Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 31, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TRUTH ABOUT AUTOMATION AND BANKING)
(SQ), (PYPL), (APPL), (AMZN)
Automation is taking place at warp speed displacing employees from all walks of life.
According to a recent report, the U.S. financial industry will depose of 400,000 workers in the next decade because of automating efficiencies.
Yes, humans are going the way of the dodo bird and banking will effectively become algorithms working for a handful of executives and engineers.
The x-factor in this equation is the $150 billion annually that banks spend on technological development in-house which is higher than any other industry.
Welcome to the world of lower costs, shedding wage bills, and boosting performance rates.
We forget to realize that employee compensation eats up 50% of bank expenses.
The 400,000 job trimmings would result in 20% of the U.S. banking sector getting axed.
The hyped-up “golden age of banking” should deliver extraordinary savings and premium services to customers at no extra cost.
This iteration of mobile and online banking has delivered functionality that no generation of customers has ever seen.
The most gutted part of banking jobs will naturally occur in the call centers because they are the low-hanging fruit for the automated chatbots.
A few years ago, chatbots were suboptimal, even spewing out arbitrary profanity, but they have slowly crawled up in performance metrics to the point where some customers are unaware that they are communicating with an artificially engineered algorithm.
The wholesale integration of automating the back-office staff isn’t the end of it, the front office will experience a 30% drop in numbers sullying the predated ideology that front-office staff are irreplaceable heavy hitters.
Front-office staff has already felt the brunt of downsizing with purges carried out in 2022 representing a twelfth year of continuous decline.
Front-office traders and brokers are being replaced by software engineers as banks follow the wider trend of every company transitioning into a tech company.
The infusion of artificial intelligence will lower mortgage processing costs by 30% and the accumulation of hordes of data will advance the marketing effort into a smart, multi-pronged, hybrid cloud-based, and hyper-targeted strategy.
The last two human bank hiring waves are a distant memory.
The most recent spike came in the 7 years after the dot com crash of 2001 until the sub-prime crisis of 2008 adding around half a million jobs on top of the 1.5 million that existed then.
After the subsidies wear off from the pandemic, I do believe that the banking sector will quietly put in the call to trim even more.
The longest and most dramatic rise in human bankers was from 1935 to 1985, a 50-year boom that delivered over 1.2 million bankers to the U.S. workforce.
This type of human hiring will likely never be seen again in the U.S. financial industry.
Recomposing banks through automation is crucial to surviving as fintech companies like PayPal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) are chomping at the bit and even tech companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) have started tinkering with new financial products.
And if you thought that this phenomenon was limited to the U.S., think again, Europe is by far the biggest culprit by already laying off 102,000 employees in 2021, more than 10x higher than the number of U.S. financial job losses and that has continued in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
In a sign of the times, the European outlook has turned demonstrably negative with Deutsche Bank announcing layoffs of 40,000 employees as it scales down its investment banking business.
Don’t tell your kid to get into banking, because they will most likely be feeding on scraps at that point.
THE LAST STAGE OF HUMAN-FACING BANK SERVICES IS NOW!
Contents:
- Khelostar App Download: Your Guide to Online Casino Gaming in India
- Why Choose Khelostar for Online Casino Gaming?
- How to Download the Khelostar App on Android
- How to Download the Khelostar App on iOS
- Exploring the Features of the Khelostar App
- Tips for Safe and Responsible Gaming on Khelostar
- Frequently Asked Questions About Khelostar App
Welcome to the world of seamless betting and thrilling casino games with the Khelostar app download. As the premier betting application on the market, Khelostar offers an unparalleled gaming experience, combining cutting-edge casino software with user-friendly features. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a newcomer eager to explore, Khelostar provides a platform that caters to all your gaming needs. Dive into a universe where excitement meets convenience, and let Khelostar elevate your betting journey to new heights.
Khelostar App Download: Your Guide to Online Casino Gaming in India
The Khelostar app is revolutionizing the way Indian players engage with online casino gaming. With its user-friendly interface and a wide range of games, it offers an unparalleled betting experience. Whether you are a seasoned player or a newcomer, the Khelostar app provides a seamless platform for all your gaming needs.
In this guide, we will walk you through the process of downloading and installing the Khelostar app on your mobile device. We will also highlight the features that make this betting application a top choice for online casino enthusiasts in India.
How to Download the Khelostar App
Downloading the Khelostar app is a straightforward process. Follow these steps to get started:
- Visit the Official Website: Navigate to the official Khelostar website using your mobile browser.
- Locate the Download Link: Find the download link for the Khelostar app, usually available on the homepage or under the mobile app section.
