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MHFTR

April 26, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2018, PHILADELPHIA, PA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY CONSUMER STAPLES ARE DYING),
(XLP), (PG), (KO), (PEP), (PM), (WMT), (AMZN),
(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:09:172018-04-26 01:09:17April 26, 2018
MHFTR

Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Philadelphia, PA, on Wednesday, June 13, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $238.

I'll be arriving at 11:45 AM, and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase a ticket, please click here.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Liberty-Bell-e1522162854859.jpg 216 480 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:08:362018-04-26 01:08:36Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

April 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE SMALL AI PLAY YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF),
(BOX), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (IBM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:06:552018-04-26 01:06:55April 26, 2018
MHFTR

The Small AI Play You've Never Heard of

Tech Letter

The cloud segment of technology is hotter than hot, and as this sector starts to trade at a big premium, investors will have to look further down the chain of command to find a reasonable deal.

An up-and-coming cloud service Box (BOX) has gone undiscovered and is in position to seize a larger share of the cloud market moving forward.

The firm is led by CEO Aaron Levie who dropped out of my old alma mater USC in 2005 to start a cloud company with acting CFO and childhood friend Dylan Smith.

Last quarter was record-setting for Box, and it had a number of significant six- and seven-digit deals. Keep in mind Box's revenues are paltry compared to the behemoths that run this industry.

The platform has seen gradual success from all corners of the business world with various businesses from insurance claims processors to wealth advisors who use Box as a back-end platform.

Health care is another industry deploying the Box platform to aid and develop cloud services for patients.

In a general sense, the beauty of the cloud is the propensity to adapt to any company that is willing to go digital.

Even though many legacy companies are not natively digital, the cloud can twist and contort to fit the customers' needs.

Levie raised some compelling arguments for the continued tech momentum stating that imminent regulation in Europe through General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) will act as a "broader tailwind in compliance and security efforts."

Box also announced a "readiness (GDPR) package" revealing that tech companies have been planning for the regulation overhaul up to 18 months in advance.

Even though mass media sensationalism would lead investors to believe the threat of regulation is about to blindside this whole sector, the unrest has been bubbling up for quite some time allowing tech companies ample time to get their houses in order.

Box actually sees the genesis of GDPR as a critical part of the cloud adoption process.

As dinosaur systems become outdated, a sense of safety reinforced by strong cybersecurity protection, strong privacy rules, and content compliance will nudge companies to head for the cloud like a drunk sailor to a pub.

Legacy platforms are the most susceptible to cyber-criminals and rogue hackers.

The analog defense is no match for sophisticated cyber-espionage, and GDPR will be another "driving force" behind the macro-migration shift to the cloud, just based on the security aspect alone.

Another pearl of wisdom offered by Box is that the bulk of clients requiring cloud products are integrating Microsoft Office 365.

This software acts as a lynchpin to any cloud service.

I must confess that I am writing this story on Microsoft Office 365 now, and most businesses cannot function without the dizzying array of Excel, PowerPoint, and Word.

Box has a strong relationship with Microsoft and has incisive insight into the synergies the cloud industry spins off.

The integration of Office 365 has complemented the Azure cloud with tighter cohesiveness.

The school of thought is the collective cloud industry is a $50 billion per year market and growing, offering smaller firms healthy growth levers to advance at the same time that the Microsofts (MSFT) and Amazons (AMZN) overperform.

At the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and former Facebook executive, extolled Box as a great way to play Artificial Intelligence (AI).

The shares spiked almost 13% upon his adulation.

A recent completed survey showed 66% of business leaders feel the pace of digitization must pick up in their own offices.

The speed of innovation is something that keeps most CEOs up at night. Wake up tomorrow and it is possible their core products could be outdated or disrupted by a new Amazon threat.

That is the world we live in now.

Only 42% of CIOs admitted they have a digital strategy. And of those digital strategies, they are mostly digital second or third, not digital first, blueprints.

In the same PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) survey, companies conceded that only 40% of IT teams are able to pursue the newest innovations with adopting specific operational needs in mind.

