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MHFTR

Hanging Out With the Woz

Diary, Newsletter

I first spoke to Steve Wozniak via HAM radio when I was 12 years old and he was the 14-year-old president of the Homestead High School Radio Club in Cupertino, California.

With seven children, my dad was pretty stingy with allowance money. But when it came to electronic parts, I had an unlimited budget, as that is where he saw the future.

So, while other kids collected baseball cards, I stocked up on tubes, resistors, capacitors, and rheostats. This was back when you could buy WWII surplus parts from Radio Shack for pennies a pound.

Then the transistor came out, and building projects, like simple computers programmed with basic '1's' and '0's' suddenly became possible.

By junior high school, I had gained my radio license, learning Morse code at the required five words per minute, and a path opened that eventually led me to Woz.

Whenever I had a design problem, Woz always had a solution. He seemed to know everything about electronics.

I planned to attend De Anza College in the San Francisco Bay Area to collaborate with Woz, but then the State of California dropped a big fat scholarship to the University of Southern California in my lap, and we parted ways.

That's government for you. The state thought I was smarter than Woz. Ha!

The last thing he taught me was this really cool way to make long distance phone calls for free with something called a 'blue box.'

I later heard that Woz went to work for some kind of fruit company designing computers, which sounded stupid to me at the time, but Woz was always a guy who marched to a different drummer.

A decade later, I was an ambitious young vice president at Morgan Stanley, and ran into Woz again while escorting Steve Jobs around to big institutional investors hawking an Apple (AAPL) shares back when they were $1 on a split adjusted basis.

By then he had gained a lot of weight. He fascinated me with stories about how he had gone from scrounging around for a bootleg $12 chip, to making $100 million on the Apple IPO in just three years.

The phrase "only in America" has to come to mind.

We bought our planes at the same time, me a Cessna 340 twin, and he a Beechcraft Bonanza. When I heard he totaled his in a crash in Santa Cruz a few years later, I sent flowers to his hospital room, even though he was in a coma and wasn't expected to live.

In later years we moved into the same philanthropic circles at the San Francisco Ballet, the Computer Museum, and local art museums. To me, Woz always stood out at the social events as the only one who was not an inveterate social climber, the kind of which I tired of long ago.

That was vintage Woz. He just didn't care.

When I finally stumbled across his autobiography, iWoz, I grabbed it and devoured the pages in a couple of days.

The tome filled in the holes about what I knew about the man: the wives, the rock concerts, his universal remote-control idea, and the early days at Apple.

You also learn a lot about electronics and basic computer hardware and software design.

While there are a lot of fifth-grade science teachers who wish they were billionaires, there is only one billionaire who aspired to teach fifth-grade science. That is what Woz did for 10 years after he left Apple.

Despite the billions, Steve is still an all-right guy. With Apple stock having touched $218 last week he must be worth an unimaginable amount. He won’t tell anyone how much he still owns, and he doesn’t even have his own rocket program. To buy the book of his engaging and entertaining story, please click here at  click here.

Steve Wozniak

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Steve-Wozniak.jpg 301 382 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-22 01:06:322018-08-22 04:41:51Hanging Out With the Woz
MHFTR

August 20, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 20, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or
IS THE TRADE WAR ON OR OFF?),
(AAPL), (UUP), (EEM), (NFLX), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (SOYB),
(SOME SAGE ADVICE ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION)

 

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MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Is the Trade War on or Off?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Is the trade war on or off? Trillions of dollars in cash flow and investment depend on the answer to the question.

Traders and investors can be forgiven for being confused. It was only a week ago that a doubling of duties on Turkish imports were threatened because of an American pastor locked up there two years ago, triggering a stock meltdown.

Then, on Wednesday night presidential economic advisor Larry Kudlow hinted that he would meet with a Chinese trade delegation, prompting a 400-point Dow melt-up. Please note that except for Apple (AAPL), technology stocks did not participate in the rally one iota.

In the meantime, Apple continued its relentless march to my $220 target for $2018, so you might think about taking some money off the table. The market capitalization now stands at a staggering $1.05 trillion, the largest in the world.

It vindicates my call that at any time the administration could suddenly declare victory in the trade war, prompting a major stock market rally, regardless of the outcome.

