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Tag Archive for: (SQ)

MHFTR

September 4, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 4, 2018
Fiat Lux
 

 

Featured Trade:
(READY PLAYER ONE’S INSIGHT INTO THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY),
(MSFT), (SQ), (TTWO), (AMD), (NVDA), (EA), (ATVI), (PYPL), (GOOGL), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-04 01:06:472018-08-31 20:49:59September 4, 2018
MHFTR

Ready Player One’s Insight into the Future of Technology

Tech Letter

The technology-laced film Ready Player One gives viewers a snapshot into the future where technology, income inequality, and society have run their course, and the year 2045 looks vastly different from the world of 2018.

Set in a semi-dystopian backdrop, the movie offers us a deeper insight into how certain technology trends will permeate into everyday life.

The first and most obvious future trend is the copious use of avatars.

Avatars will become the new normal. The first place that humans will find them is through the use of social media and entertainment, as children eventually becoming a part of us like our social media profiles today.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has incessantly hammered home about the phenomenon of gaming, and this will incorporate virtual reality allowing gamers access to a new digital world.

This was the on show in the film where the likes of protagonist Wade Watts, played by Tye Sheridan spent most of his life playing in the virtual world of Oasis using his character Parzival.

This could be your child in the future.

Wade Watts character is the new cool for Generation Z, as they are largely unconcerned about underage drinking and partying like the generations before them.

Gaming and hanging out on their preferred social media platforms are the new cool.

The companies dictating the current video game industry will have the first crack at it to realize profits and develop new businesses such as Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Electronic Arts Inc. (EA), Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO), and Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI).

Children just aren’t going outside like they used to and per most studies, they are addicted to the smartphone you bought them at age 10.

Most studies have found that once a child becomes hooked on technology, it is hard to reverse the habit, as once they enter into adult life and start their career, they become even more reliant on the technologies that got them to that point in the first place.

If your kid is already staring at tech devices three to four hours per day now for activities other than school work, expect that to grow to a minimum of six to seven hours per day once he hits puberty and smartphone time limits begin to fade away.

This all means that VR and gaming could be the handsome winner in all this, and the use of social media platforms will reap the benefits as well.

Generation Z just surpassed Millennials in terms of population comprising 25% of the American populace.

Neither of these generations have grown up with VR in their daily lives because the technology wasn’t advanced enough to really make a dent in their lives.

More than 75% of Generation Z has access to a smartphone, and they can truly be called the first generation of digital natives.

Avatars will push deeper into everyday life because the facial tracking technology has advanced by leaps and bounds.

Instead of cartoon-like avatars, lifelike avatars have replaced the less refined versions. It will be a tough time going forward distinguishing what is real and what is fake.

If you think fake news is a problem now, imagine how fake it will become in the future.

This could devastate the news industry as news organizations run the risk of melting down at any point, or just being completely taken over by tech companies and their algorithms, which is already happening now with Alphabet (GOOGL).

The future looks bleak for all newspaper assets, and the ones with the most advanced digital strategies will survive.

Newspapers only have so much time they can hang on with digital ad revenue, the reason they are still in business.

Viewers don’t want to see ads – period. And at some point, they will be disrupted as well.

Swashbuckling youth already have downloaded ad-blockers to completely remove ads from their lives, and refuse to open any website that forces them to white list a website.

There are children in Generation Z who might never have seen an ad before because their digital native capability allows them to navigate around ads with adept skill.

Or the easy solution for many Millennials is just watch Netflix because the platform is ad-less. The aversion to ads is so strong that traditional media giants such as Fox are experimenting with six-second ads because that is all a viewer can tolerate these days.

The traditional media giants were forced to adopt this new format after Alphabet’s YouTube rolled out micro-ads.

Popular browser Mozilla announced it will block all tracking scripts by default beginning in 2019, thwarting unregulated data collection and relentless ad pop-ups.

The reason why digital ads will have an existential crisis is because companies will be able to monetize the pure data, forcing companies with huge digital ad businesses such as Facebook (FB) to battle with the new competition that only wants your data and not hawk ads.

This is already happening in the e-brokerage space with disruptors such as Robinhood, which charges no commission and is more interested in collecting data and getting by with interest payment revenue.

Let’s face it, digital ads are not a high-quality business even though they are a high-margin business. As tech moves forward, the quality of tech will rise eliminating all low-grade tech that is still profiting in 2018.

