Global Market Comments
July 30, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or POURING GASOLINE ON THE FIRE),
(MSFT), (AMZN), (FB), (NFLX), (TWTR),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Tag Archive for: (AMZN)
Pour gasoline on a fire and you get a reaction. It's a simple matter of physics. That is the natural result of hitting the economy with tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and low interest rates all at once. But at what price?
Of course, the headline number of the week was the first read on Q2 GDP growth, which came in at a strong 4.1%, the hottest number in four years. What was one of the biggest contributors? Soybean sales, as buyers rushed to beat the imposition of retaliatory Chinese tariffs. Consumers also hit the stores hard, spending their rising by a robust 4%.
The big question now is how much of this is sustainable? The answer is probably not much, which leaves investors with the queasy feeling that by coming in now they risk buying the absolute peak in the stock market. By temporarily pulling forward so much growth you may be creating a growth hole in Q3. So better mark your calendars now.
Q2 almost always delivers a string rebound from a usually weak Q1. The tax cuts delivered a one-time-only boost. But the investment spending that the administration had hoped for hasn't materialized, with a disproportionate portion of corporate profits going into share buybacks instead. Inventories are rising sharply, which is always bad.
We'll know for sure in a year when a recession will most likely begin. And remember, this extra growth is at the expense of an increase in the national debt by 10%, from $21 trillion to $23 trillion. And that is definitely NOT sustainable, but everyone in the world seems to have forgotten that, except me!
Interestingly, the report placed the current inflation rate dead on the Fed's target at 2.0%. That is a guarantee that any continued economic strength will be offset by rising interest rates.
The Facebook (FB) earnings highlighted the poor risk/reward of buying tech stocks at these elevated levels. Facebook shares plunged by 20% on their earnings announcement, creating the largest single day loss of market capitalization in history, some $120 billion. It was obviously a "kitchen sink" quarter.
If you get an earnings beat, as you did with Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), you get a 2-, 3-, 4% pop in the stock price. If you disappoint, as did Facebook, Netflix (NFLX), and Twitter (TWTR), they crater by 10% to 20%. It is all typical end-of-cycle price action.
On the other hand, Amazon knocked the cover off the ball with its earnings, which came in at double analyst forecasts. The company is about to reach my end 2018 target of $2,000 a share. That is double the February lows.
Amazon Web Services delivered a stunning $6.1 billion quarterly revenue, up 49% YOY. Advertising is now becoming a major factor, as the company challenges Google (GOOG) and Facebook. For more on the longer-term prospects of Jeff Bezos's incredible company please see the special report that I published yesterday.
Bonds (TLT) continued their moribund price action, barely eking out a gain in yields to 2.97%. Either they are already discounting the next recession, are flooded with cash from a global QE hangover, or are getting a nice flight to safety bid brought on by multiple trade wars. Most likely it is all three.
Better to opine from the sidelines than to attempt to trade in the least volatile bond market conditions in 30 years.
As for gold, it continues to be a trader's worst nightmare as it plums new 2018 lows. Clearly, globally rising interest rates are not of what bull markets in gold are made. It doesn't help that Venezuela continues to hammer the market by liquidating its entire gold reserves on its way to national bankruptcy. Whenever distress liquidations take place, they are bad for everyone, not just the seller. Competition from crypto currencies for the speculative dollar doesn't help either.
As I have been sitting on top of an Alp contemplating the future and out of the markets, my 2018 year-to-date performance remains unchanged at an eye-popping 24.82% and my 8 1/2- year return sits at 301.29%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 35.10%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 38.69%.
It will be a big week on the data front, with an FOMC Meeting and an onslaught of jobs data.
On Monday, July 30 at 10:00 AM we obtain the June Pending Home Sales.
On Tuesday, July 31 at 9:00 AM EST, then we get the May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
On Wednesday, August 1 at 2:00 PM, the Fed announces its decision on interest rates. Given the hot 4.1% Q2 GDP report, another 25-basis point rate rise is entirely possible.
Thursday, August 2, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a rise of 9,000 last week to 219,000.
On Friday, August 3 at 9:15 AM EST we get the July Nonfarm Payroll Report. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.
As for me, the highlight of the week was being handed the keys to the City of Zermatt by the mayor for visiting for the 50th year. Yes, I camped out here at the Youth Hostel in 1968. Also, with the honor came a Swiss Army knife with my name on it and a beautiful 10-pound coffee table book outlining the route I usually take to the Matterhorn summit.
