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Tag Archive for: (GOOGL)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

India Catches A Tech Wave

Tech Letter

With all the tumult going on in the world today, it’s not shocking that big decisions are being made in terms of tech production and manufacturing outsourcing.

These decisions will reverberate through the tech world for a generation.

China used to be the factory of the world and many thought that its economy would rebound from its lockdown lull to carry the tech world on its shoulders.

It’s clear that China will remain in the doldrums. 

China and the west are decoupling fast and that means American tech companies are no longer comfortable doing business in the Middle Kingdom.

Many big players like Apple are hitching a ride out of the land of pot stickers and Beijing roast duck.

The latest announcement was Alphabet (GOOGL) who will begin production in India of its Pixel 8 smartphones in time for sales in 2024.

Google will partner with local and global suppliers to put together its first India-made handsets, hardware.

The move from the company responsible for Android, the world’s most-used mobile operating system, adds to a string of successes by India’s government in enticing international device makers to build locally.

Dixon Technologies India and Foxconn Technology Group’s Indian unit are the leading contenders to manufacture the phone.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has attracted greater investment from Apple, which opened its first two stores in India this year and is increasingly shifting iPhone production from China to India.

The latest iPhone 15 generation was also the first in the company’s history to launch made-in-India handsets at the same time as those made in China.

Outside of US device makers, Samsung Electronics Co. also manufactures its Galaxy handsets in India and Chinese Android vendors have set up partnerships with local assemblers.

Google counts India as a critical growth engine, where most smartphones run on its Android ecosystem.

However, Google also faces business and regulatory challenges there – startups and companies like Disney have legally challenged some of its in-app policies. Google is also fighting several antitrust battles including one related to alleged abuse of its position in the Android market.

Interestingly, the South Asia country's approach to attracting big manufacturing investments isn't limited to incentives alone.

The government has also implemented comprehensive restrictions to control the influx of foreign electronic devices. It's a strategic blend of both persuasion and coercion, convincing these tech giants to take the plunge into the Indian manufacturing landscape.

Around 200 U.S. companies are actively exploring the possibility of shifting their manufacturing bases from China to India, according to the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF).

It is entirely realistic that in the short future that India will secure the title of the world's largest global manufacturing hub, toppling China's longstanding dominance in the years to come.

These developments are emblematic of a tech manufacturing world in turmoil.

India is perceived as a safe bet to be able to pump out all those gizmos and gadgets that American big tech is reliant on to drive sales.

India also has a massive work force that specializes in software.

It’s easy to say that if American big and small tech hopes to power itself for the next 30 years; they absolutely need the mojo of Indian tech labor and manufacturing to prop up Silicon Valley.

Google moving their supply chain to India gives me more conviction in recommending this stock for the long term.

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud

Tech Letter

Dealing with the Cloud works and for every relevant tech company, this division serves as the pipeline to the CEO position.

If this isn’t the case for a tech company, then there’s something egregiously wrong with them!

Take Andy Jassy, the mastermind behind Amazon’s (AMZN) lucrative cloud computing division and was the man who succeeded company founder Jeff Bezos.

He was rewarded this important position based on his performance in the cloud and faces a daunting proposition of following Bezos as CEO.  

Bezos incorporated Amazon almost 30 years ago.

Jassy developed a highly profitable and market-leading business, Amazon Web Services, that runs data centers serving a wide range of corporate computing needs.

Cloud 101

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.

If you work in Silicon Valley, you can quadruple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.

Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that is where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at anytime from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them working remotely which effectively happened because of the public health situation. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.

Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

And we haven’t talked about the ransomware attacks by Eastern Europeans on energy company Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS Foods.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

The cloud is where you want to be.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-10-16 20:02:232023-10-16 16:41:40Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 16, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 16, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GO STRAIGHT TO THE TOP WITH THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (ZS), (CRM), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-10-16 16:04:262023-10-16 16:41:56October 16, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 11, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 11, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(QUESTIONS POP UP ABOUT GENERATIVE AI)
(GOOGL), (AI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-10-11 15:04:492023-10-11 21:02:52October 11, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Questions Pop Up About Generative AI

Tech Letter

Google is worried that generative artificial intelligence isn’t as accurate or as useful as currently advertised.

There have been major disagreements among internal Google engineers about whether this service is additive at all.

Google product managers, designers, and engineers have used a chat forum to openly debate the AI tool's effectiveness and utility, with some questioning whether the enormous resources going into development are worth it.

The problem with a great deal of the data they are using to build the software is they cannot independently verify whether it is true or not.

The AI systems are trained on massive amounts of text that form the building blocks of chatbots, but this text is just idling on the internet and that doesn’t mean it's accurate.

