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Tag Archive for: (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 2, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 2, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SALESFORCE TRIES TO STAY RELEVANT IN THE CLOUD)
(CRM), (WORK), (MSFT), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-02 12:04:232020-12-02 13:48:01December 2, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Salesforce Tries to Stay Relevant in the Cloud

Tech Letter

This was basically a deal they had to do even though I believe Salesforce (CRM) massively overpaid for Slack (WORK).

The other option would be to fall even further behind Microsoft (MSFT) who has hit a home run with their own in-house iteration of Slack-ish software called Microsoft Teams.

In fact, this is the biggest acquisition in Salesforce’s software history and purchasing the software developer Slack for over $27 billion marks a new chapter in their history.

Through a combination of cash and stock, Salesforce is purchasing Slack for $26.79 a share and .0776 shares of Salesforce.

Other big software deals such as IBM’s $34 billion purchase of Red Hat in 2018, the largest in its history, followed by Microsoft’s $27 billion acquisition of LinkedIn in 2016 are also noteworthy.

Last year, the London Stock Exchange agreed to buy data provider Refinitiv for $27 billion, though the deal has yet to be cleared by European regulators.

Salesforce has decided to grow via M&A as CEO Marc Benioff hopes to stave off a growth downturn by pre-emptively addressing these potential problems.

His goal is to get more investors on board for the long haul.

In the short term, the jury is out on whether Salesforce can “grow into” the high valuation which they agreed to pay for Slack.

Other deals made by Salesforce are when the company spent $15.3 billion on data visualization company Tableau in 2019 and, a year earlier, they captured MuleSoft for $6.5 billion whose back-end software connects data stored in disparate places.

The future of enterprise software is transforming the way everyone works in the all-digital, work-from-anywhere world and Salesforce will be one of the leading voices in how this plays out.

Don’t forget that Salesforce started the enterprise cloud revolution, and two decades later, they are still tapping into all the possibilities it offers to transform the way we work.

For Slack, this is a major victory because they had begun to see the writing on the wall with two uninspiring earnings reports which signaled that Microsoft was having their cake and eating it too.

For Salesforce to pay a 30%-40% premium for Slack reveals the sense of desperation permeating into the ranks of Salesforce management.

Another takeaway is that enterprise software is putting their money where their mouth is convinced that the shelter-in-home economy will last long after the brutal public health crisis is over.

I tend to agree with this diagnosis, but I don’t agree with overpaying for Slack at the degree in which they did.

However, the climate of cheap rates and high liquidity feeds into the normalcy of overpaying for quality assets.

What’s so bad about Slack?

Slack has blamed the downturn in fortunes on some of its small business customers being hurt by the pandemic.

The company has loosened contract structures and extended credits to help them out which is a major red flag.

The slowdown has only fueled nervousness that Microsoft (MSFT) Teams’ ascent is weighing on Slack’s growth potential.

Teams now has more than 115 million users while Slack has a fraction of that, despite having the edge in the minds of most in terms of user interface.

Slack’s slowing growth, in turn, hurt its sentiment and ultimately its stock price.

Salesforce could have acquired Slack for a discount in a year or two, but by that time, Salesforce would be left in the dust.

Salesforce had to act with urgency even if Slack still expects to post a net loss this fiscal year. It’s unclear when Slack will turn a profit-making company even less attractive.

Salesforce will need to subsidize Slack’s losses for the time being.

What’s in it for Salesforce?

Salesforce could help easily scale up Slack to more high-paying corporate customers in a major challenge to Microsoft Teams which would vastly help Slack’s margins.

There are also numerous synergies in being under the Salesforce umbrella which would only strengthen the profit potential of the communications platform.

By acquiring Slack, a business chat service with over 130,000 paid customers, Salesforce is bolstering its portfolio of enterprise applications and filling out its broader software roster as it seeks additional growth engines.

Salesforce obviously believes that the sum of the parts will be greater than each individual segment and I agree.