- Download the App: Click on the download link to initiate the app download process.
Mobile Installation Process
Once the Khelostar app is downloaded, follow these steps to install it on your mobile device:
- Enable Unknown Sources: Go to your device settings and enable the installation of apps from unknown sources.
- Install the App: Open the downloaded file and follow the on-screen instructions to install the app.
- Launch the App: Once installed, open the app and create an account or log in to start playing.
Features of the Khelostar Betting Application
The Khelostar app offers a variety of features that enhance your online gaming experience:
- Wide Range of Games: From slots to table games, the app offers a diverse selection of casino games.
- User-Friendly Interface: The intuitive design ensures easy navigation and a smooth gaming experience.
- Secure Transactions: The app uses advanced encryption technology to protect your financial information.
- 24/7 Customer Support: Access to round-the-clock support for any queries or issues.
Why Choose Khelostar for Online Casino Gaming?
Khelostar stands out as a premier choice for online casino gaming in India due to its commitment to providing a safe and enjoyable gaming environment. The app's robust features, coupled with its focus on user satisfaction, make it a preferred platform for both casual and serious gamers.
| Feature | Benefit |
|---|---|
| Variety of Games | Endless entertainment options |
| Secure Transactions | Peace of mind while betting |
| 24/7 Support | Assistance whenever needed |
By choosing the Khelostar app, you are opting for a reliable and exciting online casino experience. Download the app today and immerse yourself in the world of online gaming.
Why Choose Khelostar for Online Casino Gaming?
In the rapidly evolving world of online casino gaming, selecting the right platform is crucial for an enjoyable and secure experience. Khelostar stands out as a premier choice for both novice and seasoned players. With its user-friendly interface and a wide array of games, Khelostar offers an unparalleled gaming experience.
Whether you are interested in strategic betting or simply want to enjoy the thrill of casino games, Khelostar provides a comprehensive platform that caters to all your gaming needs. The app's seamless integration and advanced casino software ensure a smooth and engaging experience for all users.
Comprehensive Game Selection
Khelostar offers an extensive range of games that cater to all types of players. From classic table games to modern slots, the platform ensures that there is something for everyone. The betting application is designed to provide easy access to popular games, allowing players to explore new options and find their favorites.
- Classic Table Games: Enjoy timeless games like Blackjack, Roulette, and Poker.
- Modern Slots: Experience high-quality graphics and innovative themes.
- Live Casino: Engage with live dealers for a realistic casino experience.
Advanced Casino Software
The backbone of Khelostar's success is its cutting-edge casino software. This technology ensures that all games run smoothly, providing players with a glitch-free experience. The software is regularly updated to incorporate the latest security features, ensuring that your personal and financial information is always protected.
- High Performance: Fast loading times and responsive gameplay.
- Security: Advanced encryption technology to safeguard data.
- Compatibility: Available on multiple devices for gaming on the go.
User-Friendly Interface
Khelostar's betting application is designed with the user in mind. The intuitive interface makes it easy for players to navigate through the platform and access their favorite games. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced player, the app provides a seamless experience that enhances your gaming journey.
- Easy Navigation: Simple layout for quick access to games and features.
- Personalized Experience: Customizable settings to suit individual preferences.
- Customer Support: 24/7 assistance to address any queries or issues.
Secure and Fair Gaming
At Khelostar, player security and fair play are top priorities. The platform employs state-of-the-art security measures to protect user data and ensure a safe gaming environment. Additionally, all games are regularly audited for fairness, providing players with a trustworthy and transparent gaming experience.
- Data Protection: Robust security protocols to safeguard information.
- Fair Play: Independent audits to ensure game integrity.
- Responsible Gaming: Tools and resources to promote healthy gaming habits.
How to Download the Khelostar App on Android
The Khelostar app offers a seamless casino experience on your Android device, providing access to a wide range of casino games and features. With its user-friendly interface and robust casino software, the app ensures that players enjoy a smooth and engaging gaming experience. In this guide, we will walk you through the steps to download and install the Khelostar app on your Android device.
Downloading the Khelostar app is a straightforward process, but it requires a few specific steps to ensure successful mobile installation. Follow the instructions below to get started with your Khelostar casino adventure.
Steps to Download and Install the Khelostar App
To enjoy the full range of casino games and features, follow these steps to download and install the Khelostar app on your Android device:
- Visit the Official Khelostar Website: Open your preferred web browser on your Android device and navigate to the official Khelostar website. This ensures that you download the app from a trusted source.
- Locate the Download Link: On the homepage, look for the Download App section. This section typically contains the link to download the Khelostar app for Android devices.
