(TSLA) Archives

June 1 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the June 1 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley.

Q: What are the 3 best stocks to own for the end of the year?

A: Apple (AAPL), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). Those you want to buy on meltdown days, kind of like today. Make sure you scale into these—so maybe buy 20% on every down-500-point Dow day. Eventually, you’ll end up with a pretty decent position at a market low in a stock that will double in 3-5 years.

Q: Why these three stocks?

A: Lots of reasons: They’re huge, they’re safe, two out of three pay dividends, Alphabet is about to split, and they have huge moats so nobody can get into their sectors. They have near monopolies in what they do, and they have immense cash on the balance sheet. These are the kind of stocks that portfolio managers dream about. And watch what rallied the hardest in the last dead cat bounce we had—it was these three names. That tells you that they will lead any long-term bull market in the future. These are the stocks that people want to own.

Q: What will bring your predicted second half-bull market in the stock market?

A: Inflation drops from 8% to 4%. That will happen for a couple of reasons. The year-on-year comparisons become highly favorable starting from next month when inflation started to take off a year ago. Inflation numbers are going to be climbing the wall of worry from here on out. That could get us down to 4% by the end of the year. The second reason is the Ukraine War either ends or becomes a stalemate and is no longer a factor in the global markets, and we’ve had time to replace all the Russian oil and Ukrainian wheat.

Q: Are banks positioned to benefit from the coming rally?

A: Absolutely. I think big tech and banks will be the top-performing stock sectors for the next five years because inflation will go away, recession fears will go expire, and credit quality will improve, but interest rates will remain 300 basis points higher than they were during the pandemic. Buy (JPM), (BAC), and (C) on dips.

Q: What will be the worst performing sector?

A: Energy—anything energy-related will get absolutely slaughtered, which is why I don't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole right now. That includes oil companies, exploration companies, E&P companies, and master limited partnerships, as well as coal and other natural gas stocks. So, if you’re long these names don’t forget to sit down when the music stops playing. You could get your head handed to you at the end.

Q: Can we make lower lows?

A: Yes, that’s entirely possible. Market moves are basically random when you get down to these levels— down more than 20%. And on all future downturns, I would be spending your cash going back into the market expecting a second half rally.

Q: What about green energy?

A: Unfortunately, green energy is very tied to old energy because $120 oil makes green companies much more competitive from a cost point of view. So, I’m not going to go piling into green companies right here, especially if I think oil is topping out in the near future. Buying green energy companies here is the same as buying oil at $120 a barrel.

Q: What is the best way to play the declining US dollar?

A: Buy the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Also, the Aussie dollar (FXA) and the Canadian Dollar (FXC), which benefit tremendously from commodity prices, which will rise for another decade in a global economic recovery.

Q: Why will energy be the worst sector?

A: If you end the war in the Ukraine or you replace Russian oil, either by finding new sources of oil, getting other producers to increase production which they can do (including the US), or by accelerating the move to alternatives, then you move oil back to pre-invasion prices which were about $70 a barrel or $50 lower than they are here.

Q: Best way to hedge a falling market?

A: Do what I'm doing: keep a balanced portfolio of longs and shorts, that way you always have something that’s going up. And if you do it through the options, you have time decay working for you on both sides of the equation. If you want to go outright, buy outright puts on individual stocks because they had double the moves of the indexes. And go to my short selling school which you can find by going to my website at https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com. There’s actually 12 different ways to benefit from falling markets.

Q: How deep in the money can we go on our call spreads?

A: Wait for the Volatility Index (VIX) to go over $30, and then go 15-20% in the money. And yes, you only make 10, 15, or 20% on those positions in a month but then you put together ten of them and that adds up to quite a lot of money. You want to find the position that has the greatest probability of happening—i.e. something that’s 20% in the money. Do that when the market has just dropped 20%, which it already has, and then you have a position that has a minuscule chance of losing money.

Q: How much longer do you see this current bear market bounce lasting?

A: Until yesterday.

Q: What's your favorite commodity ETF?

A: My favorite commodity stock is Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the world’s largest copper producer. Rather than pay the extra management fees for an ETF, I prefer just to go straight to the source and buy (FCX).

Q: When do you think the Fed will pivot to dovish or neutral?

A: This summer. It’s just a question of whether it’s the July or the September meeting.

Q: When you say “buy on dips”, what does that mean? 1%, 3%, 5%?