Salesforce’s annualized revenue topped $20 billion in the fiscal second quarter, with growth of 29%. But the forecast for the full year of 21% to 22% growth would represent the company’s slowest rate of expansion since 2010.

Microsoft and Salesforce are direct rivals at this point and Salesforce is the dominant player in customer relationship management software, where Microsoft is a distant challenger. Both companies tried to buy LinkedIn, the professional networking site, but Microsoft was the ultimate winner.

The company’s core Sales Cloud product for keeping track of current and potential customers delivered $1.3 billion in revenue, up 12% year over year and that’s simply not good enough to be considered a “growth asset.”

Many investors won’t bite at the bid unless a burgeoning tech company is north of 20% and preferably plus 30%.

Salesforce will now embark on a narrative of engineering growth to fit its investors’ preferences, but I do hesitate to think that this will most likely mean continuing to overpay for software companies.

Salesforce does have the resources to absorb this pricey endeavor but is it sustainable when the likes of Microsoft, Google, and so on are competing for the same assets?

Does this mean that Twitter would be $60 billion in today’s climate?

That’s a scary thought.

M&A could disappear soon from tech because the valuations might reach some sort of peak that even cash-rich Silicon Valley firms might balk at.

Yes, we are getting to that stage of tech. Tech is becoming a luxury.

In the short term, buy Salesforce’s dip as some investors will sell as a way to signal to Salesforce that they aren’t happy with their capital allocation strategy and ultimately this isn’t a guarantee of adding growth and could possibly backfire in Benioff’s face.

 

 

salesforce

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 14, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TECH OPTION VOLUME UNHINGED)
($COMPQ), (APPL), (FB), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NFLX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-14 11:04:262020-10-14 10:56:52October 14, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Tech Option Volume Unhinged

Tech Letter

The euphoria in big cap tech shares is the catalyst moving the Nasdaq index recently.

Call option activity is taking the top off of tech shares with usual low beta stocks surging over 5% in single trading sessions.

This unfortunately is causing our options trades to experience heightened stock volatility and the knock-on effect is our strikes getting blown out.

Some of the excess volatility comes down to traders making big bets in the run-up to the election.

Remember when Trump won in 2016, the market exploded higher when many “experts” guaranteed a massive sell-off would ensue.

In the short-term, the unsustainable pace of speculation in derivatives will translate into wild price swings. Monday brought the biggest rally for the Nasdaq 100 Index since April, but measures of volatility rallied as well.

One proxy for the froth still latent in options, the percentage of overall volume represented by single-stock contracts, remains up 19% from a year ago.

Most of the action is concentrated in mega cap technology and momentum-driven shares.

A consensus is coalescing around a few big buyers coming into the options market to corner it with rumors of purchases around $300 million worth of call contracts on tech stocks in a single day.

The Nasdaq 100 Index has gained in all but two sessions this month and just notched its best week since July after last month’s sharp drop.

Whipsawing markets are also possible when liquidity remains thin.

Trading in options showed itself capable of influencing share movement in August and September when dealer hedging (demand from people who sell options for the underlying stock) created feedback loops that helped drive the Nasdaq higher.

That dynamic can also make sell-offs worse than they should be as well as sellers adjust positions.

Big trades in thin markets, especially in technology or momentum trades considered overbought or oversold, increase the potential for exacerbated stock moves as dealers hedge exposure.

Call open interest in Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (APPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) has averaged 12.8 million contracts over the 30 days through Friday, the highest since early 2019.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index has gyrated an average of 1.8% per day since the beginning of September, while the broader market gauge has fluctuated by 1.2% over that time period.

Recent options activity has been momentum-based, meaning that stocks tend to attract more interest in calls when it’s rallying versus when it trades lower.

Throw in structural forces that are contributing to a sustained high implied volatility environment, and election hedgers have their work cut out for them.

There are fewer short-volatility players as well in the wake of the health crisis.

There’s also less volatility selling by retail investors after the delisting of some popular VIX products earlier this year like the volatility ETF ticker symbol XIV.

It could take a few years for the imbalances to work itself through the system.

