Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
TECH DESERVES WHAT IT DESERVES)
(RBLX), (ARKK), (ROKU), (TDOC), (ZM), (TSLA), (GM)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
TECH DESERVES WHAT IT DESERVES)
(RBLX), (ARKK), (ROKU), (TDOC), (ZM), (TSLA), (GM)
A bear market rally in tech would be an overwhelmingly healthy signal that the financial system is working in an orderly fashion.
Yet, as I say that, a looming recession inches closer.
How do I know that?
That was my first reaction when my eyes were stung by the headline of 8.3% inflation.
Sure, not a 10, but it is emblematic of the ongoing inflation concerns with items such as airplane tickets up 18% year over year in price.
Remember the consensus was that inflation pressures are trending towards peaking, potentially setting up for a nice bear market rally.
That narrative hit another catch-22, not as bad as it could have been, but clearly not great and prices biting at the backs of consumers.
The hope that inflation will be crammed back into the genie bottle is not going to happen until later this year and not for the right reasons.
Simply because comparables become easier to beat year over year.
Like I have mentioned in past tech letters, high-growth tech stocks are most sensitive to the fluctuation in rates and investors should be nowhere near growth funds like Cathy Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK).
Another head-scratching move was ARK’s Cathy Wood selling Tesla (TSLA) shares and rolling them into GM (GM).
This is for the lady who likes to tell us that we aren’t “doing the research.”
Betting against Elon Musk is a fool’s game.
When it comes to EVs, I would put money on Musk to defy any odds.
Tesla will outperform GM, especially amid a backdrop of lithium prices spiking and supply chain issues going haywire.
Musk is simply the anointed guy that knows how to work miracles.
He only developed the EV industry as he saw fit, invented reusable space rockets, cut the price of space exploration by 10, and reimagined tunneling construction technology.
And by the way, his Neuralink brain interface company is working on implanting chips in human brains so we don’t need to use our fingers on keyboard anymore.
I wouldn’t want to compete with this man and to believe that GM will be able to nimbly outmaneuver Musk who has the audacity to aggressively solve anything no matter how many people he pisses off is not an incremental bet on “innovation” that Wood likes to tout she is participating in.
Neither is the purchase of Roku (ROKU), Zoom (ZM), or Roblox (RBLX) which have all tanked since she put new money to work in them in late April.
Inflation at 8.3% means that the real rate of inflation is still -7.55% and until that’s addressed, any bear market rally will be viciously sold breaching further levels down below.
The carnage in the tech world is indicative at the dregs of the barrel.
Tech IPOs are toxic.
Market for new issues has been bereft throughout the first four-plus months of this year, and nothing that would move the needle is on the tech IPO radar for the duration of the second quarter.
Companies that were aiming to go out in the first half of 2022 have no appetite to continue down that path because there simply won’t be a bid.
Going public today would require a complete revaluation of their business and leave many late-stage investors and employees with out-of-money stock.
Grocery deliverer Instacart is the only company in that class that’s been forthright with its slowing valuation. In March, the company said it cut its valuation by about 40% to $24 billion.
That’s how bad it is out there at the bush league end of the tech sector and many of these stocks that are public such as Teladoc are down 80%.
I do believe that many of these loss-making growth techs are rightfully down 80%.
They had time to show a profit and they failed in the allotted amount of time they were given.
Every window closes and the market moves forward with or without them.
In the near term, I am bearish on the market but I do believe we are oversold which could feed into a dead cat bounce to sell on.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 9, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NICKEL MARKET BECOMES HELLISH)
(JJN), (TSLA), (GM), (F)
Nickel (JJN) is essential for EV batteries, and that spells trouble for certain industries as the price of nickel explodes to the upside.
Projections between 2020 and 2037 reveal that global manufacturing of batteries for EVs and other new energy applications will rise tenfold.
That’s not a typo!
Recently, volatility was so high on nickel that London Metal Exchange, prompted a trading halt.
The price of nickel increased by 250% which many traders blamed directly on the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Unintended consequences have put shivers through the global economic system and higher prices of various types of metals will mean consumers will have less discretionary incomes.
Russia is one of the largest producers of nickel in the world, with miner Norilsk Nickel the number one producer of top-grade nickel globally.
If the metal were added to the sanctions list, it could severely shrink volume to Western suppliers and manufacturers.
EV batteries are one of the highest costs in producing an EV.
The price rise in nickel means that it will cost car manufacturers an extra $3,000 to produce the same car.
Costs are going up around the entire process of making an EV and the pain will be felt with a final sticker price substantially higher than today.
It is plausible that in 2 years we could experience a massive shortage which could exacerbate an already dire supply situation as demand continues to rise.
EVs are getting more popular as the quality of EVs produces gets better with each iteration.
No doubt Tesla helped popularize this type of car.
With the next biggest source of nickel being lower-grade Indonesian supply, and new nickel mines years away from getting online, the only logical conclusion is to bake in lower productivity from Western auto companies.
Ford (F) is planning to make 2 million EVs annually by 2026, GM (GM) hopes to sell 1 million EVs by mid-decade and launch 30 new EV models, and Stellantis plans to sell 5 million EVs by the end of the decade, with 25 new EV models on the way.
These companies are all catching up to Tesla (TSLA).
This will poo poo the momentum of the EV car movement temporarily which many believed would go into overdrive this year.
Once the business model supporting the case to make EVs becomes untenable, large car companies could pull back from these models until supply chains moderate.
Car companies aren’t in the business of building cars that lose money and now the unit economics have been thrown into chaos.
Uncontrollable costs to source raw materials for industrial battery makers such as LG Energy Solution, Panasonic, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co will be passed to the end-user.
