This was the week that the Coronavirus came back with a vengeance.
The market had been backing out the pandemic for the past three months. Now it is abruptly pricing it back in.
Hospitalizations soared in 16 states to new all-time highs, as the first wave continues to grow exponentially. Deaths have topped 125,000. The good news is that only 5,000 died last week. That is nearly two 9/11’s, or 12 Boeing 747’s crashes worth of victims.
Apple has closed eight stores in Texas and another 14 stores in Florida. Arizona is on the verge of running out of hospital beds. This is going to weigh heavily on the market until we see another interim peak. It looks like the last one was certainly a false summit, in climber’s lingo.
What was really interesting last week is what DIDN’T happen. While the “reopening” stock LIKE banks (BAC), energy (XOM), cruise lines (CCL), hotels (MGM), casinos (WYNN), airlines (UAL) were absolutely slaughtered, gold, technology, and biotech barely moved. It says volumes about what happens next. You want to use selloffs to buy quality at a discount, not garbage that is going to zero.
Technology and biotech are where you want to focus your buying of stock, futures, and LEAPS. The next big dip is the one you buy.
You can count on the government stepping in and announcing more stimulus on the next down 1,000-point day. Thursday mornings seem to be a favorite time, right before the next horrific Weekly Jobless Claims are announced, which also seem to be reaccelerating.
The Fed can do this for free, without spending any money, simply by expanding the asset classes eligible for quantitative easing. Some $8 trillion in QE certainly buys a lot of friends in the market. I believe that any run in the S&P 500 (SPX) down to 2,700 will be met by government action. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin expects another stimulus package in July, but only if he gives away the store to Nancy Pelosi. Just what the market needs, more stimulus. Most of the 40 million out of work are still jobless. It could be $1 trillion worth of stimulus checks and other giveaways headed for the stock market, like the last lot. My kids still haven’t spent their first checks! We’re going broke anyway, so why not?
The stock market is clearly running out of gas, at a 26 multiple, the highest since the Dotcom bubble top. Any more stimulus may simply go into bank deposits. The risk/reward for new positions here is terrible. It sits nicely into my sideways range scenario for the rest of the year.
Existing Home Sales are down 9.7% in May, the worst in ten years. They are off 26.6% YOY, the worst figure since 1982 when home mortgage rates were at 18%. Inventories are down an eye-popping 18.8% to 4.8 months as sellers pulled listing to avoid virus-infested buyers. The first-time buyers live, but the action is shifting out of condos and into single family homes in the burbs.
Weekly Jobless Claims jump 1.5 million, far worse than forecast. It looks like we are getting a second wave of jobless as Corona ravages the south and business hangers-on throw in the towel. Some 20 million Americans remain on state unemployment benefits, which will start to run out shortly. Will stocks look through this?
Banks are banned from paying dividends and buying back shares, orders the US Treasury. The Fed estimates that pandemic-related loan losses could reach $700 billion, wiping out their capital. Every bailout comes with a pound of flesh. The banks have made billions off of stimulus loans, like the PPP. The banks rallied because the news wasn’t worse, like a mandatory 5% share giveaway, which happened last time. Buy banks like (JPM), (BAC), and (C) on an expected yield curve steepening.
Tesla (TSLA) is now the world’s most valuable car company, with a market capitalization of over $180 billion. It just passed Toyota Motors (TM). (TSLA) is now worth more than the entire US car industry combined. That could double very quickly. The upcoming model Y is expected to be its biggest seller and a third production plant will be announced imminently. The rush out of public transit and into private cars simply accelerated a pre-existing trend or the company.
When we come out on the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade.
My Global Trading Dispatch enjoyed another respectable week, taking in a welcome 3.87%, bringing June in at +2.56%. Despite the market diving nearly 10%, we pulled in big profits from our short positions and captured accelerated time decay on our longs. My eleven-year performance stands at a new all-time high of 368.75%.