On the business side of things, automation is replacing humans faster than humans realize, and the replacement will be an avatar representing the face of a company.

For lower-end services, an avatar chosen by the customer will populate to often give better service than a human can provide.

If this type of service is scaled, it would offer a massive cut in costs for American corporations saving on employee costs.

It will have the same effect that self-checkout kiosks have at supermarkets, wiping out another position at the low-end.

The front-end avatar that will service you is all possible because of the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence.

Every possible situation will be programmed in the software and executed briskly.

If customers desire the human touch, they will have to pay up.

Human interaction will command a premium price because human interaction cannot be automated.

The financial industry has a huge target on its back, and swaths of financial advisors could be sacked in favor of avatars with the functional software behind it to produce profits.

In fact, many financial advisors are instructed to refrain from recommendations now and urged to collect input to enter into a proprietary algorithm that will decide the customers’ portfolio.

Big banks have enjoyed their time in the sun, but technology will disrupt them in the near future. This is why you have seen huge run-ups in innovative fintech companies such as Square (SQ) and PayPal (PYPL).

Many forms of outside entertainment are on the chopping block, as well as indoor entertainment such as Hollywood.

Hollywood A-list actors command hefty premiums to contract their services, and that could all crumble if younger audiences prefer avatar-based films with the human roles performed by unknowns.

Johnny Depp earns more than $50 million for one movie, and these insane amounts could deflate rapidly if human participation in films becomes marginalized.

Ready Player One was a test case for how much technology could be infused into a movie, and the audience easily absorbed it.

I could argue that audiences could argue even more in this VR format.

The movie had a budget of $175 million, and returned $582 million at the box office.

The resounding success will encourage more directors to inject technology into their movies, and they will have to, if they hope to tempt younger audiences to the movie theater.

Going to the movie theater is another activity that has struggled to cope against the rise of Netflix and technology.

Theaters have been forced to improve the overall experience of watching a film with prime seating, comfortable seats, and other extras that never existed.

Every industry is going through the same headache of competing with technological disruption.

Stagnation is akin to surrendering in 2018.

And it wasn’t just a fringe director creating Ready Player One, it was visionary director Steven Spielberg, one of the most famous movie directors to ever exist.

This will pave the way for other lesser-known movie directors relying on technology to pump out the profits.

They wouldn’t be the first people or the first industry to go down this road either.

 

 

The Avatars Used In Ready Player One

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

“The worst thing a kid can say about homework is that it is too hard. The worst thing a kid can say about a game is it's too easy,” – said American media scholar Henry Jenkins III.

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MHFTR

July 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE TRADE WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE),
(SWKS), (ACIA), (CRUS), (XLNX), (ROKU), (SQ)

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MHFTR

The Trade War's Collateral Damage

Tech Letter

As the trade ruckus rumbles on for the foreseeable future, there are some places to deploy cash and some places to avoid like the zika virus.

The one area of tech to avoid that is clearer than daylight is the small cap chips companies.

Like a fish out of water, you should not feel comfortable holding shares in this type of equity amid the backdrop of an unresolved trade skirmish.

Although the Mandarins ironically need our chips, the uncertainty permeating around small chip firms means it's not time to hold let alone initiate new positions.

Investors still don't know how this standoff with shake out.

Until, there is more clarity going forward, give way to the next guy who can take the heavy loss.

Keep the powder dry for better times.

The long-term demand picture is healthy with IoT, cloud, and software companies never being thirstier for chips.

Short term is a different story with many of these smaller chip companies subscribing to grotesque charts that will make your jaw drop.

Take Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) whose shares have spent the majority of 2018 trending lower and are stuck in purgatory.

(SWKS) produces semiconductors deployed in radio frequency (RF) and mobile systems.

This stock has been tainted by the horrid reality that it generates 25% to 30% of revenue from China.

If you have been living in a cave for the past eight months, technology is the battleground for global supremacy pitting two of the leading technological heavyweights in the world against each other in a fiercely contested, drawn-out conflict.

Any American listed chip company doing at least 20% of revenue in China has the same chart trajectory and that is not up.

Adding insult to injury, (SWKS) generates 35% to 40% of its total revenue from Apple.

As we approach every earnings season, the story rewinds and plays again to loud applause.

A slew of analysts appears on air condemning Apple promulgating lower iPhone sales due to surveys taken across various key suppliers giving them a snapshot into production numbers.