It will also make negotiations tougher with EV makers such as Tesla and Volkswagen. And it isn’t just nickel: Prices of cobalt and aluminum, two other key battery metals are grouped into this price surge as well.
U.S. President Joe Biden's solution for lower oil prices was to go out and buy an EV instead of buying gas at the pump. Well, that solution just became more costly and is rising by the day.
This effectively pushes the green movement further back and the high price of oil taking center stage is ruffling a lot of feathers for the American consumer that will have severe implications at the polls this November.
These costs headaches will also be a drag on EV stocks like Tesla in the short term because they simply won’t be able to deliver the volume of cars they planned to produce.
Global Market Comments
February 9, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(WHY TESLA IS TAKING OVER THE WORLD)
(TSLA), (GM), (TM)
(TESTIMONIAL)
It was another typical Elon Musk earnings call.
Tesla is evolving into the world’s preeminent robotics and AI company.
It is building the largest neural network in history, which means all the Tesla’s ever made are talking to each other, some four million by the end of this year.
When the US goes all electric in a decade, the size of the power grid is going to triple (buy copper), or else brownouts and outages will become constant. Every home in the country is going to need solar roofs to meet the demand.
Demand for cars is the greatest Tesla has ever seen, far beyond their ability to produce them, and Q1 is the slow quarter for the auto industry. I just tried to buy a new Model X and the waiting list is one year. In fact, I can sell my existing 2018 Model X on eBay for more than I paid for it….new.
Elon never fails to amaze.
As for the stock, you have to get used to the idea that the world’s greatest company has annual 45% drawdowns. That’s how Tesla has always traded. It's either going to zero or infinity, depending on who you talk to.
My decade target is still $10,000 per share. We just had a $420, 35% pullback, so we may take one more run at the lows before we go to new Highs. But I have only been trading Tesla shares for 11 years. What do I know?
I’ll never forget my first tour of the Fremont factory in 2010, right after they bought it for stock from Toyota (TM) out of the General Motors (GM) bankruptcy (Toyota owned half). Tesla then occupied only a tiny corner of the gigantic 50,000 square foot space.
But you know what? There were virtually no humans on the assembly line, just a long row of red German-made robots. There was just the occasional guy shooting oil into automatic joints.
It was a vision into the future.
I knew I was on the right track when the salesman told me that the customer who just preceded me for a Tesla Model X P100D SUV was the Golden Bay Warriors star basketball player, Steph Currie.
Well, if it’s good enough for Steph, then it’s good enough for me.
So, when I received a call from Elon Musk’s office to test the company’s self-driving technology embedded in their new vehicles for readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
I did, and prepare to have your mind blown!
I was driving at 80 MPH on CA-24, a windy eight-lane freeway that snakes its way through the East San Francisco Bay Area mountains. Suddenly the salesman reached over a flicked a lever twice on the left side of the driving column.
The car took over!
There it was, winding and turning along every curve, perfectly centered in the lane. As much as I hated to admit it, the car drove better than I ever could. It does especially well at night or in fog, a valuable asset for senior citizens whose night vision is fading fast.
All that was required was for me to touch the steering wheel every minute to prove that I was not sleeping.
The cars do especially well in rush hour driving, as it is adept at stop-and-go traffic. You can just sit there and work on your laptop, read a book, call some customers, or watch a movie on the built-in 5G WIFI HD TV.
When we returned to the garage the car really showed off. When we passed a parking space, another button was pushed, and we perfectly backed 90 degrees into a parking space, measuring and calculating all the way.
The range is 300 miles, which I can recharge at home at night from a standard 220-volt socket in my garage in seven hours. When driving to Lake Tahoe, I can stop halfway at get a full charge in 30 minutes at a Tesla supercharging station.
The new chargers operate at a blazing 400 miles per hour. That’s enough time to walk to the subway next door and get a couple of sandwiches.
The chassis can rise as high as eight inches off the ground so it can function as a true SUV.
The “ludicrous mode,” a $12,000 option, take you from 0 to 60
mph in 2.9. However, even a standard Tesla can accelerate so fast that it will make the average passenger carsick.
Here’s the buzzkill.
Tesla absolutely charges through the nose for extras.
The 22-inch wheels, the third row of seats to get you to seven passengers, the premium sound, the leather seats, and the self-driving software can easily run you $30,000-$40,000.
A $750 tow hitch will accommodate a ski or back rack on the back. There is a $1,000 delivery charge, even if you pick it up at the Fremont factory.
It’s easy to see how you can jump from an $84,990 base price to a total cost of $162,500, including taxes, for the ultra-luxury Performance model, as I did.
As for “drop dead’ curb appeal, nothing beats the Model X. When I first started driving Tesla’s I used to get applause at stoplights. It took a while to realize they were cheering the car, not me.
Even after driving one of these for 11 years, I still get notes with phone numbers from young women asking for rides. And they don’t even offer that as an option!
My original split-adjusted cost for my Tesla shares is $3.30.
It’s still true that if you buy the shares, you get the car for free.
I got three.
Thank You, Elon!
Global Market Comments
January 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB), (TLT), (AAPL), (MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF)
Global Market Comments
August 31, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY YOU MUST AVOID ALL EV PLAYS EXCEPT TESLA),
(TSLA), (GM)
Global Market Comments
July 29, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TESTIMONIAL),
(HOW TO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE WITH PARALLEL TRADING),
(GM), (F), (TM), (NSANY), (DDAIF), BMW (BMWYY), (VWAPY),
(PALL), (GS), (RSX), (EZA), (CAT), (CMI), (KMTUY),
(KODK), (SLV), (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
May 3, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE STAIR STEP MARKET IS HERE),
(SPY), (TLT), (MRK), (EL), (UNP), (PFE), (GM), (PYPL), (REGN), (ROKU)
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