(TLT) Archives - Page 80 of 102 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Recession Has Begun

I hate to be the one to fart in church here, but the long-feared recession has already started.

It’s not a conventional recession defined by two back to back quarters of negative GDP growth, although you have a tough time convincing anyone in the besieged auto, real estate, or agricultural sectors of that.

No, this is more of a growth recession. US GDP growth peaked at a 4.4% annualized rate during the second quarter of 2018. The third quarter came in at 3.4% and the four quarter at only 2.6%. Consensus forecasts for Q1 2019 are well below 1%, thanks to the government shutdown.

That means the growth rate has fallen by an eye-popping 76% in nine months! By the way, the government has told us that economic growth has been rising this entire time. But want the stimulus from the 2017 tax bill were spent, there were no more bullets left.

If it were just the GDP data that was falling off a cliff, I wouldn’t be so worried. However, the weakness is confirmed by a raft of other data. The ten year US Treasury bond (TLT) remains stuck around 2.75%, an incredibly low figure given that we are ten years into an economic recovery.

Corporate earnings growth forecasts going forward are now at zero. To see a market multiple of 18X for stocks with no growth and prices that are just short of all-time highs defies belief. This will all lead us to a REAL recession sometime in the near future.

What we are left with is a market of very low return, high-risk trades, not the kind you want to pursue, let alone bet the ranch on.

I believe that when the BIG ONE finally arrives, it won’t be all that bad. I’m looking for a short, sharp recession of maybe six months in duration. There really isn’t that much leverage in the system that can blow up. It might even not be worth selling out all your stocks to avoid it, especially if it results in a giant tax bill.

You would also be selling in front of my coming Golden Age for the United States when a huge demographic tailwind brings a new era of prosperity. If you are smart enough to get out at the top now, will you also be clever enough to get back in at the bottom? Or will you sell more instead, like you did in December?

Merger fever hit the gold industry with Barrick Gold (GOLD) taking a run at Newmont Mining (NEM), the world’s first and second largest producers. It’s all about efficiencies of scale. Take this as a long-term bottom in gold prices.

The China tariff hike was postponed indefinitely, and Chinese stocks love it. Import duties will stay at 10%, instead of rising by 25% starting last Friday. We knew it was never going to happen.

Some 95% of the China trade deal is now already priced into the market. If a deal DOESN’T get done and goes the way of the North Korean negotiations, the market will very quickly back out that 95%.

Poor economic data was to be found everywhere you looked. Wholesale Inventories rose sharply, up 1.1% in another recession indicator. US Factory Orders came in incredibly weak at 0.1% in December when 0.6% was expected. Recession indicator number one million. Limit your risk.

Our friend Jay stayed dovish again, but markets yawned this time. How much mileage can you get from the same vague assertion? Shorts are about to swarm the market. Take profits on all longs.

The US Dollar hit a three-week low. The Fed’s dovish leanings are hammering the buck. Keep loading the boat with weak dollar plays, like emerging markets (EEM).

Bonds got crushed delivering their worst week in five months, down three points as the great “crowding out” begins. Massive corporate borrowing can’t compete with government borrowing, so rates are rising sharply. This is the beginning of the end. Sell short the (TLT).

February came in at a hot +4.16% for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. My 2019 year-to-date return ratcheted up to +13.64%, a new all-time high and boosting my trailing one-year return back up to +31.90%.

My nine-year return clawed its way up to +313.78%, another new high. The average annualized return appreciated to +33.94%.

I am now 80% in cash, 10% long gold (GLD), and 10% short bonds (TLT). We have managed to catch every major market trend this year, loading the boat with technology stocks at the beginning of January, selling short bonds, and buying gold (GLD). I am trying to avoid stocks until the China situation resolves itself one way or the other.

As for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, it is short Apple (AAPL).

Q4 earnings reports are pretty much done, so the coming week will be all about jobs, jobs, jobs.

On Monday, March 4, at 10:00 AM EST, December Construction Spending is published.

On Tuesday, March 5, 10:00 AM EST, December New Home Sales are out.

On Wednesday, March 6 at 10:00 AM EST, the February ADP Employment Report is out, a measure of private sector hiring.

Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 AM EST, we get Weekly Jobless Claims.

On Friday, March 8 at 8:30 AM EST, we get the February Nonfarm Payroll Report is released. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I’m taking the kids to see Hello Dolly in San Francisco. This was one of my parents’ favorite Broadway musicals, and they used to sing the songs around the house all day long. However, it won’t be the same without the late Carol Channing.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 1, 2019

Tech Letter

Global Market Comments
March 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL FRIDAY TECH EDITION

Featured Trade:
(ABOUT THE TRADE ALERT DROUGHT),
(SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (MSFT),

About the Trade Alert Drought

Tech Letter

Long term subscribers are well aware that I sent out a flurry of Trade Alerts at the beginning of the year, almost all of which turned out to be profitable.

Unfortunately, if you came in any time after January 17 you watched us merrily take profits on position after position, whetting your appetite for more.

However, there was nary a new Trade Alert to be had, nothing, nada, and even bupkiss. This has been particularly true with particular in technology stocks.

There is a method to my madness.

I was willing to bet big that the Christmas Eve massacre on December 24 was the final capitulation bottom of the whole Q4 move down, and might even comprise the grand finale for an entire bear market.

So when the calendar turned the page, I went super aggressive, piling into a 60% leverage long positions in technology stocks. My theory was that the stocks that had the biggest falls would lead the recovery with the largest rises. That is exactly how things turned out.

