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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 27, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 27, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE BIOTECH LEATHERNECK THAT WON’T STAND DOWN)

(VRTX), (CRSP), (ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-27 12:02:132024-06-27 13:08:39June 27, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Biotech Leatherneck That Won't Stand Down

Biotech Letter

Back in my Marine days, I remember being dropped in the middle of nowhere during a grueling field exercise. No map, no compass, just our wits and training to guide us back to base.

The odds were stacked against us, but we adapted, improvised, and overcame. Fast forward to roughly half a century, and I'm seeing the same spirit in an unlikely place - the biotechnology sector.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) has been executing maneuvers that would make any seasoned Marine proud. They move with the precision of a well-oiled M16 and the adaptability of a Force Recon team.

Their strategic acquisitions? As coordinated as an amphibious landing. That pipeline of theirs? Locked and loaded like a Marine fire team.

As I dive into Vertex's recent maneuvers, I can't help but see parallels to the strategies we used to employ. They're not just developing drugs – they're waging a full-scale assault on diseases that have long evaded defeat.

It's this Marine-like tenacity that's kept this $122 billion biotech on my radar, and why I think they've still got plenty of fight left in them.

Remember when I last wrote about Vertex in February? The stock was already hotter than a mess tent coffee pot then. Since that newsletter, it's climbed another 10%, leaving the S&P 500 in its dust like a young boot on a forced march.

And if you've been holding onto Vertex for the past decade? Well, pour yourself a whiskey and celebrate. You're sitting on a 545% return. That's not a typo, my friends. It has truly beaten the S&P 500 by over 300 points.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "John," you say, "hasn't this non-dividend payer run out of ammo after adding $20 billion to its market cap?" Well, let me tell you why I think Vertex still has enough firepower to make even a seasoned Gunny sit up and take notice.

So, here's the skinny on Vertex – they've got a knack for developing groundbreaking drugs that would make even our old field medics green with envy. They lock 'em down with patents tighter than a drill sergeant's schedule, and dominate niche markets like we used to dominate obstacle courses.

In Q1 2024, Vertex hauled in $2.69 billion in revenue, up 14% from last year. That's not just chump change – that's serious cabbage, even by Wall Street standards.

But here's where it gets interesting, and I mean more interesting than finding an unopened can of beer in your rucksack after a long hump.

Vertex isn't just sitting pretty. Their late-stage pipeline is packed tighter than a C-130 on deployment day, full of potential blockbusters that could change lives – and fatten our wallets.

Take Vanzacaftor, for instance. This cystic fibrosis drug is showing more promise than a boot camp graduate on family day. If it lives up to the hype, we could be looking at a new gold standard in CF treatment.

And then there's Suzetrigine. Now, this one's got me more excited than a three-day pass in Vegas. It's a non-opioid painkiller, and with the opioid crisis still raging harder than a Category 5 hurricane, a safe, effective alternative could be a game-changer.

Early data looks promising, and Vertex is pushing to finish its rolling submission by Q2 2024. As for its potential market? Well, that's bigger than the chow line on Thanksgiving.

We're talking about 80 million patients prescribed pain meds in the U.S. every year, covering one billion calendar days of treatment.

If Suzetrigine can grab even a slice of that pie, we're looking at another potential blockbuster that could make AbbVie’s (ABBV) top-selling Humira look like small potatoes.

But Vertex isn't content with just dominating CF and pain management. They're also pushing into new territories.

In April, they dropped $4.9 billion to snap up Alpine Immune Sciences, grabbing the rights to Povetacicept. This mid-stage drug targets IgA Nephropathy, which affects about 130,000 people in the U.S. That's a smart flanking maneuver if I ever saw one.

On top of all these, though, I think the biotech’s real showstopper might be Casgevy, Vertex's gene therapy for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

Developed with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), this cutting-edge treatment uses CRISPR gene-editing technology.

