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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 26, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 26, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(RIDING WITH TREASURY SECRETARY JACK LEW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-26 08:45:052013-08-26 08:45:05August 26, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Riding With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew

Newsletter

I was perusing my morning email in Zermatt a few weeks ago, and spotted the familiar White House address with the .gov ending. Would I be interested in meeting with the new Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew? It was just what I needed to lure me out of my Alpine lair back to the USA. I responded ?yes,? and instructions followed to meet him at the private jet terminal at San Francisco on August 22.

Half a globe and nine time zones later found me shaking hands with the nation?s 76th Treasury Secretary. The man is maybe 5?8? and squinted at me through wire frame glasses as he gave me a firm handshake. He wore the standard DC uniform, a dark solid suit with a white shirt, which I always thought made everyone look like undertakers.

?You can ride with me to my next event,? he said, inviting me into a spanking new tan GM Suburban with tinted windows. I thought ?Why not GM?? After all, until very recently the government owned a third of the troubled company. After the 1980 Chrysler bailout, that firm provided government rides for decades.

We then took off, escorted by a second Suburban packed with Secret Service agents and bracketed by two California Highway Patrol cars with red lights flashing, racing down Highway 101 at 80 miles an hour. ?Where are we going,? I wondered. ?Google, Apple, or Facebook??

Lew is the first Treasury Secretary appointed in many years who I did not already know. I dated back to the eighties with Tim Geithner in my Tokyo days after he read my books on Japan. Of course, I was long familiar with Hank Paulson from his time with Goldman Sachs, when I was first a competitor, and later a hedge fund client. So my goal today was to try to get the measure of Lew and figure out who he really was.

Lew told me that he was taking over a ship far more seaworthy than the one Geithner inherited four years ago. GDP has bounced back from a negative 5% to a 2% annual rate. Job growth rebounded from 700,000 losses to 200,000 gains a month. Automobile production returned from the grave, soaring from 9 million to 16 million annual units.

Taxes have been lowered for 98% of taxpayers, and major reform has been carried out in financial services, health care, and education. These gains have been made, despite a fiscal drag created by congress that is slowing the economy by 1% this year.

There was still plenty of work to do on jobs, a task made more difficult by the fact that the Republicans have opposed every jobs bill of the past four years. That is why boosting exports has been a top administration priority. The offshoring trend has slowed, and may even be reversing. Fixing our broken immigration system and getting college costs under control are also important.

Yes, it was all the standard Obama party line. But as this was our first meeting, I couldn?t expect a lot of confidences. Lew lacked the intellectual muscle of his predecessor, Geithner, who could discuss the most obscure parts of the financial history of the world with amazing depth. Lew struck as more of a technocrat with impressive experience in the day to day management of government institutions.

I asked Lew why he was known as the ?father of sequestration,? which has drained $85 billion out of the economy this year. He said the plan was a worst-case scenario that was never intended to be implemented. ?Who would have thought the Gang of Six wouldn?t get anywhere on this?? he asked.

Lew then went on to hint that an equally punitive Sequester II might be on the way in the wake of the next debt ceiling deadline in December. The Republicans are using the credit rating of the United States as a political lever, and the economy will suffer as a result.

Business and consumer confidence suffered a body blow during the last debt ceiling negotiations in 2011, and a jittery stock market plunged 25%. Lew confessed that he didn?t know how long cash on hand will last, and that social security checks, Medicare reimbursements, and payments to veterans may have to be halted.

I asked why the administration had declared war on the banking system.? He opined that 2008 was a failure of regulation and oversight. The financial system should be big and healthy enough to finance every good idea and provide loans to all credit worthy homebuyers. A strong and vibrant financial system was important for the US and the world.

But risks for taxpayers must be reduced, which is the goal of Dodd Frank.? Only 40% of the mandated rules have been drafted, and 60% of the deadlines have been missed, thanks to the overwhelming complexity of the task. International cooperation is needed to prevent business from flowing to the weakest regulator.

It was the day of the NASDAQ failure, and our conversation was interrupted by urgent calls from Washington several times. First there was SEC head, Mary Jo White, and then NASDAQ, Chief Robert Greifeld. When president Obama called for an update, the Treasury Secretary pulled out an armored and heavily encrypted cell phone and spoke in murmured tones. All I could make out during his calm and matter-of-fact explanation was ?server down? and ?no back up?.

The subject of China came up, and Lew confided that he had already met with president Xi Jinping several times. It was clear that the Middle Kingdom had over invested in manufacturing, creating a dangerous level of excess capacity. ?They agree with our recommendations,? he said with some surprise. I said I noticed that too. The real problem was in the execution, getting anything done in an emerging economy of 1.2 billion.

