In case you missed it, the second hand animal market has crashed. Forced to slash budgets by cash starved municipalities, the nation?s public zoos have been paring back their collections of living exhibits.
The Washington Zoo is trying to offload a 7,000 pound hippopotamus; while the San Francisco Zoo is short some tigers after one ate a visitor and had to be shot. The Portland Zoo was able to liquidate a portfolio of lemurs only because of the popularity of the recent DreamWorks? ?Madagascar 2? animated film.
When zoos are forced to economize, they downsize the big eaters first to save on feed costs; hence, the absence of elephants in San Francisco (Could this be a political gesture?). In fact, zoo staff were recently busted for illegally harvesting acacia on private property, a favorite food of giraffes, which grows wild here after its introduction a century ago. The hardest to move? Baltimore has been trying to sell its snake collection for two years now. Talk about an illiquid market. Maybe they should try AIG. Snake derivatives anyone?
Pink Slips for Tony?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/siberian-tiger-6.jpg400315DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-12 23:03:372012-04-12 23:03:37Budget Cuts Hit the Wild Animal Market
I couldn?t for the life of me figure out why New York?s former governor and federal prosecutor, Elliot Spitzer, wanted to invite me to dinner. He wasn?t flogging a book or promoting a movie, and he certainly wasn?t running for office again. But I went anyway, thinking perhaps the notorious ?Client No.9? might let me peek at his famous black book.
Elliot, who showed up wearing a classic New York blue pin stripped suit that seems oddly out of place in San Francisco, is currently running his family?s commercial real estate business. He told me that the advantages that the US enjoyed over the rest of the world in 1945, such as a monopoly in skilled labor, are now long gone. The driver of the world economy has switched from America to Asia in the nineties.
As a result, income distribution here has morphed from a bell shaped curve to a barbell, with both the wealthy and the poor increasing in numbers, squeezing the middle class. The financial crisis compressed 30 years of change into two, taking us from libertarian Ayn Rand to pay czar Ken Feinberg in one giant leap.
Having cut his teeth prosecuting the Gambino crime family in the eighties, Elliot had some views on the need for more regulation. We only need to enforce the laws on the books, not pass new ones. The ?white collarization? of organized crime has been a secular trend since the sixties. He said the ethical lapses in the run up to the crash were best characterized by a quote from Merrill Lynch?s Jack Robins; ?What used to be a conflict of interest is now a synergy.?
AIG getting 100 cents on the dollar was the greatest scam in history. The US did not extract a high enough price from highly paid executives and shareholders of financial institutions for failure, and should have let more firms go under. As for his own scandal last year, Elliot admitted that he failed, that his flaws were made publicly apparent, and that other politicians should be smarter than he was.
Although Elliot had some good ideas, I was still puzzled over what this was all about as I ploughed through my creme brulee. Perhaps the governor has a pathological need to be in front of the spotlight, even at the risk of flaming out. And no luck with the black book.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/creme.jpg240320DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-12 23:02:372012-04-12 23:02:37Dinner With Elliot Spitzer
?People that have complete disdain for government intervention in the economy and markets of the West have complete faith in nine guys in a room being able to figure out the very complex and rapidly growing Chinese economy,? said hedge fund manager Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates, about foreign investors? unlimited faith in the Middle Kingdom?s politburo
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/flag.jpg150150DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-12 23:01:212012-04-12 23:01:21April 13, 2012 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/investing-a-z-stock-market-game-for-students.jpg240320Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-12 12:14:592012-04-12 12:14:59Follow Up - (BA) April 12, 2012
Note to self. Don't do your midnight pee next to the bear box. They're called that for a reason. And I'm sorry that my shouting at the hungry, six foot tall black bear standing in front of me, no doubt attracted by my Cheetos, hot dogs, and marshmallows, woke up the campers at the 57 surrounding sites.
Of course it was too dark to find my bear spray. My ursine challenger eventually saw the merit of my logic that the neighbor's bacon stuffed ice chest was more appealing than me, and lumbered off into the darkness. Such was the conclusion of my camping trip on the California coast last weekend.
I am now dealing with a bear of a different sort, the financial kind. Never have I seen such a disconnect between the markets and the real economy. We have a 4% GDP stock market and a 2% GDP real economy.
All of a sudden the world has gotten expensive. Stock prices have been levitated by vapor in a faith based rally. Cost cutting, not sales growth, has artificially boosted earnings above subterranean forecasts. Commodity prices are now rolling over because of soured speculation and stockpiling and a dearth of real end consumption. This year?s rise has been entirely driven by multiple expansion, from 11 to 14 times earnings. Will this multiple expand further when earnings disappoint, as Alcoa just did with a 69% YOY drop in profits?