The micro-environment harbors the same bullishness as the macro-factors.

Box is hitting all the right notes.

Revenue is advancing at a 24% per year clip, and annual revenue surpassed the half a billion mark.

Box has indicated it expects to cross the $1 billion annual revenue threshold sometime in mid- to late 2021, giving the company more than three years to double revenue.

Recent reports support Box's growth trajectory.

About 60% of revenue derives from firms that employ more than 2,000 workers, highlighting Box's propensity to emphasize enterprise cloud development instead of small individual users.

Working with larger companies gives Box the opportunity to cross-sell more powerful add-ons, delivering a net expansion rate of 14%.

Migrating to a new cloud platform is incredibly sticky boosting retention rates. Box's churn rate is flourishing with a best of breed 4% per year. The key to expediting cloud success is quickening its pace of new product rollout.

Box attempts to give exactly what customers need with a spate of new concoctions.

Box GxP is a new product calibrated around life science companies. The Box GxP compliance is up to date with FDA regulations. And, Box has the ability to retire legacy ECM (Enterprise Content Management) systems.

This new service has experienced solid traction around the world as we head toward a world where legacy software becomes obsolete.

The second new offering is Box Skills, still in beta mode, which is a part of Box's artificial intelligence strategy.

Box is platform neutral allowing in-house architecture to support partnerships with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and IBM to nail down third-party cloud tools that Box customers need.

Box Skills is a framework that brings the best machine learning innovation to content securely stored in Box.

This is managed through artificial intelligence, which automatically contextualizes images through detection protocols. Text recognition is automated for the benefit of the user, too.

Audio intelligence renders text transcripts and detects topics that can be searched in Box to locate an audio file by words or topic.

Video intelligence offers transcription, topic detection, and facial recognition allowing users to jump around video files in a non-linear fashion.

Palihapitiya effectively gave Box a free commercial to the tech investing world. His bull thesis for Box squarely centers around its AI innovations, specifically Box Skills.

The last new service to market is Box Transform, which is the advanced consulting arm of Box.

The goal of Transform is to arrange a concierge-like Box advisor that can help companies accelerate digital transformation throughout an organization while unlocking efficiencies and productivity for employees.

This service originated from Box's consulting advanced professional services team and will give Box another growth lever. Companies such as Red Hat and Intel have made the consultant- and support-side of the business a robust part of their organizations.

Impeding growth is the cutthroat competition in this space with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (GOOGL).

However, margins remain strong at 75.5% last quarter, and Box expects margins to slightly dip around 74% this year.

Box has found a warm welcome for its newer products, deriving almost 70% of its new deals from fresh cloud offerings.

Partners are also a big source of new deals comprising more than half the deals over $100,000.

Specifically, IBM (IBM) made up a swath of its larger deals. In a sense, competitors are not really competitors.

They are frenemies. They compete against each other yet innovate and do deals together.

The core growth is supplemented by existing customers that are the best source of extra marginal revenue.

In short, once firms are firmly lodged on a platform, they buy everything on that platform.

Enter a supermarket, and odds are if goods are purchased, the receipt will be from the entered supermarket.

Box is entirely leveraged toward mid-sized and large enterprise business. That is where it makes its money.

The emphasis on large players boosts the ACV (Average Contract Value), which is regarded as a sacrosanct metric for Box.

The amount of data created in 2017 was more data created in the past 5,000 years. In the next five years, data volume with grow by 800%.

Box has continually positioned itself as the firm that can extract a staggering amount of unrealized value locked away in the nooks and crannies of legacy models.

Box is a great long-term hold as these diminutive cloud assets become more valuable by the day.