A: Well in this market, a dip would be a retest of the previous lows which is going to be down 10% or 15% on the major positions in your portfolio. If you’re day trading, a dip is only 1%, so it really depends on your timeframe and your risk tolerance. That’s why I always tell people to scale by doing everything in incremental pieces—20%, 25%, and so on. You never know what the market’s actually going to do on a short-term basis. Randomness can’t be predicted.

Q: If you plan to enter a LEAPS on Apple, what strikes would you do?

A: Well, first of all, I want to see if Apple drops all the way to $125, which is a lot of people’s downside target. If it did, then I would do the $125/$135 call spread two years out, and that will probably double. And if it starts a long term up trend, then I’ll keep rolling up the strike prices. If, say, Apple goes to $125, you put your LEAPS on. If the stock rises to 150, then take profits on the $125/$135 and roll into the $150/$160. That’s how you can get like 1,000% returns like we got on Tesla (TESLA) a few years ago. You just keep rolling up your strike prices on every weak day and maintain your leverage.

Q: When do we bet the farms on Editas Medicine Inc. (EDIT) and Crispr (CRSP) Therapeutics?

A: Never. These are small, highly speculative companies which will make money someday, but if the someday is in five years and you’re betting the farm with a LEAPS, you lose the farm. It's going to take a long time for these smaller biotech stocks to come back. If you want to play biotech, go with the big ones like Amgen. It takes a long time to convert cutting-edge technology into profits. The big companies already have a stable of reliable money-making drugs on hand.

Q: Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is up big on earnings—what should I do with the stock?

A: Buy the dips. It’s still way, way below its all-time highs, so use the weekdays to accumulate Salesforce for the long term. It’s one of the best cloud plays out there.

Q: What do you think about NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?

A: I absolutely love it. It rallied 20% off the bottom. Use any other additional weak days like today to increase your position. This stock someday is worth $1,000, up from today’s $195.

Q: Do you like SPACS?

A: No, I hate them and think they’re a rip-off. And a lot of them have become totally illiquid and untradable, so you have no choice but for them to shut down and return their money if they have any left. I’ve hated SPACS from day one and people are now getting their comeuppance on these.

Q: What do you think about the weakness in Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) down here?

A: It’s just going down with all the other high-risk, speculative, meme stock type plays, which include all of the crypto plays like Bitcoin. I would avoid all of those. You want to buy quality at the discount now, and you want to buy the Cadillacs at Volkswagen prices and leave the speculative plays for the next generation, Gen Z, who are already highly interested in stocks.

Q: What is your favorite non-US country to invest in?

A: Australia, because you get a double play there on the currency, which should go up 30% from here, and they will benefit from a global commodity boom which continues for another ten years. They pretty much sell a lot of the major commodities like iron ore, wheat, sheep, and so on. It’s also a really nice country to visit. The only negative with Australia are the sharks.

Q: Biotech takeover targets?

A: Well (EDIT) and (CRSP) would be two of them. Things in the sector are so cheap that they are all potential takeover targets. M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) will be a major play in the biotech sector for the foreseeable future.

Q: Should we sell short the defense industry here?

A: No, even if the war ends tomorrow, you might get some profit-taking, but the fact is that long term military spending is increasing permanently. The peace dividend now has to be paid back, and that is great for all the defense companies, so I would not be shorting them. If anything, I’d be buying on dips. Buy Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), who make the Javelin antitank missile for which there is now a two-year order backlog. You can also throw in General Dynamics (GD) for good measure which builds nuclear submarines and the Stryker armored vehicle.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Keep Those Defense Plays

May 20, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 20, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MAY 18 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(C), (FXI), (BABA), (TSLA), (AAPL), (AMZN), (TGT), (FLR), (QQQ),
(FB), (ARKK), (TSLA), (WYNN), (UAL), (ALK), (DAL)

May 18 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the May 18 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley.

Q: When do you see the banks returning to glory?

A: When recession fears go away, which should happen this summer. A recession will either have come and gone, or we will have confirmation by the end of summer that there is no recession in sight for the next few years at least. This will likely trigger a monster rally in the banks, which could all jump 50% from here. Obviously, Warren Buffet is putting his money where his mouth is by loading up on Citibank (C) yesterday. This would take us to new all-time highs by the end of the year. So, again, use these down-1000-point days to go cherry-picking among the generals who have been executed. If that’s not mixing metaphors, I don’t know what is!

Q: Should I listen to CNBC?

A: No, do not listen to the talking heads on TV. They are on TV because they don’t know how to make money. If they did know how to make money, they’d be locked up in a dark basement somewhere like me, grinding out millions for their firms. In fact, watching TV is the perfect money destruction machine because on down days, they bring out the uber bears, and on up days they bring up the hyper bulls. They are trying to egg you to get you to do the exact opposite of what you should be doing. They’re not interested in you making money; they’re interested in getting traffic on their websites and making money for themselves. CNBC can be highly dangerous to your financial health.