I am now contemplating my return to the U.S., which is always hellish. It will require two trains (to Visp and Geneva), two flights (to Amsterdam and San Francisco), the last one of which lasts a punishing 10 1/2 hours. Then there is the eight hours of jet lag to deal with when I get home. So, I'll be getting up at 2:00 AM for a while. During those days I will be posting some of my favorite pieces from the past.
Still, to see the 14,692-foot Matterhorn from where I am sitting in the brilliant sunshine in all its glory, listening to an Alpine river rushing outside my window, and watching the swaying pines, it is all worth it.
Good luck and good trading.
Global Market Comments
July 26, 2018
Fiat Lux
AMAZON SPECIAL REPORT
Featured Trade:
(SO WHERE DID THOSE AMAZON EARNINGS REALLY COME FROM
AND WHERE ARE THEY GOING?),
(AMZN), (WMT)
Amazon earnings come out after the close today so it's a good time to bone up on the history of the online retail giant. Forewarned is to be forearmed.
Is to time to cash in on the huge profits you have already attained or is it time to load the boat some more?
Jeff Bezos, born Jeff Jorgensen, is the son of an itinerant alcoholic circus clown and a low-level secretary in Albuquerque, New Mexico. When he was three, his father abandoned the family. His mother remarried a Cuban refugee, Miguel Bezos, who eventually became a chemical engineer for Exxon.
I have known Jeff Bezos for so long he had hair when we first met in the 1980s. Not much though, even in those early days. He was a quantitative researcher in the bond department at Morgan Stanley, and I was the head of international trading.
Bezos was then recruited by the cutting-edge quantitative hedge fund, D.E. Shaw, which was making fortunes at the time, but nobody knew how. When I heard in 1994 that he left his certain success there to start an online bookstore, I thought he'd suffered a nervous breakdown, common in our industry.
Bezos incorporated his company in Washington state later that year, initially calling it "Cadabra" and then "Relentess.com." He finally chose "Amazon" as the first interesting word that appeared in the dictionary, suggesting a river of endless supply. When I learned that Bezos would call his start-up "Amazon," I thought he'd gone completely nuts.
Bezos funded his start-up with a $300,000 investment from his parents who he promised stood a 50% chance of losing their entire investment. But then his parents had already spent a lifetime running Bezos through a series of programs for gifted children, so they had the necessary confidence.
It was a classic garage start-up with three employees based in scenic Bellevue, Washington. The hours were long with all of the initial effort going into programming the initial site. To save money, Bezos bought second-hand pine doors, which stood in for desks.
Bezos initially considered 20 different industries to disrupt, including CDs and computer software. He quickly concluded that books were the ripest for disruption, as they were cheap, globally traded, and offered millions of titles.
When Amazon.com was finally launched in 1995, the day was spent fixing software bugs on the site, and the night wrapping and shipping the 50 or so orders a day. Growth was hyperbolic from the get go, with sales reaching $20,000 a week by the end of the second month.
An early problem was obtaining supplies of books when wholesalers refused to offer him credit or deliver books on time. Eventually he would ask suppliers to keep a copy of every book in existence at their own expense, which could ship within 24 hours.
Venture capital rounds followed, eventually raising $200 million. Early participants all became billionaires, gaining returns of 10,000-fold or more, including his trusting parents.
Bezos put the money to work, launching into a hiring binge of epic proportions. "Send us your freaks," Bezos told the recruiting agencies, looking for the tattooed and the heavily pierced who were willing to work in shipping late at night for low wages. Keeping costs rock bottom was always an essential part of the Amazon formula.
Bezos used his new capital to raid Wal-Mart (WMT) for its senior distribution staff, for which it was later sued.
Amazon rode on the coattails of the Dotcom Boom to go public on NASDAQ on May 15, 1997 at $18 a share. The shares quickly rocketed to an astonishing $105, and in 1999 Jeff Bezos became Time magazine's "Man of the Year."
Unfortunately, the company committed many of the mistakes common to inexperienced managements with too much cash on their hands. It blew $200 million on acquisitions that, for the most part, failed. Those include such losers as Pets.com and Drugstore.com. But Bezos's philosophy has always been to try everything and fail them quickly, thus enabling Amazon to evolve 100 times faster than any other.