So what happens next. Expect the trade talks to fail, or not happen at all. Market meltdowns will be followed by melt-up, then meltdowns again. Certainly, that's what the soybean (SOYB) market believes, that new canary in the coal mine for our global trade wars. It barely moved this week.

Hey, if trading were easy it would pay the federal minimum wage rate of $7.25 an hour, so quit your complaining!

As if trade wars were the only thing to worry about these days.

There is a mass protest underway at Alphabet (GOOGL) over the company's proposal to re-enter the China market. No one wants to assist the Middle Kingdom's harsh censorship regime, and some 1,000 employees have already signed a petition to this effect.

Emerging markets (EEM) continue to get pounded by trade wars and a strong U.S. dollar (UUP), which has the effect of increasing their companies' local currency debt.

Elon Musk continues his slow motion public nervous breakdown, cutting Tesla's stock at the knees down to $305. I hope you all took my advice last week to unload the stock at $380.

Netflix (NFLX) shares are undergoing a serious pullback now that it is in between upgrade launches, and the trade wars and strong dollar eat into international subscriber growth, about 80% of the total. Don't forget to buy this dip.

With the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index stuck dead on 50, I am not inclined to reach for trades here. A reading of 50 gives you the perfect "do nothing" indicator.

As is always the case when I return from vacation my first few trades are a rude awakening. August is now showing a modest return of 0.23%. My 2018 year-to-date performance has clawed its way up to 25.03% and my nine-year return appreciated to 302.61%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 34.91%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 32.24%.

This coming week housing statistics will give the most important insights on the state of the economy.

On Monday, August 20, there will be nothing of note to report. It will just be another boring summer day.

On Tuesday, August 21, same thing.

On Wednesday, August 22 at 9:15 AM, we learn July Existing Home Sales. Will the rot continue? Weekly EIA Petroleum Inventory Statistics are out at 10:30 AM. The Fed Minutes from the meeting six weeks ago are out at 2:00 PM EST.

Thursday, August 23 leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 12,000 last week to 212,000. Also announced are July New Home Sales. The two-day Jackson Hole Symposium of central bankers starts in the morning.

On Friday, August 24 at 8:30 AM EST, we get July Durable Goods. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me, it is back to school week for me, so I will be making the rounds with the new teachers at two schools. I have to confess that at my age I have trouble distinguishing between the students and the teachers.

Finally, a sad farewell to Aretha Franklin, the Queen of soul, who provided me with a half century of listening pleasure. When I was young, I couldn't afford to go see her, and when I got old I didn't have the time. Isn't life lived backward?

Good luck and good trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN!

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MHFTR

August 15, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BONDS CAN'T GO DOWN),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX), (TUR), (TSLA),
(HOW TO MAKE MORE MONEY THAN I DO),
(AMZN), (LRCX), (ABX), (AAPL), (TSLA), (NVDA)

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MHFTR

August 15, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW TO PLAY THE NEW FORTNITE GAMING FAD),
(ATVI), (EA), (AMD), (NVDA), (MSFT), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (TWTR), (SNAP), (FB), (SPOT), (GAMR)

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MHFTR

How to Make More Money Than I Do

Diary, Newsletter

By now, most of you have figured out that I love calling readers every day and milking them for ideas on how to improve my service.

Often, they think I am an imposter, a telephone salesman, a machine, or an algorithm. It's only after listening for a few seconds that they recognize my voice from the biweekly strategy webinars and realize that it's the real me.

I don't do this to get renewals, because everyone renews anyway. Where else do you get a 62% annual return with no serious drawdowns?

No, I do it because the information I pick up from subscribers is golden. Some of my best Trade Alerts are inspired by reader questions.

One of my favorite Einstein quotes is that "There are no stupid questions, only stupid answers."

In fact, I have discovered that a lot of subscribers are making much more money from my service than I do.

I'll tell you how they do it.

First, let me remind readers that every Trade Alert I send out includes recommendation for a call or put option spread, a single stock, or an ETF.

The trading performance charts that we published are based on the options spread positions only.

WARNING: What worked swimmingly over the past 10 years is no guarantee that it will work next year, but I thought you'd like to know anyway.

1) Raise the Strike Prices

Move the strike prices up by a dollar. So instead of buying the Barrick Gold (ABX) September $15-$16 deep in-the-money vertical bull call spread, you pick up the $16-$17 call spread instead.

