves in the fall.

Despite all these gale force fundamental tailwinds the banks have utterly failed to deliver. The gold standard J.P. Morgan is up only 8.46% on the year, while bad boy Citibank (C) is down 5.47%, and the vampire squid Goldman Sachs (GS) is off a gut-punching 10.27%. Where did the bull market go? Why have bank shares performed so miserably?

The obvious reason could be that the improved 2018 business environment was entirely discounted by the big moves we saw in 2017. Last year, banks were the shares to own with (JPM) shares up a robust 24.5%, while (C) catapulted by 29.3%.

It is possible that bank shares are acting like a very early canary in the coal mine, tweeting about an approaching recession. Loan growth has been near zero this year. That is not typical for a booming economy. It IS typical going into a recession.

When the fundamentals arrive as predicted but the stock fails to perform it can only mean one thing. The industry is undergoing a long-term structural change from which it may not recover. Yes, the bank industry may be the modern-day equivalent of the proverbial buggy whip maker just before Detroit took over the transportation business.

Managing a research service such as the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, it is easy to see how this is happening. Financial services are being disrupted on a hundred fronts, and the cumulative effect may be that it will no long exist.

This explains why this is the first bull market in history where there has been no new hiring by Wall Street. What happens when we go into a bear market? Employment will drop by half and those expensive national branch networks will disappear.

Financial services are still rife with endless fees, poor service, and uncompetitive returns. Online brokers such as Robin Hood (click here) will execute stock and option transactions for free. Now that overnight deposits actually pay a return they make their money on margin loans. They have no branch network but are still SIPC insured.

Legacy brokers such as Fidelity and Charles Schwab (SCHW) used to charge $25 a share to execute and are still charging $7.00 for full-service clients. And it's not as if their research has been so great to justify these high prices either. In a world that is getting Amazoned by the day, these high prices can't stand.

Regular online banking service also pay interest and are about to eat the big banks' lunch. Many now pay 1.75% overnight interest rates and offer free debit and credit cards, and checking accounts. Of course, none of these are household names yet, but they will be.

To win the long-term investment game you have to identify the industries of the future and run from the industries of the past. The legacy financial industry is increasingly looking like a story from the past.

 

 

 

 

 

Are Big Banks Ready for the Future?

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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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