Last month, Google unveiled its most ambitious update yet: connecting Bard to its most popular services, such as Gmail, Maps, Docs, and YouTube.

However, rolling out these new updates has coincided with a drove of new complaints about the tool generating made-up facts and giving potentially dangerous advice.

Google’s thousands of low-paid contractors training Bard use convoluted instructions that they’re asked to complete in minutes.

In my opinion, Google is attempting to roll out this product as fast as possible without really focusing on the quality.

Inside and outside the company, the internet-search giant has been criticized for providing low-quality information in a race to keep up with the competition, while brushing aside ethical concerns.

For Google, ensuring the success of its Bard AI chatbot is of utmost importance. The company is far and away the leader in search, its financial lifeblood generates about 80% of parent company Alphabet’s revenue.

At Bard’s launch, the company was upfront about its limitations, including the possibility for the AI tool to generate convincing-sounding lies.

Google takes advantage of an army of underpaid and overworked contractors in order to refine Bard’s responses and I believe that is an extremely rash strategy.

Executives also must consider the consequences of the enormous costs needed to maintain large language models.

Google has reacted by downplaying fears, lack of usefulness, and the sheer fact that they might not have any idea what they are doing.

We are in unknown territory now with unproven technology and Bard could end of becoming a giant bust.

When is the point where engineers egging each other on start to question the core project? Remember, these engineers have monetary and personal incentive to continue with this because they are getting paid around half a million dollars per year.

If this project ends in humiliation for Google, they just move on, take the next engineering job, and Google writes down the losses.

The beginning of 2023 was beset with AI euphoria only to move into the latter half of 2023 where investors realize that it would take a while for any of this technology to meaningfully boost revenue.

Questioning the idea in itself is also another downgrade to AI momentum, and investors need to be cautious right now instead of throwing money at whatever sticks.

At some point, management will need to look at this project closer and not make this only about catching up with Microsoft’s ChatGPT.

Next year will go a long way to prove whether this technology is legitimate or not and we stay on a knife edge to see how it plays out. My bet is nothing really hits until later in the year.

Even if it doesn’t go exactly to plan, I do believe there are some revenue-boosting applications from this technology in the long term so it’s not exactly all negative for Google.

It could be that Google realizes that using the best data coupled with the best engineers is a better combination than what they are doing with Bard.
 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 9, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 9, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GLOBAL WAR THREATENS TECH RALLY)
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (LMT), (EV), (CHINA)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Global War Threatens Tech Rally

Tech Letter

Hot wars play a central role in accelerating inflation and the world’s newest kinetic war in the Middle East could prove toxic to the Fed’s quest to quell high inflation.

First, condolences to the atrocities that have occurred in the past 72 hours, the damage to families, society, and communities are hurtful and long-lasting.

Conflict in the Middle East means higher energy prices because a higher risk premium will be attached to the cost of logistics and production.

The Middle East has some of the highest outputs of oil and natural gas in the world with supply from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran flooding the world with cheap energy.

What does that mean for technology stocks?

I can tell you nothing good.

Physical wars rotate demand to certain goods that will deliver the consumer the best outcomes and in this case food and shelter. Running a supermarket during the lockdowns was a small gold mine. That means there is a high chance that money rotates out of Google and Microsoft and goes into defense and military stocks like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin (LMT).

Unless products are critical to survival, goods like EVs and Tesla’s (TSLA) are placed on the backburner.

Few will have the money to charge their EVs with another wave of price increases coming down the pipeline. I already hear Norwegians complaining about the cost of fueling EVs after cheap Russian energy was shut off to them.

Forget about an iPhone upgrade cycle.

Kids will just have to deal with the iPhone 14 for longer.

High inflation plays a leading role in wars and conflicts. But that doesn’t mean that economic policy doesn’t matter anymore. Less wars result in bigger tailwinds to deflation.

China also owns the rare metals industry and policy might dictate to hold back supply and earmark it for national and military industries instead of selling to foreigners.

Tesla’s might not be able to be produced anymore because they can’t secure the right materials like cobalt from China.

If a full-fledged regional war intensifies, then the US economy is almost guaranteed to lock in 4% as the new CPI low for this inflationary cycle. The next move would be higher.

The US has already pledge financial and military aid to Israel and that bill will be footed by the US taxpayer.

If this war begins to get expensive and the US starts shipping off $200 billion every few months to the Middle East then this fiscal spending will bring forward more inflation.

Ultimately, if a third war in the shape of Taiwan rears its ugly head, we could experience high 20% inflation like we did in the 1970’s, but this time around, we would do it with close to $34 trillion in US federal debt and those onerous debt interest payments.