Amazon went into the Dotcom crash with tons of money on its hands, thus enabling it to survive the long funding drought that followed. Thousands of other competitors failed. Amazon shares plunged to $5.
But the company kept on making money. Sales soared by 50% a month, eventually topping $1 billion by 2001. The media noticed Wall Street took note. The company moved from the garage to a warehouse to a decrepit office building in downtown Seattle.
Amazon moved beyond books to compact disc sales in 1999. Electronics and toys followed. At its New York toy announcement Bezos realized that the company actually had no toys on hand. So, he ordered an employee to max out his credit card cleaning out the local Hammacher Schlemmer just to obtain some convincing props.
A pattern emerged. As Bezos entered a new industry he originally offered to run the online commerce for the leading firm. This happened with Circuit City, Borders, and Toys "R" Us. The firms then offered to take over Amazon, but Bezos wasn't selling.
In the end Amazon came to dominate every field it entered. Please note that all three of the abovementioned firms no longer exist, thanks to extreme price competition from Amazon.
Amazon had a great subsidy in the early years as it did not charge state sales tax. As of 2011, it only charged sales tax in five states. That game is now over, with Amazon now collecting sales taxes in all 45 states that have them.
Amazon Web Services originally started out to manage the firm's own website. It has since grown into a major profit center, with $17.4 billion in net revenues in 2017. Full disclosure: Mad Hedge Fund Trader is a customer.
Amazon entered the hardware business with the launch of its e-reader Kindle in 2007, which sold $5 billion worth in its first year. The Amazon Echo smart speaker followed in 2015 and boasts 71.9% market share. This is despite news stories that it records family conversations and randomly laughs.
Amazon Studios started in 2010, run by a former Disney executive, pumping out a series of high-grade film productions. In 2017 it became the first streaming studio to win an Oscar with Manchester by the Sea with Jeff Bezos visibly in the audience at the Hollywood awards ceremony.
Its acquisitions policy also became much more astute, picking up audio book company Audible.com, shoe seller Zappos, Whole Foods, and most recently PillPack. Since its inception, Amazon has purchased more than 86 outside companies.
Sometimes, Amazon's acquisition tactics are so predatory they would make John D. Rockefeller blush. It decided to get into the discount diaper business in 2010, and offered to buy Diapers.com, which was doing business under the name of "Quidsi." The company refused, so Amazon began offering its own diapers for sale 30% cheaper for a loss. Diapers.com was driven to the wall and caved, selling out for $545 million. Diaper prices then popped back up to their original level.
Welcome to online commerce.
At the end of 2018, Amazon boasted some 306,000 employees worldwide. In fact, it has been the largest single job creator in the United States for the past decade. Also, this year it disclosed the number of Amazon Prime members at 100 million, then raised the price from $80 to $100, thus creating an instant $2 billion in profit.
The company's ability to instantly create profit like this is breathtaking. And this will make you cry. In 2016, Amazon made $2.4 billion from Amazon gift cards left unredeemed!
In 2017, Amazon net revenues totaled an unbelievable $177.87 billion. It is currently capturing about 50% of all new online sales.
So, what's on the menu for Amazon? There is a lot of new ground to pioneer.
1) Health Care is the big one, accounting for $3 trillion, or 17% of U.S. GDP, but where Amazon has just scratched the surface. Its recent $1 billion purchase of PillPack signals a new focus on the area. Who knows? The hyper-competition Bezos always brings to a new market would solve the American health care crisis, which is largely cost driven. Bezos can oust middle men like no one else.
2) Food is the great untouched market for online commerce, which accounts for 20% of total U.S. retail spending, but sees only 2% take place online. Essentially this is a distribution problem, and you have to accomplish this within the prevailing subterranean 1% profit margins in the industry. Books don't need to be frozen or shipped fresh. Wal-Mart (WMT) will be target No. 1, which currently gets 56% of its sales from groceries. Amazon took a leap up the learnings curve with its $13.7 billion purchase of Whole Foods (WFC) in 2017. What will follow will be interesting.
3) Banking is another ripe area for "Amazonification," where excessive fees are rampant. It would be easy for the company to accelerate the process through buying a major bank that already had licenses in all 50 states. Amazon is already working the credit card angle.
