Global Market Comments
September 25, 2014
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL TESLA ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(PLUNGING BACK INTO TESLA),
(TSLA)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Global Market Comments
September 25, 2014
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL TESLA ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(PLUNGING BACK INTO TESLA),
(TSLA)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
During last month?s Concourse d? Elegance vintage car show at Pebble Beach, California, I managed to catch up with Tesla?s senior management. All lights were flashing green, and it was full speed ahead.
The new Gigafactory being built outside Reno, Nevada will pave the way for the firm?s entry into the mass market. The big issue in selecting a site was not cost or subsidies, but the permitting process. In Nevada, where almost everything is legal, you can get a building permit in 30 days, compared to months elsewhere and years in California.
Expect to see the Model Tesla 3 out in three years, which will cost $40,000 and get a 300-mile range. Ranges on Lithium Ion battery driven vehicles are doubling every four years. Buying a car at that price, with no maintenance and free fuel for life, is the same as paying $20,000 for a gasoline driven car.
That?s when Tesla ramps up production from this year?s 40,000 units to 500,000, turning the ?Big Three? auto makers into the ?Big Four.? This is why the big institutional investors are going gaga over the stock.
All that has been missing this year has been a decent entry point to buy the stock. It now appears we have one, the stock giving up 17% from its August $295 high.
All of which brings me to Tesla?s share price, which has just taken a swan dive from $265 to $184 as hot money fled the big momentum names. Let me tell you that the revolutionary vehicle is still wildly misunderstood, and the company has done a lousy job making its case. I guess you can afford that luxury when consumers line up for a year to buy your product.
The electric power source is, in fact, the least important aspect of the Tesla cars. Here are 15 reasons that are more important:
1) The vehicle has 75% fewer parts than any other, massively reducing production costs. The drive train has 11 parts, compared to over 1,500 for conventional gasoline powered transportation. Tour the factory and it is eerily silent. There are almost no people, just a handful who service the German robots that put these things together.
2) No maintenance is required, as any engineer will tell you about electric motors. You just rotate the tires every 6,000 miles.
3) This means that no dealer network is required. There is nothing to fix.
4) If you do need to repair something, usually it can be done over the phone. Rebooting the computer addresses most issues. If not, they will send a van to do a repair at your house for free.
5) The car runs at room temperature, not the 500 degrees in standard internal combustion cars. This means that the parts last forever.
6) The car is connected to the Internet 24/7. Once a month it upgrades its own software when you are sleeping. You jump in the car the next morning and a message appears on your screen saying, ?We just upgraded the following 20 Apps.? This is the first car I ever owned that improved itself with age, as I do myself.
7) This is how most of the recalls have been done as well, over the Internet while you are sleeping.
8) If you need to recharge at a public station, it is free. Tesla has its own national network of superchargers that will top you up in 45 minutes, and allow you to drive across the country (see map below). But hotels and businesses have figured out that electric car drivers are the kind of big spending customers they want to attract. So public stations have been multiplying like rabbits. When I first started driving my Nissan Leaf in 2010 there were only 25 charging stations in the Bay Area. There are now over 1,000. They even have them at Costco.
9) No engine means a lot more space for other things, like storage. You get two trunks in the Model-S, a generous one behind, and a ?frunk? in front.
10) Drive an electric car in California, and you are treated like visiting royalty. You can drive in the HOV commuter lanes as a single driver. This won?t last forever, but it?s a nice perk now.
11) There is a large and growing market for all American made products. Tesla has a far higher percentage of US parts (100%) than any of the big three.
12) Since almost every part is made on site at the Fremont factory, supply line disruptions are eliminated. Most American cars are over dependent on Asian supply lines for parts and frequently fall victim to disruptions, like floods and tidal waves.
13) There are almost no controls, providing for more cost savings. Except for the drive train, windows, and turn signals, all vehicle controls are on the touch screen, like a giant iPhone 6 plus.
14) A number of readers have argued that the Tesla really runs on coal, as this is still the source of 36% of the US power supply. However, if you program the car between midnight and 7:00 AM (one of my ideas that Tesla adopted in a recent upgrade), you are using electricity generated by the utilities to maintain grid integrity at night that otherwise goes unused and wasted. How much power is wasted like this in the US every night? Enough to recharge 150 million cars per night!
15) Oh yes, the car is good for the environment, a big political issue for at least half the country.
No machine made by humans is perfect. So in the interest of full disclosure, here are a few things Tesla did not tell you before you bought the car.
1) There is no spare tire or jack, just an instant repair kit in a can.
2) The car weighs a staggering 3 tons, so conventional jacks don?t work. Lithium is heavy stuff, and the electric rotors and stators on the wheels that generate power weigh 250 pounds each. This means you only get 12,000 miles per set of tires.
3) The car is only 8 inches off the ground, so only a scissor jack works.
4) The 21-inch tires on the high performance model are a special order. Get a blowout in the middle of nowhere and you could get stranded for days. So if you plan to drive to remote places, like Lake Tahoe, as I do, better carry a 19-inch spare in the ?frunk? to get you back home.
5) If you let some dummy out in the boonies jack the car up the wrong way, he might puncture the battery and set it on fire. It will be a decade before many mechanics learn how to work with this advanced technology. The solution here is to put a hockey puck between the car and the jack. And good luck explaining what this is to a Californian.
6) With my Leaf, I always carried a 100-foot extension cord in the trunk. If power got low, I just stopped for lunch at the nearest sushi shop and plugged in for a charge. Not so with Tesla. You are limited to using their 20-foot charging cable, or it won?t work. I haven?t found anyone from the company who can tell me why this is the case.
The investment play here is not with the current Model S1, which is really just a test bed for the company to learn how to execute real mass production. This is why the current price/earnings multiple is meaningless. Battery technologies are advancing so fast now, that range/weights are doubling every four years.
And guess what? Detroit is so far behind developing this technology that they will never catch up. My guess is that they eventually buy batteries and drive trains from Tesla on a licensed basis, as Toyota (for the RAV4) and Daimler Benz (for the A Class) already are. Detroit?s entire existing hybrid technologies are older versions similarly purchased from the Japanese (bet you didn?t know that).
That leaves the global car market to Tesla for the taking. Sales in China are taking place at a price 50% higher than here in the US, and the early indications are that they will be an absolute blowout. Government support there is no surprise, given that the air pollution in Beijing is so thick you can cut it with a knife.
All of this will boost the shares from the present $250 to over $500. I would say $1,000 a share, but I don?t want to give it the Apple (AAPL) curse. So if you can use the current weakness to buy it under $250, you will be well rewarded.
You might also go out and buy a Model S1 for yourself as well. It?s like driving a street legal Formula 1 racecar and is a total blast. Just watch out for soccer moms driving Silverado?s speaking on cell phones.
Global Market Comments
September 24, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TIME TO BAIL ON THE SMALL CAPS),
(IWM), (RWM), (TZA), (TSLA), (SPY),
(A VERY BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE),
(THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),
?(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (DE)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM)
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (TZA)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
Deere & Company (DE)
It now appears that the ?Alibaba? correction (BABA) is at hand.
I warned you, pleaded with you, and begged you about this yesterday, and on May 8 (click here for ?Will Alibaba Blow Up the Market?).
The longer the company postponed the mother of all IPO?s, the higher the prices flew, until we finally got a print at the absolute apex of the market. Now, it?s time to pay the piper.
The development is part of a broader move out of riskier, higher beta stocks into safe, large caps that has been underway for several weeks now. Those traders who are ahead want to protect their years. Those who aren?t are screwed anyway, so don?t bother returning their phone calls.
Look no further than my favorite, Tesla (TSLA), which topped out on September 3, along with the rest of the MoMo high technology, biotechnology and Internet names.
Still love the cars, though.
The (IWM) has really been sucking hind teat all year, falling by 3% year to date compared to an 8% gain in the S&P 500.
Yesterday, the sushi really hit the fan when the 50-day moving average pierced the 200-day moving average for the first time since August, 2011. Known as a much dreaded ?death cross,? this is the technical equivalent of slitting both wrists and thrashing about in shark-invested waters, heralding more declines to come.
Let me list the reasons why this is the sector traders love to hate when markets move from ?RISK ON? to ?RISK OFF?:
*Since small companies borrow more than large companies, they are far more sensitive to rising interest rates. Guess what? Rates have been rocketing this month.