Generally, you make a profit that is 50% greater on this higher spread than with the original recommendation. But you are also taking on higher risk.

When 90% or more of our Trade Alerts are successful this has been a pretty good bet to make.

2) Buy the Call Options Only

Instead of buying the call spread, you buy the call option only in half the size.

When it works, your upside is unlimited. When it doesn't, you just write off the total value of your investment.

This is a great approach when the stocks I recommend take off like a rocket and double or more, as have Apple (AAPL), Amazon, (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), and NVIDIA (NVDA).

Option spread buyers leave a lot of money on the table with this scenario, but get lower performance volatility.

I have observed that many of my Australia readers pursue this approach, as they are fighting a 14-hour time zone disadvantage with the New York Stock Exchange. Not many civilians want to trade at 4:00 AM no matter how much it pays.

The payoff is that they earn about double what I do trading the same stocks.

3) Buy a 2X or 3X Leveraged ETF

This is moving out even further off the risk curve.

Almost every one of the 101 S&P 500 sectors have listed for them 2X and 3X bull and bear ETF's. In theory, the best-case scenario for one of these funds is that they will rise three times as fast as the underlying basket.

In theory, I said.

By the time you take out management fees, tracking error, and execution costs, and wide spreads, you are more likely to get 2.5 times the basket appreciation, if not 2X.

I normally steer investors away from 3X funds. But 401k traders, who are not allowed to deal in stock options, swear by them.

4) Trade Futures

This is a favorite of foreign exchange, precious metals, and bond traders. A futures contract can deliver up to 100 times the performance of the underlying currency, metal, or Treasury bond.

Get a good entry point, run a tight stop loss, and the potential gains can be astronomical.

Every year we get a couple of followers who earn 1,000% profits using our market timing for entry and exit point, and they always do it through the futures markets. Yes, that is a 10X return.

This is also a much higher risk, but higher return strategy. Your broker will present greater disclosure requirements and need a higher clearance level.

But potentially retiring in a year is ample bait for many professionals to go through with this.

5) Read the Research

I know a lot of you only buy this service only for our industry beating Trade Alert service.

But my decade-long experience in watching readers succeed, or fail, in their executions is that the more research they read, the more money they make.

Don't try to skim though with a minimal effort.

It's really very simple. The more work you put into this, the more profit you take out.

Understanding fully what is happening in the markets, indeed the entire global economy, will give you the confidence you need to take on bigger positions and make A LOT more money.

There is no free lunch. There is no Holy Grail.

Having said all that, good luck and good trading.

 

 

Looks Like I Got Another One

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MHFTR

How to Play the New Fortnite Gaming Fad

Tech Letter

Each generation grows up in its own unique environment.

Childhood experiences differ more and more as the world rapidly changes because of hyper-accelerating technology.

Millennials are usually defined as children born between 1981 to 1996.

They were the last generation to grow up outside breathing crisp, fresh air and meandering around the neighborhood with their friends looking for excitement.

Generation Z is the first generation in America generally raised indoors because of their overwhelming preference and broad-based addiction to technology.

Social media stocks have been a huge winner from this new paradigm shift in the behavior of young adults.

Instead of running around the block in packs, children are laser focused on these platforms communicating with the entire world and propping up their social lives.

Children meet a lot less than they used to and convening on a social media platform of choice has become the new normal.

Platforms such as Twitter (TWTR), Instagram and Snapchat (SNAP) have convincingly won over these new eyeballs even so much so that the new "going out" is congregating on Snapchat with a group of friends.

Facebook (FB) is now considered a legacy social media platform full of millennials and the older crowd.

Generation Z do not fancy drugs or drinking like the youth before them, rather, their panacea is video games and a lot of them.

These new societal trends will hugely affect your portfolio going forward.

A battle royal game is a video game category mixing the survival, exploration and scavenging elements together with last-man-standing gameplay.

These types of games predominantly contain 100 players sharing the same experience on a broadband connection.

This genre has been all the rage with PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds (PUBG) piling up 400 million gamers across the globe selling 50 million copies of the game.

Of the 400 million gamers, 88% access the game via mobile devices highlighting the vigorous shift to mobile for younger generations.

PUBG made more than $700 million in sales in 2017.

The rise of the billion-dollar video games is alive and well.