Each time, the analysts are proved wrong. However, the avalanche of downgrades that ensues knocks the stuffing out of the small chip companies dipping viciously, at times more than 10% or more on the headline.

One of the larger Chinese contracts that was signed by (SWKS) was with ZTE. Yes, that ZTE, the one the U.S. administration temporarily put out of business for selling telecommunication equipment to North Korea and Iran.

That was the nail in the coffin.

According to the (SKWS) official website, it has an ongoing, expanding relationship with ZTE and its chips would be "powering data cards and USB modems" in ZTE-manufactured next-generation tablets.

Luckily, the American government reversed its initial decision restoring operations to ZTE.

That does not mean it is out of the woods yet as lingering risks still overhang over this company.

This revelation underscores the massive contract risk for companies that unlike behemoths such as Micron, are desperately reliant on just a handful of contracts to propagate short-term revenue.

Effectively, the U.S. administration views American chip companies as collateral damage to the bigger picture.

The only reason the ZTE ban was lifted was because it was a prerequisite to restart talks between both sides.

If the ban was upheld, 75,000 Chinese workers would have needed to polish the dust off their resumes to start a fresh job search.

The inability to sell components to service the Chinese consumer will strike where it hurts most: the bottom line.

Chip producers did $1.5 billion in sales with ZTE in 2017. That business is in a precarious situation when a tweet can just wipe out those contracts in one fell swoop.

Acacia Communications, Inc. (ACIA) churns out high-speed coherent interconnect products.

The stock was beaten down then beaten some more in 2018.

(ACIA) revealed 30% of its $385.2 million revenue derived from one contract with guess who...ZTE.

On word of ZTE ban, (ACIA) plummeted from $40 to $27.50 in one trading day.

The disappearance of a contract this vital to survival is tough for a small business to handle even if temporary.

Layoffs and a squeezed financial situation apply unrelenting pressure on management to find an elixir.

Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS) pumping out a mix of analog, mixed-signal, and audio DSP integrated circuits (ICs) was trading more than $62 just a year ago.

Fast forward to today and its shares are at a measly $39.

To say Cirrus Logic's eggs are in one basket is an understatement.

(CRUS) procures 80% of revenue from Apple.

It's all hunky-dory to develop a close relationship with Apple, but in light of this unpredictable economic climate, shares have been hit hard and there is no end in sight.

(CRUS) even won a contract to help produce Apple's noise canceling and water-resistant AirPods, but that does not do anything to change the narrative.

The vultures are circling around this name and it was time to abort a long time ago.

Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX) is another small chip company and the first to create the first fabless manufacturing model headquartered in San Jose, California.

This company, founded in 1984, procures around 35% of revenue from China

The trade headwinds have set this stock in the crosshairs, being the victim of frequent 5% drops and two 10% slides in 2018.

It is a miracle this stock is slightly in the green this year, and (XLNX) is one of the lucky ones.

Skim through the rest of small cap chips stocks and the charts look the same. Dreadful with massive rally busting sell-offs.

The extreme volatility in and of itself is a sensible reason to steer clear of these names.

The headline risks that splash across the morning news spreads are a daily reminder that chip stocks, big and small, aren't out of the woods yet.

The Johnny-come-latelies must expose themselves to higher quality, unique assets which possess little or no China exposure.

For the experts, trade the volatility at your peril. But if volatility is what you want with scarcity of value, leg into Roku (ROKU) or Square (SQ) on moderate sell-off days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Technological progress is like an ax in the hands of a pathological criminal," said German-born theoretical physicist Albert Einstein.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-07-26 01:05:302018-07-26 01:05:30The Trade War's Collateral Damage
MHFTR

July 13, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FANGS' PATH TO ONLINE BANKING),
(SQ), (V), (MA), (AXP), (JPM)

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MHFTR

July 9, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 9, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW ENVIRONMENTALISTS MAY KILL OFF BITCOIN),
(BTC), (ETH), (TWTR), (SQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-07-09 01:06:192018-07-09 01:06:19July 9, 2018
MHFTR

How Environmentalists May Kill Off Bitcoin

Tech Letter

If Jack Dorsey's proclamation that bitcoin will be anointed the global "single currency," it could spawn a crescendo of pollution the world has never seen before.

In a candid interview with The Times of London, Dorsey, the workaholic CEO of Twitter (TWTR) and Square (SQ), offered a 10-year time horizon for his claim to come to fruition.