I cautioned the Treasury Secretary not to repeat the same mistake Geithner made in his early days and brand China a ?currency manipulator,? even if it was true. You don?t want to do that to someone who is holding $1 trillion of our debt, and until recently accounted for the purchase of half of all new Treasury issues.

We covered a broad range of other international financial issues, which I can?t discuss here for national security reasons. I hope I don?t read about them on Wikileaks someday.

A native of New York City, Lew did his undergrad at Harvard and his law degree at Georgetown. On graduation, he moved down the street and went straight into politics, where he worked for house majority leader, Tip O?Neill. He held several senior government posts during the Clinton administration. His wilderness years during the Bush administration were spent at New York University, and as the chief operating officer of Citicorp (C).

When president Obama took charge, Lew returned as an assistant Secretary of State, then Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and eventually to White House Chief of Staff. He is said to know more about the American budgeting process than any man alive, a talent that will prove useful in his current incarnation.

I couldn?t help but inquire about his pick for Ben Bernanke?s replacement, the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Somewhat irritated, he shot back, ?I will keep my advice in the Oval Office where it belongs.?

I finally pulled out what seasoned journalists call their ?throw away? question, the one, if asked, is so annoying that it gets you thrown out of the room, or in this case, left by the side of the freeway. ?Why a lawyer as Treasury Secretary? Wouldn?t someone with a more substantial economic background be better suited to the task??

He smiled when he answered that our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, was also a lawyer (click here for my in-depth piece on him in ?The Two Century Dollar Short?). Several men have recently held the post that came from industry or other professions.

In that case, I cautioned him not to befall the fate of Hamilton, who was shot in a duel by vice presidential candidate, Aaron Burr, on a New Jersey shore.

Just then, our procession pulled up to the Computer History Museum where Lew had to deliver a speech. I said he knew my email address and could call any time. We shook hands, and he breezed past an onslaught of TV cameras. I stopped to offer some comments.

?Is he smart? one reporter asked? I replied ?They?re all smart. The United States has an incredible breadth of smart people. That?s why we are the most dominant country in history.?

I called a taxi to retrieve my car back at the airport. In the meantime, I strolled around this really cool museum, far and away the best of its kind in the world. It displayed a Babbage calculating engine, a WWII German ?Ultra? decoding machine, and Steve Wozniak?s first Apple I, which was built in a wooden case. I even saw the wooden slide rule with which I worked my way through college. ?Yikes,? I thought, I?m becoming an antique myself.

That night, I went home, donned my orange hazmat suit, and caught up on the new season of ?Breaking Bad.?

Jack Lew

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Jack-Lew.jpg 466 324 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-26 08:44:242013-08-26 08:44:24Riding With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 23, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 23, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW US JOB LOSSES WILL END),
?(FXI), (PIN), (EWY), (VNM),
(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER)
(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY)
Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-23 01:06:142013-08-23 01:06:14August 23, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How US Job Losses Will End

Newsletter

I was researching comparative Asian wage data the other day and was astounded with what I found. Textile workers earn $2.99 an hour in India (PIN), $1.84 in China (FXI), and $0.49 in Vietnam (VNM). This is an 18 fold increase in labor costs from ten cents an hour since Chinese industrialization launched in 1978.

This compares to the $8 an hour our much abused illegals get at sweat shops in Los Angeles, and $10 in some of the nicer places. What?s more, the Indian wage is up 17% in a year, meaning that inflation is casting a lengthening shadow over the sub continent?s economic miracle. A series of strikes and a wave of suicides have brought wage settlements with increases as high as 20% in China.

This is how the employment drain in the US is going to end. When foreign labor costs reach half of those at home, manufacturers quit exporting jobs because the cost advantages gained are not worth the headaches and risk involved in managing a foreign language work force, the shipping expense, political risk, import duties, and supply disruptions, just to get lower quality goods. Chinese wage growth at this rate takes them up to half our minimum wage in only five years.

This has already happened in South Korea (EWY), where wage costs are 60% of American ones. As a result, Korea?s GDP growth is half that seen in China. These numbers are also a powerful argument for investing in Vietnam, where wages are only 27% of those found in the Middle Kingdom, and where Chinese companies are increasingly doing their own offshoring. This is why I have pushed the Vietnam ETF (VNM) on many occasions. I know every time I do this I get torrents of emails bitterly complaining how difficult it is to do business there, and how the hardwood trees are still full of shrapnel left over from the war, and why I shouldn?t buy a 50 acre industrial park there.? But, the numbers don?t lie.

