Sometimes, markets are right, and sometimes, they are wrong. With regard to the healthcare industry these days, they have definitely got it wrong. For they are overweighting the political risk to this group presented by the 2020 presidential election.
Even if the most extreme leftist candidate, Elizabeth Warren, wins, she will still have to get the plans through congress. And after the experience of the last three years, you can bet the next congress will be a pretty moderate bunch.
Just as President Trump found it impassable to kill Obamacare, even with an all-Republican Congress, Warren will find it equally difficult to get the most expensive form of Medicare for all passed into law.
Take this view, and all of a sudden, the healthcare industry becomes wildly cheap. In fact, it is one of the lowest valued, highest earning sectors in the entire stock market.
Shares of managed care companies have certainly struggled this year. For instance, Anthem (ANTM) went down 5.1%, Cigna (CI) sunk 13.2%, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) declined by 2.2%, and Humana (HUM) fell 0.3%.
Due to the country’s turbulent political climate courtesy of the impending 2020 elections, investors are anxious over Medicare for All, which has the capacity to shut down the entire industry altogether.
As expected, these fears have weighed heavily on health insurance stocks and these companies are anticipated to experience a rollercoaster of emotions in the next year and a half. However, there could be convincing reasons for Humana to stand out from the rest.
Zeroing in on “population health management” along with “social determinant of health,” the company has been working on boosting its dominance on nonclinical services to deliver better health results. This is because approximately 80% of health outcomes are linked to nonclinical issues. Hence, this initiative could lead to improved products for customers and cost savings.
This is why Medicare Advantage, which allows private insurers to collaborate with Medicare for care coverage, turned into the “crown jewel” of Humana’s growth strategies. Basically, this plan appears and functions like a private health plan but is actually a government-sponsored program.
To date, Humana is the second biggest Medicare Advantage provider growing its membership by 15% during the second quarter of both 2018 and 2019.
As of 2018, the company holds a 17% share of the 20.4 million people enrolled in the Medicare Advantage program, with plans comprising roughly a quarter of the managed care’s medical membership. This accounts for almost three times the industry average, which indicates a positive growth for Humana as Medicare is projected as the fastest-growing sector of the insurance industry in terms of spending.
Actually, basic math could easily illustrate Humana’s upward trajectory as well. The number of Americans eligible for a Medicare plan is increasing by roughly 3% annually. Based on data from the Congressional Budget Office, the number of Medicare recipients opting for Medicare Advantage is estimated to climb from 34% of those eligible for Medicare in 2018 to 42% by 2028. Clearly, this increase offers a lot of room for growth, and Humana is smack dab in the center of it.
Although UnitedHealth actually has more members in the said program at the moment, no other managed care company is as intensive and focused as Humana. In fact, 73% of Humana’s consolidated revenue comes from its Medicare Advantage membership earnings alone. This makes the company a Medicare Advantage pure play.
Holding its position as one of the leaders in this private option available within the Medicare community, Humana has established a stronghold in this ever-evolving and constantly turbulent industry. So far, the stock’s price target is projected to hit $315. Long-term investors could also finally expect to shake off healthcare fear jitters and big rewards from 2021 onwards if the elections result in Democratic leadership.
Looking at Humana’s earnings history, it can be seen that it has grown from $7.75 per share in 2015 to $14.55 by 2018. For this year, the company’s projected earnings is expected to reach $17.50 a share. However, the possibility of a federal tax on health insurers could pose a threat to the company’s growth.
Humana is well-poised for advancement on the back of its strategic plans involving its Medicare business and promising initiatives. In the past years, Humana has been deploying excess capital and hiking its dividend. Just in February 2019, the company increased its dividend by 10% to reach 55 cents a share.
As part of its repurchase strategy, Humana allocated $3 billion for its buyback plans. These moves further indicate the financial capacity of the company and could hopefully reinvigorate investor confidence.
