Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 21, 2019
(HUAWEI HITS THE FAN)
(HUAWEI), (MU), (NVDA), (GOOGL), (FB), (TWTR), (APPL)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 21, 2019
(HUAWEI HITS THE FAN)
(HUAWEI), (MU), (NVDA), (GOOGL), (FB), (TWTR), (APPL)
If you ever needed a signal to stay away from chip stocks short-term, then the Huawei ban by the American administration was right on cue.
Huawei, the largest telecommunications company in China, is heavily dependent on U.S. semiconductor parts and would be seriously damaged without an ample supply of key U.S. components
The surgical U.S. ban may cause China and Huawei to push back its 5G network build until the ban is lifted while having an impact on many global component suppliers.
The Chinese communist party has exhibited a habit for retaliation and could target Apple (AAPL) who is squarely in their crosshairs after this provocative move.
At a national security level, depriving Huawei of U.S. semiconductor components now is still effective as China’s chip industry is still 5 years behind the Americans.
China has a national mandate to develop and surpass the U.S. chip industry and denying them the inner guts to build out their 5G network will have long-lasting ramifications around the world.
Starting with American chip companies, they will send chip companies such as Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) into the bargain basement where investors will be able to discount shop at generational lows because of a monumental drop in annual revenue.
Even worse for these firms, Huawei anticipated this move and stocked itself full of chips for an extra 3 months, meaning they were not going to increase shipments in a meaningful way in the short-term anyway.
This kills the chip trade for the rest of the first half of 2019, and once again backs up my thesis in avoiding hardware firms with Chinese exposure.
Alphabet (GOOGL) has cut ties with cooperating with Huawei and that means software and the apps that are built around the software too.
Gmail, YouTube, Google Maps and Chrome will be removed from future Huawei smartphones, and even though this doesn’t amount to much in mainland China, this is devastating for markets in Eastern Europe and Huawei smartphone owners in the European Union who absolutely rely on many of these Google-based apps and view Chinese smartphones as a viable alternative to high-end Apple phones.
Users who own an existing Huawei device with access to the Google Play Store will be able to download app updates from Google now, but these same users will not consider Huawei phones in the future when the Google Play Store is banned forcing them to go somewhere else for the new upgrade cycle.
The fallout further bifurcates the China and American tech ecosystems.
I would argue that China had already banned Google, Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), and marginalized Amazon (AMZN) before the trade war even started.
The American government is merely putting in place the same measures the Chinese communist party has had in place for years against foreign competition.
The recent ban on Huawei was a proactive response to China backing away from negotiations that they already had verbally agreed upon after hawks inside the Chinese communist party gained the upper hand in the tireless fight against the reformist.
These hawks want to preserve the status quo because they benefit directly from the current system and economic structure in place.
The American administration appears to have taken on an even more aggressive tone with the Chinese, as the resulting tariffs are putting even more stress on the Chinese hawks.
However, there is only so much bending they can do until a full-scale fissure occurs and debt rated “A” which is its third-highest classification has recently been slashed to a negative outlook as the tariff headwinds pile up.
The U.S. administration could further delve into its party bag by rebanning Chinese tech firm ZTE who almost folded after the first ban of U.S. semiconductor components.
The U.S. administration is emboldened to play the hand they have now because as long as Chinese tech need U.S. chips, the ball is in the American’s court and going on the offensive now would be more effective than if they carried out the same strategy in the future.
China is clearly attempting to delay the process enough to get to the point where they can install their own in-house chips and can say adios to America and the chips they currently rely on.
It’s doubtful at the current pace of escalation if China can survive until that point in time.
How will China react?
Massive easing and dovishness by the Chinese central bank will be needed to maintain stability and remedy the economy.
The manufacturing sector will face another wave of mass layoffs and debt pressures will inch up.
Chinese exports will get slashed with international corporations looking to move elsewhere to stop the hemorrhaging and rid itself of uncertainty.
Many Chinese tech companies will have entire divisions disrupted and even shut down because of the lack of hardware needed to operate their businesses.
Imagine attempting to construct a smartphone without chips, almost like building a plane to fly without wings.
This is also an easy to decode message to corporate America letting them know that if they haven’t moved their supply chains out of China yet, then time is almost up.
