Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IT'S NOT HEAVEN FOR ALL CLOUD STOCKS)
(ORCL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (CRM), (GOOGL)
Posts
Below please find subscribers' Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader June 20 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.
As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!
Q: What are your thoughts on Square (SQ) as a credit spread or buyout proposition?
A: I love Square long term, and I think there's another double in it. They were a takeover target, but now the stock's getting so expensive it may not be worth it. So, Square is a buy. However, look for a summer sell-off to get into a new position.
Q: The FANGs feel a little bubbly here; will they pull back on a market dip?
A: Yes, my entire portfolio of FANG options is designed to expire on the July 20th expiration. In fact, I may even come out before then as we reach the maximum profit point on these option call spreads. Then look for a summer meltdown to get back in. The FANGs could double from here. If I am wrong they will just continue to go straight up.
Q: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has a new CEO; are you concerned?
A: Absolutely not, I love Palo Alto networks, as well as the (FEYE) FireEye. It's just a question of getting in at the right price. It's one of the many ballistic stocks in Tech this year that we've been recommending for a long time. Hacking an online theft is never going to go out of style.
Q: Is it time to sell Facebook (FB)?
A: Yes, if you're a trader. No, if you're a long-term investor. There's another double in it. You're going to have natural profit taking on all of these Techs for the short-term, and possibly for the summer, because they've just had enormous runs. If you aren't in the FANGs this year, you basically don't have any performance because almost all of the rest of the market has gone down.
Q: What are your thoughts on Lam Research (LRCX)?
A: The whole chip sector has had two big sell-offs this year because of their China exposure and the trade wars. Expect more to come. China gets 80% of their chips from the U.S. This is normal at the end of a 10-year bull market. It's also normal when a sector transitions from highly cyclical to secular, which is what's happening in the chip sector. Twice the volatility gets you twice the returns.
Q: Would you stay away from Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA), Momo Inc.(MOMO), IQ (IQ), and Baidu (BIDU)?
A: I have stayed away because of the trade war fears, and it was the completely wrong thing to do, because they've gone up as much as our Tech stocks, except for the last week. So yes, I would be buying dips on these big Chinese Tech stocks, because they are drinking the same Kool Aid as our Techs, and it's working.
Q: I hear that short selling of volatility is coming back; is that a good thing?
A: Actually, it is a good thing, because it creates buyers on these dips when you had no short sellers left. The entire industry got wiped out in February creating $8 billion in losses. There was no one left to cover those shorts and support the market. Of course, the result was we got a lower low down here because of that. It's always better to have a two-way market to get a real price. Now professionals are sneaking back in on the short side, which is as it should be. This should never have been a retail product.
Q: Why are international markets so disconnected from the U.S.? Many Asian markets are down heavily while the U.S. are up.
A: The U.S. stock market benefits from a rising dollar and rising interest rates, whereas international markets suffer. When you have weak currencies in the emerging markets, people sell their stocks to avoid the currency hit, and that takes the emerging markets down massively. A lot of emerging market companies have their debts denominated in U.S. dollars, so they get killed by a strong greenback. Also, the emerging markets make a lot of money selling goods into China, so when the Chinese economy gets attacked by the U.S. and growth slows, it has the byproduct of attacking all our other allies in Southeast Asia.
Q: Is it a good idea to sell everything for the summer and just de-risk for my portfolio?
A: That's what I'm doing. Summer trading is usually horrible, and now we're going into the summer at close to a high for the year, with a terrible political backdrop and possible economic growth peaking right here. So, yes, it's a good time to sit back, count your money, and maybe even spend some of it on a European vacation.
Q: When do you think the yield curve will invert?
A: In a year, and that is typically when you get a peaking of economic growth and the stock market.
Q: Is the Fed's faster-than-expected desire to raise rates good for equities, or will investors likely sell this news as quantitative tightening continues?