It's like having a sniper rifle when everyone else is still using muskets. Vertex sees this as a potential multi-billion dollar opportunity, and I'm inclined to agree. It could be bigger than the Pentagon's budget – well, almost.

Look, I get it. Vertex doesn't pay a dividend, which might turn off some of you income-focused folks faster than a week-old MRE. But for those willing to bet on growth, this biotech juggernaut still has plenty of fight left in it.

With a killer pipeline spanning CF, pain management, kidney health, and even type 1 diabetes, Vertex is primed to keep growing like kudzu in August.

Their solid portfolio and promising drug candidates make it a compelling investment, and those revenue and EPS projections? They're music to my ears – sweeter than Taps at the end of a long day.

Here's my take: With a fair stock price target of $566, Vertex still has significant upside potential. I think it’s a biotech powerhouse that deserves a spot on your watchlist – right next to your old service medals.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-27 12:00:362024-06-27 13:07:19The Biotech Leatherneck That Won't Stand Down
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 27, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 27, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(A BUY WRITE PRIMER)

(AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-27 09:04:422024-06-27 10:51:23June 27, 2024
Douglas Davenport

SMART MONEY, SMARTER BETS

Mad Hedge AI

(NVDA), (AMZN), (AAPL), (AVGO), (CRM)

Back in the late 1970s, I found myself a stone's throw from the buzzing epicenter of Asia's tech boom – Tokyo. The air crackled with the electric charge of innovation as Japan rose to dominate the world of semiconductors. 

Traders and tycoons, adrenaline junkies all, made moves that would lay the digital world's foundation. It was a frenzy, reminiscent of the Gold Rush, and there I was, scribbling notes faster than a trader on his third espresso. 

Fast forward to today, and while the tech has evolved, that adrenaline rush? It's the same, only now it's fueled by artificial intelligence (AI). 

A few weeks ago, while most of us were distracted by Jerome Powell's eyebrow twitches or dissecting the latest earnings reports, something far more intriguing slipped under the radar. On May 15, the big boys of Wall Street - those with at least $100 million to play with - filed their Form 13Fs. 

Now, for those of you who haven't spent decades in the trenches of high finance, these forms are like a treasure map of what the smartest money in the game is doing.

And let me tell you, the latest 13Fs read like a who's who of the AI gold rush. It's enough to make the Klondike prospectors look like amateurs.

Of course, it’s reasonable for anyone to think that Nvidia (NVDA), the darling of the AI world, would be the belle of this ball. After all, their stock has shot up faster than a MiG-25 - and believe me, I know how fast those things can climb. 

We're talking about an 802% increase since the start of 2023. That's $2.9 trillion in market value, more than the GDP of most countries I've reported from.

But here's where it gets interesting. Some of the sharpest knives in the drawer - I'm talking about Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management, who has a net worth of around $6 billion, and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors, with an estimated net worth of $35 billion - have been dumping Nvidia shares like they're going out of style. 

In fact, Laffont offloaded nearly 3 million shares, while Griffin shed about 2.5 million. Why, you ask? Well, let me pour you a glass of metaphorical vintage wine and explain.

First off, history isn't exactly on Nvidia's side. In my time, I've seen more “next big things” come and go than I've had hot dinners. Remember the dot-com bubble? The 3D printing craze? 

Every single game-changing innovation in the last 30 years has had its bubble burst. AI might be different, but I wouldn't bet my antique aircraft collection on it.

Secondly, Nvidia's success has painted a target on its back. Everyone and their dog is trying to muscle in on the AI chip market. It's like watching a feeding frenzy in the financial waters, and Nvidia might just find itself outswum.

But here's where it gets really intriguing. 

While these billionaires were selling Nvidia, they were also busy buying up other AI plays. It's like watching a high-stakes game of financial Jenga, and believe me, I've seen a few of those in my time.

Laffont, for instance, was gobbling up shares of Broadcom (AVGO) and Salesforce (CRM) faster than a Deng Xiaoping economic reform. 