The technology sector better hope and pray for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict in order to stave off the threat of destroying the Santa Claus rally in the Nasdaq.

A third concurrent war in Taiwan would mean instant recession, spiking bond yields, $150 per barrel oil, and technology stocks experiencing a wild pullback.

In the meantime, the newest stresses will guarantee the Eurozone plus UK into a deep recession because they aren’t self-sufficient.

It also adds even more stress to the US economy which is the last man standing at this point because US tech earnings are still in the green.

Certain stocks do very well in times of geopolitics, but these multinational globalized companies have a lot to sacrifice if the world goes pear-shaped.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-10-09 15:02:102023-10-09 16:57:29Global War Threatens Tech Rally
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 30, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 30, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(GOOGLE’S MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH IN QUANTUM COMPUTING),
(GOOGL), (IBM)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Google’s Major Breakthrough in Quantum Computing

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I have been following quantum computing since they moved from the theoretical to the practical about five years ago.

The reason is very simple. They promise to bring a 1 trillion-fold increase in computing power at zero cost, promising to solve in seconds some of the world’s most vexing problems.

They also have the potential to ramp the stock market up at least ten times over the next decade and bring on a new golden age. No kidding!

Last week an academic paper leaked and was quickly withdrawn suggesting that Google has accomplished a major breakthrough in the field.

Google claims to have built the first quantum computer that can carry out calculations beyond the ability of today’s most powerful supercomputers, a landmark moment that has been hotly anticipated by researchers.

A paper by Google’s researchers was briefly posted earlier this week on a NASA website before being removed, claiming that their processor was able to perform a calculation in three minutes and 20 seconds that would take today’s most advanced classical computer, known as Summit, approximately 10,000 years. Yikes!

The researchers said this meant “quantum supremacy” when quantum computers carry out calculations that had previously been impossible, had been achieved. This dramatic speed-up relative to all known classical algorithms provides an experimental realization of quantum supremacy on a computational task and heralds the advent of a much-anticipated computing paradigm. This experiment marks the first computation that can only be performed on a quantum processor.

The system can only perform a single, highly technical calculation, according to the researchers, and the use of quantum machines to solve practical problems is still years away. But the Google researchers called it “a milestone towards full-scale quantum computing”.

They also predicted that the power of quantum machines would expand at a “double exponential rate”, compared to the exponential rate of Moore’s Law, which has driven advances in silicon chips in the first era of computing. That means a potential doubling of computing power every nine months with a halving of cost.

While prototypes of so-called quantum computers do exist, developed by companies ranging from IBM (IBM) to start-ups such as Rigetti Computing, they can only perform the same limited tasks classical computers can, albeit quicker. There is also a huge problem accessing stored data. Quantum computers, if they can be built at scale, will harness properties that extend beyond the limits of classical physics to offer exponential gains in computing power.

A November 2018 report by the Boston Consulting Group said they could “change the game in such fields as cryptography and chemistry (and thus material science, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals) not to mention artificial intelligence and machine learning . . . logistics, manufacturing, finance, and energy”.

Unlike the basic binary elements of classical computers, or bits, which represent either zeros or ones, quantum bits, or “qubits”, can represent both at the same time. By stringing together qubits, the number of states they could represent rises exponentially, making it possible to compute millions of possibilities instantly.

Some researchers have warned against overhyping the quantum supremacy, arguing that it does not suggest that quantum machines will quickly overtake traditional computers and bring a revolution in computing. Led by John Martinis, an experimental physicist from the University of California, Santa Barbara, Google first predicted it would reach quantum supremacy by the end of 2017. But the system it built, linking together 72 qubits proved too difficult to control. It eventually revamped the system to create a 53-qubit design it codenamed Sycamore.

The system was given the task of proving that a random-number generator was truly random. Though that job has little practical application, the Google researchers said that “other initial uses for this computational capability” included machine learning, materials science, and chemistry.

“It’s a significant milestone, and the first time that somebody has shown that quantum computers could outperform classical computers at all,” said Steve Brierley, founder of quantum software start-up Riverlane, who has worked in the field for 20 years and is an adviser on quantum technologies to the UK government. “It’s an amazing achievement.”

To illustrate where we are with Quantum computers today, think of it as 1945, when only five mainframe computers existed in the world, all in the US and England. That’s when IBM founder Thomas Watson famously predicted that “The total market for computers is five.”

Oops.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/mainframes.png 486 864 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-30 09:02:252023-08-30 14:58:26Google’s Major Breakthrough in Quantum Computing
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 16, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 16, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CORD CUTTING IS TAKING OVER)
(NFLX), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (CMCSA), (DIS)

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