A: Short-term they will buy the market on rising rates, they always do at the early part of an interest rate rising cycle. They sell stocks when you get to the middle or the end of a rate rising cycle.
Q: Do you think large Tech stocks are expensive here?
A: No, I think the Large-Cap Tech stocks can potentially double here. It can take another year to year and a half to do it, and if they don't do it in this cycle they will certainly do it in the next one, after the next recession in the 2020s. So, long term you want to think FANG, FANG, FANG, TECH, TECH, TECH. You really shouldn't have anything else in the long term, except for maybe Biotech, where you can now get in at a multiyear low.
Q: Can I buy a chip company like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), or should I buy a cloud company, like Microsoft (MSFT)?
A: I would go with the Cloud company. The innovation there is incredible. Cloud is growing like the Internet itself was growing on its own in 1995, and with chip stocks like (AMD), you're going to get much higher volatility, but more gain. So, pick your poison. But I would go with the Cloud plays.
Q: Can we watch the recorded version of this webinar later?
A: Yes, we post the webinar on our website a couple hours later, if you're a paid subscriber.
Q: What about the CRISPR stocks?
A: They are a screaming buy right now, buy Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) on the dip. The paper that triggered the sell-off saying that CRISPR causes cancer is complete BS.
Q: Only 30 million in Bitcoin was stolen in South Korea so will that still have an impact?
A: Yes, but there have been countless other hacks this year and the total loss is well over $500 million. In addition, Bitcoin is now down 70% from its December top so not all is well in cryptocurrency land.
Q: Should we expect any Trade Alerts before August 8?
A: Yes, some of my best trades have been done while only vacation. I once sold short the Euro (FXE) from the back of a camel in Morocco. Another time, I bought the S&P 500 (SPY) while hanging from a cliff face on the Matterhorn. Both of those made good money.
Q: Will the S&P 500 reach new highs before the end of the year?
A: Yes, once you get the election out of the way, that removes a huge amount of uncertainty from the market. If we could end our trade war before then, I think you're looking at another 10-15% in gains from this level by the end of the year. That takes you to an (SPX) of 3,100 by the end of 2018, which was my January 1 prediction.
Q: What does all the heavy mergers and acquisition activity mean for the market?
A: It means fewer stocks are left to trade. Stock shortages leads to higher prices, always, so it is a big market positive this year
Good Luck and Good Trading.
John Thomas
CEO and Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
The year of the Cloud takes no prisoners.
Cloud stocks have been on a tear resiliently combating the leaky macro environment.
Many of my cloud recommendations have been outright winners such as Salesforce (CRM).
However, there are some unfortunate losers I must dredge up for the masses.
Oracle (ORCL) announced quarterly earnings and it was a real head-scratcher.
I have been banging on the table to ditch this legacy tech company since the inception of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
It was the April 10, 2018 tech letter where I prodded readers to stay away from this stock like the black plague.
At the time, the stock was trading at $45, click here to revisit the story "Why I'm Passing on Oracle."
The first quarter was disappointing and abysmal guidance of 1% to 3% for annual total revenue topped off a generally underwhelming cloud forecast.
Investors spotlight one part of the business requiring the utmost care and nurturing - its cloud business.
The second quarter was Oracle's chance to revive itself demonstrating to investors it is serious about its cloud direction.
What did management do?
They announced a screeching halt to the reporting of cloud revenue and it would avoid reporting on specific segments going forward.
Undoubtedly, something is wrong behind the scenes.
To withdraw financial transparency is indicative of Oracle's failure to pivot to the cloud and this has been my No. 1 gripe with Oracle.
It is simply getting pummeled by the competition of Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).
Stuck with an aging legacy business focused on database software, transformation has been elusive.
To erect a giant cloak around its cloud business means that growth is far worse than initially thought to the point where it is better to sweep it under the carpet.
Instead of taking a direct hit on the chin, management decided to wriggle itself out of the accountability of bad cloud numbers.