I am using the big up days to buy short dated out-of- the-money puts, which if I get things right should double in value. That's because I keep my favorite quote from John Maynard Keynes pasted to my monitor, ?Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.? Sure we're going down more, but zero interest rates won't let us crash. Date your short positions, don?t marry them. This is not the big one. For that, you?ll have to wait until next year.
Date, Don?t Marry Those Short Positions
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Marry.jpg321400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-11 23:03:092012-04-11 23:03:09Date, Don?t Marry Those Short Positions
I am getting a lot of emails about how to come out of the $450-$480 Apple bull call spread, which I advised readers to go into on March 2. Now that we are deep in the money, what is the best way to take a profit?
Well, the first thing for me is to say congratulations. My expectation that Apple stock would continue grinding up has paid off handsomely. The entire position expires next week, on April 20. So the best thing to do here is nothing. You are so far in the money that you are almost certain to expire at the maximum profit point.
So just leave it alone. You don?t have to do anything. The $450 and $480 calls will cancel out each other, and your broker should post a cash credit to your account the following Monday, thus freeing up the margin requirement.
If you try to come out here the execution costs could unnecessarily eat up a chunk of your profit. Since there are two call options involved, that means paying a double trading spread. There is no need for you to pay for a bigger yacht for your broker this early in the year.
The only reason to come out earlier is that you think Apple might fall $150 in the next seven trading days. Given that the Justice Department announced an antitrust action against the company this morning an only knocked the stock down $10, I think this is unlikely.
Your net profit on this position should be $1,855, or? $1.86% for the notional $100,000 portfolio. I include my calculations below. Well done.
Execution
March $450 call cost?????... $97.60
March $480 call premium earned?-$70.25
Total profit = ($2.65 X 100 X 7) = $1,855 = $1.86% for the notional $100,000 portfolio.
Thanks, Steve
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-11 23:02:332012-04-11 23:02:33Taking profits on Apple
My problem with the stock market is that I fail to see who the incremental buyer will be to take the S&P 500 to 1,500. It?s not going to be the retail investor who has been hit with a 34% drop in home prices, two market crashes in the last decade, and a flash crash while their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. The last thing on their minds right now is to buy stocks,? said Doug Kass of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/The_Thinking_Man_6230651_std.jpg311299DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-11 23:01:592012-04-11 23:01:59April 12, 2012 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg316600Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-11 15:19:522012-04-11 15:19:52Trade Alert - (BA) April 11, 2012
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-11 12:00:402012-04-11 12:00:40Trade Alert - (IWM) April 11, 2012
The prospect of a runaway printing press at the Federal Reserve has been the overwhelming factor driving risk assets in 2012.? Being the sober, cautious guy that you all know me to be, I did not join the party. I tell people this is because if I lose all my money I am too old to start over again as an entry level trader at Morgan Stanley.
There is the additional complication that they probably wouldn?t touch me with a ten foot poll anyway. I never was much of an organization man, and in any case the firm has changed beyond all recognition from the small, white shoed, private partnership I knew during the early 1980?s.
Not that I am a party pooper. In fact, I believe that the prospect of further quantitative easing is a complete. The LTRO, Europe?s own quantitative easing, also known as QE3 through the backdoor, with a foreign accent and without a green card, never made over to the US. It poured into European sovereign debt instead, then yielding 8% to 15% for investment grade paper. On my advice, the Chinese government lapped it up.
You can see this clear as day by looking at the chart below prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, which tabulates a broad, adjusted monetary base. It has been flat as a pancake since QE2 ended on June 30, 2011. That is the day the $75 billion a month in government bond buying abruptly ended. It also was the day that the meteoric assent by the broader money supply came to a screeching halt.
The implications of this for the stock market are not good. It means that the entire rally in global equities from the October lows has been faith based. As I never tire of telling my guests at my strategy luncheons, faith based actions are religions, not investment strategies, and the church down the street can do a far better job at this than I can. Take away that faith, turn traders back into the mercenary agnostics that they really are, and all of a sudden stocks look very expensive.
Listeners to my biweekly strategy webinars already know that we have a 4% GDP stock market and a 2% GDP economy. We also have PE multiple for stocks expanding just when analysis are chopping forecasts as fast as they can. Outside of Apple and Google, who is really going to announce a blowout Q1, 2012, with China and Europe in a race to see who can get into recession the fastest, the source of 50% of S&P 500 earnings?
Now that I have had my say, I?m taking the rest of the afternoon off. There is a major storm approaching the US west coast and with luck, I can surf some 50 foot waves at the nearby Mavericks, dodging jagged rocks along the way. Like I said, I was always a sober, cautious guy.
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