The originators of cryptocurrency derive from a Robin Hood-type mentality circumnavigating the costly fees and control associated with banks and central governments.

Unfolding before our eyes is a potential catastrophe that knows no limits.

Carbon emissions are on track to cut short 153 million lives as environmental issues start to spin out of control while the world's population explodes to 9.7 billion in 2050, from 8.5 billion people in 2030, up from the 7.3 billion today.

All these people will need to barter in bitcoin, according to Jack Dorsey.

Cryptocurrency is demoralizingly energy intensive, and the recent institutional participation in crypto server farms will exacerbate the environmental knock on effects by displacing communities, destroying wildlife, and climate-changing carbon emissions.

This seemingly controversial means to outmaneuver the modern financial system has transformed into a murky arms race among greedy cryptocurrency miners to use the cheapest energy sources and the most efficient equipment in a no-holds-barred money grab.

Bitcoin and Ethereum mining combined energy consumption would place them as the 38th-largest energy consuming country in the world - if they were a country - one place ahead of Austria.

Mining a bitcoin adjacent to a hydropower dam is not a coincidence. In fact, these locales are ground zero for the mining movement. The common denominator is the access to cheap energy usually five times cheaper than standard prices.

Big institutions that mine cryptocurrency install thousands of machines packed like a can of sardines into cavernous warehouses.

In 2015, a documentary detailed a large-scale foreign mining operation with an electricity outlay of $100,000 per month creating 4,000 bitcoins. These are popping up all over the world.

An additional white paper from a Cambridge University study uncovered that 58% of bitcoin mining comes from China.

Cheap power equals dirty power. Chinese mining outfits have bet the ranch on low-cost coal and hydroelectric generators. The carbon footprint measured at one mine per day emitted carbon dioxide at the same rate as five Boeing 747 planes.

The Chinese mining ban in January set off a domino effect with the Chinese mining operations relocating to mainly Canada, Iceland, and the United States.

Effectively, China has just exported a tidal wave of new pollution and carbon emissions.

Bitcoin is mined every second of every day and currently has a supply of approximately 17 million today, up from 11 million in 2013.

Bitcoin's electricity consumption has been elevated compared to alternative digital payment currencies because the dollar price of bitcoin is directly proportional to the amount of electricity that can profitably be used to mine it.

To add more granularity, miners buy more servers to maintain profitability then upgrade to more powerful servers. However, the new calculating power simply boosted the solution complexity even faster.

Mines are practically outdated upon launch, and profitability could only occur by massively scaling up.

Consumer grade personal computers are useless now because the math problems are so advanced and complicated.

Specialized hardware called Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) is required. These mining machines are massive, hot, and guzzle electricity.

Bitcoin disciples would counter, describing the finite number of bitcoins - 21 million. This was part of the groundwork laid down by Satoshi Nakamoto (a pseudonym), the anonymous creator of bitcoin, when he (or they) constructed the digital form of money.

Nakamoto could not have predicted his digital experiment backfiring in his face.

The bottom line is most people use bitcoins to literally create money out of thin air in digital form, rather than using it as a monetary instrument to purchase a good or service.

That is why people mine cryptocurrency, period.

Now, excuse me while I go into the weeds for a moment.

Enter hard fork.

A finite 21 million coins is a misnomer.

A hard fork is a way for developers to alter bitcoin's software code. Once bitcoin reaches a certain block height, miners switch from bitcoin's core software to the fork's version. Miners begin mining the new currency's blocks after the bifurcation, creating a new chain entirely and a brand spanking new currency.

Theoretically, bitcoin could hard fork into infinite new machinations, and that is exactly what is happening.

Bitcoin Cash was the inaugural hard fork derived from the bitcoin's blockchain, followed by Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Diamond.

Recently, the market of hard fork derivations includes Super Bitcoin, Lightning Bitcoin, Bitcoin God, Bitcoin Uranium, Bitcoin Cash Plus, Bitcoin Silver, and Bitcoin Atom.

All will be mined.

The hard fork phenomenon could generate millions of upstart cryptocurrency server farms universally planning to infuse market share because new currencies will be forced to build up a fresh supply of coins.

If Peter Thiel's prognostication of a 20% to 50% chance of bitcoin's price rising in the future is true, it could set off a cryptocurrency server farm mania.

By the way, Thiel also believes that there is a 30% chance that Bitcoin could go to zero.