A glaringly bad cloud business should be the cue for management to kitchen sink the whole quarter and start afresh from a lower base.
The preference to shroud itself with opaqueness is bad management. Period.
Instead of turning over a new leaf, Oracle could be penalized on future earnings reports for the way it reports financials for the simple reason it confuses analysts.
Wars were fought for less.
Bad management runs bad companies. The stock has floundered while other cloud stocks have propelled to new heights - another canary in the coal mine.
Amazon and Netflix are two examples of tech growth stocks that have celebrated all-time highs.
Even rogue ad seller Facebook broke to all-time highs lately.
The champagne is flowing for the top-level tech companies.
As expected, Oracle was punished heavily upon this news with the stock down almost 8% intraday to $42.70, and it sits throttled at $43.60 as I write this.
Diverting attention from the cloud will mire this stock in the malaise it deserves. Shielding its investors from the only numbers that really matter will give analysts a great reason to label this dinosaur stock with sell ratings.
Analysts are usually horrific stock predictors, but they will be able to wash their hands of this beleaguered stock.
Even if the stock goes up, analysts will still be geared toward sell ratings.
Oracle reported a $1.7 billion in total cloud revenue last quarter, a disappointing 9% increase QOQ.
Oracle's cloud revenue is only up 25% YOY.
For an up and coming cloud business, the minimum threshold to please investors is 20% QOQ, and the 9% QOQ expansion will do nothing to get investors excited.
The deceleration of growth is frightening for investors to stomach and Oracle's admission the cloud business is uncompetitive will detract many potential buyers from dipping in at these levels.
In short, Oracle is not growing much. There is no reason to buy this stock.
I always divert subscribers into the most innovative tech stocks because they are most in demand from investors.
Innovative inertia has reverberated through the corridors at its massive complex in Redwood City, California.
A major shake out in product development and business strategy is vital for Oracle clawing back to relevance.
This is the fourth sequential quarter with unhealthy guidance.
Much of the weakness comes from Amazon siphoning business out of Oracle.
Completed surveys suggest the conversion to AWS has one clear loser and that is Oracle.
Cloud vendors are now ramping up their smorgasbord of cloud offerings attracting more business.
The second and third cloud players, Alphabet and Microsoft, have been particularly active in M&A, attempting to make a run at AWS for pole position.
It is most likely that Oracle's capital spending will dip from $2 billion in 2017 to $1.8 billion in 2018.
Considering Salesforce spent $6.5 billion on MuleSoft, a software company integrating applications, an annual $1.8 billion capital expenditure outlay is a pittance and shows that Oracle is functioning at a pitiful scale.
Oracle won't be able to make any noteworthy transactions with such a miniscule budget.
Without enhancing its cloud offerings, Oracle will fall further behind the vanguard exacerbating cloud deceleration.
Oracle pinpointed data center expansion as the targeted cloud segment after which they would chase. Oracle will quadruple two data centers in the next two years.
One of the data centers will be placed in China collaborating with Tencent Holdings Limited to satisfy government rules requiring outsiders partnering with local companies.
Saudi Arabia is locked in for a data center, desperate to attract more tech ingenuity to the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia's iconic state-owned oil giant will form an "Aramco-Google partnership focused on national cloud services and other technology opportunities."
It will be interesting going forward to analyze the stoutness of the data center commentary considering foes such as Alphabet are boosting spending.
Alphabet quarterly spend tripled to $7.56 billion QOQ including the $2.4 billion snag of New York's Chelsea Market skyscraper Google will spin into new offices.
Alphabet has splurged on $30 billion on digital infrastructure alone in the past three years.
That bump up in infrastructure spending is to support the spike in computer power needed for the surging growth across Alphabet's ecosystem.
Apparently, Oracle is not experiencing the same surge.
If investors start to question global growth, investors will migrate into the top-grade names and the marginal names such as Oracle will be taken behind the woodshed and beaten into submission.