- Enable Unknown Sources: Before downloading, go to your device's Settings, select Security, and enable Unknown Sources. This allows you to install apps from sources other than the Google Play Store.
- Download the APK File: Click on the download link to start downloading the Khelostar APK file. Once the download is complete, locate the file in your device's Downloads folder.
- Install the App: Tap on the downloaded APK file to begin the installation process. Follow the on-screen instructions to complete the installation.
- Launch the Khelostar App: Once installed, open the app and log in with your existing account or create a new one to start playing your favorite casino games.
By following these steps, you can easily download and install the Khelostar app on your Android device, giving you access to a wide variety of casino games and features. Enjoy the convenience of mobile installation and the power of advanced casino software right at your fingertips.
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Casino Games | Access a wide range of games including slots, poker, and blackjack. |
| User-Friendly Interface | Navigate easily with a simple and intuitive design. |
| Secure Transactions | Enjoy safe and secure deposits and withdrawals. |
With the Khelostar app, you can experience the thrill of casino gaming anytime, anywhere. Download the app today and immerse yourself in the exciting world of online casinos.
How to Download the Khelostar App on iOS
The Khelostar app offers a seamless betting experience for iOS users, providing access to a wide range of casino games and sports betting options. This guide will walk you through the steps to download and install the Khelostar app on your iOS device, ensuring you can enjoy the full suite of features offered by this popular betting application.
With the increasing popularity of mobile betting, having the Khelostar app on your iPhone or iPad allows you to place bets anytime, anywhere. Follow these simple instructions to complete the mobile installation process efficiently.
Step-by-Step Guide to Downloading the Khelostar App on iOS
To get started with the Khelostar app on your iOS device, follow these steps:
- Visit the Official Khelostar Website: Open Safari or any web browser on your iOS device and navigate to the official Khelostar website. This ensures you are downloading the legitimate version of the app.
- Locate the iOS App Download Link: On the homepage, look for the Download section. Here, you will find the link to download the Khelostar app for iOS devices.
- Initiate the Download: Tap on the iOS download link. A prompt may appear, asking for permission to download the app. Confirm to proceed.
- Install the App: Once the download is complete, open the downloaded file. Your iOS device may ask for confirmation to install the app from an external source. Approve the installation.
- Trust the App Developer: Go to Settings > General > Device Management. Find the Khelostar app profile and tap Trust to allow the app to run on your device.
- Launch the App: After installation, locate the Khelostar app icon on your home screen. Open the app and log in with your credentials or create a new account to start betting.
By following these steps, you can easily complete the mobile installation of the Khelostar app on your iOS device, giving you access to a world of exciting betting opportunities.
For any issues during the download or installation process, refer to the FAQ section on the Khelostar website or contact their customer support for assistance. Enjoy a seamless betting experience with the Khelostar app on your iOS device!
Exploring the Features of the Khelostar App
The Khelostar app is a cutting-edge platform designed for casino enthusiasts and betting aficionados. This casino software offers a seamless experience for users looking to engage in thrilling gaming activities. With its user-friendly interface and robust features, the Khelostar app is a must-have for anyone interested in online betting.
In this article, we will delve into the various features of the Khelostar app, highlighting why it stands out in the crowded market of betting applications. Whether you're a seasoned player or a newcomer, the Khelostar app provides a comprehensive experience tailored to your gaming needs.
User-Friendly Interface
The Khelostar app boasts a user-friendly interface that makes navigation a breeze. Designed with the user in mind, the app ensures that players can easily access their favorite games and betting options. The intuitive layout allows for quick access to various sections, making it simple for users to find what they're looking for without any hassle.
Wide Range of Casino Games
One of the standout features of the Khelostar app is its extensive selection of casino games. From classic table games to modern slots, the app offers something for every type of player. Users can enjoy a diverse range of games, each designed with stunning graphics and engaging gameplay.
- Blackjack
- Roulette
- Slots
- Poker
Secure and Reliable Betting Platform
Security is a top priority for the Khelostar app. The platform employs advanced encryption technologies to ensure that user data is protected at all times. This secure betting application provides peace of mind to players, allowing them to focus on enjoying their gaming experience without worrying about security breaches.
Live Betting Options
For those who enjoy the thrill of live betting, the Khelostar app offers a comprehensive live betting feature. Users can place bets in real-time on a variety of sports and events, enhancing the excitement of the gaming experience. The live betting section is updated continuously, providing users with the latest odds and options.
Seamless Payment Methods
The Khelostar app supports a variety of payment methods, ensuring that users can deposit and withdraw funds with ease. From credit cards to e-wallets, the app offers multiple options to cater to different preferences. This flexibility makes it convenient for users to manage their accounts and enjoy uninterrupted gaming sessions.
