Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 17, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SPOTIFY REGIME),
(SPOT), (AAPL), (NFLX), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GS)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 17, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SPOTIFY REGIME),
(SPOT), (AAPL), (NFLX), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GS)
It’s not earth-shattering to concede that our attention spans have shrunk and as a result, there are unintended consequences.
The various smart devices and other technology vying for a slice of your precious attention have been accepted as the new normal.
Whether it’s binging on Netflix (NFLX) or gaming on a Microsoft Xbox (MSFT), consumers are absorbed obsessively staring into a screen most of the day.
As tech penetrates the core of our existence, the music industry has been the recipient of changes that were hard to fathom just a few years ago.
And as all businesses morph into pseudo-tech enterprises supported by data analytic teams, management is able to unearth some compelling data and utilize it to commercialize the audience.
Spotify (SPOT), the world’s leading music streaming platform, doesn’t monetarily reward music artists unless a stream surpasses a minimum of 30 seconds.
This is just one way that Spotify’s founder and CEO Daniel Ek has changed the music industry.
Think about the implications.
Gone are the elaborate instrumentals to warm listeners up before a catchy chorus hooks you forever.
Songs are entirely front loaded now with the end goal of persuading listeners to not swipe until the 30-second barrier is passed.
Whatever happens after that doesn’t matter – the song might as well go silent because Spotify will pay the artist.
According to Spotify data, Ed Sheeran’s “The Shape of You” is Spotify’s most-streamed song with 1.94 billion listens.
This is just one scant nugget of data in Spotify’s treasure trove of global music data that finely chronicles the state of the music industry and how consumers devour music.
Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy promptly explained the Spotify’s relationship with data and music at the Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Communacopia conference by saying, “The company with the most data wins. The company with the most data insights wins. The company with the engineering culture, software-driven business wins. And that’s the play we’re making.”
In the current tech climate, I will take software over hardware any day of the week.
Hardware sales are a one-off event until the next cycles bring an upgraded iteration which could take years to execute.
Software sales are an annual recurring revenue stream that is as sticky as the software's quality giving hope to company CFO’s of a perpetual income stream.
It doesn’t matter that Spotify isn’t profitable. The end goal isn’t to make money in an industry that is notoriously difficult to combat the royalty expenses eroding 70% of every $1 of revenue.
What has happened is that Spotify is too big to fail and it loves every second of it.
The music industry needs Spotify just as much as Spotify needs the music industry and this awkward partnership is far from a match made in heaven, but it works for the foreseeable future.
It helps that artists, for the most part, have bought into the data-based streaming model.
Music artists have turned into tech-like firms themselves.
Their new goal is to compile an audience then monetize like Spotify itself.
It speaks volumes of how the tech model has penetrated every corner of the world.
Apple (AAPL) is acutely aware of the potency a music streaming service offers and has been investing in Apple Music, its music streaming arm.
Rumors have been swirling that Apple absorbed the entire staff of a music analytics firm called Asaii including the owners, for a tad under $100 million.
This talent grab on the heels of the Shazam purchase indicates that Apple seeks a better understanding of how to curate music playlists and better serve music fans who own Apple devices.
Even though Apple has the second leading music streaming service, they have ceded the battle to Spotify.
CEO of Apple Time Cook is on record saying, “We’re not in it for the money.”
Indirectly, Cook means Apple Music is a loss-making division and he doesn’t care because it is just a small fragment of what makes Apple one of the best companies in the world.
Apple has also commissioned 24 television shows and 2 films costing them $1 billion.
A single billion is peanuts considering the eye-popping amount of Apple’s cash hoard. They can afford to take the long-term view and slowly enhance the ecosystem instead of Spotify whose eggs are all in one basket.
Apple is more concerned about offering iOS users the best experience possible and in return Cook hopes to count on them to use iOS devices for a lifetime.
Apple Music’s biggest weakness is its biggest strength.
In short, Apple music is tailored to the iOS operating system.
If you sign up, the app directs users to sign up for an Apple ID if you do not already have one.
Android lovers have little interest in signing up for Apple Music considering they do not have an Apple device and then must pay $9.99 per month after the introductory 3-month offer expires when Spotify is free. It’s not worth the extra hassle.
It is almost certain that Spotify will enact an Android operating system pivot to build a moat around its business and that is something Apple cannot do.
Spotify will start partnering with Samsung, Microsoft, and the Android-based Asian manufacturers to focus on monetizing the Android audience and make it even more inconvenient for listeners to access Apple Music.