A surge in price of bitcoin results in mining cryptocurrency operations everywhere by any type of electricity, especially if the surge maintains price stability. Even mining in Denmark, where one finds the world's costliest electricity at $14,275 per bitcoin, would make sense.

Recently, miners' appetite for power is causing local governments to implement surcharges for extra infrastructure and moratoriums on new mines. Even these mines built adjacent to hydro projects are crimping the supply lines, and consumers are forced to buy power from outside suppliers. Miners are often required to pay utility bills months in advance.

By July 2019, mining will possibly need more electricity than the entire United States consumes. And by February 2020, bitcoin mining will need as much electricity as the entire world does today, according to Grist, an environmental news website.

Geographically, most locations around the world were profitable based on May's bitcoin price of $10,000.

However, the sudden slide down to $6,556.55 reaffirms why the Mad Hedge Technology Letter avoids this asset class like the plague.

The most unrealistic operational locations are distant, tropical islands, such as the Cook Islands at $15,861, to mine one bitcoin.

If you'd like to drop your life and make a fortune mining bitcoin, then Venezuela is the most lucrative at $531 per bitcoin.

As bitcoin's nosedive perpetuates, Venezuela might be the last place on earth with mining farms.

Who doesn't like free money? Set up a few devices, crank up the power, collect the coins, pay off the electricity bill, pocket the difference and hopefully the world - or Venezuela - hasn't keeled over by then.

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"If privacy is outlawed, only outlaws will have privacy," - said Philip R. "Phil" Zimmermann, Jr., creator of the most widely used email encryption software in the world.

 

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MHFTR

June 27, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T NAP ON ROKU)
(MSFT), (ROKU), (AMZN), (AAPL), (CBS), (DIS), (NFLX), (TWTR), (SQ), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-27 01:06:442018-06-27 01:06:44June 27, 2018
MHFTR

Don't Nap on Roku

Tech Letter

Unique assets stand the test of time.

In an era of unprecedented disruption, unique assets' strength begets strength.

This is one of the big reasons the vaunted FANG group has carved out power gains in the business landscape bestowed with a largesse dwarfing any other sector.

As the FANGs trot out to imminent profitability by supercharging massive scale, the emerging tech environment gives food for thought.

These up-and-coming companies fight tooth and nail to elevate themselves to FANG status because of the ease of operating in a duopoly or an outright monopoly.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the closest substitute to an outright FANG. In many ways CEO Satya Nadella has positioned himself better than Facebook (FB) and Apple.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has pounced on the newest kids on the block offering subscribers buy, sell or hold recommendations zoning in on the best first and second tier companies in tech land.

The top echelon of the second tier is led by no other than Jack Dorsey and both of his companies, Square (SQ) and Twitter (TWTR), offer idiosyncratic services that cannot be found elsewhere.

I have devoted stories to Dorsey gushing about his ability to build a company and rightly so.

Another solid second tier tech company bringing uniqueness to the table is Roku (ROKU), which I have talked about in glowing terms before when I wrote, "How Roku is Winning the Streaming Wars."

To read the archived story, please click here.

Roku is a cluster of in-house, manufactured, online streaming devices offering OTT (over-the-top) content in the form of channels on its proprietary platform.

The word Roku means six in Japanese and it was chosen because Roku was the sixth company established by founder and CEO Anthony Wood commencing in 2002.

Cord-cutting has been a much-covered topic in my newsletters and this generational shift in consumer behavior benefits Roku the most.

In 2017, 25% of televisions purchased were Roku TVs. According to several reports, more than half of all streaming players purchased last year were Roku players.

This would explain how Roku has shifted its income streams from the physical box itself to selling ads and licensing agreements.

Yes, Roku earns the lion's share of its profits similar to the rogue ad seller Facebook.

Roku does not actually sell anything physical except the box you need to operate Roku, which earned Roku a fixed $30 per unit.

The box serves as the gateway to its platform where it sells ads. Migrating to higher caliber digital businesses like selling ads will stunt the hardware revenue part of its business.

That is all part of the plan.

A new survey conducted regarding fresh cord-cutters demonstrated that out of 2,000 cord-cutters questioned, 70% already had a Roku player and felt no need to pay for cable TV anymore.

Second on the list was Amazon Fire TV at 34%, and Apple TV (AAPL) came in third at 10%.