That takes my 2020 YTD return up to a more robust +12.88%. This compares to a loss for the Dow Average of -12.3%, up from -37% on March 23. My trailing one-year return popped back up to 53.27%. My eleven-year average annualized profit recovered to +34.91%.
The only numbers that count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here. It’s jobs week and we should see an onslaught of truly awful numbers.
On Monday, June 29 at 11:00 AM EST, US Pending Home Sales for May are out.
On Tuesday, June 30 at 10:00 AM EST, the April Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is published.
On Wednesday, July 1, at 9:15 AM EST, the ADP Private EmploymentReport is released. At 10:30 AM EST, the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are published.
On Thursday, June 2 at 8:30 AM EST, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced.
On Friday, June 3, at 8:30 AM EST, the June Nonfarm Payroll Report is printed. Since last month was a large overstatement, June could be positively diabolical. The Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 2:00 PM EST.
As for me, I am rushing out and doing errands, like a trip to the barber, haircut, hardware store, dry cleaners, the dentist, and the doctor in case the California economy shuts down once again. We’ve been slightly open for a few weeks.
That may be all we get this year.
Stay healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/john-thomas-tesla.png204360Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-06-29 09:02:112020-06-29 09:38:37The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Covid-19 is Back!
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own a deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, June 19, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This involves the:
the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) June 2020 $175-$180 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread
the S&P 500 (SPY) June 2020 $235-$245 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread
Provided that we don’t have another 3,000-point move down in the market by next week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.
So far, so good.
I’ll do the math for you on our oldest iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) position. Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $5.00 expiration value - $4.10 cost = $0.90 net profit
(24 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.90 profit per options)
= $2,160 or 21.95% in 34 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning June 22 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next quarter-end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/john-and-girls.png322345Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-06-10 08:02:082020-09-28 12:12:21How to Handle the Friday June 19 Options Expiration
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the June 3 Mad Hedge Fund TraderGlobal Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: Domino's Pizza (DPZ) is at all-time highs? Would you buy this name right here, right now?
A: No, I would not even buy their pizza. You would be crazy to buy them right now up here this high. I prefer Round Table, the pizza not the stock. All of these “reopening” stocks are way overextended.
Q: Will the riots delay the recovery?
A: Yes, they will, it could take as much as another 1% off the current GDP growth rate. It’s hitting the already worst-hit sector—retailers. Many retailers will not come back from these, especially the small ones. These businesses were just returning from being closed for two months when they got burned down. But we won’t see it in the macro data for many months because its happening largely at the micro level. If you didn’t like Macy’s (M) before when it was headed for Chapter 11, you definitely won’t like it now that it is burning down.
Q: If airlines like United Airlines (UAL) can’t use the middle seat, do you see ticket prices going up 10%, 25%, or 50%?
A: Yes. In theory, to just cover the middle seat, they have to increase prices 33%. And there will be a whole lot of new costs that the airlines have to endure as part of this pandemic, such as extra cleaning, disinfecting, and temperature taking. So, they’re really going to need to increase prices by 50% or more just to break even. My guess is that the airline industry will shrink in half in the fall when all the government bailout money runs out. So, I've been telling people to take profits on the airlines, especially if you have a double or triple in them, or if you have the LEAPS.
Q: Is Facebook (FB) immune from any big selloff?
A: No, nobody is immune—look how much Facebook sold off in March, some 35%. Mark Zuckerberg seems to be making a deal with the devil, accommodating the president with unrestricted incendiary Facebook posts. And the consequences of a Democratic win for Facebook could be hugely negative, so I am not participating in that one. Mark doesn’t have a lot of friends in congress right now so regulation looms.
Q: What do you think about buying Las Vegas Sands (LVS) or Wynn Resorts (WYNN) on the expectation of reopening?