- Credit/Debit Cards
- Bank Transfers
- e-Wallets
- Cryptocurrency
Customer Support
The Khelostar app provides excellent customer support to assist users with any queries or issues they may encounter. The support team is available 24/7, ensuring that help is always at hand. Whether it's a technical issue or a general inquiry, the customer support team is dedicated to providing prompt and effective assistance.
Tips for Safe and Responsible Gaming on Khelostar
Engaging in online gaming can be an exciting experience, especially when using platforms like Khelostar. However, it's crucial to practice safe and responsible gaming to ensure a positive experience. This guide provides essential tips to help you enjoy gaming responsibly on the Khelostar app.
With the convenience of mobile installation and advanced casino software, Khelostar offers a seamless gaming experience. Let's explore how you can maintain a healthy balance while enjoying your favorite games.
Set a Budget and Stick to It
One of the most important aspects of responsible gaming is setting a budget. Determine how much you can afford to spend on gaming each month and adhere to this limit. This ensures that you do not overspend and helps maintain financial stability.
- Decide on a weekly or monthly gaming budget.
- Use the budget feature available in the Khelostar app to track your spending.
- Avoid chasing losses by sticking to your predetermined budget.
Understand the Games
Before diving into any game, it's crucial to understand the rules and mechanics. This knowledge not only enhances your gaming experience but also helps you make informed decisions.
- Read the game rules and instructions provided in the casino software.
- Utilize demo versions to practice without financial risk.
- Join forums or communities to learn tips from experienced players.
Take Regular Breaks
Continuous gaming can lead to fatigue and poor decision-making. Regular breaks are essential to maintain focus and enjoy gaming responsibly.
- Set a timer to remind yourself to take breaks.
- Engage in other activities to refresh your mind.
- Use the Khelostar app's built-in features to manage your gaming time effectively.
Use Self-Exclusion Tools
If you feel that gaming is becoming overwhelming, consider using self-exclusion tools. These tools help you take a break from gaming and regain control.
- Access the self-exclusion options within the Khelostar app.
- Set time limits or restrict access to certain games.
- Seek support if you find it challenging to manage gaming habits.
Seek Support When Needed
Responsible gaming also involves recognizing when you need help. If gaming starts to affect your personal life, seek support from professionals or support groups.
- Contact support services available through the Khelostar platform.
- Join online forums for advice and support from peers.
- Consider professional counseling if gaming impacts your well-being.
For more information on responsible gaming and to explore exciting gaming options, visit ludo khelo india. Enjoy gaming responsibly and make the most of your experience on Khelostar.
The Khelostar app offers a seamless experience for users looking to engage with casino software on their mobile devices. The app's user-friendly interface and easy mobile installation process make it a top choice for gaming enthusiasts.
Throughout this FAQ, we've addressed key aspects of the Khelostar app, from installation to gameplay, ensuring that users have all the information needed to enjoy their gaming experience fully.
Key Takeaways
- Casino Software: The Khelostar app provides a robust platform for a variety of casino games, ensuring high-quality graphics and smooth gameplay.
- Mobile Installation: The app is designed for quick and easy installation on both Android and iOS devices, allowing users to start playing without unnecessary delays.
- User Experience: With its intuitive design, the app ensures that both new and experienced players can navigate and enjoy the games effortlessly.
By understanding these elements, users can maximize their enjoyment and engagement with the Khelostar app. For those eager to explore more, downloading the app is the first step towards an exciting gaming journey.
Q&A:
How do I download the Khelostar app?
To download the Khelostar app, visit the official website of Khelostar on your mobile device. Look for the "Download" section, which will guide you through the process of installing the betting application. Ensure your device settings allow installations from unknown sources to successfully download the casino software.
Is the Khelostar app available for both Android and iOS?
Yes, the Khelostar app is available for both Android and iOS devices. Android users can download the app directly from the Khelostar website, while iOS users can find it on the Apple App Store. This ensures that you can enjoy the full range of casino software features on your preferred device.
What features does the Khelostar app offer?
The Khelostar app provides a comprehensive betting application experience, featuring a wide variety of casino games, live betting options, and secure payment methods. Users can enjoy seamless navigation and a user-friendly interface, making it easy to place bets and manage their accounts on the go.
Is the Khelostar app safe to use?
Yes, the Khelostar app is designed with user safety in mind. The casino software employs advanced security measures, including encryption and secure payment gateways, to protect user data and transactions. Always download the app from official sources to ensure the highest level of security.