The dominant position has forced content creators to pander toward Roku TV's platform because third-party content creators do not want to miss out on a huge swath of cord-cutter millennials who are entering into their peak spending years and spend most of their time parked on Roku's platform.

Surveys have shown that millennials do not need a million different streaming services.

They only choose one or two for main functionality, and in most cases, these are Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN).

Roku allows both these services to be integrated onto its platform. Cord-cutters can supplement their Netflix and Amazon Prime Video binge with a few more a la carte channels to their preference depending on points of interest.

In general, this is how millennials are setting up their entertainment routine, and all roads don't lead through Rome, but Roku.

If the massive scale continues at this pace, 2020 could be the year profitability explodes through the roof.

The next 18 months should give way to parabolic spikes, followed by consolidation to higher lows in the share price.

When I recommended this stock, its shares were trading at a tad above $32 on April 18, 2018, and immediately spiked to $47 on June 20, 2018.

The tariff sell-off hit most second tier tech companies flush in the mouth. The 5% and occasional 7% intraday sell-offs churn the stomach like Mumbai street food during the height of the Indian summer.

That is part and parcel of dipping your toe into these rising stars.

The move ups are parabolic, but the sell-offs make your hair fall out.

Well, glue your locks back onto your scalp, because we have reached another entry point.

Roku is now trading back down in the low $40 range, and I would bet my retirement fund that Roku will end the year above $50.

This unique company is expected to grow its subscriber base by at least 20% annually, and in five years total subscribers will eclipse 45 million users.

Reinforcing its industry leadership, traditional media companies such as Disney and CBS do not have built-in streaming viewership that comes close to touching Roku.

This has forced these traditional media giants to push their content through Roku or lose a huge amount of the 18 to 34 age bracket for which advertisers yearn.

These traditional players are armed with robust ad budgets, and a good bulk of it is allocated to Roku among others.

For each additional a la carte channel users sign up for on Roku, the company earns a sales commission.

As a tidal wave of niche streaming channels plan to hit the market, the first place they will look to is Roku's platform and this trend will only become stronger with time.

A prominent example was Sling TV, which showed up at Roku's front door first before circling around the rest of the neighborhood.

The runway for Roku's three main businesses of video ads, display ads, and licensing with streaming partners, is long and robust.

The one caveat is the fierce competition from Amazon Fire TV, which puts its in-house content on Amazon front and center when you start the experience.

Roku has head and shoulders above the biggest library of content, and the Amazon effect could scare traditional media for licensing content to Amazon.

We have seen the trend of major players removing their content from streamers because of the inherent conflict of interests licensing content to them while they are developing an in-house business.

It makes no sense to voluntarily offer an advantage to competition.

Roku has no plans to initiate its own in-house original content, and this is the main reason that Amazon and Netflix will lose out on Disney (DIS), CBS (CBS), NBC, and Fox content going forward.

These traditional players categorize Roku as a partner and not a foe.

To get into bed with the traditional media giants means digital ads and lots of them. In terms of a user experience, the absence of ads on Netflix and Amazon is a huge positive for the consumer experience.

But traditional players have the option of bundling ads and content together on Roku making Roku even more of a diamond in the rough.

In short, nobody offers the type of supreme aggregator experience, deep penetration of cord-cutting viewership, and the best streaming content on one graphic interface like Roku.

It is truly an innovative company, and it is in the driver's seat to this magnificent growth story.

It's hard to argue with CEO Anthony Wood when he says that Roku is the future of TV.

He might be right.

If Roku keeps pushing the envelope enhancing its product, it will be front and center as a potential takeover target by a bigger tech company.

Either way, the scarcity value of these types of assets will drive its share prices to the moon, just avoid the nasty sell-offs.

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Google's not a real company. It's a house of cards," - said former CEO of Microsoft Steve Ballmer.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-27 01:05:422018-10-19 11:43:39Don't Nap on Roku
MHFTR

June 25, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
June 25, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR IS THIS A 1999 REPLAY?),
(AAPL), (FB), (NFLX), (AMZN), (GE), (WBT),
(JOIN ME ON THE QUEEN MARY 2 FOR MY JULY 11, 2018 SEMINAR AT SEA),
(JUNE 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SQ), (PANW), (FEYE), (FB), (LRCX), (BABA), (MOMO), (IQ), (BIDU), (AMD), (MSFT), (EDIT), (NTLA), Bitcoin, (FXE), (SPY), (SPX)

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