A: I’m a Nevada resident and get frequently updated on the casino news. They’re only going to be allowed half of peak casino visitors that they had in January, so they will generate huge losses. Almost all companies are being allowed to reopen back to half the level that guarantees bankruptcy in 3-6 months. But we won’t see that in the numbers for many months either. I’m negative on any industry that depends on packing people in, like airlines, cruise lines, and movie theaters.
Q: What are the chances of a mass student debt cancellation?
A: That is a possibility if the Democrats win in November, and it has already been proposed. It is about a $1.5 trillion ticket. If you’re bailing out large companies, small companies, airlines, and the oil industry, why not students? It would have the benefit of adding 10 million more consumers to the economy, who are not current participants because they have massive student debts that are appreciating at 10% a year and have terrible credit ratings. So that would be another great economic stimulus measure. By the way, I paid off my student loans 40 years ago in a lump sum payment with my first paycheck from Morgan Stanley (MS). How much did four years of college cost during the 1960s? $3,000. Such a deal.
Q: What’s the next resistance level on the S&P 500 (SPX)?
A: The target we’ve been looking for is $3,125. I’m looking for roughly $40 points above that level—it should be about $3,165. We’re in uncharted territory here because nobody’s ever seen a market rise 40% in two months, so any technical recommendation has to be bearish except for a very short term, like intra-day or daily views.
Q: Any correlation between the 1918 epidemic and now?
A: Here is your History of Virology Lesson 101 for today. There is some similarity, but the 1918 flu actually originated on a farm in Kansas, had a 2% death rate, took a trip to Europe, mutated, came back months later, and then had a death rate of 50%. We haven't seen that second wave yet, or major mutations. We have seen a couple of different DNA strands out there though, meaning we would need multiple different vaccines when we get them. By the way, it was called the “Spanish Flu” because during WWI, every country had censorship except Spain because it was not a combatant. So, the pandemic was only reported in the Spanish newspapers.
Q: Would you get out of any of the previously recommended LEAPS?
A: Yes, I would be taking profits on all of your LEAPS—whether tech, domestic, “recovery”, or whatever else—so if we do get a correction over the summer, you can get back in at better prices, with longer expirations. You can go two years out from say August for example. The risk/reward today is terrible.
Q: Would you hold on to the (SDS) right now, or wait for the pullback
A: No, we have offsetting profits on all of our (SDS) positions, until today—if the market keeps accelerating to the upside, SDS losses will start to offset our profits on the positions, so that’s why I would get out.
Q: Should I buy the ProShares Ultra-Short 20 + Year Treasury Bond Fund (TBT)? I don’t do options.
A: You don’t need to do options, (TBT) is an ETF; anybody can buy that, it’s just like buying a stock.
Q: What is happening with the Australian market?
A: It will trade with the US stock market tick for tick, which means they’ve had a fantastic rally, overdue for a selloff. Wait to buy the next dip.
Q: If markets are going to go down soon, why exit the (SDS)
A: It may go up first before it goes down. And in any case, I have a great profit on the combined position of long (SDS) and short bonds. These days, I like taking big profits rather than praying they become bigger. It’s about risk control and knowing what you can get away with in certain market conditions.
Q: Is now the time to sell the highflyers in tech?
A: Yes, I would be selling Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN). Get dry powder, which is worth a lot after you’ve seen a move like this; especially if the economy gets worse, which is likely. My late mentor Barton Biggs taught me to always leave the last 10% of a move for the next guy.
Q: At what point do you buy the ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETF (SDS) outright?
A: Only if there is an immediate collapse in the market, which I can’t foresee with any certainty. When you play these bear ETFs, the costs are very high. You are short double the (SPX) dividend, which is about 5% a year, plus hefty management fees. So, you really have to catch a quick, large move to the downside to make any real money.
Q: Real estate seems like the big winner of the pandemic. Will prices be up by the end of the year or is this just a temporary spike?