Oracle is much more of a sell the rally than buy the dip stock fueled by its growth deceleration challenges.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"If you don't have a mobile strategy, you're in deep turd," - said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 19, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRAVIS IS BACK!),
(UBER), (RDFN), (Z), (LEN), (CRM), (MSFT), (AAPL)
Travis Kalanick is back in full force after his Uber fiasco.
His creation kicked him to the curb preferring a more rigid approach to corporate governance as the 2019 IPO draws closer.
It didn't take much time for him to take stock of his piggy bank.
Yes, the $1.4 billion payout he received means he has nothing to do with Uber anymore.
Some piggy bank.
Travis intends to wield this wad aggressively using his new fund "10100" as his finance vehicle to pounce on hot, new tech names.
Travis doesn't know any other way, and investors should be alert to where he turns to find his new Uber and his new baby.
Future foes should understand Kalanick is one of the most feared disruptors on the face of the earth.
He co-founded Uber in 2009 growing it into the premier transportation platform.
The whirlwind few years launched him from a nobody to one of the premier tech names in Silicon Valley.
So, what's the deal?
What I can tell you is that house prices are about to get a whole lot pricier and there is nothing you can do about it.
Travis Kalanick's investment into house flipping app Opendoor will be the first stage of a torrential stampede of tech capital flowing into this sector.
More importantly, it's a sign of intent by Kalanick.
The real estate industry is the unequivocal prehistoric dinosaur that hasn't changed for decades.
It's almost a matter of time before the process of buying a house becomes digitized, either partially or fully.
Remember, Uber functions as a broker app matching drivers and passengers through a platform built on algorithmic software.
It would make logical sense for tech companies to attack the low-hanging fruit - meaning every industry that places brokers at the heart of business.
The broker app software is tried and tested with a gold stamp of approval. It works, and tech executives understand how to monetize the data.
Traditional brokers would get pummeled in this scenario, as the data applied to a new real estate broker app would eclipse anything a real human would be able to accomplish removing human error.
Real estate is next on disruption pecking order, and tech is coming for its bacon because of the huge sums of money associated with American real estate.
The real estate industry is not a scooter sharing business and requires boat loads of money to get ahead.
Tech has the cash but needs to figure out execution and its future road map.
The bulk of tech capital has been funneled into M&A that has seen tech companies pay multiples above what were guessed as fair value.
Share buybacks have been another hot source of investment.
Opendoor is a house-flipping firm intent on changing the status quo.
The business model entails snapping up distress properties, fixing them up, and selling them for a profit.
Opendoor receives a 6% commission for facilitating this whole process.
Opendoor has already served 20,000 customers saving more than 400,000 of prep time.
It is already on the hook for $1.5 billion in loans. SoftBank's vision fund is knocking on the door eager to become the next investor.
In 2016, this company was valued at $1 billion and after the latest round of financing giving Opendoor another $325 million, that number has crept up to $2 billion.
I have heard from solid sources that the SoftBank capital could be delivered in the next few months, likely paying another solid premium boosting tech valuations across the board.
Paying up has been a universal theme in 2018.
Microsoft's (MSFT) purchase of GitHub and Salesforce's (CRM) purchase of MuleSoft seem like overpaying but appear cheap in hindsight.
With the new cash ready to deploy, Opendoor seeks to expand to 50 cities by 2020, a swift upward jolt from its current 10 cities.
Not only will tier 1 cities feel the brunt of this new development, Opendoor plans to go into the lesser known cities and plans to double its staff from 650 to 1,300 in the upcoming year.
Kalanick caught onto this investment opportunity after one of his former Uber minions, Gautam Gupta, made the jump to Opendoor as COO and liaised CEO Eric Wu with Kalanick to hash out a deal.
It's nice to have friends in high places as Kalanick knows very well.
Even traditional home builders are getting in on the venture capitalist act.
Lennar was one of the investors in the latest round of Opendoor investment, underscoring the existential threat these traditional companies face.