Signing up for Spotify and listening to its ad-free subscription without creating an Apple ID is more appealing.
And after three months, users have the option to continue a free version of Spotify, albeit with digital ads popping up.
This leads me to the belief that there is definitely space for more than one player in the music streaming industry.
Amazon is another tech firm who has a music streaming service but are more concerned if they convert users into prime memberships.
If compiling the most music data wins out, then Spotify is in the lead with its 83 million paid users and 101 million free users.
Apple trails in second place with 50 million users which is still an extraordinary number of listeners and easily monetizable.
The way music streaming platforms works is that users are more likely to listen to the most popular artists and songs and not look for an adventure.
The app is merely there to locate the songs they already like or click on a recommendation produced by an algorithm.
It’s not like going out on a Friday night to experience some unknown singer in a grunge basement and becoming a new fan. Users know what they want, and they desire to access it. Such is the nature of internet search.
Spotify’s data shows that out of 3 million artists on the platform, 200,000 artists receive 70% of the music streams, clearly segmenting the haves and have-nots.
The rest of the 2.8 million are struggling to be discovered and cannot cut a wage off of Spotify’s platform.
Online music streaming products also align perfectly well with artificial intelligence-based voice activation technology.
These services will deeply integrate this technology into its services as they desire to ramp up the quality of services.
As for the music streaming business hopefuls, it's game over as the three major players have the leverage to put out any fires that crop up.
When you break it down, Spotify has a 180 million user audience growing at 30% YOY and is hellbent on becoming profitable.
As they enhance the platform’s tools and services, gradually expect more subscription-based products to entertain users.
And even if Spotify doesn’t become profitable as soon as they would like, the aggregate hoard of data will multiply in value.
Spotify is already the most prized music asset in the world with a market cap of $26 billion, about $10 billion higher than all global music revenues.
Yes, Spotify destroyed album artwork and its audio quality of 320 kilobits per second is no match for CD-quality audio. But this is the world we live in today and Daniel Ek’s Spotify is the 800-pound gorilla in the room.
Spotify is a great long-term buy-and-hold asset. Take the latest weakness to add to your position.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 4, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW SOFTBANK IS TAKING OVER THE US VENTURE CAPITAL BUSINESS),
(SFTBY), (BABA), (GRUB), (WMT), (GM), (GS)
One of the few people who can magnify pressure on the venture capitalists of Silicon Valley is none other than Masayoshi Son.
What a ride it has been so far. At least for him.
His $100 billion SoftBank Vision Fund has put the Sand Hill Road faithful in a tizzy – utterly revolutionizing an industry and showing who the true power broker is in Silicon Valley.
He has even gone so far as doubling down his prospects by claiming that he will raise a $100 billion fund every few years and spend $50 billion per year.
This capital logically would flow into what he knows best – technology and the best technology money can buy.
As Yahoo Japan and Alibaba (BABA) shares have floundered, SoftBank’s stock has decoupled from the duo displaying explosive brawn.
SoftBank’s stock is up 30% in the past few months and I can tell you it’s not because of his Japanese telecommunications business which has served him well until now as his cash cow.
Yahoo Japan, in which SoftBank owns a 48.17% stake, has existing synergies with SoftBank’s Japanese business, but has experienced a tumble in share price as Son turns his laser-like focus to his epic Vision Fund.
His tech investments are bearing fruit and not only that, Son revealed his Alibaba investment is about to clean up shop to the tune of $11.7 billion next year shooting SoftBank shares into orbit.
A good portion of the lucrative windfall will arrive from derivatives connected to the sale of Alibaba, and the other 60% comes from the paper profits finally realized in this shrewd piece of business.
Equally paramount, SoftBank’s Vision Fund hauled in $2.13 billion in operating profits from the April-June quarter underscoring the effectiveness of Masayoshi Son’s tech ardor.
Son said it best of the performance of the Vision Fund saying, “Results have actually been too good.”
So good that after this June, Son changed his schedule to spend 3% of his time on his telecom business down from 97% before June.
His telecommunications business in Japan has turned into a footnote.
It was the first quarter that Son’s tech investments eclipsed his legacy communications company.
Son vies to rinse and repeat this strategy to the horror of other venture capitalists.
The bottomless pit of capital he brings to the table predictably raises the prices for everyone in the tech investment world.
Son’s capital warfare strategy revolves around one main trope – Artificial Intelligence.
He also strictly selects industry leaders which have a high chance of dominating their field of expertise.
Geographically speaking, the fund has pinpointed America and China as the best sources of companies. India takes in the bronze medal.