A: They will be up at the end of the year. I have been telling readers all year that their home will be their best investment in 2020 and that is coming true. Real estate has a massive tailwind behind it which has really been in place for a couple of years now, and that is the millennials upgrading and buying houses. The pandemic has really poured gasoline on the fire and triggered a stampede out of the city and into the suburbs. Having 85 millennials ready to upgrade their homes is a huge positive for the real estate market, and I’d be looking to buy the homebuilders on any dip. That’s probably the best domestic play out there. Buy Lennar Corp. (LEN) and Pulte Homes (PHM) on dips.
Q: Post pandemic, will manufacturing have any way of helping US economic growth, or is bringing back the supply chains fake news?
A: It is fake news because if companies bring back production, it will be machines and not people making things. Unless you want to pay $10,000 for an iPhone, or $5,000 for a low-end laptop. Oh yes, and the stocks which made these things would be 90% lower as well. That’s what those products cost in today’s dollars if they were made in the United States. I wouldn't count on any repatriation of US jobs unless people want to work for $3 a day like the Chinese do. Offshoring happened for a reason.
Q: How do I hedge a municipal bond portfolio?
A: You might think about taking profits in muni bonds. They’re yielding around 2% and change. And they could get hit with a nice little 20-point decline if the US Treasury bond market (TLT) falls apart, which it will. Then you can think about buying them back. If you really want to hedge, you sell short the (TLT) against your long muni bond portfolio. But that is an imperfect hedge because the default rate on munis is going to be much higher than it is now than it was in 2008-2009, and much higher than US Treasuries, which never defaults despite what the president has said.
Q: What is dry powder?
A: It means having cash to buy stocks at market bottom. In the 1800s before cartridges were invented, black powder got wet whenever it rained causing guns to fail to shoot. That is the historical analogy.
Q: What do we do now if we’re getting started?
A: It will require a lot of discipline on your part as coming in at market tops is always risky. Wait for the next trade alert. Every one of these is meant to work on a standalone basis. I would do nothing unless you see one of these things happen; any 2 or 3-point rally in bonds (TLT), you want to sell short. We’re just at the beginning of a multiyear trade here so it’s not too late to get back into that. Gold (GLD) is probably safe to buy on the dip here since we are at the very beginning of a historic expansion of the global money supply. I wouldn’t touch any stocks unless we get at least a 10% drop and then I'll start putting out call spread recommendations on single stocks. But right here, on top of the biggest bounceback in stocks in market history, don’t do anything. Just read the research and make lists of things to buy when they do dip—something I do for you anyway.
Q: What about Beyond Meat (BYND)?
A: The burgers are not that bad, but the stock is way overpriced and you don’t want to touch it. It's one of the fad stocks of the day.
Q: Can we access the slides after the webinar?
A: Yes, we post it on the website under your “Account” section about two hours after we’re done.
Q: Are you saying sell everything currently profitable?
A: Yes, I would be selling everything on a short term basis, keep tech and biotech on a long term basis. We are the most overbought in history and you don’t get asked twice to sell tops. But yes, it could go higher before the turn happens. From a risk-reward point of view, it’s terrible to do anything right now.
Q: Could we get a pullback to the $260-$270 area in the S&P 500 (SPY)?
A: Yes, especially if we get a second worse wave of corona and the stimulus takes much longer than we thought to get into the economy, or if the rioting continues.
Q: Should you sell CCI now?
A: Yes, I actually would. You have a 57% gain in the stock in ten weeks, so why not? Long term, it’s a hold.
Q: Are any retail stocks a buy?
A: No, they aren’t because a lot of them are going to go under but you don’t know which ones. After shutting down and losing 60% of their revenues, they’re now being burned down. The pros who do well in the sector are bankruptcy specialists who have massive research teams that analyze every lease in every mall and then cherry-pick. You and I don’t have the ability to do that so stay away.
Q: What is the best way to play real estate?
A: Buy a house. If not, then you buy (LEN), (KBI), and (PHM).
Q: Is it too late to get back in the stock market?