4) Overnight Delivery is a natural, as Amazon is already the largest shipper in the U.S., sending out more than 1 million packages a day. The company has a nascent effort here, already acquiring several aircraft to cover its most heavily trafficked routes. Expect FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS), DHL, and the United States Post Office to get severely disrupted.
5) Amazon is about to surpass Wal-Mart this year as the largest clothing retailer. The company has already launched 76 private labels, with half of them in the fashion area, such as Clifton Heritage (color and printed shirts), Buttoned Down (100% cotton shirts) and Goodthreads (casual shirts) as well as subscription services for all of the above.
6) Furniture is currently the fastest growing category at Amazon. Customers can use an Amazon tool to design virtual rooms to see where new items and colors will fit best.
7) Event Ticketing firms like StubHub and Ticketmaster are among the most despised companies in the U.S., so they are great disruption candidates. Amazon has already started in the U.K., and a takeover of one of the above would ease its entry into the U.S.
If only SOME of these new business ventures succeed, they have the potential to DOUBLE Amazon's shares from current levels, taking its market capitalization up to $1.8 trillion. Amazon will easily win the race to become the first $1 trillion company. Perhaps this explains why institutional investors continue to pour into the shares, despite being up a torrid 83% from the February lows.
Whatever happened to Bezos's real father, Ted Jorgensen? He was discovered by an enterprising journalist in 2012 running a bicycle shop in Glendale, Arizona. He had long ago sobered up and remarried. He had no idea who Jeff Bezos was. Ted Jorgensen died in 2015. Bezos never took the time to meet him. Too busy running Amazon, I guess. Worth $160 billion, Bezos is now the richest man in the world.
From a Garage to This
Global Market Comments
July 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA
CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 26-27, 2018),
(WHY YOU MISSED THE TECHNOLOGY BOOM
AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT NOW),
($INDU), (TLT), (GLD), (GOOGL), (FB),
(AAPL), (NVDA), (MSFT), (AMZN)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PICHAI YOURSELF, EARNINGS ARE REALLY THAT GOOD),
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (AAPL), (TWTR), (DIS), (TGT)
Google Translate, Alphabet's (GOOGL) free, multilingual machine, foreign language translation service, translates an unimaginable143 billion words per day.
These were one of the pearls divulged in the conference call from Google's CEO Sundar Pichai.
A bump in usage coincided with the 2018 World Cup in Russia, and in the age of low-cost airfare and overpopulation, it could be Alphabet's new cash cow.
Google Translate has the potential to morph into one of the premier foreign language applications used by anyone and everyone.
Forget about the Amazon effect, the Alphabet effect could be just as pungent, albeit away from the trenches of e-commerce.
Thank goodness the application is still ad-free.
No doubt it would be inconvenient to sit through a 15 second ad while interacting with a concierge at a bed and breakfast in the South of France.
Analysts did not sound out Pichai's plans for Google Translate, but he did mention there are some monetization opportunities on the horizon.
The latest earnings report is the most recent indication that the FANGs along with Microsoft are pulling away from the rest.
The equity price action in 2018 vindicates this fact with more than 80% of the gains spread around just a few high caliber tech names.
Is this fair? No. But life isn't fair.
The too slow too late regulation that was supposed to put a cap on the vaunted FANG group has had the opposite effect, squeezing the small guy out of the picture.
The runway is all clear for the FANGs, and the only way they will be stopped is if they stop themselves or an antitrust ruling.
This all adds up to why Alphabet has been a perennial recommendation for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
Duopolies are few and far between and monopolies even rarer.
They are great for earnings and as the global digital ad pie grows, it falls down to Google's bottom line.
On the news of stellar earnings, Facebook shares jumped higher in aftermarket trading and powered on to trade around 5% the following day.
Expect a great earnings report from Facebook with robust ad revenue growth.
Nothing less would be a failure of epic proportions.
The migration to mobile is real and investors need to understand analysts cannot keep up with the rising year-end targets in these shares.
Alphabet had a high bar over which to pole vault, and it still managed to beat it handily.
And the $5 billion fine for bundling its in-house apps on Android fell on deaf ears.
Alphabet has $102 billion in the coffers, and $5 billion will do nothing to materially affect the company.
The cash reserves are up from $34 billion in 2010.
The market trampled on any sniff of a risk-adverse sentiment and powered into the green with the Nasdaq reaching another all-time high.