Going forward, I do not envision any meaningful foreign tech supply chain that could survive operating in mainland China because nationalistic forces will aim for revenge sooner or later.
There are many positives to this story as the provocative decision has been carried out during a time when the American economy is fiercely strong and firing on all cylinders.
Unemployment is spectacularly low at 3.6%, the lowest rate since 1969, while wage growth has accelerated to 3.8% annually up from 3.4%.
The robust nature of the economy has led to stock market performance being incredibly resilient in the face of continuous global headline risk.
The positive reactions are in part based on the notion that investors expect the Fed Governor Jerome Powell to adopt an even more dovish stance towards rates.
It’s almost as if we are back to the bad news is good news narrative.
Each dip is met with a furious bout of buying and even though we are trudging along sideways, for the time being, this sets up a great second half of the year as China will be forced to fold or face mass employment or worse offering at least a short-term respite for investors to go risk on.
As for the chip sector, high inventories on semiconductor balance sheets and in the channel will continue, as well as weak end demand in nearly every semiconductor end market meaning a once-in-a-generation magnitude of memory oversupply.
The trade war will most likely turn for the worse giving investors even more beaten down prices that will turn into great entry points when the time is ripe.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 14, 2019
(AAPL), (MSFT), (ADBE), (PYPL), (QCOM), (MU), (JD), (BABA), (BIDU)
Ratcheting up the trade tensions, China is pulling the trigger on retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, just days after the American administration said it would levy higher tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
American President Donald Trump accused China of reneging on a “great deal.”
The mushrooming friction between the two superpowers gives even more credence to my premise that hardware stocks should be avoided like the plague.
I have stood out on my perch in 2019 and proclaimed to buy software stocks and if you need one name to hide out in then I would confidently choose Microsoft (MSFT).
Microsoft has little exposure to China and will be rewarded the most on a relative basis.
The last place you want to get caught out is buying hardware stocks exposed to China and Apple is quickly turning into the largest piece of collateral damage along with airplane manufacturer Boeing.
Remember that 20% of Apple’s revenue comes from China and Apple bet big to solidify a complex supply chain through Foxconn Technology Group in China.
When history is recorded, CEO of Apple Tim Cook not hedging his bets exposing Apple’s revenue machine could go down as one of the worst ever managerial decisions by tech management.
The forced intellectual property transfers in China from western corporations was the worst kept secret in corporate America.
Being an operational guru as he is, and the hordes of data that Apple have access to, this was a no brainer and Cook should have mitigated his risks by investing in a supply chain that was partially outside of China, and not incrementally spreading out the supply chain through other parts of Asia is coming back to bite him.
China's most recent tariffs will come into effect on June 1, adding up to 25% to the cost of U.S. goods that are covered by the new policy from China's State Council Customs Tariff Commission.
The result of these newly minted tariffs is that importers will probably elect to avoid absorbing the costs themselves and pass the price hikes to the consumer sapping demand.
The American consumer still retains its place as the holy grail of the American economic bull case, but this will test the thesis.
For the short term, it would be foolish to hang out to Chinese companies listed in New York through American depository receipts (ADR) such as JD.com (JD), Alibaba (BABA).
Baidu (BIDU) is a company that I am flat out bearish on because of a weakening strategic position versus Alibaba and Tencent in China.
Even with no trade war, I would tell investors to short Baidu, and the chart is nothing short of disgusting.
Wei Jianguo, a former vice-minister at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce who handled foreign trade, said to the South China Morning Post that “China will not only act as a kung fu master in response to U.S. tricks but also as an experienced boxer and can deliver a deadly punch at the end.”
It is clear that any goodwill between the two heavyweight powers has evaporated and the hardliners inside the communist party pulled all the levers possible to back out at the last second.
Many of us do not understand, but there is a complicated political game perpetuating inside the Chinese communist party pitting reformists against staunch traditionalists.
This is not only Chairman Xi’s decision and appearing weak on the global stage is the last concession the communist government will subscribe to.
Along with the iPhone company, semiconductor stocks will be ones to avoid.