A: Yes, I'm afraid it is. Buying, because it has gone up, is a classic retail investor mistake. After this meltdown, maybe you will learn to buy stocks when everyone else is throwing up on their shoes. That's what I was doing in March and we got returns of 50% to 100% on everything and 500% to 1,000% on the LEAPS (TSLA).
Q: Are you buying puts?
A: No, I am not taking outright short positions any more than I have now because we have a Fed-driven melt-up underway with a stimulus that's 20x larger than that seen during the 2008-2009 Great Recession. When I don’t know what’s going to happen, I get out.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/john-hiking.png523432Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-06-05 10:02:282020-09-28 12:12:02June 3 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
(JOIN THE JUNE 4 TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT),
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE COUNTRY THAT IS FALLING APART),
(SPX), (INDU), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD),
(AAPL), (FB), (JPM), (BAC)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-06-01 09:06:422020-06-01 09:27:37June 1, 2020
Yes, we here at Incline Village, Nevada have received a “stay at home” order because we are in Washoe County, the same county as Reno, where police tear-gassed rioters assaulting a police station yesterday.
I now have the challenge of commuting between two cities that are curfewed, Oakland, CA and Incline Village, NV.
I wonder if this is turning into another 1968, but with a pandemic? That is when casualties peaked from the Vietnam War and there were national race riots and political assassinations.
I hope not.
I’m really getting into this pandemic thing. That’s because people tell me that I am better looking with a mask on. But then I’ve grown a long grey beard since I was locked up three months ago, so maybe less is better.
The great American talent for creativity, which I always knew was lurking under the surface, and exploded into the open.
High-end restaurants are now placing dressed up dummies at every other table to enforce social distancing rules. At one table, a man is on his knee proposing marriage to his girlfriend. At another, an older couple is arguing. Click here for a laugh.
An enterprising dad has captured 2 million YouTube views describing how to perform tasks only dads can do, like jump-starting a car and fixing toilets. If you need his help ask “Dad, How Do I” by clicking here.
Only in America.
In the meantime, the stock market had one of the best weeks of the year in the face of the worst economic data in history. The (SPY) broke the 200-day moving average to the upside as the newly unemployed topped a staggering 41 million. Buyers rotated into recovery stocks as Covid-19 deaths exceeded 100,000.
All of the super smart traders I know who went into cash or strapped on short positions at the end of January are doing the same now. When markets detach from reality, I detach myself from risk. Almost all of my positions are now very low risk, have extremely small deltas, and expire in 14 trading days. The risk/reward for stocks now is terrible. The Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service delivered a stunning 27% profit off the March bottom.
By the way, in 1968 when the country was last falling apart, the Dow Average rose by 4.3% as part of one long 20-year sideways move. Brokers were forced to drive taxi cabs. I went to Tokyo for better fish to fry, and then Cambodia, Laos, and Burma. I came back 20 years later with an ample collection of lead stuck in various parts of my body.
Pending Home Sales fell down 21.8%, in April, and off 33.8% YOY on a signed contract basis. These are the worst numbers since the data series started. The West was hardest hit, down 50%. No wonder I’ve seen so many real estate agents at the beach. We already know that a sharp rebound is underway as Millennials move to the burbs and flee Corona-infested cities. Home prices will be up this year.
Easy In, Easy Out. The Fed pumped $3 trillion into the economy, and exactly $3 trillion has gone into stocks since the March bottom. There is a 90% correlation between stock prices and the direction of the Fed balance sheet. Stimulus checks went straight into day trading accounts as soaring online stock and option volumes show. In the meantime, Q2 GDP estimates have fallen to the -40%-50% range. What happens when the Fed stops buying? The M2 Money Supply (remember that?) is growing at an 80% annual rate. Buy gold (GLD).
Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 2.4 million, meaning that 41 million, or one out of four Americans out of work. That’s worse than seen during the Great Depression. Recent surveys show employers will hire back only 80% of those laid off, meaning that the Unemployment rate could stay above 10% for years. The future is being pulled forward fast and that means far fewer brick and mortar jobs. Only the large and the digital will survive.