It makes more sense to partner now and form a budding relationship than get utterly wiped out down the road.
Uber hopes to deploy this strategy with Waymo as Kalanick's former company knows it will never possess superior self-driving technology over Waymo.
The Lennar investment also gave Jon Jaffe, the COO of home builder Lennar, a seat on Opendoor's board.
Opendoor is the first serious tech foray into the housing business. It is initiating business on the periphery by focusing on fixer uppers.
This will allow Opendoor to cut its teeth and learn more about the industry before it migrates into higher margin business such as downtown condos that Millennials love.
A swift migration of other tech names will briskly follow into this undisrupted industry if Opendoor can pry open its floodgates.
Fixing up distressed houses is the gateway into brokering and the holy grail of constructing.
Tech could eventually wipe out everyone and control the whole process just like what investors have seen in the transportation industry.
I can imagine a future where tech companies will be the best firms to construct smart houses, which all houses will eventually become.
One massive aftereffect is that the average quality of housing will rise dramatically in all metropolitan areas.
Once the data amasses, Opendoor will be able to identify every property from where it can extract value allowing America to transform into a nation of pristine, smart houses.
Renovating a house and selling it will boost the prices of current houses.
Effectively, tech with gentrify housing creating higher quality but higher priced properties.
Millennials, who have had an awful time jumping on the property ladder, will have an even more difficult task finding a starter home if every starter house turns into a beautiful Tuscan-styled villa from a shabby shed.
Vice-versa, beautiful Tuscan-styled villas that cannot be "flipped" will become smart homes creating even more demand for IoT smart products and higher prices per square foot.
Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capitalist firm based in Menlo Park, California, has been one of the avant-garde tech investors seizing stakes in Twitter, Facebook, Skype, Coinbase, and Lyft.
And these were just some of its investments before 2014!
An industry where Travis Kalanick, SoftBank, and Andreesen Horowitz are piling in must have real estate agents shivering in their wake.
If the general trend keeps up, the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett could be next on this powerful list.
He usually likes to buy things he understands with healthy cash flow. I am sure he understands real estate more than Apple (AAPL), in which he had no problem investing.
Traditional home builders and real estate agents aren't the only players that could be left in the dust.
Zillow (Z), the online real estate database company, reacting from the Opendoor threat launched its new business to buy and sell homes.
It was only three years ago that Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff determinedly hunkered down telling investors "we sell ads, not houses."
Innovation, tech disruption, and competition changes everything.
The stock sold off hard due to the exorbitant costs related to buying homes on the announcement of buying and selling houses.
Margins will get massacred in this scenario, but I applaud the decision to move up higher on the value chain diminishing the existential threat.
This whole industry is about to be flipped on its head, and the winners will be the most innovative companies that incorporate data best.
Rascoff further expanded saying, "I can say without exaggeration, that no company understands the American homebuyer and home seller better than Zillow Group."
Zillow is 12 years old and the12-year treasury trove of data will give it an optimal chance to pivot from selling ads to buying and selling houses.
Seattle-based Redfin (RDFN), Zillow's arch nemesis competitor founded in 2004, has an even larger treasure trove of data dating back 14-plus years and has moved in the same direction.
Redfin was anointed the top tech company to work for in Seattle in 2017 by Hired.com.
There is enormous potential to add another monstrous business to Redfin and Zillow's top line.
The real estate industry is next in line to be digitized, and the Mad Hedge Technology Letter will be the first to know when it's time to dip your toe in.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"As a tech entrepreneur, I try to push the limits. Pedal to the metal," - said former cofounder of Uber Travis Kalanick.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THREE RULES FOR JACK DORSEY),
(TWTR), (SQ), (MSFT), (FB)
I am Jack Dorsey's biggest fan.
If he has an entourage, I would like to be part of it.
Even if he just needs a chauffeur, I would be willing to drive for free just to pick up little pearls of wisdom percolating through his brain.