The list starts out with the chip companies leveraged the most to Chinese revenue as a proportion of total sales including Qualcomm (QCOM) with 65% of revenue in China, Micron (MU) who has 57% of sales in China, Qorvo who has half of sales from China, Broadcom who has 48% of sales from China, and Texas Instruments rounding out the list with 43% of total revenue from China.
The first 5 months of the year saw constant chatter that the two sides would kiss and makeup and chip stocks benefitted from that tsunami of positive momentum.
The picture isn’t as pretty when you flip the script, and chip stocks could suffer a gut-wrenching summer if the two sides drift further apart.
After Microsoft, other software names I would take comfort in with the added bonus of strong balance sheets are Veeva Systems (VEEV), PayPal (PYPL), and Adobe (ADBE).
The new tariffs will burden American households to up to $2 billion per month going forward, and new purchases for discretionary items like extra electronics will be put on the back burner extending the refresh cycle and saddling chip companies and Apple with a glut of iPhone and chip inventory.
Buy software companies on the dip.
Global Market Comments
February 22, 2019
(FEBRUARY 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(NVDA), (MU), (AMD), (LRCX), (GLD), (FXE), (FXB), (AMZN),
(PLAY IT SAFE WITH ANTHEM), (ANTM), (CI)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader February 20 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: If there is a China trade deal, should I buy China stocks, specifically Alibaba?
A: To a large extent, both Chinese and US stocks have already fully discounted a China trade deal, so buying up here could be very risky. The administration has been letting out a leak a day to support the stock market, so I don’t think there will be much juice left when the announcement is actually made. The current high levels of US stocks make everything risky.
Q: Is it time to buy NVIDIA (NVDA)?
A: The word I’m hearing from the industry is that you don’t want to buy the semiconductor stocks until the summer when they start discounting the recovery after the next recession (which is probably a year off from this coming summer). The same is true for Micron Technology (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Lam Research (LRCX).
However, if you’re willing to take some heat in order to own a stock that’s going to triple over the next three years, then you should buy it now. If you’re a long-term investor, these are the entry points you die for. Looking at the charts it looks like it is ready to take off.
Q: Should I be shorting the euro (FXE), with the German economy going into recession?
A: No. We’re at a low for the euro so it’s a bad time to start a short. It’s interest rates that drive the euro more than economies. With the U.S. not raising interest rates for six months, maybe a year, and maybe forever, you probably want to be buying the currencies more than selling them down here.
Q: Would you buy the British pound (FXB) on Brexit fears?
A: I would; my theory all along has been that Brexit will fail and the pound will return to pre-Brexit levels—30% higher than where we are at now. I have always thought that the current government doesn’t believe in Brexit one iota and are therefore executing it as incompetently as possible.
They have done a wonderful job, missing one deadline after the next. In the end, Britain will hold another election and vote to stay in Europe. This will be hugely positive for Europe and would end the recession there.
Q: What do we need to do for the market to retest the highs?
A: China trade deal would do it in a heartbeat. If this happens, we will get the 5% move to the upside initially. Then we’re looking at a double top risk for the entire 10-year bull market. That’s when the short players will start to come in big time. You’d be insane to new positions in stocks here. There is an easy 4,500 Dow points to the downside, and maybe more.
Q: Do you think earnings growth will come in at 5%, or are they looking to be zero or negative?
A: Zero is looking pretty good. We know companies like to guide conservative then surprise to the upside; however, with Europe and China slowing down dramatically, that could very well drag the U.S. into recession and our earnings growth into negative numbers. The capital investment figures have been falling for three months now. US Durable Goods fell by 1.2% in January.
This explains why companies have no faith in the American economy for the rest of this year. This was a big reason why Amazon (AMZN) abandoned their New York headquarters plans. They see the economic data before we do and don’t want to expand going into a recession.
Q: When will rising government debt start to hurt the economy?
A: It already is. Foreign investors have been pulling their bids for fear of a falling US dollar. They have also become big buyers of gold (GLD) in order to avoid anything American, so we have a new bull market there. In the end, the biggest hit is with business confidence.
Nothing good ever comes from exploding US deficits and companies are not inclined to invest going into that. That is a major factor behind the sudden deterioration in virtually all data points over the past month.