In fact, Activision Blizzard (ATVI) stakes claim to eight gaming franchises commanding more than $1 billion in annual revenue with titles such as Overwatch, Candy Crush, and Call of Duty.

The popularity of video games will drive GPU manufacturers Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) to new heights because gamers require high-quality GPUs to effectively game.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang even spouted that "the success of Fortnite and PUBG are just beyond comprehension" boosting GPU sales and capturing the imagination of global youth.

Fortnite, a "Hunger Games" style battle royal video game mirroring PUBG, has taken the world by storm in 2018.

This cultural juggernaut surpassed the 125 million gamer mark in just one year.

In February 2018, Epic Games, the maker of Fortnite, earned $126 million in one month, and it was the first time it passed PUBG in monthly sales.

In April 2018, it followed up monster February numbers by pulling in $296 million.

The growth trajectory is parabolic. Hold onto your hats.

Fortnite sparkles in the sunlight because its free-to-play model does not exclude anyone and is available on all devices.

At first, Fortnite was available for iOS customers and Samsung Android holders because it inked an exclusive deal with Samsung.

This week is the first week Epic Games is rolling out Fortnite to non-Samsung Android users with an interesting caveat.

The Android version of Fortnite bypasses Google Play (Google's app store on Android) preferring to sell the game direct for download from its official website.

This highlights that content is truly king.

Epic Games is betting the surge in popularity for its juggernaut game will sell itself.

This decision will cost Alphabet (GOOGL) $70 million per year in commission.

Apple makes it mandatory that any app downloaded to its devices must be downloaded from Apple's app store.

However, Android doesn't have the same requirements as its system is more functional, open, and a developer's dream.

Simply put, there are ways to download the game on Android without ever touching Google Play.

Going forward this could have a similar effect Spotify (SPOT) had on Wall Street on its IPO.

The middlemen or broker app could get bypassed in favor of direct sales.

Apple pockets commission on 30% of all in-app spending raking in around $60 million from Fortnite.

In-game add-on revenue is how Fortnite makes money from this free-to-play game.

The bulk of spending comes in the form of costumes better known as skins, where players pay to dress up their character in various garments selected for purchase.

The other revenue stream is a season subscription on sale for $10.

The tech sector has been migrating to subscription-based offerings and video games are no different.

This could play havoc with Alphabet's Google Play and Apple's app store down the line if prominent content producers choose to bypass their stores to sell directly.

The lack of video game exposure to the FANG group is mind-boggling. It seems they have their finger on the pulse of every other major trend in technology but have missed out on this one.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the closest FANG-like stock deep inside the video game ecosphere by way of its famous console Xbox.

In fact, Microsoft earns more than $10 billion per year from its gaming segment surpassing Nintendo at $9.7 billion per year.

This doesn't eclipse Sony's gaming revenue, which is $17 billion per year, but the 36% YOY growth in Xbox-related revenue signals its intent in the gaming industry that plays second fiddle to its cloud and software businesses.

Gaming is just a side business for Microsoft right now.

Ironically, Tencent has a 40% stake in Epic Games and is patiently waiting for government approval to sell Fortnite in China, which could be painstakingly arduous.

If Tencent gets the green light, Fortnite could develop into a monster business in 2018, and this is just the beginning.

Regrettably, Tencent has been mired in regulatory issues with the communist government reluctant to approve selling in-game products, which usually make up the bulk of revenue.

Recent blockbuster hit "Monster Hunter: World" was blocked by censors after debuting to great fanfare on August 8, 2018.

This title was expected to be one of the most popular video games of 2018.

Chinese state censors are on a short-term crusade to block the video game industry from receiving critical licenses and is the main reason for Tencent shares' headwinds.

Tencent shares peaked in January and are down almost 15% in 2018 because of uncertain gaming revenues.

Investors need to wake up and understand the gaming industry is about to mushroom because of demographics and the migration away from outdoor activity.

Following generations will have an even stronger bias toward technology-based indoor entertainment.

We are entering into the unknown of $4 billion per year video game businesses based on just one title and not one company.

Fortnite made PUBG's $700 million in revenue last year look paltry.

Gamers will soon see the rise of a $5 billion game franchise in 2019 and the sky is the limit.

This industry has growth, growth, and more growth and these single titles could surpass revenue of large semiconductor or hardware companies.