Then there’s the resurfacing of an event similar to the “Nasdaq whale” which is reported as Softbank acting like a hedge fund and buying as many big tech call options they could afford.

Softbank CEO has essentially turned his failed hedge fund named the Vision Fund from a start-up investor into a speculative hedge fund in risky option contracts solely betting on the rise of Silicon Valley tech in the age of the coronavirus.

After being burnt by Uber and WeWork, he finally decided to stay out of the messy acquisitions/seed funding and just speculative through derivatives from Tokyo.

The avalanche of options volume will no doubt cause the tech markets to become jittery and it certainly puts a floor under tech implied volatility for a while.

Retail investors have taken notice of this insane volume and largely stayed on the sideline.

At the apex of the madness, retail traders spent more than $511 billion in notional value on call options and that figure was slashed to $343 billion in the first week of October.

Retail traders tend to buy less-expensive short-dated contracts which tend to have greater convexity and ability to exacerbate share movements.

The level of risk-taking occurring in the public markets is at an all-time high.

Just look at America’s most elite university endowments who have slashed their exposure to the stock markets to the lowest levels since before the crash of 1929. And now they’re betting the ranch on secretive, illiquid, and high-risk private-equity funds and hedge funds.

A US teachers’ pension fund has sued Allianz Global Investors, accusing one of the world’s biggest asset managers of employing a “reckless strategy” that cost retirees almost $800m during this year’s market turmoil.

This is just one example of the high-risk strategies taking place with pension money.

In a lawsuit filed on Monday in New York, the Arkansas Teacher Retirement System claims that Alpha Funds, investment vehicles marketed by AllianzGI, had placed bets against an escalation of market volatility in an effort to recover losses they incurred from the same strategy in February.

So here we stand with derivative trading in tech options and general equity strategies leveraged to the hills that are betting on the system not breaking, or at least not breaking yet.

Even if the system reaches breaking point, many of these private investors are betting on governments to come rescue them perpetuating the feedback loop and offers a conundrum to savvy asset managers to miss or partake in the gaps up themselves.

 

 

tech option

 

tech option

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 9, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 9, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 31, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 31, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WALMART’S QUEST TO BECOME THE NEXT AMAZON)
(WMT), (MSFT), (ORCL), (GOOGL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-31 11:04:502020-08-31 17:09:12August 31, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Walmart's Quest to Become the Next Amazon

Tech Letter

U.S. tech is about to hit a 10-bagger when TikTok is set to choose between the Microsoft (MSFT)-Walmart hybrid offer or one from Oracle (ORCL) in the next 48 hours.

The network effect that will result from this purchase will be staggering and still underhyped in the mainstream media.

I am on record saying that Walmart is the new Fang, and their ambitions prove it.

Walmart (WMT) wanted to be the majority owner of TikTok, but the U.S. government wanted a technology company to be the lead investor.

I am not sure how that makes sense in an age where every company is a tech company.

Walmart was originally in a consortium with Google (GOOGL) before moving over in recent days to partner with Microsoft (MSFT) when it became clear the retailer would not be able to lead the deal.

Walmart is validating my thesis that it is a hybrid ecommerce company with its last earnings report 2 weeks ago.

In the company’s Q2 earnings, Walmart reported its U.S. ecommerce sales were up 97% — an increase attributed to more customers shopping online during the pandemic, stocking up on household supplies and shopping for grocery items online.

The TikTok deal first started with Walmart negotiating with SoftBank Chief Operating Officer Marcelo Claure.

SoftBank’s Claure believed Walmart’s all-American image and Google’s cloud computing infrastructure backbone could be a way in for the Japanese technology company.

The deal structure would have had Walmart as the lead buyer, with SoftBank and Alphabet acquiring minority stakes. One or two other minority holders held talks to join too but this ultimately was nixed by the U.S. government.

Walmart’s goal is to become the exclusive e-commerce and payments provider for TikTok and have access to user data to enhance those capabilities.