The Market Has Flipped, from chasing big tech to chasing reopening stocks. It’s the only place where value is left. Out with (AAPL) and (FB) and in with (JPM) and (BAC). If it lasts, we’re going to new highs.
The China Trade War heats up, with 33 new companies banned from doing business with the US. You can cut global growth forecasts even more as international trade accelerates its decline. Where was Trump when tens of thousands demonstrated for democracy last fall? Wasn’t China’s President Xi Jinping his friend who did a great job controlling Covid-19?
Stocks are the most overbought in 20 years, since the top of the Dotcom bubble. Risk is extreme for new longs. Almost all S&P 500 stocks are trading above 50-day moving average. Monster market short could force a short squeeze, with trend following commodity trading advisors boasting the biggest bearish bets in five years. The 200-day moving average at (SPX) $2,999.72 could be a real make or break, only 45 points away. The falling Volatility Index (VIX) is priming the pump for a downside collapse.
New Home Sales were up a stunning 0.6% in April versus an expected -21.9% loss, totaling 623,000 units on a signed contract basis only. The premium is now on new, clean, virus-free homes where you don’t die from a model home. Median home prices plunged from $339,000 to $309,000, down 8% YOY. It’s clear that a lot of speculative buying took place at the market bottom.
US Mortgage Applications up for 6th week, surging 54% since April. My forecast that your home will be your best performing asset of 2020 is coming true. I’m hearing stories of bidding wars again. It’s tough to beat a huge Millennial tailwind and record low-interest rates.
When we come out on the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates at zero, oil at $0 a barrel, and many stocks down by three quarters, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade.
My Global Trading Dispatch performance was unchanged on the week, my downside hedges costing me money in a steadily rising, but wildly overbought market. We stand at an eleven year all-time high of 366.23%. It has been one of the most heroic performance comebacks of all time. We have gained an eye-popping 27.03% since the market bottom despite being hedged all the way up.
My aggressive short bond positions are still delivering some nice profits even though we only have 14 days to expiration, despite the fact the bond market went almost nowhere. That’s because time decay is really starting to kick in.
That takes my 2020 YTD return up to +10.32%. That compares to a loss for the Dow Average of -10.93%. My trailing one-year return exploded to 51.09%, nearly an all-time high. My eleven-year average annualized profit exploded to +34.87%.
The only numbers that count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here.
On Monday, June 1 at 10:00 AM EST, The US Manufacturing PMI for May is published.
On Tuesday, June 2 at 10:30 AM EST, weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks are released.
On Wednesday, June 3, at 8:15 AM EST, The ADP Private Employment Report is announced.
On Thursday, June 4 at 8:30 AM EST, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. I’ll be busy all day with the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit.
On Friday, June 5, at 8:30 AM EST, the May Nonfarm Payroll Report is out. It may be the worst on record.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM EST.
As for me, my original plan this summer was to take a one-week cruise in Tahiti, lead an expedition to excavate more dog tags from Marines missing in action on Guadalcanal, perform a one-week roadshow for clients in New Zealand and Australia, Fly to South Africa for a one-week safari with my kids, and then cool my heels climbing the Matterhorn and thinking great thoughts at my summer home in Zermatt, Switzerland.
This will be the first time in eight years I have not climbed the great mountain. Don’t worry, I have already emailed the Zermatt Mountain Rescue Service and told them I won’t be able to help out this year because the town is closed.
Covid-19 had other ideas.
Instead, I will be commuting back and forth between San Francisco and Lake Tahoe by Tesla Model X, writing four newsletters a day, issuing uncountable trade alerts, and then taking a daily ten-mile hike to the Tahoe Rim Trail with a 40-pound backpack. Safer and much cheaper.
There’s no rest for the wicked. There’s always next year.