FXI 8-22-13

EWY 8-22-13

PIN 8-22-13

VNM 8-22-13

Vietnam Flag

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Vietnam-Flag.jpg 287 446 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-23 01:05:552013-08-23 01:05:55How US Job Losses Will End
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Options for the Beginner

Diary, Newsletter

I strongly urge readers of this letter to log on to Amazon and by a copy of Options for the Beginner and Beyond by W. Edward Olmstead. Options contracts offer investors a wonderful instrument for minimizing risk, while maximizing the upside, and I am going to recommend many more such strategies in the future.

So, if you want to have the slightest idea of what I am talking about, get yourself some grounding in this important field by reading this book. You don?t have to be a math genius to figure this stuff out, and the risk reward benefits are great.

Olmstead, a math professor at Northwestern University, starts out with a basic Options 101 course, going into the merits of puts and calls. He catalogues the exchanges where they are listed, and the vast number of products that can be traded, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and precious metals.

He goes into the mundane, but important details on the administration side of things, such as settlements. For the more technically inclined, he launches into options theory pricing, and goes into the origins and utility of the Black-Scholes equation. We learn about the arcane world of what traders call ?the Greeks?, the deltas, thetas, and vegas of individual positions. He then launches into basic option strategies, like call and put spreads, ratios, straddles, strangles, collars, and condors.

Don?t let these terms scare you off. It is really much easier than it sounds. In fact, you will be kicking yourself once you find out how easy it is. In order to buy the book at a discounted price and give yourself a genuine trading edge, just click here.

Options for the Beginner and Beyond

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Options-for-the-Beginner-and-Beyond.jpg 401 289 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-23 01:04:522013-08-23 01:04:52Options for the Beginner
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 22, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 22, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY I SOLD OIL),
?(USO), (UNG), (UUP)
(SALUTING THE ?OLD BREED?)

United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-22 12:51:552013-08-22 12:51:55August 22, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why I Sold Oil

Newsletter

I think that oil peaked last week with the Egyptian Army?s ferocious and bloody attack on the Muslim Brotherhood. I hate to sound cynical here, but count the daily bodies in the street, which has been trending down sharply since Thursday?s, 1,000 plus tally. Fewer bodies mean lower oil prices.
This has most likely broken the back of the fundamentalist opposition movement for at least the time being, which has accounted for the $20 spike in oil prices over the last two months.

This returns us to the longer term fundamental trend for oil, which is sideways at best, and down at worst. The US is flooding the world?s oil markets with energy in all its many forms. The driver here is American fracking technology, which will continue to upend the traditional energy markets for decades to come. It?s just a matter of time before fracking goes mainstream in Europe, especially in the big coal countries of Germany, Poland, and England. Then they can thumb their noses at Russia, a major gas supplier over the last thirty years. China will follow.

In a crucial news item that wasn?t reported nationally, the California legislature voted down a measure to ban hydraulic fracturing in their state. It was defeated in a democratically controlled body. As the Golden State is the most anti energy state in the country, this gives the state a flashing green light to move forward against environmentalist opposition. There is a ton more of new supply coming. This is what the weakness in the price of natural gas is telling you (UNG).

We also received a new negative for oil this month, the collapse of the emerging market currencies, stock markets, and bonds, especially the Indian rupee. This reduces their international purchasing power in US dollar terms, thus raising the cost of oil in local currency terms. You see, oil is priced in dollars. As the emerging markets have seen the largest growth in demand for oil in recent years, this can only be bad for prices.

In terms of my own trading portfolio, I want to have a ?RISK OFF? position, like an oil short, to hedge my two existing ?RISK ON? positions in the Euro (FXE) and the yen (FXY) shorts. US stock markets could be weak into September, and they will take oil down with them.

The energy inventory figures released on Wednesday were another tell. Oil came in line with a 1.5 million barrel weekly draw down. But gasoline showed a precipitous 4 million barrel drop in supplies, meaning that more people are driving to their summer vacations than expected. Texas tea should have rallied at least $1 on the news. Instead it fell $1.50. It is an old trading nostrum that if a contract can?t rally on surprisingly positive developments, you sell the daylights out of it.

Below, you will find another chart that you should wake up and take notice of, the Powershares DB US Dollar Bullish Index Fund (UUP). Commodities traditionally are weak when the dollar is strong. Both the chart and the fundamentals suggest that we are close to a multiyear low for the greenback and are about to enter a prolonged period of dollar strength. This is also grim tidings for oil.

Finally, there is that last resort, the charts. Check out those for the (USO) and oil and it very much looks like we have a triple top in place. That is the straw that breaks the camel?s back. Time to sell.