He is perhaps the biggest name outside the vaunted FANG group that is not Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella.
The special Jack Dorsey issue (click here for the link http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/a-straight-line-to-profits-with-square/) gloating about his company Square was not a misjudgment.
I am supremely bullish on his other company Twitter (TWTR) too.
Like I said last time about Dorsey, do not bet against Jack Dorsey.
Rule No. 2 don't bet against Jack Dorsey.
If he has a heartbeat, then success will follow him wherever he goes.
Dorsey co-founded Twitter in 2006 and was sacked, later to return in a blaze of glory seven years later ala Steve Jobs.
Evan Williams, the other co-founder of Twitter, got rid of Jack after he found out Jack slipped out of work each day at 6 p.m. for drawing classes, hot yoga sessions, and fashion classes where he learned how to design mini-skirts.
Williams reportedly told Dorsey, "You can either be a dressmaker or the CEO of Twitter, but you can't be both."
Williams replaced Dorsey as the CEO of Twitter in 2007.
Dorsey's dismissal led him to Mark Zuckerberg's doorstep where he was practically hired at the Menlo Park offices but could not find a suitable role at the company.
What a legendary exclusion if there ever was one!
Out of options at the time, Dorsey summoned his inner genius and created a new company named Square (SQ) in 2009. Ironically, he was rehired at Twitter as CEO in 2015 and currently runs both companies at the same time.
Apparently, his dressmaking career died before it could take off.
Dorsey is such a stud, he does not even have an office or a desk at his corporate offices.
He simply roams around the office wielding an iPad solving problems that need solving.
He starts his day at Twitter and walks across the street to Square after lunch.
How convenient!
In 2015, Twitter was having growing pains. User growth stagnated in Q4 2015 at 305 million users, down from the 307 million users in Q3.
Management wrote an investment letter promising it will "fix the broken windows and confusing parts" and boy, did they.
Fast forward to today and Twitter just nailed down its second profitable quarter in a row. Monthly active users (MAU) topped 336 million in Q1 2018, up from 330 million in Q4 2017.
Management projects (MAU) to increase at a nice 6% per year clip.
The lion's share of the growth derives from the mass migration of advertisement dollars to social media platforms, the same reason why Facebook (FB) harvests spectacular profits.
Video content has transformed into a robust growth engine carving out more than half of Twitter's revenue.
This is something that never could have been envisaged in 2015. As the quality of broadband develops, more video will be splashed across its platform.
Twitter considers video as a vital part of the road map moving forward.
Video is a better way for advertisers to engage users. Plain and simple.
Summer projects to be an exciting one with the biggest entertainment every four years, the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia, set to invigorate Twitter feeds throughout the world.
America missed out on World Cup qualification on the last day of qualifiers because it could not salvage a draw against a second-string Trinidad and Tobago team.
It doesn't matter.
Eyeballs will be glued to the matches in Russia and the audience will vent, cry for joy, and express their emotions on Twitter feeds.
Live events energize Twitter feeds, and advertisers will be throwing money at Twitter to put themselves in the store window for targeted Twitter followers.
Twitter will stream every goal from the World Cup, which is a nice coup.
In total, Twitter has 30 live partnerships and hopes to expand.
MLB, Major League Soccer, and People TV are other live programming that will integrate with Twitter's live feed.
Twitter's total ad revenue is expected to grow by 6% in 2018, which is a nice feather in its cap compared to 2017 when revenue dipped by 6%.
As the pie for ad revenue grows, it will not be one winner takes all.
Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Twitter are strategically positioned to benefit from this mass migration to digital ad spend.
Twitter is a unique product that cannot be undermined. The platform is the mouthpiece for every notable person in their world to speak their piece.
No other platform gains this type of trust from the elite in the world.
That won't change anytime soon.
What's more, Twitter has morphed into a reliable news feed. Its nimbleness is reflected with breaking news flowing into the Twitter channels first, even before the traditional news media can get a sniff.