Broadcom's Jericho 3 chip is the talk of the AI town, capable of connecting 32,000 GPUs. That's more connections than I made during my entire time as a foreign correspondent, and let me tell you, I knew everyone from Ferdinand Marcos to Margaret Thatcher.

Salesforce, on the other hand, is using AI to supercharge its CRM software. It's like giving steroids to an already dominant athlete - and with 21.7% of the global cloud-based CRM market, Salesforce is certainly flexing its muscles.

Meanwhile, Griffin, whose hedge fund has made more money than some countries I've reported from, is betting big on Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL). 

Besides, Amazon's not just selling books anymore. They're now knee-deep in AI, from their own chips to their AWS services. 

And Apple? Well, they've just unveiled "Apple Intelligence." It's like Siri multiplied by a hundred, and it's coming to an iPhone near you.

Now, I'm not saying you should follow these billionaires blindly. 

After all, I've climbed to 20,000 feet on Everest, and let me tell you, the view isn't always clear up there. But keeping an eye on what the big money is doing? That's just good business.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot-2024-06-26-150327.jpg 600 648 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2024-06-26 15:11:072024-06-26 15:11:07SMART MONEY, SMARTER BETS
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 26, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 26, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(FISKER BLOWS UP)
(FSRNQ), (NVDA), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-26 14:04:112024-06-26 14:17:37June 26, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Fisker Blows Up

Tech Letter

Fisker (FSRNQ) is bankrupt and I can tell you that I am not surprised.

The sushi has hit the fan.

The non-Nvidia (NVDA) tech firms minus big tech are really having a tough time staying liquid and dare I might say profitable.

Many already knew Fisker was in trouble.

They also have a terrible car which doesn’t help its case. 

If Tesla (TSLA) is having a hard time selling EVs then imagine what it is like for Fisker to sell an utter clunker.

FSRNQ’s car has been coined as the worst EV on the market by many prominent bloggers.

Fisker management told us they might run out of cash before 2024 is over.

Definitely not shareholders like to hear in an industry that is looking more like a race to zero than an industry able to price itself at a premium.

I believe many car executives are ruing the fact of the multi-decade knowledge transfer to the Chinese about building quality cars.

How do we take tabs of the situation at Fisker?

It only sells one car called the Fisker Ocean electric SUV. Last year, around 10,000 of the SUVs were made but only about half had been delivered to customers.

In a recent interview with Automotive News, the company’s founder and CEO Henrik Fisker admitted that the Ocean had quality problems. He blamed the issues on software from different suppliers that worked poorly together and said they were being addressed through updates.

Worldwide sales of plug-in vehicles could rise 21% this year, which represents a smaller rise than the 35% increase in 2023.

The company listed between $500 million and $1 billion of assets, and between $100 million and $500 million of liabilities, in its petition filed in Delaware. The filing protects Fisker from creditors while it works out a plan to repay them.

While Fisker Ocean sport utility vehicle production started on schedule in November 2022, the first SUVs lacked basic features including cruise control. The California-based company told customers it would deploy capabilities it had promised them the following year, via over-the-air software updates.

Fisker produced 10,193 Oceans last year but delivered only 4,929 vehicles to customers.

Fisker follows a handful of other EV startups into bankruptcy, including Charge Enterprises, the installer of EV charging stations that filed for Chapter 11 protection in March. Other EV makers that have filed for bankruptcy include Lordstown Motors, Proterra and Electric Last Mile Solutions.

Anecdotally, EVs didn’t calculate properly how difficult it is to convince the 2nd wave of buyers.

For example, everyone in my family that will buy an EV has already bought one.

One Gen Z relative of mine swears he will never buy an EV because it doesn’t amount to more than a “toy car” with a battery that needs to be plugged in. He prefers a Ferrari or a Maserati where he can hear the engine roar. There is a high chance he will never be persuaded to buy an EV or if he does get persuaded, it will take 10-20 years for him to come around.