(APRIL IS HERE - WHEN THE TARIFF UNCERTAINTY MAY BECOME A KNOWN CERTAINTY)
March 31, 2025
Hello everyone
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
MONDAY, MARCH 31
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (March)
10:00 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (March)
7:30 p.m. Japan Unemployment Rate
Previous: 2.5%
Forecast: 2.5%
TUESDAY, APRIL 1
12:30 a.m. Australia Rate Decision
Previous: 4.1%
Forecast: 4.1%
9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing final (March)
10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (February)
10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (March)
10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (February)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2
8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (March)
10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (February)
10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (February)
10:00 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank
Deputy SOMA Manager Julie Remache speaks at a seminar in Monetary and Fiscal Policy at Vanderbilt University, Nashville.
8:30 p.m. Australia Trade Balance
Previous: A$5.6B
Forecast: A$5.6B
THURSDAY, APRIL 3
8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (03/22)
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/29)
8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (February)
9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (March)
9:45 a.m. S&PPMI Services final (March)
10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (March)
FRIDAY, APRIL 4
8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (March)
8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (March)
8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (March)
8;30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (March)
Previous: 151k
Forecast: 128k
8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (March)
8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (March)
8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (March)
9:00 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank
Director of Research Kartik Athreya speaks at the 2025 New York Fed Innovation Conference, New York.
April is tariff month, I think, unless President Trump changes his mind.
The stock market is on tenterhooks waiting for some known path forward. Investors are similarly agitated as policy changes from the White House have kept everyone off balance and confused about what is the best area to buy into and which sectors should be sold off.
It may be that come April 2, the market will have enough certainty to get some sort of boost – a temporary relief rally. But that would be a sell into space as tariffs are a negative any way you look at them. They will be disruptive to the US and global supply chains, negative for US and global growth and, for the US and economies that retaliate, inflationary.
And tariffs are just one slice of the economic picture, which is looking increasingly challenging. Consumer sentiment is showing weakness, inflation is expected to surge, and unemployment numbers are rising. Recession signs are showing up everywhere.
The U.S. share market fell 2 percent last Friday. It’s down more than 9 percent since Trump announced his plan for reciprocal tariffs in the middle of last month – with the tech-heavy Nasdaq market down 2.7 percent and the “Mag Seven” mega-tech stocks down 3.5 percent.
Most US business economists have been revising down their expectations of US economic growth this year from an original consensus of GDP growth of around 2 percent. Some investment banks’ forecasts are below 1 percent.
With inflation remaining stubbornly high – above the Fed’s 2 percent target even before the core of Trump’s tariffs plans is unveiled, the risk of stagflation – falling growth even while inflation remains high – is rising. Without a material fall in the inflation rate, the Fed will be forced to keep interest rates on hold.
Trump’s tariffs policy is a game where no one wins. It is doubtful that anything Trump does will materially shrink America’s trade deficit unless it results in a substantial reduction in US living standards and an America that lives within its (diminishing) means. And it is something to think about that he might inadvertently actually achieve that.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P500
The view of a major top since Feb. remains. There is scope for further consolidation/ranging before a strong resumption of the downtrend resumes.
Support: $5555/65/$5500
Resistance: $5675/85 and $5795
GOLD
Gold has pushed to another new high, but the market is seen within the final up leg in the rally from the Feb 28th low (wave v) as well as the larger up move from the Nov. low at $2537, which suggests a rising risk of a peak for at least a few months.
Support: ~$3050/$3025/$2995
Resistance: $3095
BITCOIN
No change. Bitcoin is still seen basing in a large correction, with eventual new highs above that $109 area after. As I have already pointed out, we could see lower lows in the low $70’s or even the high $60’s, before the correction is exhausted.
Support: $81.5k/$77k/$73.5k
Resistance: $$88/$89 area/$92/$99.5k
QI CORNER
HISTORY CORNER
On March 31
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Cheers
Jacquie
Global Market Comments
March 31, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or STAGFLATION IS ON!)
(COST), (BRK/B), (GS), (MS), (NVDA), (AMZN), (TLT), (GLD), (GM), (TSLA)
There is no doubt that the data released out on Friday were a complete disaster for stock investors. The Dow Average futures posted a 1,000-point swing, from up 200 in the overnight markets to down 800 intraday.
Specifically, the Consumer Price Index came in at a hot 0.4%, which is 4.8% annualized. Five-year Inflation Expectations, which the Fed follows most closely, rocketed to 6.0%. Worse yet, Consumer Confidence rose only 0.1% for the second month in a row, the worst performance in 12 years. Friday was the day that the hard data met the soft data and concluded that the recession was on.