Unsurprisingly, these two heavyweights are the unequivocal leaders in artificial intelligence spearheading this movement with the utmost zeal.
His eyes have been squarely set on Silicon Valley for quite some time and his record speaks for himself scooping up stakes in power players such as Uber, WeWork, Slack, and GM (GM) Cruise.
Other stakes in Chinese firms he’s picked up are China’s Uber Didi Chuxing, China’s GrubHub (GRUB) Ele.me and the first digital insurer in China named Zhongan International costing him $500 million.
Other notable deals done are its sale of Flipkart to Walmart (WMT) for $4 billion giving SoftBank a $1.5 billion or 60% profit on the $2.5 billion position.
In 2016, the entire venture capitalist industry registered $75.3 billion in capital allocation according to the National Venture Capital Association.
This one company is rivalling that same spending power by itself.
Its smallest deal isn’t even small at $100 million, baffling the local players forcing them to scurry back to the drawing board.
The reverberation has been intense and far-reaching in Silicon Valley with former stalwarts such as Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers breaking up, outmaneuvered by this fresh newcomer with unlimited capital.
Let me remind you that it was considered standard to cautiously wade into investment with several millions.
Venture capitalists would take stock of the progress and reassess if they wanted to delve in some more.
There was no bazooka strategy then.
SoftBank has thrown this tactic out the window by offering aspiring firms showing promise boatloads of capital up front even overpaying in some cases.
Conveniently, Son stations himself nearby at a nine-acre estate in Woodside, California complete with an Italianate mansion he bought for $117.5 million in 2012.
It was one of the most expensive properties ever purchased in the state of California even topping Hostess Brands owner Daren Metropoulos, who bought the Playboy Mansion from Hugh Hefner in 2016 for $100 million.
If you think Son is posh – he is not. He only fits himself out in the Japanese budget clothing brand Uniqlo. He just needed a comfortable place to stay and he hates hotels.
In August, SoftBank decided to top off the $4.4 billion investment in WeWork, an American office space-share company, with another $1 billion leading Son to proclaim that WeWork would be his “next Alibaba.”
Son continued to say that WeWork is “something completely new that uses technology to build and network communities.”
The rise of remote workers is taking the world by storm and this bet clearly follows this trend.
The unlimited coffee and beer found in the new Japanese Roppongi WeWork office that opened earlier this year was a nice touch.
WeWork plans to open 10-12 offices in Japan by the end of 2018.
Thus far, WeWork is operating in over 300 locations in over 20 countries.
Revenue is growing rapidly with the $900 million in 2017 a 12-fold improvement from 2014.
The newest addition to SoftBank’s dazzling array of unicorns is Bytedance, a start-up whose algorithms have fueled news-stream app Jinri Toutiao’s meteoric rise in China.
The deal values the company at $75 billion.
It also runs video sharing app Douyin, and overseas version TikTok.
Bytedance’s proprietary algorithm, serving to personalize streams for users, is the best in China.
They have been able to insulate themselves from local industry giants Tencent and Alibaba.
TikTok has piled up over 500 million users and brilliant investment like these is why Son revealed that the Vision Fund’s annual rate of return has been 44%.
SoftBank’s ceaseless ambition has them in the news again with whispers of investing in a Chinese online education space with a company called Zuoyebang.
China’s online education market is massive. In 2017, this industry pulled down over $33 billion in revenue, and 2018 is poised to break $55 billion.
Zuoyebang has lured in Goldman Sach’s (GS) as an investor.
This platform allows users to upload homework questions for third party assistance – the name of the app literally translates into “homework help.”
Cherry-picking off the top of the heap from the best artificial intelligence companies in the world is the secret recipe to outperforming your competitors.
At the same time, aggressively throwing money at these companies has effectively frozen out any resemblance of competition. Once the competition is frozen out, the value of these investments explodes, swiftly super-charged by rapidly expanding growth drivers.
How can you compete with a man who is willing to pay $300 million for a dog walking app?
Venture capitalist funds have been scrambling to reload and mimic a Vision Fund-like business of their own, but its not easy raising $100 billion quickly.
This genius strategy has made the founder of SoftBank the most powerful businessman in the world.
Son owns the future and will have the largest say on how the world and economies evolve going forward.