Q: Will we get stagflation?

A: No, because I think that once the year-on-year comparisons kick in—literally in a month or two—inflation will drop from the current 8.3% to down maybe 4% by the end of the year. That also is another factor in your monster second-half rally.

Q: Do you think the bounce in the market yesterday is the beginning of an upward trend or a dead cat bounce?

A: Definitely a dead cat bounce. I expect we’ll keep chopping around in the current range for the next 3, 4, and 5 months, and then we catapult into a monster year-end rally. That is a typical bottoming-type process.

Q: Is the wisdom “Go away in May” still alive or is your best bet that this year may prove different and the market goes up in the latter part of the year?

A: Actually, you should have gone away in November. That’s when all tech stocks peaked; only energy went up after that. If you’d gone away in November and said “come back in August” that would have been a good strategy because I think that’s when the year-end rally begins. If anything, May could be the bottom of the entire move.

Q: Is it time for LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities)?

A: Not yet—it’s too soon for LEAPS territory. You only want to do LEAPS when you are on a sustained long-term uptrend in a stock. We are nowhere near sustained anything, we are still in a bottoming phase, and could be there for months. At the end of those months is when we’ll be looking at LEAPS, where you can double your money every 6 months.

Q: Is it time to start nibbling on China stocks (FXI) now that COVID news is marginally better?

A: I’m going to avoid Chinese stocks because the American ones are so much better. You want to buy the quality at the discount, not the marginal, high-risk political footballs at a discount. And China will remain high-risk as long as they are abandoning capitalism. If you have to buy one Chinese stock, I would say Alibaba (BABA); you could get a double on that. But remember it is a high-risk trade—if the Chinese government wants to roll Jack Ma up in a carpet and kidnap him to Western Chinese re-education camp, the stock will get slaughtered. And that’s been happening increasingly with the heads of major companies in the Middle Kingdom.

Q: When this current route comes to an end, should we look to enter the market with 50% margin on stocks like Tesla (TSLA)?

A: It’s never sensible to go to 50% margin because if the stocks drop 50%, you are completely wiped out—you’ve lost everything. Plus, coming back from a loss is one thing; coming back from zero is impossible. So, I would not recommend that. You might do a safe stock like Apple (APPL), with a 2% dividend, and then at least you’re getting a double dividend. You only do the 50% margin on the safest, high dividend stocks.

Q: Amazon (AMZN) is on its way down. What is your expectation for the $3200/$3400 vertical bull call spread in January 2023?

A: I think you could make money on that. It may not be the full amount of the spread, but you’ll definitely get a big increase from current levels, because when we do get a second half rally, it will be tech-led, and Amazon has already had a horrific decline. What you might consider is rolling your strike down, taking the loss on the 3200/3400 and rolling down to like a $2,000/$2,200 in twice the size, and you’ll make your money back that way.

Q: For those of us thinking about LEAPS, how should we start to buy in—20, 30, 50% right now?

A: Well, first of all, you only do them on down days like today, when the market is down 800, and you scale in. 20% now, 20% higher or lower, and 20% again higher or lower. But you really want to be saving cash for days like this because You want to feel smarter than everybody else, and they absolutely will hit any bid on a down day, and that's where your LEAPS fills are really excellent, is on a down day like this.

Q: Can the Fed avoid another policy mistake? Because it seems that not only are they heading for high inflation, but layoffs are coming as well, and even with that I’m sure they will perform a soft landing of sorts.

A: For sure, when you take massive amounts of stimulus out of the economy, as we have in the last year, that is recessionary. In fact, the US government is close to running a balance budget right now because Biden can’t get anything through Congress other than money for Ukraine. Good for Ukraine economy, not for ours. And yes, they can do a soft landing, but has it ever been done before? No. Though this is the Fed that just keeps on surprising, so who knows. In the meantime, I'm willing to trade the ranges, and that may be all you get to do for a while.

Q: Target (TGT) shares are down 25%, as they cited higher costs that will result in rising prices for their customers. Would you buy the dip?

A: No, I generally don’t like retailers anyway. It’s a business that operates on a 2% profit margin. I like 40 or 50% profit margin businesses—those tend to be technology stocks.

Q: Would you buy retailers going into a recession?

A: No, that’s the worst thing in the world to own.