That screeching noise you hear is the economy grinding to a halt.
Stock markets absolutely hate stagflation. The last time we had stagflation was during the Ford and Carter administrations during the 1970s, when it took eight years for the Dow to rise a measly 1,000 points. Back then, Wall Street shrank to a fraction of its former self.
This all richly justifies my downside target of 5,000 for the S&P 500, off 20% from the February top, which is increasingly becoming a mainstream prediction. If I am wrong, it will plunge to 4,500, or down 30%.
We were promised animal spirits that would set markets on fire. Instead, the animals are sent back into hibernation and the markets are being snuffed out. I watch every single data release that comes out on a daily basis, and it is amazing how fast they are almost all rolling over at once.
The combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is described by one infamous word: Stagflation. What’s worse, we are only one month into a stagflationary trend that could run for many months or years.
As a result, we have seen the worst start to a year since Q1 2020, the last time Trump was president. March was the worst month in 3 ½ years. It seems the stock market heartily agrees with my view.
It gets worse.
All earnings estimates for this year are based on record corporate profit margins. If those margins fail to hold when earnings are announced in the coming weeks, it may trigger the second 10% leg down in the major averages. More concerning is the forward guidance companies may provide.
It turns out that companies watch the daily data releases too. Companies sitting on their hands, not investing or hiring, can itself alone cause recessions. Right now, nobody knows what the heck to do.
The final shoe to fall will be a sharp spike up in the headline Unemployment Rate. We get the next read on this on Friday, April 4. It’s just a question of how soon this shows up in the data. Right now, hundreds of thousands of workers have been fired but are still receiving paychecks while their status is being challenged in the courts. So they aren’t being counted as unemployed….yet.
Some 42% of all the hiring in the US over the past three years has been in just two sectors, healthcare and education. That is where the biggest cuts are being made now. It’s all about getting ahead of the curve.
Let me tell you how bad things can get.
On Wednesday, the president announced 25% import duties for completed cars. General Motors (GM) makes about 30% of its cars in Mexico and Canada. As a result, (GM) may have to raise some car prices by 10%-25%. But the president has ordered (GM) not to raise prices at all.
It costs $20 billion and takes four years to build a new car factory in the US from scratch. This all turns (GM) into the perfect money-destruction machine. (GM) may not survive. And you wonder why I have been short (GM) stock two months in a row. Trump must really hate Detroit.
Believe it or not, there is a silver lining to all this.
If you missed the great bull market of the last five years, when the major indexes more than doubled, you are eventually going to get a second bite at the apple. Share prices are dropping so fast that we may get to a final capitulation selloff rather quickly. Then we will be spoiled for choice with stocks that have easy doubles and triples in them.
Let me tell you a trader’s trick.
Watch the shares of companies that have the sharpest rises on the rare up days. These are the ones that institutions are willing to jump into and hold on to forever, the permanent earnings compounders. If you take a look at the longs in the Mad Hedge Model Trading Portfolio, they all meet these criteria. They include (COST), (BRK/B), (GS), (MS), (NVDA), and (AMZN).
Buying bonds (TLT) and gold (GLD) going into a recession may not be a bad idea either. And for those who don’t want to play when the going gets rough, there are always 90-day US Treasury bills yielding 4.20%. They are government-guaranteed.
March is now up +3.17% so far. That takes us to a year-to-date profit of +12.64% so far in 2025. That means Mad Hedge has been operating as a perfect -1X short S&P 500 ETF since the February top. My trailing one-year return stands at a spectacular +81.35%. That takes my average annualized return to +49.82% and my performance since inception to +764.63%.
It has been another busy week for trading. I took profits on the short in (NVDA), which collapsed in the latest tech-driven leg down. I added a new long in (COST), a position I have been trying to get into for years, and it immediately started to make money.
I also stopped out of my two auto shorts in (GM) and (TSLA) at cost. Then Trump moved up his auto tariff announcements by a week, and both positions shot up to max profits. Welcome to trading in the Trump administration. In this period of extreme uncertainty, I have tightened up my stop-loss strategy to avoid big losses.
Some 63 of my 70 round trips, or 90%, were profitable in 2023. Some 74 of 94 trades have been profitable in 2024, and several of those losses were really break-even. That is a success rate of +78.72%.
Try beating that anywhere.
Stagflation Accelerates, with a hot 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index and a tepid 0.1% increase in Consumer Spending, the worst since the Pandemic. One-year inflation expectations have shot up to 5.0%. Today is the day the hard data met the soft data and jointly agreed that we are in a recession. S&P 500 5,000 here we come!