Don't underestimate the power of your child gaming away in your basement, he or she is part and parcel of a wicked tech growth driver about which not many people know.

Unfortunately, Epic Games is not a public company and shares cannot be purchased, but the success of Fortnite means that investors must pay heed to these new developments.

I am highly bullish on the video game sector and a big proponent of Activision (ATVI). A secondary name would be EA Sports (EA), which curates the Madden and FIFA franchises.

ATVI has felt the Fortnite effect in its share price selling off 11% because of investors' nervousness of Fortnite siphoning off ATVI gamers.

This short-term drop is a nice entry point into a solid video gaming company with various successful franchises that have withstood the test of time.

The 200-day moving average has provided ironclad support on the way up, and the Fortnite phenomenon won't last forever.

I would avoid the video game ETF ticker symbol GAMR because it includes one of my bona fide shorts - GameStop (GME).

It's mainly comprised of American, Japanese, and a Korean name but it would be sensible to focus on the companies with the highest quality comprehensive content.

The ETFs recent drop is also due to the strength of Fortnite.

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Companies in every industry need to assume that a software revolution is coming." - said Silicon Valley venture capitalist Marc Andreessen.

 

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MHFTR

August 13, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(GOOGLE'S NEW CHINESE PLAY),
(GOOGL), (BABA), (AAPL), (JD), (BIDU), (MU), (INTC)

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MHFTR

Google's New Chinese Play

Tech Letter

As a bolt from the blue, Google search is headed back to China.

The project coined Dragonfly commenced in early 2017 as Google sought a way back into the lucrative Chinese market to sell its products.

The retracement to China then later sped up after Google CEO Sundar Pichai secretly met with a top Chinese official in December 2017.

The censored Google search application could be launched in the next six months to a year upon approval from the communist party.

Why China?

There are three times more smartphones in China than in the U.S. This market represents celestial scale unfounded in any other country.

The Chinese Internet population has roughly 772 million people with Internet penetration levels at about 55%.

The U.S. has maxed out its penetration level at 89% and there is little room to snatch up a new group of mass users. This is not the case in China, which has ample amounts of room to run.

In addition, Google hopes to roll out a news aggregation app mirrored on Chinese newsfeed app Jinri Toutiao that implements personalized artificial intelligence to cater toward each unique user's needs.

As of December 2017, users spent an average of 73 minutes per day on this app.

Jinri Toutiao has 120 million daily active users and has been given a valuation of around $35 billion.

The unbridled potential for American large cap tech companies in China is unrivaled.

But navigating around China's murky business environment under the comprehensive controls of the Great Firewall has proved cumbersome highlighting the executional prowess of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone business in China.

Why did Google leave in the first place?

The issue of censorship was the catalyst leading Google search to the exits.

Google was stunned by the exploits of the Chinese communist government, which maneuvered around Google's system targeting human rights activists among other things.

Operating abroad, companies do not always have complete control over the systems they build and the business processes that revolve around it.

Beijing continued to press Google to filter its search results in 2010, and anything but compliance spelled doom for Google's future in China.

Restricting speech is commonplace for many undeveloped countries with brutal regimes.

The U.S. has one of the most lenient free press laws in the world underlying the backbreaking hassle of operating in a country that actively and aggressively suppresses free speech deemed negative to the people in powerful positions.

After Google started rerouting mainland Chinese Google search to its filter-less Hong Kong servers, Google search was unceremoniously shut down within months.

A comeback is in the works at a time when China and America are at each other's throats in a tit-for-tat trade war, complicating the move to reinsert itself back in the Middle Kingdom.

Let's make no bones about it, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy for Alphabet, which seeks to add yet another growth driver to its profit-making machine.

Out of the FANG group, only Apple has emerged to unlock the Chinese market with outstanding success.

All other American tech competition was rooted out. Only chip names such as Micron (MU) and Intel (INTC) latched onto the Chinese market largely because of the Chinese demand for chips.

This unfortunate development opened the path for the BATs to dominate in China, which is comprised of Baidu (BIDU), Alibaba (BABA), and Tencent.

Rewind back to 2010, Google search was directly competing against China's Baidu headed up by founder Robin Li.

Google had just 14% market share in search and was trailing far behind Baidu, which had 79% of market share.

In 2010, the difference in the quality of the search algorithms between the two couldn't have been larger.