Q: Could Fluor Corp (FLR) be a Ukraine infrastructure stock?

A: Yes, once the war ends there will be a massive effort to rebuild Ukraine. Every company in the world will be involved, and Fluor and Bechtel will be the biggest, though Fluor is the only one where you can buy the stock. We already have the money to do this with all of the money that was seized from Russia. I predict discount sales on mega yachts.

Q: Why do you think all that money is going to Ukraine?

A: Because a weakened Russia is in the national interest of the United States, and it’s better that their soldiers are doing the dying than ours. I’ve done the latter and definitely prefer the former, using the other country's’soldiers as cannon fodder.

Q: On down days like today, should I be putting on one-month trades like the June options?

A: Yes, because the minimizes your risk and cuts the cost of mistakes. Waiting for the second half of the year when we get a prolonged uptrend to look at LEAPS—that is the correct way to do it.

Q: Over the next 12 months, do you think the S&P 500 will outperform Nasdaq?

A: No—for the next 3 months the S&P 500 will outperform NASDAQ. After that, NASDAQ will become an enormous outperformer for the rest of the decade. So, choose your entry points wisely.

Q: Do you think that housing is peaking out and will start to decline?

A: No, we still have a long-term structural shortage of 10 million homes in the US and I think we will flatline housing for years until we catch up with that shortfall.

Q: What are your thoughts on the Metaverse?

A: Too soon. Right now, the Metaverse involves spending only—no revenues. It could be years before you actually see any profits. So that’s why I'm avoiding Meta or Facebook (FB). But then, you could have made the same argument about the internet 25 years ago and semiconductors 50 years ago. If you waited long enough, however, you obviously made a fortune.

Q: China is hoarding 69% of their wheat reserves. Is this because they plan to invade Taiwan?

A: No, it’s because there’s a global food crisis going on. Many countries, like India, have banned exports of food to protect themselves. People miss this about China: China will never have a war or invade anybody, because the second they do, their food supplies get cut off by us, who are the world’s largest producer of food. Plus, their trade would get shut off to pay for it, so they can’t buy it from somewhere else, and that’s done with us also. So, they need to be in our good graces in order to eat. That's the bottom line and that’s why Taiwan will never get invaded. Russia’s economy can operate independently for a while, but China’s can’t.

Q: Is the baby food shortage further evidence of a food crisis?

A: No, the baby formula crisis is being caused by a monopoly of three companies that control 100% of the baby food market; and the largest of these companies, accounting for a 40% market share of the baby food making, is producing baby food that is poisonous. That's why they got shut down. This has been going on for years, and for some reason, they got a free pass on regulation and inspections by the previous administration, which is ending now, and all of a sudden we’re finding out that 40% of the country’s baby food is contaminated and is being pulled off the market. So, it really has nothing to do with the global food crisis. That’s more related to Climate change—surprise, surprise—as it’s not raining in the right places like California, the war in Ukraine, which removed 13% of the world’s calories practically overnight.

Q: Should I bet the farm here with the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK)? I like Cathie Woods’ bet on innovation or five-year time horizon. It’s a great thing, don’t you think?

A: Not so great when you drop 70% in the last year. And it is a high-risk bet that of her ten largest holding companies, you only need one of them to work for the fund to bring in a decent return. Of course, you may have to write off nine other companies to do that. But yes, it’s a great thing to own on the way up, not so great on the way down. I know some people who started scaling into ARK in November and came to regret it. I would wait on it—this is your highest leverage technology play, and if you really want some punishment, there’s a hedge fund that’s bringing out a 2X long ARK fund in the next couple of months. Then it’s basically option money you’re throwing out. If you want to put some money in that, you could get a 10x on the 2x ETF if you’re playing a recovery in ARK. So watch it; don’t touch it now because ARK is having another heart attack today, but something to consider if you like gambling.

Q: I am full up with a thousand shares of PayPal (PYPL). It’s now down 76%. What should I do?

A: I recommend you learn the art of stop losses. I stopped out of this thing last fall, and it’s continued to go down virtually every day. Whenever you buy a new position, automatically enter into your spreadsheet your stop loss for that position. Because things can drop by 80 or 90% and you work too hard for your money to throw it away on these big losses.

Q: What do you think about Steve Wynn and Wynn Hotels?

A: I’d be buying down here down 62%; it was announced today that Steve Wynn has secretly been acting as an agent for the Chinese government where (WYNN) has a major part of its operations. Who knew? With all those high rollers being flown in on private jets from China, sitting at the tables in the closed rooms. So yes, this is a recovery play and it will do just as well as all other recovery plays, but remember it’s a China recovery play. And I think, in any case, his ex-wife owns a big part of the company anyway. So I don’t think Steve Wynn is that closely connected with Wynn hotels because of past transgressions with the female staff.