25% Auto Import Tariffs Become Official on April 2. The auto industry, once the largest in the US, says it will trigger a recession. Car prices will rise an average of $5,000 per vehicle. Expect the economies of Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois to get demolished as they feed a lot of the parts into Detroit. Steel will also be affected. Some 30% of autos made by US companies are assembled in Canada and Mexico. Which US car makers have the highest share of American content? Tesla.
US GDP Grows 2.4%, during the October-December quarter. These may be the last positive numbers we see for a while as the country heads into recession.
Bonds Rocket, with inflation now running at a 5% annual rate, and the tariffs should add another 1%. That means the next Fed move is likely to be an interest rate RISE, while the unemployment rate is rising. That’s a worst-case scenario for the economy and the stock market.
Moody’s Warns of a Downgrade of the United States, saying Trump’s trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates. Recession risks are rising.
Canada Freezes Rebates for Tesla Purchasers. Canada has frozen C$43 million ($30.11 million) of rebate payments for Tesla. Buyers had been eligible for a $5,000 rebate on vehicles costing less than $65,000. Tesla’s Q1 sales out next week is expected to be terrible. Avoid (TSLA).
S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index Rises 4.7% YOY. Home price growth held steady at 0.5% M/M, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in January, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index composite for 20 cities. On an unadjusted basis, the Case-Shiller HPI for 20 cities inched up 0.1% from a month earlier, decelerating from the +0.2% consensus and accelerating from the previous month's -0.1%. On a Y/Y basis, the gauge climbed 4.7%, vs. +4.6% expected and +4.5% prior.
Consumer Confidence Plunges, by the most in five years, according to the conference. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7.2 points to 92.9, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94. The soft data for the economy continues to look horrific.
FedEx Gets Crushed, another early recession indicator. Fewer things are shipped in shrinking economies. Fears about a U.S. recession and President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariff rates starting April 2 could threaten FedEx’s earnings, Paterson said in a Friday note to clients. Memphis-based FedEx is generally regarded as a barometer of the global economy, as its business touches a wide variety of global industries.
Next-Gen Chips are Power Hogs. Big tech companies, which are all betting heavily on AI, will undoubtedly buy those chips, even if the price skyrockets. But there’s growing evidence that there won’t be enough electricity to power all of their AI dreams. Some new AI apps use 150 times more power than the old ones.
My Ten-Year View – A Reassessment
We have to substantially downsize our expectations of equity returns in view of the election outcome. My new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties is now looking at multiple gale-force headwinds. The economy will completely stop decarbonizing. Technology innovation will slow. Trade wars will exact a high price. Inflation will return. The Dow Average will rise by 600% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. My Dow 240,000 target has been pushed back to 2035.
On Monday, March 31, at 8:30 AM EST, the Chicago PMI is announced.
On Tuesday, April 1, at 8:30 AM, the JOLTS Job Openings Report is released.
On Wednesday, April 2, at 1:00 PM, the ADP Employment Change is published.
On Thursday, April 3, at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are disclosed. We also get the final report for Q1 GDP.
On Friday, April 4, at 8:30 AM, the Nonfarm Payroll Report for March is printed. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Rig Count is printed.
As for me, back in 2002, I flew to Iceland to do some research on the country’s national DNA sequencing program called Decode, which analyzed the genetic material of everyone in that tiny nation of 250,000. It was the boldest project yet in the field and had already led to several breakthrough discoveries.
Let me start by telling you the downside of visiting Iceland. In the country that has produced three Miss Universes over the last 50 years, suddenly you are the ugliest guy in the country. Because guess what? The men are beautiful as well, the descendants of Vikings who became stranded there after they cut down all the forests on the island for firewood, leaving nothing with which to build long boats.
I said they were beautiful, not smart.
Still, just looking is free and highly rewarding.
While I was there, I thought it would be fun to trek across Iceland from North to South in the spirit of Shackleton, Scott, and Amundsen. I went alone because, after all, how many people do you know who want to trek across Iceland? Besides, it was only 150 miles, or ten days to cross. A piece of cake really.
Near the trailhead, the scenery could have been a scene from Lord of the Rings, with undulating green hills, craggy rock formations, and miniature Icelandic ponies galloping in herds. It was nature in its most raw and pristine form. It was all breathtaking.
Most of the central part of Iceland is covered by a gigantic glacier over which a rough trail is marked by stakes planted in the snow every hundred meters. The problem arises when fog or blizzards set in, obscuring the next stake and making it too easy to get lost. Then you risk walking into a fumarole, a vent from the volcano under the ice, always covered by boiling water. About ten people a year die this way.