U.S. national security hawks need to save face by having a thoroughbred U.S. tech company lead the deal to show that this isn’t just about underhanded economic mercantilism.

Google could face significant antitrust opposition if it acquired TikTok’s U.S. assets.

Amazon is out of the picture too for anti-trust worries.

These concerns caused the consortium to crumble last week and led Walmart, which had become increasingly convinced that TikTok fits into its strategy, to partner with Microsoft on a bid instead.

TikTok is pondering which way to go – either the Microsoft-Walmart bid or a rival offer from Oracle. A deal, which is set to value TikTok’s U.S. operations in the $20 billion to $30 billion range, could be completed in the next 48 hours.

What does this mean for Walmart?

Walmart is hellbent on directly competing with Amazon prime for that same ecommerce market.

Walmart ecommerce sales now total more than $10 billion in quarterly U.S. ecommerce sales, exceeding 11.4% of the retail giant’s overall U.S. net sales for the first time.

The achievement reflects the ongoing shift toward online shopping amid the pandemic, and the increasingly fuzzy line between online and physical retail sales. It is also an example of the pandemic accelerating the shift to digital commerce at traditional brick-and-mortar retailers.

The timing isn’t a coincidence with Walmart on the verge of rolling out its own Amazon Prime service dubbed Walmart+.

Walmart’s new membership program is expected to cost $98/year, competing with Amazon’s $119/year Prime membership.

Amazon’s global online sales are 4.5X larger than Walmart’s at $45.9 billion for the quarter, up nearly 50%, and its physical retail sales were $3.8 billion, down 13% from the same period a year ago.

Walmart has significant headway to make before it comes close to Amazon Prime but there are fertile pastures in front of them, meaning I believe Walmart is a conviction buy at these levels.

At the bare minimum, this is a conspicuous sign of intent for Walmart that has successfully turned around the titanic and is a real time player in ecommerce.

They will be on the prowl for other tech purchases in the future as well as they certainly have the cash flow to pull the trigger on adding more tech talent to the lineup.

If Walmart reels in TikTok, I recommend long-term investors to buy Walmart as a tech growth asset and it is easily a $200 stock.

walmart ecommerce

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-31 11:02:002020-08-31 22:03:52Walmart's Quest to Become the Next Amazon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 27, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 27, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY YOU MISSED THE TECHNOLOGY BOOM AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT NOW),
(AAPL), (AMZN), (MSFT), (NVDA), (TSLA), (WFC), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-08-27 12:08:282020-08-27 12:23:54August 27, 2020
MHFTR

Why You Missed the Technology Boom and What to Do About It Now

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I often review the portfolios of new subscribers looking for fundamental flaws in their investment approach and it is not unusual for me to find some real disasters.

The Armageddon scenario was quite popular a decade ago. You know, the philosophy that said that the Dow ($INDU) was plunging to 3,000, the US government would default on its debt (TLT), and gold (GLD) was rocketing to $50,000 an ounce?

Those who stuck with the deeply flawed analysis that justified those conclusions saw their retirement funds turn to ashes.

Traditional value investors also fell into a trap. By focusing only on stocks with bargain-basement earnings multiples, low price to book values, and high visible cash flows, they shut themselves out of technology stocks, far and away the fastest growing sector of the economy.

If they are lucky, they picked up shares in Apple a few years ago when the earnings multiple was still down at ten. But even the Giant of Cupertino hasn’t been that cheap for years.

And here is the problem. Tech stocks defy analysis because traditional valuation measures don’t apply to them.

Let’s start with the easiest metric of all, that of sales. How do you measure the value of sales when a company gives away most of its services for free?

Take Google (GOOG) for example. I bet you all use it. How many of you have actually paid money to Google to use their search function? I would venture none.

What would you pay Google for search if you had to? What is it worth to you to have an instant global search function? Probably at least $100 a year. With 70% of the global search market comprising 2 billion users that means $140 billion a year of potential Google revenues are invisible.