The agility of tech companies continues to be a huge competitive advantage versus the stalwarts of antiquity that move at sloth-like speeds.
Dorsey epitomizes this ethos by his systematic efficiency, making him view a corner office as a physical and psychological barrier to preventing him from success.
Financials back up my diagnosis. Total revenue increased last quarter 21% YOY.
Twitter has little exposure to data regulations as the data is posted in the public. It does not sell any individual personal information.
A year and a half of continuous double-digit daily active user (DAU) growth resonates with advertisers.
Twitter continues to enhance the core products and executes in fine fashion. This outperformance feeds back into the quality of products basking in advertisers' satisfaction.
Moving forward, expect video to extract a higher percentage of revenue because of the attractiveness to advertisers.
In addition, expect moderate growth from daily active users and more live events integrated into the Twitter platform.
Video has been a salient reason for the great success in the past year and a half. The Twitter management, led by Dorsey, has a great handle on the steps it must take going forward.
Jack Dorsey is the preeminent CEO of his day. A bigger problem is finding an entry point into Twitter or Square.
Granted, Twitter climbed from a low base after Dorsey was reinstalled in 2015 as the CEO. It took him a few years to figure out how to briskly execute and to harness the potential of Twitter.
Both companies have shot to the moon in 2018. Waiting for macro sell-offs to get into these stocks makes more sense than chasing the fumes.
Dorsey is on record saying Square will be bigger than Twitter because it speaks the language everyone understands - money.
Twitter, Square, and Jack Dorsey are the real deal.
Rule No. 3: Don't bet against Jack.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"You are the product on Facebook, Facebook is a data company by its very nature of mass surveillance, collective manipulation and hacking the attention economy for profit," - said cofounder of Apple Steve Wozniak when talking about Facebook's business model.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 11, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HERE ARE SOME GREAT SECOND-TIER CLOUD PLAYS TO SALT AWAY),
(DOCU), (ZUO), (ZS), (MSFT), (AMZN)
The year of the cloud has been one of the most successful themes for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter since inception and rightly so.
The heavy hitters are knocking it out of the park with the top gangbuster firms facing no impediment to success.
As these firms crack on, it seems there is not a day that passes by where Amazon (AMZN) or Microsoft (MSFT) do not close up 1% for the day.
If you are feeling nervous and believe the top cloud plays are getting too frothy for your taste, even though they are not, it is time to look at alternative parts of the cloud ecosphere that could tickle your fancy.
The second-tier cloud companies focusing on a particular niche of the market is the perfect place to identify companies that are growing at higher rates than the top cloud companies in terms of revenue expansion.
Amazon, because of its sheer size, will find it harder to double its revenue in the same amount of time as cloud companies with annual revenue of just a few hundred million dollars.
Zscaler (ZS) is a cloud security company that I advised readers to buy on April,16, at $29 and after a blowout quarterly report the stock touched the $42 handle intraday.
This company is a solid buy, especially in light of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and a newfound, broad-based emphasis on Internet security that will usher in a new injection of cloud security spending.
Zscaler CEO Jay Chaudhry delivered a glorious quarterly performance and the only direction this company is going is up.
All told, Zscaler processes in excess of 45 billion Internet requests per day during peak periods.
It detects and blocks more than 100 million daily threats while performing more than 120,000 unique daily security updates.
The end result is far superior security than traditional outlets. That's the whole point.
The cloud security company was able to inspire business to a 49% YOY pace of growth and calculated billings were up 73% YOY to $54.7 million.
The quarter's success didn't stop there with operating margins gaining 9% YOY helping Zscaler go cash free positive for the quarter.
The type of security products it offers is part of an annual $17.7 billion market and rapidly expanding.
Firms are incentivized to adopt these products because reduced cost on bandwidth and lower network equipment costs benefit the bottom line.