Q: Is it time to scale into Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)?

A: I’d say yes. On a longer-term view, I expect (FCX) to go to $100. And for those who have the May $32/$35 call spread that expires on Friday, my bet is that you get the max profit—but you may not sleep before then.

Q: What do you have to say about a post-Putin scenario and impact on the market?

A: The day Putin dies of a heart attack, you can count on the market being up 10%, if that happens right now—less if it happens at a later date. But it would be hugely bullish for the entire global stock market, and oil would also collapse, which is why I refuse to put on oil plays here. That is a risk. Putin can give up, have an accident, or get overthrown. When the Russian people see their standard of living decline by 90%, this is a country that has a long history of revolutions, putting their leaders in front of firing squads and throwing the bodies down wells. So, if I were Putin, I wouldn't be sleeping very well right now.

Q: What's the reason for air tickets (UAL), (ALK), (DAL) going up sharply?

A: 1. Shortage of airplanes 2. Soaring fuel costs 3. Labor shortages and strikes 4. It is all proof of an economy that is definitely NOT going into recession.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Stay Healthy,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

With Lieutenant Uhuru

May 13, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 13, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR)
(HOW TO GET A FREE TESLA), (TSLA),
(TESTIMONIAL)

How to Get A Free Tesla

Diary, Newsletter

I have assiduously instructed readers how to earn boatloads of money over the past 14 years.

Now I am going to teach you how to spend it wisely.

Tesla was once again at $680 a share at yesterday’s low and history has shown that it is time to pay attention.

How would you like to drive a vehicle whose technology is from ten years in the future, will be the envy of your neighbors, and leaves zero carbon footprint? It is also the fastest production car ever built. Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?

I bet if I told you that the car was available for free, you’d be even more interested.

Here’s how it goes.

Buried in the tax bill signed into law in December 2017 is a provision for “bonus depreciation.” It allows companies the depreciation of the entire cost of a new car for business use over 5 years. All of this is tax deductible.

In addition, you get to deduct all of the annual interest on any loan taken out to purchase the vehicle. Also coming off the bottom line is any insurance and maintenance expenses which, in my experience, come to about $6,000 a year.

If you spend $125,000 for the new model, total deductions over a five-year period is about $155,000,

In five years, the car will have a residual value of $70,000, and the $85,000 in additional costs is covered by the tax breaks, taking the bottom-line after-tax cost of your new mid-life crisis to zero.

If all of this sounds impossible don’t worry. I’ve done it three times.

Now, here’s how to get a better deal.

Call Tesla and ask if they have any used 2022 showroom cars they want to get rid of before the new model year begins. In my case, I was able to find in Los Angeles a 2022 Model X P100 D SUV with just 800 miles on the odometer for a $25,000 discount to the $125,000 list price.

It was a total LA car, silver with black wheels and a black leather interior. They added on a $5,000 advanced navigation system and a $3,000 seven-seat configuration for free.

Tesla lists their used car inventory at https://www.tesla.com/inventory/used/ms. You may have to get a live Tesla salesman on the line to find the 2022 showroom cars.

For those of you who own your own companies or work through single-member LLCs, this is a no-brainer. If you work for a big company, it may be tougher to pull off. Talk to your accountant before you do anything.

This is exactly what I did which led me to pick up a brand-new Tesla during a torrential rainstorm. It was then that I truly learned what Elon Musk has recently referred to as “Logistics Hell.”

For a start, my car was supposed to be delivered to me at my lakefront estate in Incline Village, Nevada. But Tesla could only get it from Los Angeles to as far as the Fremont factory before the logistics system completely broke down. I agreed to pick it up at Fremont to cut a week off the delivery time and before the heavy snow hit.

When I arrived at the showroom, it was completely empty so I had to wait an hour. Out front were 100 parking spaces filled mostly with Tesla 3’s, and animated technicians showing new owners how to operate them. I was told that the parking lot is completely filled and then emptied out three times a day. (TSLA) is now producing 1,000 Tesla 3’s a day now.

When I finally got my turn, I discovered to my horror that the car was registered in the wrong name. When the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles was told that the new registered owner was “Mad Hedge Fund Trader,” they were somewhat taken aback.

The tow hitch I ordered was missing so the tech pulled one from a back room. The same happened with the second set of keys which are very expensive. I had to Google the tire specs which required me to crawl under the car and get soaked to make sure they were all season because no one there knew.