Yes, the company makes a chunk of this back by charging advertisers access to these search users, generating some $38.94 Billion in revenues and $9.95 billion in net income in the most recent quarter. It would have been an $8.2 billion profit without the outrageous $5 billion fine from the European Community.

But much of the increased value of this company is passed on to shareholders not through rising profits or dividend payments but through an ever-rising share price. If you’re looking for dividends, Google doesn’t exist. It is also very convenient that unrealized capital gains are tax-free until the shares are sold.

I’ll tell you another valuation measure that investors have completely missed, that of community. The most successful companies don’t have just customers who buy stuff, they have a community of members who actively participate in a common vision, which is then monetized. There are countless communities out there now making fortunes, you just have to know how to spot them.

Facebook (FB) has created the largest community of people who are willing to share personal information. This permits the creation of affinity groups centered around specific interests, from your local kids’ school activities to municipality emergency alerts, to your preferred political party.

This creates a gigantic network effect that increases the value of Facebook. Each person who joins (FB) makes it worth more, raising the value of the shares, even though they haven’t paid it a penny. Again, it’s advertisers who are footing your tab.

Tesla (TSLA) has 400,000 customers willing to lend it $400 billion for free in the form of deposits on future car purchases because they also share in the vision of a carbon-free economy. When you add together the costs of initial purchase, fuel, and maintenance savings, a new Tesla Model 3 is now cheaper than a conventional gasoline-powered car over its entire life.

REI, a privately held company, actively cultivates buyers of outdoor equipment, teaches them how to use it, then organizes trips. It will then pursue you to the ends of the earth with seasonal discount sales. Whole Foods (WFC), now owned by Amazon (AMZN), does the same in the healthy eating field.

If you spend a lot of your free time in these two stores, as I do, The United States is composed entirely of healthy, athletic, good looking, and long-lived people.

There is another company you know well that has grown mightily thanks to the community effect. That would be the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, one of the fastest growing online financial services firms of the past decade.

We have succeeded not because we are good at selling newsletters, but because we have built a global community of like-minded investors with a common shared vision around the world, that of making money through astute trading and investment.

We produce daily research services covering global financial markets, like Global Trading Dispatch and the Mad Hedge Technology Letter. We teach you how to monetize this information with our books like Stocks to Buy for the Coming Roaring Twenties and the Mad Hedge Options Training Course.

We then urge you to action with our Trade Alerts. If you want more hands-on support, you can upgrade to the Concierge Service. You can also meet me in person to discuss your personal portfolios at my Global Strategy Luncheons.

The luncheons are great because long term Mad Hedge veterans trade notes on how best to use the service and inform me on where to make improvements. It’s a blast.

The letter is self-correcting. When we make a mistake, readers let us know in 60 seconds and we can shoot out a correction immediately. The services evolve on a daily basis.

It all comes together to enable customers to make up to  50% to 60% a year on their retirement funds. And guess what? The more money they make, the more products and services they buy from me. This is why I have so many followers who have been with me for a decade or more. And some of my best ideas come from my own subscribers.

So, if you missed technology now, what should you do about it? Recognize what the new game is and get involved. Microsoft (MSFT) with the fastest-growing cloud business offers good value here. Amazon looks like it will eventually hit my $3,000 target. You want to be buying graphics card and AI company NVIDIA (NVDA) on every 10% dip.

You can buy the breakouts now to get involved, or patiently wait until the 10% selloff that usually follows blowout quarterly earnings.

My guess is that tech stocks still have to double in value before their market capitalization of 26% matches their 50% share of US profits. And the technologies are ever hyper-accelerating. That leaves a lot of upside even for the new entrants.

 

 

 

 

 

I Finally Found Tech Stocks!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/John-Thomas.png 566 392 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2020-08-27 12:02:072020-08-27 12:23:30Why You Missed the Technology Boom and What to Do About It Now
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 26, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 26, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE EMPTY PIPELINE OF TECH INNOVATION)
(AAPL), (FB), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (NFLX), (TSLA), (SNAP), (MSFT), (ORCL), (TWTR)

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