As the market rose, I steadily fed my long positions into it. As of today we are 80% cash and are up a ballistic 13.51% in 2019. My only remaining positions are a long in gold (GLD) and a short in US Treasury bonds (TLT), both of which are making money.

So, you’re asking yourself, “Where’s my freakin' Trade Alert?

To quote my late friend, Chinese premier Deng Xiaoping, “There is a time to fish, and there is time to mend the nets.” This is now time to mend the nets.

Stocks have just enjoyed one of their most prolific straight line moves in history, up some 20% in nine weeks. Indexes are now more overbought than at any time in history. We have gone from the best time on record to buy shares to the worst time in little more than two months.

My own Mad Hedge Market Timing Index is now reading a nosebleed 72. Not to put too fine a point on it, but you would be out of your mind to buy stocks here. It would be trading malpractice and professional negligent to rush you into stocks at these high priced level.

Yes, I know the competition is pounding you with trade alerts every day. If they work, it is by accident as these are entirely generated by young marketing people. Notice that none of them publish their performance, let alone on a daily basis like I do.

You can’t sell short either because the “I’s” have not yet been dotted nor the “T’s” crossed on the China trade deal. It is impossible to quantify greed in rising markets, nor to measure the limit of the insanity of buyers.

When I sold you this service I promised to show you the “sweet spots” for market entry points. Sweet spots don’t occur every day, and there are certainly none now. If you get a couple dozen a year, you are lucky.

What do you buy at market highs? Cheap stuff. That would include all the weak dollar plays, including commodities, oil, gold, silver, copper, platinum, emerging markets, and yes, China, all of which are just coming out of seven-year BEAR markets.

After all, you have to trade the market you have in front of you, not the one you wish you had.

So, now is the time to engage in deep research on countries, sectors, and individual names so when a sweet spot doesn’t arrive, you can jump in with confidence and size. In other words, mend your net.

Sweet spots come and sweet spots go. Suffice it to say that there are plenty ahead of us. But if you lose all your money first chasing margin trades, you won’t be able to participate.

By the way, if you did buy my service recently, you received an immediate Trade Alert to by Microsoft (MSFT). Let’s see how those did.

In December, you received a Trade Alert to buy the Microsoft (MSFT) January 2019 $90-$95 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread at $4.40 or best.

That expired at a maximum profit point of $1,380. If you bought the stock it rose by 10%.

In January, you received a Trade Alert to buy the Microsoft (MSFT) February 2019 $85-$90 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread at $4.00 or best.

That expired last week at a maximum profit point of $1,380. If you bought the stock it rose by 12%.

So, as promised, you made enough on your first Trade Alert to cover the entire cost of your one-year subscription ON THE FIRST TRADE!

The most important thing you can do now is to maintain discipline. Preventing people from doing the wrong thing is often more valuable than encouraging them to do the right thing.

That is what I am attempting to accomplish today with this letter.

February 27, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY CHINA’S US TREASURY DUMP WILL CRUSH THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX), (FCX), (FXE), (FXY), (FXA),
(USO), (OXY), (ITB), (LEN), (HD), (GLD), (SLV), (CU),
(THE 13 NEW TRADING RULES FOR 2019)

Why China’s US Treasury Dump Will Crush the Bond Market

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Years ago, if you asked traders what one event would destroy financial markets, the answer was always the same: China dumping its $1 trillion US treasury bond hoard.

It looks like Armageddon is finally here.

Once again, the Chinese boycotted this week’s US Treasury bond auction.

With a no-show like this, you could be printing a 2.90% yield in a couple of weeks. It also helps a lot that the charts are outing in a major long term double top.

You may read the president’s punitive duties on Chinese solar panels as yet another attempt to crush California’s burgeoning solar installation industry. I took it for what it really was: a signal to double up my short in the US Treasury bond market.

For it looks like the Chinese finally got the memo. Exploding American deficits have become the number one driver of all asset classes, perhaps for the next decade.

Not only are American bonds about to fall dramatically in value, so is the US dollar (UUP) in which they are denominated. This creates a double negative hockey stick effect on their value for any foreign investor.

In fact, you can draw up an all assets class portfolio based on the assumption that the US government is now the new debt hog:

Stocks – buy inflation plays like Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and US Steel (X)
Emerging Markets – Buy asset producers like Chile (ECH)
Bonds – run a double short position in the (TLT)
Foreign Exchange – buy the Euro (FXE), Yen (FXY), and Aussie (FXA)
Commodities – Buy copper (CU) as an inflation hedge
Energy – another inflation beneficiary (USO), (OXY)
Precious Metals – entering a new bull market for gold (GLD) and silver (SLV)

Yes, all of sudden everything has become so simple, as if the fog has suddenly been lifted.

Focus on the US budget deficit which has soared from $450 billion a year ago to over $1 trillion today on its way to $2 trillion later this year, and every investment decision becomes a piece of cake.

This exponential growth of US government borrowing should take the US National Debt from $22 to $30 trillion over the next decade.

I have been dealing with the Chinese government for 45 years and have come to know them well. They never forget anything. They are still trying to get the West to atone for three Opium Wars that started 180 years ago.

Imagine how long it will take them to forget about washing machine duties?

By the way, if I look uncommonly thin in the photo below it’s because there was a famine raging in China during the Cultural Revolution in which 50 million died. You couldn’t find food to buy in the countryside for all the money in the world. This is when you find out that food has no substitutes. The Chinese government never owned up to it.

February 26, 2019