In the end, I was sent off with my $125,000 car, a box of parts, and a vague promise that a mechanic would visit me someday and put it all together.

This was not the experience I had when I picked up my Tesla in 2010 and 2016 when I was treated like visiting royalty. But I love the car anyway.

Then it really got interesting!

What is the first thing a new Tesla owner wants to try out? The monstrous zero to 60 mph acceleration in 2.9 seconds. And they do this the second they drive out of the parking lot. So, I was treated to dozens of aspiring Indy 500 drivers with giant smiles on their faces zipping around on rain-slick roads. I felt like I was in a shooting gallery.

Thank goodness I brought an extra supply of airline airsick bags!

My 400 Bagger

May 11, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

TECH DESERVES WHAT IT DESERVES)
(RBLX), (ARKK), (ROKU), (TDOC), (ZM), (TSLA), (GM)

Tech Deserves What It Deserves

Tech Letter

A bear market rally in tech would be an overwhelmingly healthy signal that the financial system is working in an orderly fashion.

Yet, as I say that, a looming recession inches closer.

How do I know that?

That was my first reaction when my eyes were stung by the headline of 8.3% inflation.

Sure, not a 10, but it is emblematic of the ongoing inflation concerns with items such as airplane tickets up 18% year over year in price.

Remember the consensus was that inflation pressures are trending towards peaking, potentially setting up for a nice bear market rally.

That narrative hit another catch-22, not as bad as it could have been, but clearly not great and prices biting at the backs of consumers.

The hope that inflation will be crammed back into the genie bottle is not going to happen until later this year and not for the right reasons.

Simply because comparables become easier to beat year over year.

Like I have mentioned in past tech letters, high-growth tech stocks are most sensitive to the fluctuation in rates and investors should be nowhere near growth funds like Cathy Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK).

Another head-scratching move was ARK’s Cathy Wood selling Tesla (TSLA) shares and rolling them into GM (GM).

This is for the lady who likes to tell us that we aren’t “doing the research.”

Betting against Elon Musk is a fool’s game.

When it comes to EVs, I would put money on Musk to defy any odds.

Tesla will outperform GM, especially amid a backdrop of lithium prices spiking and supply chain issues going haywire.

Musk is simply the anointed guy that knows how to work miracles.

He only developed the EV industry as he saw fit, invented reusable space rockets, cut the price of space exploration by 10, and reimagined tunneling construction technology.

And by the way, his Neuralink brain interface company is working on implanting chips in human brains so we don’t need to use our fingers on keyboard anymore.

I wouldn’t want to compete with this man and to believe that GM will be able to nimbly outmaneuver Musk who has the audacity to aggressively solve anything no matter how many people he pisses off is not an incremental bet on “innovation” that Wood likes to tout she is participating in.

Neither is the purchase of Roku (ROKU), Zoom (ZM), or Roblox (RBLX) which have all tanked since she put new money to work in them in late April.

Inflation at 8.3% means that the real rate of inflation is still -7.55% and until that’s addressed, any bear market rally will be viciously sold breaching further levels down below.

The carnage in the tech world is indicative at the dregs of the barrel.

Tech IPOs are toxic.

Market for new issues has been bereft throughout the first four-plus months of this year, and nothing that would move the needle is on the tech IPO radar for the duration of the second quarter.

Companies that were aiming to go out in the first half of 2022 have no appetite to continue down that path because there simply won’t be a bid.

Going public today would require a complete revaluation of their business and leave many late-stage investors and employees with out-of-money stock.

Grocery deliverer Instacart is the only company in that class that’s been forthright with its slowing valuation. In March, the company said it cut its valuation by about 40% to $24 billion.

That’s how bad it is out there at the bush league end of the tech sector and many of these stocks that are public such as Teladoc are down 80%.

I do believe that many of these loss-making growth techs are rightfully down 80%.

They had time to show a profit and they failed in the allotted amount of time they were given.

Every window closes and the market moves forward with or without them.

In the near term, I am bearish on the market but I do believe we are oversold which could feed into a dead cat bounce to sell on.

May 9, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 9, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HEADED FOR THE LEPER COLONY),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (BRKB), (TSLA), (GLD), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (NVDA)

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Headed for the Leper Colony

Diary, Newsletter, Research

My worst-case scenario for the S&P 500 this year was a dive of 20%. We are now off by 14%. And of course, most stocks are down a lot more than that.

Which means that we are getting close to the tag ends of this move. The kind of wild, daily 1,000-point move up and down we saw last week is typical of market bottoms.