Global Market Comments
September 27, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE WITH PARALLEL TRADING),
(GM), (F), (TM), (NSANY), (DDAIF), BMW (BMWYY), (VWAPY),
(PALL), (GS), (RSX), (EZA), (CAT), (CMI), (KMTUY),
(KODK), (SLV), (AAPL),
(TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2018, MIAMI, FL,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
Global Market Comments
September 24, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or IT’S FED WEEK),
(SPY), (XLI), (XLV), (XLP), (XLY), (HD), (LOW), (GS), (MS), (TLT),
(UUP), (FXE), (FCX), (EEM), (VIX), (VXX), (UPS), (TGT)
(TEN TIPS FOR SURVIVING A DAY OFF WITH ME)
20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing, especially when all of your predictions come true.
In February, I announced that markets would trade in broad ranges until the run-up to the midterm elections. That is what has happened to a tee, with the decisive upside breakout taking place last week. From here on. You’re trying to buy dips for a year-end run-up to higher highs.
For many months I was the sole voice in the darkness crying out that the bull market was still alive, it was just resting. Now quality laggards are taking the lead, such as in Industrials (XLI), Health Care (XLV), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY).
Home Depot (HD), which I recommended a month ago has taken off for the races, as has competitor Lowes (LOW), thanks to a twin hurricane boost. Even the long dead banks have recently showed a pulse (MS), (GS).
Technology stocks are taking a long-needed rest after a torrid two-and-a-half-year run. But they’ll be back. They always come back.
It’s not only stocks that have broken out of ranges, so has the bond market (TLT), the U.S. dollar (UUP), and foreign currencies (FXE). Will commodity companies like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and emerging markets (EEM) be the last to pick themselves off the mat, or do they really need to see the end of the trade wars first?
Markets are essentially acting like the trade war is over and we won. Why would traders believe this? That’s what a Volatility Index touching $11 tells you and is why I have been telling them to avoid buying it all week. Because the president told them so.
Another not insignificant positive is that multinationals have been slow to repatriate foreign funds, so there is a lot more still abroad to buy back their own stocks.
Weekly jobless claims hit another half century low at 201,000. Major U.S. companies such as UPS (UPS) and Target (TGT) are planning record levels of Christmas hiring. By the way, this is what economic peaks look like.
The Senate passes a mini spending bill that keeps the government from shutting down until December 7. The budget deficit keeps on soaring, but apparently, I am the only one who cares. Live through a debt crisis like we had during the early 1980s and you’d feel the same way.
The data for housing continues to be terrible, and we saw our first increase in inventories in three years.
Finally, with people camping out overnight and lines around the block, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook opens the doors to the Palo Alto, CA, store at 9:00 AM sharp on Friday to three new phones. But did the stock peak at $230, as it has in past release cycles?
Last week, the performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service forged a new all-time high and then gave it up on one bad trade. September is now unchanged at -0.32%. My 2018 year-to-date performance has retreated to 26.69%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 38.23%.
My nine-year return appreciated to 303.16%. The average annualized Return stands at 34.32%. I hope you all feel like you’re getting your money’s worth.
This coming week is all about the Fed, plus a plethora of housing data.
On Monday, September 24, at 10:30 AM, we learn the August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey.
On Tuesday, September 25, at 9:00 AM, the new S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for July, a three-month lagging indicator.
On Wednesday September 26, at 10:00 AM, the August New Home Sales is published. At 2:00 the Fed Open Market Committee announced its decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
Thursday, September 27 leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which dropped 3,000 last week to 201,000, a new 43-year low. At the same time an update on Q2 GDP is published.
On Friday, September 28, at 9:45 AM, we learn the August Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. The Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.
As for me,
Good luck and good trading.
Global Market Comments
September 21, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SEPTEMBER 19 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (GS), (BABA), (BIDU), (TLT), (TBT),
(TSLA), (NVDA), (MU), (XLP), (AAPL), (EEM),
(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader September 19 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.
As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!
Q: Do you expect a correction in the near term?
A: Yes. In fact, we may even see it in October. Markets (SPY) have been in extreme, overbought territory for a month now, the macro background is terrible, trade wars are accelerating, and interest rates are rising sharply. The only thing holding the market up is the prospect of one more quarter of good earnings, which companies start reporting next month. So once that’s out of the way, be careful, because people are just hanging on to the last final quarter before they sell.
Q: I just got out of my cannabis stock, what should I do now?
A: Thank your lucky stars you got away with that—it was an awful trade and you made money on it anyway. Stay away in droves. After all, the cannabis industry is all about growing a weed and how hard is that? This means the barriers to entry are zero. In fact, I’m thinking of growing some in my own backyard. My tomatoes do well, so why not Mary Jane?
