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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Please Search My Free Data Base

Diary, Newsletter

The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund.

When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up.

You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box found on the Home Page in the upper right hand side, and a cornucopia of data, charts, and opinions will appear.

The data base goes back to February, 2008, totaling 3 million words, or five times the length of Tolstoy?s?War and Peace. Watching the traffic over time, I can tell you how the database is being used:

1) Small hedge funds want to see what the large hedge funds are doing.

2) Large hedge funds look to see what they have missed which is usually nothing.

3) Midwestern advisors to find out what is happening in New York and Chicago.

4) American investors to find out if there are any opportunities overseas (there always are).

5) Foreign investors to find out what?the hell?is happening in the US (about 1,000 inquiries a day come in through Google?s translation software).

6) Specialist traders in stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals looking for cross market insights which will give them a trading advantage with their own book.

7) High net worth individuals managing their own portfolios so they don?t get screwed on management fees.

8) Low net worth individuals, students, and the military looking to expand their knowledge of financial markets (lots of free online time in the Navy).

9) People at the Treasury and the Fed trying to find out what the private sector is doing.

10) Staff at the SEC and the CFTC to see if there is anything new they should be regulating.

11) More staff at the Congress and the Senate looking for new hot button issues to distort and obfuscate.

12) Yet, even more staff in Obama?s office gauging his popularity and the reception of his policies.

13) As far as I know, no justices at the Supreme Court read my letter. They?re all closet indexers.

14) Potential investors/subscribers attempting to ascertain if I have the slightest idea what I am talking about.

15) Me trying to remember trades which I recommended long ago, but have forgotten.

16) Me looking for trades that worked so I can say ?I told you so.?

It?s there, it?s free, so please use it.

John at Kentucky Derby

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-at-Kentucky-Derby.jpg 400 367 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-31 01:06:072016-10-31 01:06:07Please Search My Free Data Base
DougD

October 31, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and open mindedness.? said the 19th century American humorist, Mark Twain.

john-in-hovel

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-in-Hovel-e1477796394788.jpg 213 300 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-31 01:05:322016-10-31 01:05:32October 31, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

October 28, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Market Comments
October 28, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HERE COMES THE NEXT BIG SHORT),
(USO), (TSLA), (TM), (GM), (NSANY),
(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON),
(YOU ARE INVITED TO JOIN THE GREAT JOHN THOMAS-HARRY DENT DEBATE)

United States Oil (USO)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
General Motors Company (GM)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-28 01:09:032016-10-28 01:09:03October 28, 2016
DougD

Here Comes The Next ?Big Short?

Diary, Newsletter

Remembers the billions of dollars that were made by clever hedge funds selling short bond derivatives at the peak of the housing market?

A similar opportunity may be presenting itself.

As electric cars go mainstream, a number of unintended consequences may be triggered.

One big one that no one is thinking about is that a good portion of the global corporate bond market may be demolished.

Some one-quarter of the $14.7 trillion in issues outstanding have been issued by the energy industry.

Fitch, the ratings agency, has just downgraded many of these bonds.

They cite the threat posed by electric cars, which could lead to ?an investor death spiral? in the energy industry.

Let me give you a few simple numbers.

When I bought my first Nissan (NSANY) Leaf 6 ? years ago, the battery cost $1,000 per kWh.

Two years later, Tesla (TSLA) dropped the price to $300/kWh with their sleek Model S.

This year, General Motors (GM) shaved that figure to $125/kWh with their all electric Bolt.

That is an 87.5% cost reduction in only 6 ? years.

The non-subsidized breakeven point for car batteries is widely considered to be around $100/kWh, a mere 20% lower. At that point, electric cars take over the world.

There are only about 1.2 million electric cars on the road today out of a global fleet of 1 billion.

However, worldwide production this year is expected to exceed 500,000 which is equivalent to 2.85% of the total US car market.

Tesla alone is planning to ramp production up from 80,000 vehicles in 2016 to 500,000 by 2020. They are now running at a 100,000-unit per year annual rate.

These are still small numbers. But here is the scary thing about the energy market.

Sometimes it takes only a 1% change in the supply/demand picture to trigger a 50% collapse in prices.

Energy pays no interest or dividend, and is expensive, dangerous, and toxic to store. No one wants to get stuck with excess supply.

Look no further than the contango in the oil futures market, where prices for one-year delivery are 10% more expensive than the front-month futures contract. Oil for immediate delivery is trading at an enormous discount.

Another problem is that all of the world?s strategic petroleum reserves are full, with the US and China holding the largest reserves. Over 200 tankers worldwide are storing crude, awaiting an improvement in prices that may never come.

And then we have the lesson of the past five years, when oil prices crashed by 83.3% from a 2008 peak of $149.50. Bondholders shuddered.

A sudden surge in electric car production could produce a tipping point that brings a cataclysmic decline in oil prices. Automobiles currently account for 50% of US oil consumption.

And what if we then go into another recession? It could make this year?s $25.50 low in Texas tea look spectacularly expensive.

If you have any doubts about the disruptive possibilities of electric cars, go visit the Tesla factory in Fremont, California which I have been doing for five years.

When I first went there in 2011, the assembly line occupied just a small corner of the cavernous 500,000 square foot facility, the site of a former General Motors/Toyota (TM) joint venture. You could almost hear a pin drop.

I went there last week to check on my Model X order and the plant was a beehive of activity. There were multiple assembly lines. Shiny aluminum parts were stacked to the 30-foot ceiling.

Robots silently delivered parts from one side of the factory to the other. A couple of times I almost got run over by emergency repairmen on bicycles rushing to fix some vital part of the process.

You could spend the day listing other unintended consequences of electric cars.

They use 80% fewer parts than conventional cars, so you can kiss the auto parts industry goodbye.

They require no maintenance, so one million car repairmen across the country will lose their jobs.

Self-driving technology will wipe out the auto insurance business, since accidents will rarely happen. It will also cut hospital emergency room visits by half, chopping down health care costs.

The Tesla assembly line uses less than half the workers of equivalent Detroit lines, so the company is a net job destroyer.

Where will all the jobless go?

I could go on and on.

Bottom line: approximately half of the entire US economy will, in some way or another, be dramatically affected by electric cars.

On my way out of the Tesla factory, we passed by the Founders? Wall. This is where the buyers of the first 100 Model S-1?s signed their names with a magic marker, hoping for the best.

After all, we didn?t know if the $110,000 ultra modern vehicle would work.

There was ?JOHN THOMAS? in big bold letters.

I smiled, didn?t say a word, walked out, jumped in my Tesla S-1 and drove home.
wtictmgmtsla
John with Tesla2

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-with-Tesla2-e1463513139489.jpg 282 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-28 01:08:342016-10-28 01:08:34Here Comes The Next ?Big Short?
DougD

You Are Invited to Join the Great John Thomas-Harry Dent Debate

Diary, Newsletter

I have been debating, arguing, and kibitzing with Harry S. Dent for nearly a decade.

You may know Harry as the cutting edge economic and demographics guru who's written many books on topics I have reviewed in past years (read more here for ?When the Demographics Tailwind Becomes a Headwind? .

Sometimes I agree with Harry.

Other times, I think he is out of his mind.

But whenever we butt heads, the outcome is always informative and entertaining, if not outrageous.

On Sunday night at 8:00 PM EST, I will be debating Harry live in a global webinar that will be broadcast live in 135 countries.

The event will be moderated by my friend, Greg Owen, in Sydney, Australia. Harry will be opining from Florida, while I?ll be refuting his opinions from San Francisco, California.

Some of the topics covered will include:

1) The likely outcome of the November 8th election and the possible outliers

2) The election impact on your retirement portfolio

3) The true causes of the divide currently afflicting the US

4) How new media enabled Donald Trump to shatter election conventions, and how Hillary Clinton counterattacked

5) The long term outlook for all asset classes

You can attend this fascinating, ground breaking global event for only US $75/AU $97.

Attendance is limited to only the first 1,000. Please click here to purchase a ticket.

It should be a real barnburner of a webinar.
john-thomas-harry-dent

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-Thomas-Harry-Dent-e1477452680675.jpg 301 580 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-28 01:06:352016-10-28 01:06:35You Are Invited to Join the Great John Thomas-Harry Dent Debate
DougD

October 27, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 27, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 18TH LAS VEGAS,? NV GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(TRADING THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION),
(SPY), (TLT), (UUP), (USO), (AAPL), (GLD),
(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)
United States Oil (USO)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-27 01:09:092016-10-27 01:09:09October 27, 2016
DougD

Trading the Day After the Election

Diary, Newsletter

November 9th, the day after the presidential election, could prove the most challenging day to trade the markets in four years.

Stocks could explode higher, utterly collapse, do nothing, or do all three on the same day. This could be the preeminent whipsaw day of the decade, if not the century.

At the moment, the market has fully discounted a Clinton win, a Democratic capture of the Senate, and a marginal Republican win in the House of Representatives.

There are two possible scenarios here.

The ascendance of the pro globalization, pro infrastructure view could unleash tens of billions of dollars of new equity allocations that immediately take the major share indexes to new all time highs very quickly.

The major indexes could add 10% over the next six months.

The pro growth outcome would send the dollar (UUP), gold (GLD) and commodities (COPX) soaring, while bonds (TLT) may take a dump.

On the other hand, a Clinton win, the expected outcome, could also deliver a ?Buy the rumor, sell the news? type event.

That could trigger a quick 5% correction, and then a more prolonged grind up to new highs by yearend. We saw much the same in the wake of the Apple (AAPL) earnings release on Tuesday, October 25th.

So there you have it: up now, or up later.

That?s the easy part.

Let?s say Donald Trump wins, to which I assign a 1% probability. That would be an enormous surprise which markets hate.

Stocks markets (SPY) would focus on an immediate decline in international trade and a huge increase in budget deficits, and would probably open down 5%-10%.

Virtually all other asset classes will fall as well, thanks to an expected doubling of the national debt and slower global growth. Defense spending would also rise.

This is not expected, so Trump supporters should not hold their breath.

However, what if there is no definitive outcome on November 8th? What if the election is thrown into the courts as it was in 2000 regarding Bush vs. Gore.

Remember all that "hanging chad" counting in Florida? They didn?t get an election outcome until December.

Since the Senate blocked President Obama from appointing a Supreme Court justice, the august body is now split 4-4. So we won?t get any definitive rulings there.

A final decision may have to be rendered by the House of Representatives, in which the Republicans have a 30-seat majority. That would hand the election to Trump on a silver platter.

This is unprecedented in US history. Risk assets would take an extremely unfavorable view of such a development and most likely would send stocks into a bear market.

For this to happen the margin in a large state, like Florida, with 29 votes in the Electoral College, would be enough to swing the election outcome either way.

The margin would have to be only a few hundred votes, triggering multiple recounts and oceans of litigation.

Yes, it may all come down to Florida one more time.
?
If you are a long term investor or financial advisor, which is most of you, it would probably be better to just not trade at all on November 9th.

Given the vast expanse of time, the impact on your portfolio should be minimal. It?s tough to beat the earnings power of American corporations for the long haul.

If your candidate won, go out and have a glass of champagne. If he lost, buy a bottle of cheap gin and finish it.vote-for-me-button

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Vote-for-Me-Button-e1474334192792.jpg 400 388 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-27 01:07:312016-10-27 01:07:31Trading the Day After the Election
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City

Diary, Newsletter

I tell people at my strategy luncheons that living in the San Francisco Bay area is like living in the future.

There is an explosion of high tech innovation going on here, and we locals often find ourselves the guinea pigs for the latest hot products.

However, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be.

I learned this the other day when I received a parking ticket in the mail. I didn?t recall finding a notice of violation tucked under my windshield wiper in the recent past, so I looked into it.

To my chagrin, I learned that the city is now outfitting its buses with video cameras pointing forward and sideways.

The digital recordings are then transmitted to parking control officers sitting behind computer screens for review.? They issue tickets, which are mailed to the registered owner of the vehicles.

San Francisco suffers from one of the worst parking nightmares in the country. The streets were never planned, they just sort of happened on their own during the frenzy of the 1849 gold rush.

They were built to handle the traffic of horses and carriages, and later cable cars, not the crush of traffic we have today.

Sky-high real estate prices have driven millions into the suburbs across the bridges over which they must commute. So parking has always been in short supply and it is very expensive. When I drive into the city for a Saturday night dinner, sometimes the parking tab is more expensive than the meal.

Newly minted millionaires from tech IPO?s are now buying vintage Victorian homes, and then retrofitting garages underneath them. Every time this is done, it eliminates another parking spot on the street to make room for the driveway.

So while the traffic is increasing, the number of parking spots is actually declining.

The city originally installed the cameras to catch offenders driving in bus lanes during rush hour. When they discovered that the cameras also captured the license plates of illegally parked cars they expanded the program. Last year 3,000 such tickets were issued.

The program has been so successful that the cash-strapped city will greatly expand it this year. And with a great San Francisco track record to point to, the firm selling the system is planning on going nationwide. Soon it will come to a city near you.

Like I said, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be.

Cars-parkedParking in San Francisco Can be Tight

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Cars-parked.jpg 311 406 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-27 01:06:492016-10-27 01:06:49The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City
DougD

October 26, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 26, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(YOU ARE INVITED TO JOIN THE GREAT JOHN THOMAS-HARRY DENT DEBATE),
(IS RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TOPPING OUT?.OR NOT),
? (DHI), (LEN), (HD), (TPH),
(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)

DR Horton Inc. (DHI)
Lennar Corporation (LEN)
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
TRI Pointe Group, Inc. (TPH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-26 01:09:492016-10-26 01:09:49October 26, 2016
DougD

Is Residential Real Estate Topping Out . . . Or Not?

Diary, Newsletter

Location, location, location.

Those are the three most important elements of a successful real estate transaction.

A glut of $2 million plus mansions has suddenly hit the market in the posh Berkeley Hills, with dozens of signs for weekend open houses congesting every corner.

However, in nearby West Oakland a mere few miles away the market is on fire, a gritty, but rapidly gentrifying area near San Francisco Bay.

There you can pick up a fixer upper Victorian for as little as $400,000 walking distance from the BART station, and a mere five minute commute from pricey downtown San Francisco.

So is the residential real estate market going up, down or sideways? Which neighborhood has it right?

There is no doubt that this is not our father?s real estate market.

Nationwide, luxury homes are in recession. Some of this reflects profit taking by the smart money that got in at the 2011 bottom.

Prices in key markets like San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland have nearly doubled in five years.

New York penthouses listed for tens of millions of dollars, heavily dependent on the Russian and Chinese buyers, are going begging.

Multifamily dwellings, that have been on a tear, have also gone soft.

However, it is still early days for new entry-level homes.

While Millennials thought it was cool to live with significant others in postage-stamp-sized inner city apartments, throw a couple of kids into the mix, and the picture changes completely.

The US birthrate, falling for the past decade, has taken off like a rocket. The birthrate among woman over 25 is suddenly exploding, while for those over 35 it is rising at an even faster rate.

As with the original Great Depression, the 2008 Great Recession ended up pushing out the demographic curve by five years, delaying new family formation.

Yes, I know what you are going to call it. This is nothing less than the start of a millennial baby boom which will power our economy for the next 20 years.

The biggest demand is now in starter single-family homes with 3-4 bedrooms, modern kitchens, and generous backyards in leafy suburbs.

The math here is very simple.

Why face an onslaught of 4%-12% annual rent increases, when you can build equity, install your own solar panels, and harvest great tax breaks through home ownership?

A silent revolution in home finance is making all the difference.

You hear a lot about the difficulty in getting home loans from traditional brick and mortar banks these days.

Tales are legion of mountainous paperwork requirements, low loan to values, second signers, ridiculous appraisals, and stringent FICO standards.

Blame The Dodd-Frank financial regulation act. Some eight years after all the big banks required bailouts, the government still has them on a short leash.

But guess what? Banks aren?t the main players in the market anymore.

Non-bank lenders now account for 56% of the residential real estate market.

Firms like Quicken Loans, Stearns Mortgage, and Freedom Mortgage have moved aggressively to offer streamlined online applications and instant approvals.

Just for fun, I called Quicken Loans in Detroit, Michigan to get a refinancing offer on my San Francisco Bay Area home.

Within a minute, the agent was looking at my house from Google Earth, and had obtained an appraisal from Zillow.com.

I only needed a FICO score of 700. Within three minutes, he received approval to refinance 70% of the appraised value with a 5/1 ARM at a 2.87% interest rate. The closing would be in 30-40 days.

If you want to go through this exercise yourself, please visit
http://www.quickenloans.com.

Banks are now responding by attempting to claw back lost market share. Wells Fargo recently announced a first time buyers program with only 3% down. Other banks are rolling out similar programs.

?What about rising interest rates?? you may ask.

My bet is that interest rates will rise so slowly that the impact on monthly mortgage rates will be negligible.

The great thing for stock investors is that the demographics are ramping up just when housing inventories are at 30 year lows.

New home construction in recent years by risk averse builders is proceeding at less than half the frenetic rate we saw during the 2000s. And this is an industry where it takes two years or more to ramp up production.

This all shines a great spotlight on the home construction industry.

In the sweet spot are Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), Home Deport (HD), and Tripointe Group (TPH).

The performance of these shares has been lackluster for a couple of years. They have additionally been hammered by the recent selloff in interest-rate-sensitive asset classes and fixed income surrogates.

They are about to play catch up with a vengeance.
dhi len hd tph moving-out west-oakland-house

Real Estate is Hopping in West Oakland

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/West-Oakland-House-e1477451958111.jpg 302 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-26 01:07:422016-10-26 01:07:42Is Residential Real Estate Topping Out . . . Or Not?
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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