Stay healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Back Into Storage for Next Year
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/60120-image.png442613Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-06-01 09:02:372020-06-01 09:28:27The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Country that is Falling Apart
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader May 20Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: Do you believe chairman Powell when he says no negative rates?
A: I do believe that he does not want negative rates—that would be hugely detrimental to the economy. Europe and Japan have been trying them for the last ten years and they absolutely do not work. When it costs something to deposit money in the bank, people take it out of the financial system and hide it under their mattresses or buy gold (GLD). Although Powell doesn’t want negative rates, he may not have a choice; the market’s already taking them there in the futures market one year out. If we do get a big second wave of corona in the fall, and we do go to new lows in the stock market, and unemployment goes to new highs, negative rates will happen on their own whether Powell wants them or not.
Q: What is your best metric for determining when this bounce is over?
A: We passed those metrics on when a normal bounce is over weeks and weeks ago, and it just keeps going up. If you’ll notice, I have no stocks right now. I have some balanced long and short stock indexes but that’s it. My big trade is short bonds. When an asset class is no longer attractive, avoid it like Covid-19.
Q: What range should I wait for to buy the Proshares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETF (SDS)?
A: I’m really only using (SDS) as a hedge to limit the risk on much bigger long positions that I may have. (SDS) doesn’t lend itself to normal technical analysis because it is an artificial construct.
Q: What price to get into Tesla (TSLA)?
A: If you look at the Tesla chart, it's almost exactly the same as all of the other FANGS, as it’s essentially becoming the next FANG. So, they will trade with the FANGS for that reason, at least in the short term. Don’t buy it here, wait for the next major selloff to $600 or so. We actually had a bunch of concierge customers to buy long term leaps under $500 dollars in March, and they got 500% returns in 3 weeks.
Q: Why didn’t we just buy the ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) and go to sleep for five years?
A: If you recall, I was actually recommending just that in March when (ROM) was trading in the $80s, and we actually had a (ROM) position that we got stopped out of. The (ROM) is the 2x long technology ETF that's gone from $80 to $160 since the market bottomed almost 2 months ago.
Q: Why do you keep using deep in the money put spreads and call spreads?
A: You use them when volatility is very high like it is now—right now the Volatility Index (VIX) is at $28. The normal price is at $14 or $15, and we’ve just come down from $80. Even in the high $20s, you still get huge payoffs (like 10% a month) per call and put spread. As long as (VIX) is that high, we’ll keep doing them. They are also the perfect trade to have in range trading markets like we’ve had for the past month. They give you a nice extra kicker on your P&L.
Q: What is the worst-case scenario?
A: We get a second wave of the virus, another couple hundred thousand Americans die, the stock market goes to new lows, and we have a presidential election. How’s that for a worst-case scenario? Other than that, how is your day going?
Q: Do you trade pre and post market?
A: No; I used to when I ran my hedge fund, but I don’t do anything now if it’s beyond the capability of most individuals. I only want to put out trade alerts that people can get done. So, I'm only trading US hours. The reason you trade overseas is that you always get the highest highs and lowest lows in the Asian markets. During the late 1990s, I was the number one or two volume trader in the Singapore futures market.
Q: Do you think the 200-day moving average will be substantial resistance to the market?
A: I think absolutely yes, and I also believe that the only downside trigger for a major breakdown in the market is a second corona wave.
Q: If we get negative interest rates, would (SDS) fall?
A: No, (SDS) is a 2X bear (SPY) ETF that would go through the roof because negative rates would only happen if the stock market was collapsing. You might get a double on (SDS) on a second corona wave and negative interest rates. That’s why I’m keeping my position.
Q: Could the market just keep going up with no major pullbacks if the Fed keeps stimulating the economy?
A: Yes, and that’s what has been happening. Jerome Powell has said that the Fed’s ability to borrow is unlimited, therefore the amount of stimulus they can keep throwing is also unlimited, and if that’s what happens, all of that money will go into financial assets, even if the real economy is in utter freefall (which it has been). You can’t rule out anything these days. You always have to trade with the belief that anything can happen at any time.