That is what EV makers face in bringing forward the next buyer.

Therefore, look at the bottom of the barrel EV production, they are all facing Chapter 11 and this is just the beginning.

Fisker’s share price peaked at around $30 per share in 2021 and now shares trade at $.02 per share. I would not buy the stock even at these levels.

Tesla’s halving of its share price also most likely means it is fairly priced for right now as we wait for a catalyst to send us either up or down.

The walls are closing in on the EV industry in the short-term and I advise readers to head to higher ground, let’s say the chip industry for a better crack at tech stocks.

 

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 26, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.” – Said American Investor Warren Buffett

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/warren-buffet.png 932 738 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-26 14:00:102024-06-26 14:22:52June 26, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 26, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(AI TECHNOLOGY MAY SOON BE ABLE TO DETECT FIRES FROM SPACE)

June 26, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

 

In Australia, early detection of wildfires will become increasingly important.  In the summer of 2019-2020, more than 12 million hectares, an area the size of England, was impacted.

The University of Sydney carried out an analysis for WWF-Australia, which showed that “about 143 million mammals, 2.46 billion reptiles, 181 million birds, and 51 million frogs occupied areas hit by the fires.”  More than 60,000 koalas were killed.

Scientists from the University of South Australia believe they have found a way to use satellites and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to greatly increase the rates at which wildfires are detected.

Stationary satellites located up to 34,000km above the surface of the Earth, or lower, and orbiting satellites can both detect wildfires, but they have several limitations.  The key innovation, say scientists, is to put sophisticated AI-enabled software into tiny cube satellites (CubeSats) that weigh just a few kilograms.

Geospatial scientist, Dr Stefan Peters, says that the idea has been modelled, and is soon to go live.

The Kanyini CubeSat (a collaboration between the Government of South Australia, a consortium of universities, and various industry partners) is scheduled to be launched on July 2, and Peters confirms that the onboard fire smoke detection solution will become operational at the end of this year or beginning of next.

Peters believes it should be able to reliably detect wildfires in less than one hour, whereas current satellites can take between 6-8 hours.  Using a past fire event in the Coorong of South Australia, the AI approach took less than 14 minutes to detect smoke and relay the data.

Reducing the impact of wildfires has multiple benefits.  Obviously, it protects millions of wild animals, as well as human lives and property, but it also stems from the huge release of carbon emissions during these catastrophic events.

WWF- Australia published a report following the 2019-20 wildfire season which said that somewhere between 400-700 million tonnes of carbon dioxide had been released.  Let’s put that in perspective now.  Australia’s annual emissions during the 12 months to June 2019 were about 500 million tonnes.

The cost of replacing these carbon stocks was estimated at somewhere between AU$1-2.8 billion.

Investing in early detection will surely pay dividends.

 

 

What is/are… CFDs?

Contracts for Difference, or CFDs, are a type of financial derivative used in CFD trading. The derivative works as an agreement to exchange the difference in price of an asset from when the position is opened to when it is closed.   They can be used to speculate on the future price of a variety of financial markets like shares, forex, commodities, indices, or bonds.

When trading CFDs, the underlying asset is never exchanged between the buyer and the seller, and neither party needs to physically own it to begin with – CFDs are a purely speculative product.  And because there is no need to own the underlying asset, CFDs can be used to take advantage of both rising and falling markets – known as ‘going long’ and ‘going short’.

CFDs are traded on leverage, which means that traders can benefit from magnified profits, but could also incur magnified losses.

I have used CFDs to trade Gold and Silver, QQQs, and single stocks.

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-26 12:00:152024-06-26 11:51:31June 26, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 26, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 26, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-26 09:04:272024-06-26 10:15:31June 26, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

June 25, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 25, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(MORE THAN MEETS THE (WALL STREET) EYE)

(MRK), (PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-06-25 12:02:122024-06-25 12:29:46June 25, 2024
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