My strategy for avoiding this cruel fate was very simple. Walk 50 meters. If I could see the next stake, I would proceed. If I couldn’t, I pitched my tent and waited until the storm passed.
It worked.
Every 10 kilometers stood a stone rescue hut with a propane stove for adventurers caught out in storms. I thought they were for wimps but always camped nearby for the company.
One of the challenges in trekking near the North Pole is getting to sleep. That’s because the sun never sets and it's daylight all night long. The problem was easily solved with the blindfold that came with my Icelandic Air first-class seat.
I was 100 miles into my trek, approached my hut for the night, and opened the door to say hello to my new friends.
What I saw horrified me.
Inside was an entire German Girl Scout Troop spread out in their sleeping bags all with a particularly virulent case of the flu. In the middle was a girl lying on the floor, soaking wet and shivering, who had fallen into a glacier-fed river. She was clearly dying of hypothermia.
I was pissed and instantly went into Marine Corps Captain mode, barking out orders left and right. Fortunately, my German was still pretty good then, so I instructed every girl to get out of their sleeping bags and pile them on top of the freezing scout. I then told them to strip the girl of her wet clothes and reclothe her with dry replacements. They could have their bags back when she got warm. The great thing about Germans is that they are really good at following orders.
Next, I turned the stove burners up high to generate some heat. Then I rifled through backpacks and cooked up what food I could find, force-fed it into the scouts, and emptied my bottle of aspirin. For the adult leader, a woman in her thirties who was practically unconscious, I parted with my emergency supply of Jack Daniels.
By the next morning, the frozen girl was warm, the rest were recovering, and the leader was conscious. They thanked me profusely. I told them I was an American “Adler Scout” (Eagle Scout) and was just doing my job.
One of the girls cautiously moved forward and presented me with a small doll dressed in a traditional German Dirndl, which she said was her good luck charm. Since I was her good luck, I should have it. It was the girl who was freezing to death the day before.
Some 20 years later, I look back fondly on that trip and would love to do it again.
Anyone want to go to Iceland?
Iceland 2002
Good Luck and Good Trading,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
“Life is too short to hang out with people who aren’t resourceful,” said Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 28, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN UP AND COMING SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM)
(RDDT), (GOOGL)
Social media stock Reddit (RDDT) has fallen dramatically from February and is one of those companies readers need to mark down as one to buy at a discount.
Even though the stock has more than halved, this platform is one that has made major inroads into the cultural and social fabric of English language discussion.
It is true in the short-term, it is facing tough comparisons to the bigger giants like Facebook, Instagram, and Snap.
There is clear evidence that the boost to traffic and visibility from Google’s (GOOGL) changes is hitting a ceiling, with a risk that we are entering a period of diminishing returns.
Reddit's daily active user growth will slow to 19% in 2025.
Google’s expanded relationship could turn on a dime and that looks like the likely outcome here.
Google’s search algorithm is not adding as many Reddit subscribers as it used to.
Reddit is not a behemoth, but everybody in Silicon knows this company.
The mid-term problem for Reddit boils down to the lack of profitability.
When you consider that the weakness in Reddit has coincided with a brutal macro-induced selloff, then Reddit is starting to crawl back into an attractive zone for long-term buy-and-hold investors.
When this tariff chaos starts to calm down, I do believe Reddit stock will turn sharply higher.
At its February peak, Reddit’s stock had risen over 500% from the $34 initial public offering price last March. Some of the enthusiasm was due to a series of deals in which Reddit was paid to allow its content to be used for training artificial intelligence models. More recently, though, there have been questions about the long-term growth prospects for the artificial intelligence industry.
Remember that Reddit is in the early stages of executing on a robust, multi-year user and monetization growth opportunity.
There is also the potential to add many other non-English language markets.
Reddit’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 66 moves greater than 5% over the last year.
There is also the critical issue of investors not knowing the company well enough because Reddit’s brand is still way too small.
The diminutive stature of Reddit’s brand footprint has translated into less marketing interest.
Smaller companies are susceptible to the whims of Google Search and Amazon e-commerce.
These types of bigger companies can stifle growth by becoming too reliant on search results making Reddit.com harder to find.
Surely, investors wouldn’t believe it is realistic if the stock continued its rise peaking at $230 per share.
The comedown has been remarkable, but to be honest, many other tech stocks have been beaten up pretty good too lately.
Reddit needs to fall another $20 and then I would say that is a great entry point into an upstart social media stock.
In the meantime, the global trade fights continue to hog center stage.
Pessimism continues to grow in the US, but we still haven’t hit a recession.
“If something's important enough, you should try. Even if - the probable outcome is failure.” – Said Elon Musk