Q: I need help setting up Long term Equity Participation Securities (LEAPS). Is there a video on that?
A: You can take all the educational videos we have on call spreads and put spreads, and everything applies exactly the same, except that instead of doing a one-month maturity, you do a two-year maturity. If you play around with the maturity tab on your platform, you can find the longest dated maturity on each option series. Sometimes, it’s only a year, sometimes all the way up to 2.5 years.
Q: Are there any other options besides the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) to short the bond market?
A: Yes, there’s the ProShares Ultra Short 20 Year Treasury ETF (TBT); that’s a 2x short bond market ETF. But you don’t get anywhere near the leverage that we have in the (TLT) put options spreads.
Q: Do you expect a return in inflation with all the stimulus going on?
A: Absolutely yes; food prices have already increased 20%—that will be a big inflationary push. Another $14 trillion in government QE and spending hitting the economy is also highly inflationary. And a lot of the price cuts which fueled deflation are ending as global supply chains are cut and the US food distribution system breaks down.
Q: Is the Great Depression on the table?
A: We are in a Great Depression now that is already far worse than the last one, except that this one will be shorter than the decade seen in the 1930s.
Q: How long will it take for unemployment to recover to the December 2019 3.5% unemployment lows?
A: We will never get back to those lows. A lot of that was over employment (artificial employment), with a lot of temporary marginal workers being picked up. And the net effect of the epidemic will be to make businesses forcibly more efficient; that means getting a lot more done with a lot fewer workers. So, I don't think we’ll ever see that 3.5% rate again. Economists are predicting that the next new low in unemployment may be 5% or 6%, and even that could take 2 or 3 years to get there.
Q: Will the market soar on vaccine news?
A: Well probably not; I would bet that two-thirds of any real vaccines are already in the price. We are getting vaccine announcements every day and the market is immediately discounting it, so when we actually do get the real thing, we may get a rally of only a few days and that’s it. We also won’t know for many months if it is real and is moved to mass production.
Q: If you would buy one restaurant, what would it be?
A: None; I would not touch the restaurants here with a 10-foot pole. None of the restaurant chains have any prospect of making a profit, except for maybe the ones that already had takeout models like Subway or Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Some hedge funds are buying Darden (DRI), but with their money, not mine.
Q: Should I double my short position in volatility (VIX)?
A: No, not down here, especially after a huge run in the stock market like we had—a 40% rise off the bottom. If we do get above $50 though, I will be shorting volatility then.
Q: I bought the (BOTZ) AI and robotics ETF, on your recommendation—it’s now almost double off the lows. What should I do with it now?
A: Short term, take profits, long term keep it. I think the (BOTZ) doubles again from these levels, and I know some of you out there bought LEAPS on the (BOTZ) at the lows and you’re up 1,000% on those. If you have a 1,000% profit take it, you probably won’t get another one in your lifetime.
Q: Time to refi the house?
A: No, I think refi rates are artificially high now (and totally out of line with the bond market) because the default rate is so high—8%. Once that default rate starts to drop, the interest rate on mortgages should also fall, and I think you could see 2.5% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Europe has had 0% rates for almost 10 years, and their home mortgages are at 2%, so that’s ultimately how low we could go.
Q: Are you worried about the debt related to Crown Castle International (CCI)?
A: No because they’re putting all the debt to good use and they can always refi at lower rates. There is no question that the demand for cell phone towers is going to be enormous—epidemic or not, because of the roll-out of 5G phones.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/John-Thomas.jpg454350Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-21 13:04:522020-06-22 11:46:14May 20 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
(TEN UGLY MESSAGES FROM THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT), (USO), (GLD), (GS), (SPY)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-14 08:04:592020-05-14 09:04:53May 14, 2020
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