Good Luck and Good Trading
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
February 8, 2019
(FEBRUARY 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (FXA), (NVDA), (SPY), (IEUR),
(VIX), (UUP), (FXE), (AMD), (MU), (SOYB)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader February 6 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: Why are you so convinced bonds (TLT) are going to drop in 2019?
A: I think the Fed will regain the confidence to start raising rates again in the second half. Wage inflation is starting to appear, especially at the minimum wage level in several states. That will crater the bond market as well as the stock market, just as we saw in the second half of 2018. We’re in unknown territory in the bond market; we’re issuing astronomical WWII levels of debt and it’s only a matter of time before the Federal government crowds out private sector borrowers. Even if the bond market sidelines during this time, we will still make the maximum profit in the kind of option bear put spreads I have been putting on.
Q: Why did the Aussie (FXA) go down when they suddenly flipped from rising to cutting interest rates?
A: Interest rate differentials are the principal driver of all foreign exchange rates. They always have been and always will be. Rising rates almost always lead to a stronger currency. And with the US Fed on pause for the foreseeable future, we think the Aussie will be stronger going into 2019.
Q: Do you see the 10-year US Treasury yield going back up to 3.25% this year?
A: Yes, it’ll probably happen in the second half of the year—once the Fed gets its mojo back and decides that high employment and inflation are the bigger threats to the economy.
Q: Has NVIDIA (NVDA) bottomed here?
A: Probably, but you don’t want to touch the semiconductor chip companies until the summer. That’s when all the industry insiders expect the industry to turn and start discounting rocketing earnings after the next recession.
Q: Are stocks expensive here (SPY)?
A: On a trailing basis no, on a forward basis definitely yes. The current price/earnings multiple for the market is 17 now against a 14-20 range in 2018. So, we are dead in the middle of that range now. That’s OK when earnings are rapidly rising as they did last year. But they are falling now and at an increasingly increasing pace.
Q: Do you think the administration used the shutdown to bring forth a recession? To kickstart the pro-economic platform for reelection in 2020?
A: The administration’s view is that the economy is the strongest it’s ever been with no chance of future recession and that they will win the election as a slam dunk. If you believe that, buy stocks; if you don’t, sell them.
Q: How bad do you think Europe (IEUR) will get and does that mean the dollar (UUP) could see parity with the Euro (FXE) soon?
A: Europe is bad but they’re not going to raise interest rates anymore. However, they’re not going to cut them either because they’re already at zero. You need rising rates to see a stronger currency and the fact that the U.S. stopped raising rates is an argument for the Euro to go higher.
Q: Are we about to settle into a fading Volatility Index (VIX) environment for the rest of the year?
A: No, we are not; the (VIX) has been fading for 6 weeks. We’re approaching a bottom with the (VIX) here at $15, and the next big move in will probably be to the upside. The market has gotten WAY too complacent.
Q: Which are the most worrisome signals you see in the U.S. economy right now?
A: Weak earnings and sales guidance from all U.S. companies going forward and the immense jump in jobless claims last week as well as the ever-exploding amounts of government debt. Did I mention the trade war with China and the next government shutdown? Traders have a lot on their plate right now.
Q: How far will Lam Research (LRCX) go?
A: We’ve just had a massive 46% move up, so I wouldn’t chase it up here. However, long term there is still an easy double in this stock. They’re tied in with the semiconductor companies; NVIDIA, Advanced Micron Devices (AMD) and Micron Technology (MU) all trade in a group and may take one more run at the lows. Short term it’s overbought, long term it’s a screaming buy.
Q: Will the ag crisis feed into the main economy?
A: It could. All ag storage in the country is full, so farmers are putting the new harvest under tarps where it is rotting away and then claiming on their insurance. If you add another harvest on top of that it will be a disaster of epic proportions. China is America’s largest ag customer. It took decades of investment to develop them a client, and they are never coming back in their previous size. The trust is gone. Bankruptcies are at a ten-year high and that could eventually take down some regional banks which in turn hurt the big banks. However, ag is only 2% of the US economy, so it won’t cause the next recession. It’s really more of a story of local suffering.
Q: If you give out stop and not filled at stop price, when and how do you adjust to exit?