Some $7 trillion in market capitalization lost this year. That means we could be down $10 trillion from a $50 trillion December high before this is all over. That’s a heck of a lot of wealth to disappear from the economy.

So, it may make sense to start scaling into the best quality names on the bad days in small pieces, like Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVIDIA (NVDA).

Whatever pain you may have to take what follows, the twofold to threefold gain that will follow over the next five years will make it well worth it. Is a 20% loss upfront worth a long-term gain of 200%? For most people, it is.

Bonds may also be reaching the swan song for their move as well. The United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) at $113 has already lost a gobsmacking $42 since the November $155 high.

The markets have already done much of the Fed’s work for it, discounting 200 basis points of an anticipated 350 basis points in rate rises in this cycle. Therefore, I wouldn’t get too cutesy piling on new bond shorts here just because it worked for five months.

Yes, there is another assured 50 basis point rise in six weeks towards the end of June. Jay Powell has effectively written that in stone. We might as well twiddle our fingers and keep playing the ranges until then. We have in effect been sent to the trading leper colony.

The barbarous relic (GLD) seems to be looking better by the day. Q1 saw a massive 551 metric tonnes equivalent pour into gold ETF equivalents, an increase of 203%. Of course, we already know of the step-up in Russian and Chinese demand to defeat western sanctions.

But the yellow metal is also drawing more traditional investment demand. Gold usually does poorly during rising interest rates. This time, it's different. An inflation rate of 8.5% minus an overnight Fed rate of 1.0%, leaving a real inflation rate of negative -7.5%. That means gold has 7.5% yield advantage over cash equivalents.

Gold’s day as an inflation hedge is back!

The April Nonfarm Payroll Report came in near-perfect at 459,000, holding the headline Unemployment Rate at 3.5%. It’s proof that a recession is nowhere near the horizon. A record 2 million workers have recovered jobs during the last four months and 6.6 million over the past 12.

Warren Buffet is Buying Stocks, some $51 billion in Q1. That includes $26 billion into California energy major Chevron (CVX), followed by a big bet on Occidental Petroleum (OXY). These are clearly a bet that oil will remain high for at least five more years. That has whittled his cash position down from $147 billion to only $106 billion. Buffet likes to keep a spare $100 billion on hand so he can take over a big cap at any time. Warren clearly eats his own cooking, buying $26 billion worth of his own stock in 2021. If you can’t afford the lofty $4,773 price for the “A” shares, try the “B” shares at $322.83, which also offer listed options on NASDAQ and in which Mad Hedge Fund Trader currently has a long position.

Elon Musk Crashes His Own Stock, selling $8.4 billion worth last week. His Twitter purchase has already been fully financed, so what else is he going to buy. The move generates a massive Federal tax bill, but Texas, his new residence, is a tax-free state. It continues a long-term trend of billionaires piling fortunes in high tax states, like Jeff Bezos in Washington, and then realizing the gains in tax-free states.

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages are Booming, replacing traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a rapid pace. Interest rates are 20% lower, but if rates skyrocket to double digits or more in five years, you have a really big problem. ARMs essentially take the interest rate risk off the backs of the lenders and place it firmly on the shoulders of the borrowers.

Travel Stocks are On Fire, with all areas showing the hottest numbers in history. Average daily hotel rates are up 20% YOY, stayed room nights 52%, airfares 39%, and airline tickets sold 48%. Expect these numbers to improve going into the summer.

JOLTS Hits a Record High, with 11.55 million job openings in March, up 205,000 on the month. There are now 5.6 million more jobs than people looking for them. No sign of a recession here. It augurs for a hot Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday.

Natural Gas Soars by 9% in Europe as the continent tries to wean itself off Russian supplies. In the meantime, US producers are refusing to boost output for a commodity that may drop by half in a year, as it has done countless times in the past. If the oil majors are avoiding risk here, maybe you should too.

My Ten-Year View

When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still historically cheap, oil peaking out soon, and technology hyper accelerating, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The America coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!

With some of the greatest market volatility seen since 1987, my May month-to-date performance lost 4.27%. My 2022 year-to-date performance retreated to 25.91%. The Dow Average is down -9.3% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high 56.62%.

On the next capitulation selloff day, which might come with the April Q1 earnings reports, I’ll be adding long positions in technology, banks, and biotech. I am currently in a rare 50% cash position awaiting the next ideal entry point.

That brings my 13-year total return to 538.47%, some 2.30 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My average annualized return has ratcheted up to 43.36%, easily the highest in the industry.