*Since small companies are more leveraged (indebted) than big ones, they are more sensitive to a slowing economy.
*Small companies don?t have the international diversification of their bigger brethren, and therefore have less of a financial cushion to fall back on.
*The (IWM) has roughly 1.5 times the volatility of the S&P 500, making a short position here fantastic downside protection for a broader based portfolio of stocks. So you get a lot of selling here, as managers try to lock in performance for fiscal years that start ending as early as October 31.
*Did I mention that the stock market is at one of its most overbought levels in history, the worst since 1928? Bearish sentiment is at only 13%, the lowest since 1987. These are more reason to sell, as if you needed any.
My readers have made tons of money over the years playing the (IWM) on the short side. It?s time for another visit to the trough. I?m not finishing my year early.
Not yet, anyway.
If you can?t trade options, then buy the Short Russell 2000 Fund ETF (RWM) as a 1X play, or the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (TZA) for a 3X trade. However, 3X ETF?s of any kind are for intra day traders only.
Global Market Comments
September 23, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON?T BUY ALIBABA),
(BABA), (YHOO), (SFTBY), (AMZN), (EBAY)
(A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS),
(A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US)
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
eBay Inc. (EBAY)
Global Market Comments
September 22, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY OCTOBER 24 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WHY I?M CHASING THE EURO),
(FXE), (EUO),
(SEPTEMBER 24 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, October 24, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $188.
As a special bonus this year, anyone who buys a ticket can bring a guest for free, provided that they are a trader or investor who may benefit from the services of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Just email Nancy at support@madhedgefundtrader.com with your guest?s name and email address so we know who is coming.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square. Exact location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my?online store.
Global Market Comments
September 19, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DEATH OF GOLD),
(GLD), (ABX), (GDX),
(THE STRUCTURAL BEAR CASE FOR TREASURY BONDS),
(TLT), (TBT)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
If you want to delve into the case against the long-term future of US Treasury bonds in all their darkness, consider these arguments.
The US has not had a history of excessive debt since the Revolutionary War, except during WWII, when it briefly exceeded 100% of GDP.
That abruptly changed in 2001, when George W. Bush took office. In short order, the new president implemented massive tax cuts, provided expanded Medicare benefits for seniors, and launched two wars, causing budget deficits to explode at the fastest rate in history.
To accomplish this, strict ?pay as you go? rules enforced by the previous Clinton administration were scrapped. The net net was to double the national debt to $10.5 trillion in a mere eight years.
Another $6.5 trillion in Keynesian reflationary deficit spending by President Obama since then has taken matters from bad to worse. The Congressional Budget Office is now forecasting that, with the current spending trajectory and the 2010 tax compromise, total debt will reach $23 trillion by 2020, or some 130% of today?s GDP, 1.6 times the WWII peak.
By then, the Treasury will have to pay a staggering $5 trillion a year just to roll over maturing debt. What?s more, these figures greatly understate the severity of the problem.
They do not include another $9 trillion in debts guaranteed by the federal government, such as bonds issued by home mortgage providers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. State and local governments owe another $3 trillion. Double interest rates, a certainty if wages finally start to rise and our debt service burden doubles as well.
It is unlikely that the warring parties in Congress will kiss and make up anytime soon, especially if we continue with a gridlocked congress after the November midterm elections. It is therefore likely that the capital markets will emerge as the sole source of any fiscal discipline, with the return of the ?bond vigilantes? to US shores after their prolonged sojourn in Europe. If you don?t believe me, just look at how bond owners have fared this week. Ouch!
Since foreign investors hold 50% of our debt, policy responses will not be dictated by the US, but by the Mandarins in Beijing and Tokyo. They could enforce a cut back in defense spending from the current annual $700 billion by simply refusing to buy anymore of our bonds.
The outcome will permanently lower standards of living for middle class Americans and reduce our influence on the global stage.
But don?t get mad about our national debt debacle, get even. Make a killing profiting from the coming collapse of the US Treasury market through buying the leveraged short Treasury bond ETF, the (TBT). Just pick your entry point carefully so you don?t get shaken out in a correction.
Global Market Comments
September 18, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SHE SPEAKS!),
(SPY), (FXE), (EUO), (FXY), (YCS), (GLD), (SLV), (TLT), (TBT),
(THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
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