A: I would quickly enter it and if you’re not done quickly move it down five cents. If you don’t get done, do it again. There is no way to know where the real market is in until you put in a real order. There are 11 different option exchanges online and they are changing prices every millisecond. Furthermore, spread trades can get one leg done on one exchange and the second leg done on another, so prices can be all over the place.
Q: What data goes into the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index and how do you use it to time the markets?
A: It uses a basket of 30 different indicators which constantly changes according to what generates the highest return in a 30 year backtest. It includes a lot of conventional data points, like moving averages and RSIs, along with some of our own internal proprietary ones. When we are getting a reading below 20, we are looking to buy. Any reading over 65 and we are looking to sell, and over 80 we will only go short. It works like a charm. It paid for my new Tesla! I hope this helps.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 29, 2019
(WHATS BEHIND THE NVIDIA MELTDOWN),
(QRVO), (MU), (SWKS), (NVDA), (AMD), (INTC), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (FB)
Great company – lousy time to be this great company.
That is the least I can say for GPU chip company Nvidia (NVDA) who issued a cataclysmic earnings alert figuring it was better to spill the negative news now to start the healing process earlier.
This stock is a great long-term hold because they are the best of breed in an industry fueled by a secular tailwind in GPUs.
But this doesn’t mean they will be gifted any freebies in the short term and, sad to say, they have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into the heart of the trade skirmish along with Apple (AAPL) and buddy Intel (INTC) amongst others.
The best thing a tech company can have going for them right now is to have no China exposure, that is why I am bullish on software companies such as PayPal, Twilio, and Microsoft.
I called the chip disaster back in summer of 2018 recommending to stay away like the plague.
The climate has worsened since then and like I recently said – don’t buy the dead cat bounce in chips because the bad news isn’t baked into the story yet or at least not fully baked.
It’s actually a blessing in disguise if banned in China if you are firms such as Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN).
I recently noted that a material end to this trade war could be decades away and the tech world is already being reconfigured around the monopoly board as we speak with this in mind.
Where do things stand?
The US administration took a scalp when Chinese communist backed DRAM chip maker Fujian Jinhua effectively shuttered its doors.
Victory in a minor battle will likely embolden the US administration into continuing its aggressive stance if it is working.
If you forgot who Fujian Jinhua was… they are the Chinese chip company who were indicted by the U.S. Justice Department for stealing intellectual property (IP) from Boise-based chip behemoth Micron (MU).
The way they allegedly stole the information was by poaching Taiwanese chip engineers who would divulge the secrets to the Chinese company buttressing China in pursuing their hellbent goal of being able to domestically supply enough quality chips in order to stop buying American chips in the future.
Officially, China hopes to ramp up its self-sufficiency ratio in the semiconductor industry to at least 70% by 2025 which dovetails nicely with the broader goal of Chinese tech hegemony.
Fujian Jinhua was classified as a strategically important firm to the Chinese state and knocking the wind out of their sails will have a reverberating effect around the Chinese tech sector and will deter Taiwanese chip engineers to act as a go-between.
According to a research note by Zhongtai Securities, Jinhua’s new plant was expected to have flooded the market with 60,000 chips per month and generate annual revenue of $1.2 billion directly competing with Micron with their own technology borrowed from Micron themselves.
Jinhua’s overall goal was to support a monthly manufacturing target of 240,000 chips spoiling Chinese tech companies with a healthy new stream of state-subsidized allotment of chips needed to keep costs down and build the gadgets and gizmos of the future.
For the most part, it was unforeseen that the US administration had the gall and calculative nous to combat the nurtured Chinese state tech sector.
However, I will say, it makes sense to pick off the Chinese tech space now before they stop needing American chips at all in 5-7 years and when all remnants of leverage disappear.
The short-term pain will be felt in the American chip tech sector which is evident with the horrid news Nvidia reported and the aftermath seen in the price action of the stock.
Nvidia expects top line revenue to shrink by $500 million or half a billion – it’s been a while since I saw such a massive cut in forecasts.
Half of revenue comes from the Middle Kingdom and expect huge downgrades from Apple on its earnings report too.
If this didn’t scare you, what will?
These short-term headwinds are worth it to the American tech sector as a whole.