A mobile dominant world is fast approaching, and Zscaler has positioned itself perfectly to take advantage of the new pipeline of business coming its way.
The slew of new signed contracts reinforces this trend.
The most prominent deals were with a Fortune 500 medical equipment company that purchased a bundle including a Cloud Firewall, Sandbox and Data Loss Prevention for 40,000 users.
It followed that up with a deal with a European bank that added the business bundle with SSL inspection and data loss prevention (DLP) for more than 70,000 users driven by the business moving to Office 365.
Zscaler kept going strong with another Fortune 500 tech company joining its lineup, integrating the transformation bundle for 20,000 employees and contractors just six months ago,
They were thrilled with the products, leading them to buy an additional 25,000 seats and now have all 45,000 employees served by Zscaler.
A global 500 IT services and products company in Asia went for the entry level professional bundle covering10,000 users in Q2.
It expanded the next quarter with the same bundle for more than 130,000 users domestically.
Forecasted revenue is expected to be in the range of $184 million to $185 million, substantially larger than the $126 million of revenue in 2017.
Once annual revenues start eclipsing the several billion-dollar mark, growth becomes tougher to grind out.
Zscaler is headed by an old hand and understands the market in detail.
The firm will be in a growth sweet spot for the foreseeable future. Subscribers who do not mind taking on the added risk could expect these investments to pay off many times over.
Another niche cloud company Zuora (ZUO) is performing briskly.
I recommended this stock the same day as Zscaler when it was trading at $20.50. The stock is up big, rocketing to $28.50 at the time of this writing.
Zuora is a company focused on software that helps companies manage their subscriptions business, which has been all the rage for tech companies.
The software as a service (SaaS) model has become the de-facto standard to bill for tech services, and Zuora helps automate and execute.
First quarter revenue surged 60% to $51.7 million.
Zuora's retention rate of 110% increased to 112%, demonstrating that existing customers buy premium add-ons and stick around in its ecosystem.
Zuora increased the numbers of clients with an active contract value greater than $100,000 by 6% to 441, resulting in a net add of 26.
Zscaler and Zuora are around the same size and could experience similar bullish price trajectories in the stock going forward.
DocuSign (DOCU), a digital signature software company, is another niche player whose services have been valuable in the business environment.
Instead of scrawling out your name with a quill and ink, clicking to sign makes the process faster than ever.
The stickiness of its services led Forbes to anoint DocuSign as the fourth best cloud company on the Forbes Cloud 100 list in 2017.
Last year saw DocuSign blow past the half a billion-number bringing in revenue of $518 million, up 36% YOY.
The lion's share of its business comes from its subscription business carving out $484 million in 2017, passing the $348 million in 2016.
DocuSign set an IPO price range between $24 to $26 in April 2018, and the stock has more than doubled to $58 today.
Do not fight against the cloud; embrace it like your lovable pet dog. There is no reason to short these stocks because chances are likely you will get badly burned on these ultimate buy on the dip stocks.
However, DocuSign has seldom even dipped, even in the face of a trade war, crushing dip buyers' dreams.
It has gone up in a straight line.
Only once since its late April IPO has there been a pullback of more than $1.50, and that happened in mid-May when the stock went from $45.50 to $43.
Remember, the trend is your friend.
Zscaler's 37% bump to its share prices after the earnings beat is why you want to get into this stock.
The moves up are legendary.
Zuora's earnings beat earned them a not-too-shabby 20% one-day return as well.
No matter how well Amazon does, there is no 37% up move in one day unless it finds the cure for cancer in a single pill form.
As Amazon and Microsoft grow stronger, so does the appetite for these niche cloud services.
The tide will lift all boats and choosing either a dinghy or a luxury yacht will stand you in good stead.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"I don't care about revenues," - said Cofounder and Executive Chairman of Alibaba Jack Ma.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 6, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SHOULD MICROSOFT BE A FANG?),
(MSFT), (AAPL), (AMZN), (MU), (GOOGL)