Let's not get too carried away. Alphabet's bread and butter is still its digital ad business with Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat confirming this fact saying, "One of the biggest opportunities for investment continues to be in our ads business."
Alphabet still breaks off 86% of revenue from its distinguished ad business.
"Other" is a category commingling Google Cloud, Google Play, and hardware that only comprised 13 percent of total revenue.
"Other Bets" brings up the rear with 1% of total revenue comprising Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving unit, which is an industry leader putting Tesla and Uber in their place.
Waymo plans to shortly roll out a massive commercial operation. Along with Google Translate, it could carve out a nice position in Alphabet's portfolio going forward.
The most important metric was Alphabet's total ad revenue, which it locked in at $28.1 billion, a 23.9% YOY improvement.
Aggregate paid clicks, a model in which the advertiser pays Google for a user to click an ad, has been steadily rising to 58%, up from 52% from the same time last year.
The masterful efficiency circles back to Google's ad tech team, which is by far the best in the business and has outstanding management.
The Cloud is an area that Alphabet highlights as a place for improvement.
Alphabet's cash war chest allows the company to throw hoards of cash at a problem. When mixed with brilliant management it usually works out kindly.
CFO Porat mentioned that costs were particularly higher in the quarterly head count because of large investments in cloud talent.
Google is tired of playing third fiddle to Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), and views enhancing the enterprise business as imperative.
This explains Alphabet's head count surge to more than 89,000 employees, sharply higher than the 75,600 employed a year earlier.
Every FANG and high-tier tech company is spending its brains out to compete with each other.
Expanding data centers is not cheap. Neither are the people to deploy it.
Alphabet has the cash to compete with the Amazons and Apples (AAPL) of the world.
They do not have to borrow.
The potential trip wire in Alphabet's earnings report was Google's traffic acquisition cost (TAC).
Alphabet's (TAC) is described as money paid to other companies to direct user traffic to its suite of Google products.
(TAC) went up to $6.4 billion, which is 23% of Google's ad revenue but down on a relative percentage basis of 24%.
This was enough to keep investors from sounding the alarm and was welcomed by analysts.
Alphabet pulled out all the stops this quarter and the momentum is palpable.
Top-line growth from its core ad business shows no sign of slowing.
Acceptable (TAC) was the cherry on the sundae for the quarter at a time when many industry insiders thought it would be around 25% or higher.
Hardware offered less punch than before, which is what all high-quality tech companies desire.
There were no obvious weaknesses and the 34 straight quarters of 23% YOY growth is hard to top.
Google pulls in 10% of all global digital ad dollars in one business.
Other highlights were Waymo eclipsing the 8-million-mile mark of self-driving on public roads as it is the next business to come to the fore.
Google cloud is at an inflection point attempting to win over corporate management.
It has already won contracts with heavy hitters such as Twitter (TWTR) and Disney (DIS).
Pichai mentioned Target (TGT) as a key new cloud client that just signed on with Google last quarter.
More importantly, Alphabet's brilliant quarter bolsters the macroeconomic picture heavily reliant on tech earnings to usher the market through the gauntlet.
Regulation has proved irrelevant. Whatever fine they are slapped with does not change that Google reaps the benefits from its market position as one of the duopolies in the global ad business.
Alphabet has been trading from the bottom left to the upper right via a consistent channel.
Do not chase the new all-time high of $1,270. Use any weakness around the $1,100 level to initiate new positions.
Owning a company this dominant has little downside. The regulatory burden was a myth and Pichai has handled this operation beautifully.
I am bullish on Alphabet and its partner in crime Facebook.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"Man is still the most extraordinary computer of all," said the 35th President of the United States John F. Kennedy.
Global Market Comments
July 23, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, AUGUST 3, 2018, AMSTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS
GLOBAL STRATEGY DINNER),
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or IT'S SUDDENLY BECOME CRYSTAL CLEAR),
(SPY), (TLT), (QQQ),
(AMZN), (MSFT), (MU), (LRCX),
(REPORT FROM THE ORIENT EXPRESS)
Maybe it's the calming influence of the sound of North Atlantic waves crashing against the hull outside my cabin door for a week. Maybe it was the absence of an Internet connection for seven days, which unplugged me from the 24/7 onslaught of confusing noise.