To eventually ward off a future existential crisis when Chinese GPU companies start offering outside business actionable high quality chips curated with borrowed technology, funded by artificially low debt, and for half the price is worth its weight in gold.
The same story is playing out with Huawei around the globe but at the largest scale possible.
This is what happens when the foreign tech sector is up against companies who have access to unlimited state loans and is part of wider communist state policy to take over foundational technology globally.
I will also emphasize that the Chinese communist party has a seat on every board at any notable Chinese tech company influencing decisions at the top even more than the upper management.
If upper management stopped paying heed to the communist voice at the table, they would be out of business in a jiffy.
Therefore, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei standing at a podium promulgating a scenario where Huawei is operating freely from the government is what dreams are made of.
It’s not a prognosis rooted in reality.
The communist party are overlords breathing down the neck of Huawei after any material decisions that can affect the company and subsequently the government’s position in the interconnected world.
The China blue print essentially entails a pan-Amazon strategy emphasizing large volume – low cost strategy.
Amazon was successful because investors would throw money at the company until it scaled up and wiped the competition away in one fell swoop.
Amazon is on a destructive path bludgeoning every American second-tier mall reshaping the economic world.
The unintended consequences have been profound with the ultimate spoils falling at the feet of CEO and Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos, his phalanx of employees as well as Amazon stockholders which are mostly comprised of wealthy investors.
Well, Chairman Xi Jinping and the Chinese communist party are attempting to Amazon the American tech sector and the broader American economy.
The American economy could potentially become the second-tier mall in this analogy and the game playing out is an existential crisis for the likes of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia, Micron, Intel and the who’s who of semiconductor chips.
If stocks reacted on a 30-year timeframe, Nvidia would be up 15% today instead of reaching a trading day nadir of 17%.
What is happening behind the scenes?
American tech companies are moving supply chains or planning to move supply chains out of China.
This is an epochal manifestation of the larger trade war and a decisive development in the eyes of the American administration.
In fact, many industry analysts understand a logjam of failed trade solutions as a bonus to the Chinese.
However, I would argue the complete opposite.
Yes, the Chinese are waiting out the current administration to deal with a new one that might be more lenient.
But that will take another two years and publicly listed companies grappling with the performance of quarterly earnings don’t have two years like the Chinese communist party.
And who knows, the next administration might even seize the baton from the current administration and clamp down even more.
Be careful what you wish for.
Taiwanese company and biggest iPhone assembler Foxconn Technology Group is discussing plans to move production away from China to India.
India is a democratic country, the biggest democracy in Asia, and is a staunch ally of the United States.
CEOs of Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), some of Silicon Valley heavyweights, are from India and American tech companies have been making generational tech investments in India recently.
Warren Buffet even invested $300 million in an Indian FinTech company Paytm.
When you read stories about India being the new China, well it’s happening faster than anyone thought and on a scale that nobody thought, and the underlying catalyst is the overarching trade war fueling this quick migration.
Apple is already constructing low grade iPhones in India in the state of Karnataka since 2017, and these were the first iPhones made in India.
They won’t be the last either.
Wistron, major Taiwanese original design manufacturer, has since started producing the iPhone 6S model there as well.
And it is no surprise that China and its artificially priced smartphones have undercut Samsung and Apple in India grabbing the market share lead.
This is happening all over the emerging world.
And don’t forget if U.S. President Donald Trump revisits banning American chip companies supply channels to Chinese telecom company ZTE. That would be 70,000 Chinese jobs out the window in a nanosecond.
The current administration has drier powder than you think and this would hasten the deceleration of the Chinese economy and also move forward the American recession into 2019 boding negative for tech shares.
Therefore, I would recommend balancing out a trading portfolio with overweights and underweights because it is obvious that tech stocks won’t be coupled to a gondola trajectory to the peak of the summit this year.
It’s a stockpickers market this year with visible losers and winners.
And if China does get their way in the tech war, American chip companies will eventually become worthless squeezed out by mainland competition brought down by their own technology full circle.
They are first on the chopping board because their overreliance on Chinese revenue streams for the bulk of sales.
Among these companies that could go bust are Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Qorvo (QRVO), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and as you expected Micron and Nvidia who are one of the main protagonists in this story.