The only way I am wrong on my oil call is if the Chinese economy is about to take off like a rocket. They are the marginal big swing player in this market. But there is absolutely no sign of that happening in the economic data. If anything, the collapse in emerging markets suggest that conditions in the Middle Kingdom are about to get worse before they get better.

USO 8-21-13

WTIC 8-21-13

NATGAS 8-21-13

UUP 8-22-13

Camel Ouch! That Hurt!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Camel.jpg 406 333 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-22 12:50:482013-08-22 12:50:48Why I Sold Oil
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 21, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 21, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THIS DIP),
?(SPX), (IWM), (INDU),
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

S&P 500 Index (SPX)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
DJ Industrial Average (INDU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-21 09:09:272013-08-21 09:09:27August 21, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why You should Buy This Dip

Newsletter

There?s nothing like coming home and getting slapped in the face with a fresh mackerel the second I step off the plane. That?s what happens when you travel from a continent that is universally positive about US stocks, to one that is largely negative.

Take a look at the chart below from my friends at Bespoke Research, showing that 66% of all investors are now bearish on stocks over the next 30 days, nearly a two year high. That takes us out to mid September, when Ben Bernanke gives us his decision on whether to start tapering and pare back quantitative easing, or not. I don?t think he will do it, but the majority of the market thinks he will.

The economic data do not justify it. Strip out the weekly noise and focus on the longer-term averages, and the picture becomes more clear. During the second half of 2012, monthly job gains averaged 180,000. In the first half of 2013 the number bumped up to 202,000. That is an improvement, but is far shy of the 400,000 in monthly gains seen at this point in past economic cycles.

You also have to consider Bernanke?s inordinate fear of doing a 1937 repeat, when the country fell into the second leg of the Great Depression due to premature easing. That means he will continue to err on the side of over stimulation. Add all this up, and you get no taper in September, December, or even in early 2014. When markets figure this out, they will rocket to new highs.

So why are stocks so weak now? Blame it on the summer doldrums, which is why I spent the last two months sunning my self in Europe. Watching the market action today, it is clear that the ?B? teams are still in charge on the trading desks. Write it off to the fact that the market has gone up for nine months straight and is begging for a rest. It is nothing more than that.

My bet is that we are in for another standard correction. So far, we have breached the 50-day moving average at 1,658, off 3.3% from the recent highs. The largest decline this year has been the 7.3% we saw in May. A 9.5% dump takes us down to 1,552, bang on the 200-day moving average. That?s where you load the boat on the long side for a yearend run to new highs.

Sorry for the delays in my recent posts. As soon as I got home, the hard drive on my iMac promptly blew up. This, no doubt, is thanks to the porters who dropped my luggage at the last 20 hotels I checked into. So I have been working from my six year old backup Windows PC, which I have largely forgotten to use.

What?s that delete button for? And where?s the damn finder?

Weekly Bespoke Mkt Poll

SPX 8-20-13

Fight-Fish Welcome Home!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Fight-Fish.jpg 257 530 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-21 09:08:412013-08-21 09:08:41Why You should Buy This Dip
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bipolar Economy

Diary, Newsletter

Corporate earnings are up big! Great! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. According to the Commerce Department?s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits account for only a small part of the economy. Using the income method of calculating GDP, corporate profits account for only 15% of the reported GDP figure. The remaining components are doing poorly, or are too small to have much of an impact. Wages and salaries are in a three decade long decline. Interest and investment income is falling, because of the low level of interest rates and the collapse of the housing market. Farm incomes are up, but are a small proportion of the total. Income from non-farm unincorporated business, mostly small business, is unimpressive. It gets more complicated than that. A disproportionate share of corporate profits are being earned overseas. So multinationals with a big foreign presence, like Intel, Oracle (ORCL), Caterpillar (CAT), and IBM (IBM), have the most rapidly growing profits and pay the least amount in taxes. They really get to have their cake, and eat it too. Many of their business activities are contributing to foreign GDP?s, like China?s, more than they are here. Those with large domestic businesses, like retailers, earn less, but pay more in tax, as they lack the offshore entities in which to park them. The message here is to not put all your faith in the headlines, but to look at the numbers behind the numbers. Those who bought in anticipation of good corporate profits last month, got those earnings, and then got slaughtered in the marketplace. Caveat emptor. Buyer beware.

What?s In the S&P 500?

Whats in the S&P Chart

Girl-Sad Has the Market Become Bipolar?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Girl-Sad.jpg 327 437 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-21 09:05:252013-08-21 09:05:25The Bipolar Economy
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