But suddenly, the outlook for financial markets for the rest of 2018 has suddenly become crystal clear.
I'll give you the one-liner: Nothing has changed.
Some nine years and four months into this bull market, and the sole consideration in share pricing is earnings. Everything else is a waste of time. That includes the Greece crisis, the European debt crisis that drove MF Global under, two presidential elections, the recent trade wars, even the daily disasters coming out of the White House.
Keep your eye focused on earnings and everything else will fade away into irrelevance. It that's simple.
As I predicted, the markets are stair-stepping their way northward ahead of each round of quarterly earnings reports.
And now that we know what to look at, the future looks pretty good.
The earnings story, led by big tech, is alive and well. After a torrid Q1, which saw corporate earnings grow by a heart palpitating 26%, we are looking for a robust 20% for Q2, 23% in Q3, and another 20% in Q4.
The sushi hits the fan when Q1 2019 earnings grow by a mere 5% YOY as the major elixir of tax cuts wear off, leaving us all with giant hangovers.
Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Microsoft (MSFT), all Mad Hedge recommendations over the past year, account for 70% of the total market gains this year.
Look at the table below and you see there has only been ONE trade this year and that has been to buy technology stocks. Everything else, such as oil, the S&P 500 (SPY), the U.S. dollar (UUP) has been an also-ran, or an absolute disaster. And we nailed it. Some 80% of our Trade Alerts this year have been to buy technology stocks.
The gasoline poured on the fire by the huge corporate tax cuts are only now being felt by the real economy. Q2 GDP growth could run as hot as 4%. But there is a sneaking suspicion in the hedge fund industry that these represent peak earnings for the entire economic cycle.
Corporate stock buybacks hit a new all-time high in Q2, as companies repatriate cash hoards from abroad at extremely preferential tax rates to buy back their own shares.
Trade wars are certainly a worry. But retaliation is directed only at Trump supporting red states, which accounts for only a tiny share of U.S. corporate profits. Technology stocks, which account for half of all American profits, have largely been immune, except for the chip sector (MU), (LRCX), which has its own cyclical problems.
Yes, we know this will all end in tears. The yield curve will invert in a year, taking short-term interest rates higher than long-term ones, triggering a recession and a bear market. But the final year of a bull market is often the most profitable as prices go ballistic. You would be a fool to stay scared out of stocks by headline risk and an uncertain Twitter feed.
Yes, early leading indicators of a coming recession are popping up everywhere now. A stunning 12.3% drop in June Housing Starts has to be at the top of anyone's worry list, as rising home mortgage rates and disappearing tax deductions take their pound of flesh. It was the worst report in nine months.
The trade wars promise to leave the Detroit auto industry in substantially reduced form, or at least, the stock market believes so. And a 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield that has been absolutely nailed in a 2.80% to 2.90% range for three months is another classic marketing topping indicator.
I'll let you know when it is time to pull up stakes and head for higher ground. Just keep reading the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
As I have been at sea and out of the markets, my 2018 year-to-date performance remains unchanged at an eye-popping 24.82%, and my 8 1/2-year return sits at 301.29%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 35.10%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 38.69%.
This coming week will be a very boring week on the data front.
On Monday, July 23, there will be nothing of note to report.
On Tuesday, July 24 at 8:30 AM EST, the May Consumer Price Index is released, the most important indicator of inflation.
On Wednesday, July 25 at 7:00 AM, the MBA Mortgage Applications come out. At 2:00 PM EST the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. At 2:30 Fed governor Jerome Powell holds a press conference.
Thursday, July 26, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 13,000 last week to 222,000. Also announced are May Retail Sales.
On Friday, July 27 at 9:15 AM EST we get May Industrial Production. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.
As for me, I am going to attempt to think of more great thoughts this afternoon while hiking up to the Hornli Hut at 11,000 feet on the edge of the Matterhorn, a climb of about 5,000 feet out the front door of my chalet. I always seem to think of my best ideas while hiking uphill. The liter of Cardinal beer and a full plate of bratwurst with rosti potatoes will make it all worth it.
Good luck and good trading.
0
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 20, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A SELLERS' MARKET)
(CSCO), (MSCC), (GOOGL), (MCHP), (SWKS), (JNPR), (AMAT),
(PANW), (UBER), (AMZN), (AVGO), (QCOM), (CA), (CRM)
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