 

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." - said Darryl F. Zanuck, co-founder of Twentieth Century-Fox Film Corp.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Expanding-revenue-image-4-e1524688537435.jpg 310 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-26 01:05:382018-04-26 01:05:38The Small AI Play You've Never Heard of
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (VXX) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-04-25 10:26:272018-04-25 10:26:27Trade Alert - (VXX) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
Arthur Henry

Trade Alert - (C) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-04-25 10:09:162018-04-25 10:09:16Trade Alert - (C) April 25, 2018 TAKE PROFITS
MHFTR

April 25, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 25, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, JUNE 12, NEW ORLEANS, LA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY IT'S A "SELL THE NEWS" MARKET),
(TLT)
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATABASE SEARCH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-25 01:09:062018-04-25 01:09:06April 25, 2018
MHFTR

Tuesday, June 12, New Orleans, LA, Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in New Orleans, LA, on Tuesday, June 12, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $268.

I'll be arriving at 11:30 AM, and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown restaurant. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for the luncheon, click on our online store.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Bourbon-street-story-1-e1522701493927.jpg 145 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-25 01:08:272018-04-25 01:08:27Tuesday, June 12, New Orleans, LA, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

Why It's a "Sell the News" Market

Diary, Newsletter, Research

It could have been the 3.0% print on the yield for the US 10-year Treasury bond yield (TLT).

It could have been the president's warlike comments on Iran.

It could even have been rocketing commodity prices that are driving consumer staple stocks out of business.

No, none of these are the reason why the stock market melted down 700 points intraday yesterday.

The real reason is that we have had too much fun for too long.

Some nine years and 400% into this bull market, investors are starting to take some money off the table.

Not a lot mind you, but enough to make a big difference on a single day.

The Fed was seen carrying off the punch bowl, and the neighbors have called the police. Clearly, the party is over. At least for now.

If you had to point to a single cause of the Tuesday rout in share prices it had to be Caterpillar's (CAT) rather incautious prediction that its earning peaked for this business cycle in Q1, and it was downward from here.

Traders, being the Einstein's that they are, extrapolated that to mean that ALL companies saw earnings peak in Q1, and you get an instant 700-point collapse.

I think they're wrong, but I have never been one to argue with Mr. Market. You might as well argue with the tides not to rise.

In a heartbeat, investors shifted from a "sell earnings on the news" to "sell NOW, earnings be damned."

All of this vindicates my call that markets would remained trapped in a wide trading range until the November congressional elections.

This has been further confirmed by the three-year chart of my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index.

For the second time this year, the Index peaked in the 40s, instead of the 80s, which is what you normally get in a bull market. The new trading strategy for the Index is to buy in the single digits and sell in the low 40s.

This is why I have been aggressively taking profits on long positions and slapping on short positions as hedges for the remaining longs. The Global Trading Dispatch model portfolio went into this week net short.

My Mad Hedge Technology Letter has only one 10% position left, in Microsoft (MSFT).

While a 3% 10-year is neither here nor there, the rapidly inverting yield curve is. The two-year/10-year spread is now a miniscule 53 basis points.

The 10-year/30-year spread is at a paper thin 18 basis points. To show you how insane this is, it means investors are accepting only an 18-basis point premium for lending money to the US government for an extra 20 years!

This is a function of the US Treasury focusing its new gargantuan trillion dollar borrowing requirements at the short end of the curve. This is the exact opposite of what they should be doing with yields still close to generational lows.

What this does is create a small short-term budgetary advantage at a very high long-term cost. This is constant with the government's other backward-looking Alice in Wonderland economic policies.

When the yield curve inverts, watch out below, because it means a recession is near.

If the stock market continues to trade like this, as I expect it will, you can expect the next stock market rally to start in two months when we ramp up into the Q2 earnings reports.

Until then, we will probably just chop around. Enjoy your summer.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Extreme-greed-story-2-image-e1524608408645.jpg 257 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-25 01:07:292018-04-25 01:07:29Why It's a "Sell the News" Market
MHFTR

April 25, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 25, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FANGS DELIVER ON EARNINGS, BUT FAIL ON PRICE ACTION),

(GOOGL), (AMZN), (MSFT), (AAPL), (FB),
(DBX), (NFLX), (BOX), (WDC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-25 01:06:532018-04-25 01:06:53April 25, 2018
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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