When comparing these search engines, 85% of Google searches would populate vastly different results compared to Baidu's search platform.

Upon further inspection, Google search was deemed far more accurate than the market share leader Baidu, and that has not changed.

China's inferior technological abilities are well noted. The shortage of talent has forced them to institute forced technological transfers from western companies working in China, outright theft of technical know-how by state sponsored hackers, and the use of government loans to finance M&A activity in technological advanced countries.

In fact, Google leaving China robbed the Chinese tech sector of legitimate competition crushing the innovation trajectory or any remnants of one.

This led to the BATs running riot making money hand over fist but still trailing American tech by a country mile in terms of technical ability and innovation.

A lack of competition breeds complacency.

The reintegration of Google search into China will bring a whole new level of top-class ad technology into China.

This could be the beginning of a monumental ramp up in digital ad spend in China, which trails far behind North America and Europe in average revenue per person.

Discretionary spending is robust in China and advertisers want a piece of the action.

As much as this could be an opportunity for Alphabet to invigorate its cash-making enterprise, it is also a chance to enhance the overall Chinese tech sector.

Upon hearing Google will return, Baidu's Li laid down the gauntlet retorting that Baidu will "win one more time."

Having the communist party on your side as a tag team partner goes a long way in China and has been the main reason of foreign firms fleeing in droves in the past.

Alphabet won't have the same help.

Yet, it could learn a great deal from heading into this sensitive opportunity that could also lay the groundwork to operate in other countries with repressive governments bent on destroying freedom of speech.

Naturally, Alphabet employees weren't impressed with this new direction.

Silicon Valley is centered on left-wing social mores and adjusting its model to accommodate a totalitarian regime does not sit well with many workers.

Google saw a mini employee revolt because of Project Maven, a national defense program marrying artificial intelligence with combat operations in the United States.

Allowing Google's technology to possibly fall into the hands of Beijing would be unforgivable and a national embarrassment.

This idea is definitely not part of the low hanging fruit initiative.

This fruit is 20 feet high dangling from a distant branch.

If Alphabet pulls this off, it could add another surging driver to its portfolio, which prints money because of its digital ad segment.

It could potentially increase revenue by 30%.

Alphabet's successfully bringing in its Google search engine back from the cold, albeit censored search engine, could lay the groundwork for other American tech companies to enter the Chinese market, which would crush Alibaba, JD.com (JD), Tencent, and Baidu's share price.

Baidu dropped more than 6% upon this announcement.

The tech expertise level would naturally rise in China if American tech companies were permitted to set up shop, enhancing the total Chinese tech sector.

It would also apply pressure on China's communist government to open up its industries and do away with the protectionist stance that has been a bedrock policy fueling China's unbelievable rise from rags to riches.

China's top-level politicians must understand inward policies of this ilk do not mesh with the status of a country that is the world's second biggest economy. And it was only a matter of time before unyielding backlash ensued.

From the political side, it could possibly offer additional ammunition to the American administration if China wholeheartedly rejects Google's foray into the mainland, even if it complies with every miniscule, arcane rule Beijing throws at them.

It will prove that China is not willing to compromise or make a deal with the deal-obsessed American administration. And it will signal a dead-end road for any large cap American tech company with China aspirations.

The U.S. administration would use this as an "I told you so" moment, highlighting a history of perpetual unfair trade practices. Hopefully, it never gets to this point.

As it stands, many American large cap tech companies won't touch the Chinese market with a 10-foot pole, but the breathless scale is hard to pass up for others.

If Google is stonewalled, expect an even tougher response from the American administration hell-bent on preventing technological transfers to China.

Currently, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is attempting to recreate the rules to counteract the China threat.

The trade war is ultimately about global supremacy and being able to harness the biggest tool to achieve world hegemony, which is high caliber technology.

The treatment of Chinese and American tech companies by each other's government will give investors deep insight into how this all plays out.

This is Alphabet's last gasp chance at entering China. If it evolves into a spectacular failure, it always has its digital ad business to fall back on and the upcoming mass rollout of Waymo, its autonomous self-driving taxi business.

So why not take a stab at it?

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"If Google re-enters the market, it gives us the opportunity to player kill with real swords and spears and win one more time," - said founder and CEO of Baidu Robin Li.

 

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August 10, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

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