Q: The Volatility Index (VIX) is now at $11.79—should I buy?
A: No, the rule of thumb for the (VIX) is to wait for it to sit on a bottom for one to two weeks and let some time decay work itself out. You’ll see that in the ETF, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). When it stops breaking to new lows, that means it’s ready for another bounce. I would wait.
Q: What do you think about banks here? Is it time to get in?
A: No, these are not promising charts. If anything, I’d say Goldman Sachs (GS) is getting ready to do a head and shoulders and go to new lows. I would stay away from financials unless I see more positive evidence. The industry is ripe for disruption from fintech, which has already started. That’s said, they are way overdue for a dead cat bounce. That’s a trade, not an investment.
Q: Would you short Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) here?
A: No. Shorting is what I would have done six months ago; now it’s far too late. If anything, I would be a buyer of those stocks here, based on the possibility that we will see progress or an end to the trade war in the next couple of months. If the trade wars continue, they will put the U.S. in recession next year, and then you don’t want to own stocks anywhere.
Q: Is Apple (AAPL) going to get hit by the trade wars?
A: So far, this has not been the case, but they are whistling past the graveyard right now—an obvious target in the trade wars from both sides. For instance, the U.S. could suddenly start applying a 25% import duty to iPhones from China, which would make your $1,000 phone a $1,250 phone. Similarly, the Chinese could hit it in China, restricting their manufacturing in one way or another. I’m being very cautious of Apple for this reason. The stock already has one $10 drop just because of this worry.
Q: Can the U.S. ban China from selling bonds?
A: No, they can’t. The global U.S. Treasury bond market (TLT) is international by nature—there is no way to stop the selling. It would take a state of war to reach the point where the Fed actually seizes China’s U.S. Treasury bond holdings. The last time that happened was when Iran seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. Iran didn’t get its money back until the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015. Before that you have to go back to WWII, when the U.S. seized all German and Japanese assets. They never got those back.
Q: What are your thoughts on the chip sector?
A: Stay away short-term because of the China trade war, but it’s a great buy on the long term. These stocks, like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) have another double in them. The fundamentals are outrageously good.
Q: Is the market crazy, or what?
A: Yes, it is crazy, which is why I’m keeping 90% cash and 10% on the short side. But “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid,” as my friend John Maynard Keynes used to say.
Q: What’s your take on the Consumer Staples sector (XLP)?
A: It will likely go up for the rest of the year, into the Christmas period; it’s a fairly safe sector. The uptrend will remain until it doesn’t.
Q: Should we buy TBT now?
A: No, the time to buy the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) was two months ago. Now is the time to sell and take profits. I don’t think 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (TLT) are going above 3.11% in this cycle, and we are now at 3.07%. Buy low and sell high, that’s how you make the money, not the opposite.
Q: Does this webinar get posted on the website?
A: Yes, but you have to log in to access it. Then hover your cursor over My Account and a drop-down menu magically appears. Click on Global Trading Dispatch, then the Webinars button, and the last nine years of webinars appear. Pick the webinar you want and click on the “PLAY” arrow. Just give us a couple of hours to get it up.
Q: Can Chinese companies use Southeast Asia as a conduit to export to the U.S.?
A: Yes. This is an old trick to bypass trade restrictions. For example, most of the Chinese steel coming into the U.S. is through third countries, like Singapore. Eventually they do get found out, at which point companies or imports from Vietnam will be identified as Chinese origin and get hit with the import duties anyway, but it could take a year or two for those illegal imports to get discovered. This has been going on ever since trade started.
Q: Will the currency crisis in Argentina and Turkey spread to a global contagion?
A: Yes, and this could be another cause of a global recession late next year. The canaries in the coal live there (EEM).
Q: Would you use the DOJ probe to buy into Tesla (TSLA)?
A: No, buy the car, not the stock as it is untradeable. This is in fact the third DOJ investigation Tesla has undergone since Trump came into office. The last one was over how they handled the $400 million they have in deposits for their 400,000 orders. It turns out it was all held in an escrow account. There are easier ways to make money. It’s a black swan a day with Tesla. This is what happens when you disrupt about half of the U.S. GDP all at once, including autos, the national dealer network, big oil, and advertising. All of these are among the largest campaign donors in the U.S.
Global Market Comments
August 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY BANKS HAVE PERFORMED SO BADLY THIS YEAR),
(JPM), (C), (GS), (SCHW), (WFC),
(HOW FREE ENERGY WILL POWER THE COMING ROARING TWENTIES),
(SPWR), (TSLA)
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