We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 81.9 million, up 500,000 in a week, and deaths topping 998,000 and have only increased by 5,000 in the past week. You can find the data here.

The coming week is a big one for jobs reports.

On Monday, May 9 at 8:00 AM EST, US Consumer Inflation Expectations are released.

On Tuesday, May 10 at 7:00 AM, the NFIB Business Optimism Index is confirmed.

On Wednesday, May 11 at 8:30 AM, the Core Inflation Rate for April is printed.

On Thursday, May 12 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are disclosed. Conoco Phillips (COP) reports. We also get the Producer Price Index.

On Friday, May 13 at 8:30 AM, the University of Michigan Consumer Price Index for May is disclosed. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is out.

As for me, not just anybody is allowed to fly in Hawaii. You have to undergo special training and obtain a license endorsement to cope with the Aloha State’s many aviation challenges.

You have to learn how to fly around an erupting volcano, as it can swing your compass by 30 degrees. You must master the fine art of getting hit by a wave on takeoff since it will bend your wingtips forward. And you’re not allowed to harass pods of migrating humpback whales, a sight I will never forget.

Traveling interisland can be highly embarrassing when pronouncing reporting points that have 16 vowels. And better make sure your navigation is good. Once a plane ditched interisland and the crew was found months later off the coast of Australia. Many are never heard from again.

And when landing on the Navy base at Ford Island, you were told to do so lightly, as they still hadn’t found all the bombs the Japanese had dropped during their Pearl Harbor attack.

You are also informed that there is one airfield on the north shore of Molokai you can never land at unless you have the written permission from the Hawaii Department of Public Health. I asked why and was told that it was the last leper colony in the United States.

My interest piqued, the next day found me at the government agency with application in hand. I still carried my UCLA ID which described me as a DNA researcher which did the trick.

When I read my flight clearance to the controller at Honolulu International Airport, he blanched, asking if a had authorization. I answered that yes, I did, I really was headed to the dreaded Kalaupapa Airport, the Airport of no Return.

Getting into Kalaupapa is no mean feat. You have to follow the north coast of Molokai, a 3,000-foot-high series of vertical cliffs punctuated by spectacular waterfalls. Then you have to cut your engine and dive for the runway in order to land into the wind. You can only do this on clear days, as the airport has no navigational aids. The crosswind is horrific.

If you don’t have a plane, it is a 20-mile hike down a slippery trail to get into the leper colony. It wasn’t always so easy.

During the 19^th century, Hawaiians were terrified of leprosy, believing it caused the horrifying loss of appendages, like fingers, toes, and noses, leaving bloody open wounds. So, King Kamehameha I exiled them to Kalaupapa, the most isolated place in the Pacific.

Sailing ships were too scared to dock. They simply threw their passengers overboard and forced them to swim for it. Once on the beach, they were beaten a clubbed for their positions. Many starved.

Leprosy was once thought to be the result of sinning or infidelity. In 1873, Dr. Gerhard Henrik Armauer Hansen of Norway was the first person to identify the germ that causes leprosy, the Mycobacterium leprae.

Thereafter, it became known as Hanson’s Disease. A multidrug treatment that arrested the disease, but never cured it, did not become available until 1981.

Leprosy doesn’t actually cause appendages to drop off as once feared. Instead, it deadens the nerves and then rats eat the fingers, toes, and noses of the sufferers when they are sleeping. It can only be contracted through eating or drinking live bacteria.

When I taxied to the modest one-hut airport, I noticed a huge sign warning “Closed by the Department of Health.” As they so rarely get visitors, the mayor came out to greet me. I shook his hand but there was nothing there. He was missing three fingers.

He looked at me, smiled, and asked, “How did you know?”

I answered, “I studied it in college.”

He then proceeded to give me a personal tour of the colony. The first thing you notice is that there are cemeteries everywhere filled with thousands of wooden crosses. Death is the town’s main industry.

There are no jobs. Everyone lives on food stamps. A boat comes once a week from Oahu to resupply the commissary. The government stopped sending new lepers to the colony in 1969 and is just waiting for the existing population to die off before they close it down.

Needless to say, it is one of the most beautiful places on the planet.

The highlight of the day was a stop at Father Damien’s church, the 19^th century Belgian catholic missionary who came to care for the lepers. He stayed until the disease claimed him and was later sainted. My late friend Robin Williams made a movie about him but it was never released to the public.

The mayor invited me to stay for lunch, but I said I would pass. I had to take off from Kalaupapa before the winds shifted.

It was an experience I will never forget.

Stay Healthy,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader