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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Sad Truth About Digital Marketing

Tech Letter

Granted that technology companies have been the mule carrying the load for the broader market, beneath it is an ugly underbelly of venomous spirits.

Digital tech companies are frauds.

This could crater the broader market if the worst-case scenarios play out.

What do I mean by labeling them frauds?

Well, first, not all tech companies are charlatans. The ones producing components like semiconductor companies and others creating hardware are not the target of my wrath.

Since content has migrated into an all-out assault on traditional media, there is a dirty little secret that is festering because the new online media isn’t regulated.

The numbers are all a lie.

Much of the analytics and calculus involved with crafting cost to the other side is being entirely gamed by tech companies quoting prices based on fake analytics.

Instagram switched over its algorithm to displaying photos chronologically, to now display posts that engage the most, more specifically, what gets clicked the most.

Consumers have complained about it being significantly harder to gain likes and followers because, for the ones that don’t have many clicks, it’s harder to get those added clicks if your post is relegated down the feed.

The platform has also been a breeding ground for fabricating likes, friends, views, clicks and so on. Companies can be hired per like, resulting in a beefed-up profile built on fantasy.

Ad companies gauge each Instagram profile by the amount of engagement generated and if most of them are fraudulent likes, there will be weak follow-through in sales after ad purchases since a good chunk of the potential audience is a mirage.

Instagram is the preferred social platform of most influencers and Facebook is attempting to merge both assets into one in order to claim to regulators that they can’t be separated.

Much of digital marketing has migrated down the path of growing a large following for the reason to qualify as an effective brand ambassador and siphon off influencer marketing budgets from corporates who desperately want to penetrate a target audience.

In an age of automated robocalls and strict email rules, companies hesitantly confess that the only way to reach their end buyer is through social media channels.

Corporates are wasting billions of dollars because they aren’t getting what they really pay for and are basically being fleeced by tech companies.

And if you think this is mutually exclusive to Facebook (FB) and Instagram, it happens in every tech company that involves data.

Tech companies are monetarily incentivized to flat out lie about their data, partially because the penalties are minimal or absent in many cases.

Marginal tactics to fast-track the process by buying likes should be rooted out of the eco-system.

They are not only hurting the trust users have with the platform, but misrepresenting the brand that associates with a product.

Tech firms ward off anyone and everything from taking a peek at internal data by claiming it is their proprietary IP causing them to effectively police themselves.

That is not even the worst part of it all.

Parent company Facebook is turning a blind eye to something that could crash the company.

Mark Zuckerberg's old classmate Aaron Greenspan published a report complaining that over 50% of Facebook accounts are fake.

Facebook is on record admitting that between 2-3% of accounts are fake, but that number is a dream and artificially low by a country mile.

If it is true that half of Facebook accounts are fake, this would mean that Facebook sits on over 1 billion fake accounts.

Never mind the fake likes or clicks issue, Facebook shareholders could lose most of their worth in this stock if the truth is ever discovered.

Remember, the network effect works on the way down just like it works on the way up as a de-facto force multiplier.

Facebook and many other tech firms are a black box just like the Google (GOOGL) search algorithm.

Yelp (YELP), the online review company, could potentially sub-contract out fake reviews and never disclose how many of them are truly fake, they have no incentive to.

I recently stayed in an Airbnb rental whose active management was sub-contracted to a local property manager.

When I met him, he told me “This apartment was just bought and you are the first guest to stay in this apartment, so if there are any issues, please contact us as soon as possible.”

Wait, hold on, in my head, I am thinking, how did I see 45 great reviews from the apartment’s profile if I am the first guest?

I logged on to reread some reviews and some of the responses were completely inaccurate about the apartment.

It was clear these were made up and paid for and I was, in fact, the first to stay in this apartment like the property manager said.

Expectedly, there was more wrong with the apartment than just the fake reviews.

The television, stove, and hot water didn’t work, the key to the apartment was half broken and I had to perform miracles just to get the front door open.

There is a reckoning coming to technology companies because of the rampant misuse of the technology by nefarious actors monetizing the platform while perverting it.

Companies look the other way because they don’t want a revaluation of their business model which would add costs and, in some cases, bankrupt a company if the problem isn’t fixable.

As we move forward, the problems enlarge.

In a nutshell, this is why everyone hates tech now and its already stomach-churning enough that these firms steal your personal data and sell it to whomever they want.

A harsh reckoning will eventually hit the involved companies, but until then, tech business models are manipulated to the extreme and they continue to print real and fake growth mixed together as one.

One day, that fake growth will vanish and these companies will have to explain why to their shareholders.

In the meantime, just assume all online reviews are fake and enjoy the bull market in tech.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 08:02:232020-05-11 12:20:28The Sad Truth About Digital Marketing
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 27, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“This is a huge amount of responsibility and I think we are all coming to terms with this responsibility.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Airbnb Brian Chesky

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/chesky.png 297 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 08:00:372019-11-27 07:59:27November 27, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 25, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AI HAS REACHED FARTHER THAN YOU THINK),
(AMZN), (MSFT), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-25 07:04:232019-11-25 06:44:59November 25, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

AI Has Reached Farther Than You Think

Tech Letter

I was lucky enough to get my hands on the Deloitte Private Technology Trends report named, “Seizing Opportunity.”

I’ll break down some of the gems I took away that will give us insight into the current state of technology.

This might not be necessarily a new idea because artificial intelligence has been around for a while, but it certainly is gaining steam with respondents placing greater value on artificial intelligence to drive business results.

Firms are using AI for analysis automation 48% of the time in 2019 versus 30% in 2018, putting the responsibility on this technology to super-drive profits.

It’s not a surprise that big data analysts have become one of the most sought-after commodities in Silicon Valley.

It’s appropriate to say that the FANGs have pulled away from any resemblance of competition in 2019 and this if forcing many mid-market and private companies to view talent and emerging technologies as the x-factors to stay competitive.

Behemoth tech companies have the luxury of cheap access to capital to buy out competition or break it by throwing money at problems until they can copy the technology and scale it applying force multiplier ecosystems to cross-pollinate and intertwine services with each other.

These same companies buy back their own stock with cheap capital enriching stakeholders and management.

In fact, Apple (AAPL) is buying back so much stock that it will have bought out its entire trove of stock by 2030 to effectively go private.

Deloitte found that 43% say they are spending more than 5% of their firm’s revenue on technology, a 15-point increase since 2016.

More than half of respondents forecast annual growth rates of 11% or higher and 68% plan to hire to harness the emerging technology.

Another trend that will pick up steam that I have noted before is the predictive analytics and legacy system modernization, and this is topping private companies’ investment priorities list.

In fact, the number of private companies surveyed using predictive analytics to diagnose business results skyrocketed 65% over the past five years.

Firms are prioritizing information security risks, the adoption of 5G technology, and business innovation over the next 365 days.

Digital disruption is the norm du jour.

Firms expect shifts in sales (55%), marketing (50%), and supply chain roles (49%) in the next 3-5 years.

In preparation, 54% of mid-market and private companies are re-skilling employees and 52% are reconfiguring jobs to accommodate this shift.

Also, 72% believe internal development and reskilling is a method to enhance employees’ potential because of the exorbitant costs of talent acquisition.

Over two-thirds (69%) will construct new talent acquisition strategies to marry it up with the trend of hiring in data analytics, AI and other emerging technologies.

In a major reversal, respondents are less likely to seek out crowdsourcing and gig economy workers because these types of workers are less effective than full-time workers and have high turnover rates.

More than 32% of private companies acknowledge that embedded value is trending towards machine learning, robotic process automation and other cognitive capabilities, a 12% increase from 2018’s survey results.

Although executives are experiencing greater benefits from AI technologies, more than one-half of respondents (55%) are worried about the use of AI, particularly when it comes to HR decision-making.

Personally, I believe using AI in HR is mostly flawed.  

In short, firms are doubling down on “emerging technologies” and to combat the superior business models of big tech companies.

They almost have no choice.

These conditions favor the status quo of behemoth tech titans who can invest in machine learning and artificial intelligence because of their cheap sources of capital.

From the data, smaller companies are desperate to hang on to their talent because of a shrinking talent pool and high talent acquisition cost.

The belief that leveraging foundational technologies to springboard revenue is only getting stronger. This favors the goliaths at the top because they have the resources to integrate these levers unlike companies further down the food chain.

This article could almost signal why investors can’t be short Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL).

They are at the vanguard of every major technology trend and they have demonstrated that they are definitely “seizing opportunity.”

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-25 07:02:222020-05-11 12:20:43AI Has Reached Farther Than You Think
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 25, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The rise of extreme inequality both within nations and between nations that is being turbocharged by globalization and technology (is one of the biggest risks for young people).” - Said former President of the United States Barack Obama at Salesforce.com Inc.’s annual Dreamforce Conference in San Francisco.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/obama.png 354 408 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-25 07:00:192019-11-25 07:06:32November 25, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 22, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE REAL STORY BEHIND THE CHARLES SCHWAB/TD AMERITRADE MERGER),
(SCHW), (AMTD), (ETFC), (IBKR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-22 07:04:342019-11-22 07:35:49November 22, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Real Story Behind the Charles Schwab/TD Ameritrade Merger

Tech Letter

There are certain parts of tech that I routinely bash on like travel tech, music streaming tech, and the usefulness of social media companies.

One other group of companies that I’m just as sour on are the discount e-brokers.

Yes, tech has embedded deflation into every company causing operations to become more efficient while boosting performance.

That doesn’t necessarily translate into more sales for some, and they have cut down the barriers of entry to e-brokers who have struggled.

The race down to zero finally hit rock bottom a few months ago when Interactive Brokers (IBKR) announced doing away with trading fees.

Buying and selling stocks and ETFs now costs the consumer nothing and this has been great news for investors and traders who don’t need to shoulder the extra trading costs.

But what about the e-brokers themselves?

Today Charles Schwab (SCHW) announced they are in negotiations to buy out the smaller TD Ameritrade (AMTD).

This was due to happen and is just another round of an industry-wide reshuffle.

I have never once thought these e-broker companies were a candidate for a tech alert, there are so many better companies out there.

Smaller commissions mean less revenue and the exact opposite of what investors should hope for in a tech company.

The lack of pricing power stems from the issue that e-brokers offer a commodified service of selling standard products and pricing is the only way to differentiate themselves.

The first startup company to offer zero was Menlo Park, California dark horse Robinhood which was recently valued at $7.6 billion.

They make money on the interest from customer deposits and sell data flow to high-frequency traders who in turn monetize the numbers using faster internet connections.

The spirited startup was found in 2013 and has added over 6 million users who are mostly from the Millennial age group.

These 6 million also represent the numbers lost to the discount e-brokers.

Robinhood’s influence in the industry cannot be understated as they singlehandedly forced an e-broker to cut commissions one by one blowing up their business model.

E-brokers had no choice but to cut to zero unless they were content to bleed customers.

Don’t forget that TD Ameritrade acquired competitor Scottrade just two years ago as the consolidation merry-go-round began.

The Schwab and TD Ameritrade deal will create over $5 trillion in asset management together.

Moving forward, the big question is how can these companies sustain themselves.

Exactly, there appears to be no panacea and I would recommend any investor to avoid investing in these e-brokers.

Schwab appears to be hanging their hat on their additional financial services they will be able to provide customers like offering mutual funds.

In addition to offering online brokerage accounts and robo-advisor services, Schwab and TD Ameritrade play a pivotal role in the independent advisory space because they custody assets and offer related services to RIAs.

According to Financial Advisor magazine, Schwab is the leading RIA custodian, and TD Ameritrade ranks third after Fidelity.

A merged company can theoretically offer more services to RIAs, but could also create opportunities for others.

Could these services become a race down to zero as well?

Disruption is in the early innings and round two could see Interactive Brokers or E*Trade (ETFC) in the next round of consolidation.

Smaller e-brokers will in time go bust or get bought out.

This reaffirms the broad trend of financial jobs eroding rapidly as the onslaught of technology has made certain jobs obsolete.

U.S. financial jobs are set to slide by 10% in the upcoming years.

Back office bank jobs are disappearing as we speak and the next big wave of job losses after that will be the front-office broker.

Yes, your Schwab broker could become an algorithm.

At some point, there will be a few managers left over, a handful of executives, and an army of software engineers.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-22 07:02:492020-05-11 12:21:02The Real Story Behind the Charles Schwab/TD Ameritrade Merger
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 22, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I am so disturbed by kids who spend all day playing videogames.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Oracle Larry Ellison

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/ellison.png 275 320 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-22 07:00:402019-11-22 07:34:57November 22, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 20, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MY CURRENT TECHNOLOGY TRADING STRATEGY),
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (APPL), (ADBE), (AKAM), (VEEV), (FTNT), (WKDAY), (TTD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-20 06:04:372019-11-20 05:52:22November 20, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

My Current Technology Trading Strategy

Tech Letter

Some might say that we were due for a revaluation of growth tech stocks.

They have contributed greatly in this nine-year bull market.

Profit-generating software stocks are the order of the day.

Tech has led the overall market higher after projected quarterly earnings growth of -9% came in better than expected at -5%.

We have ebbed and flowed from pricing in a full-out recession in mid-2020 to now believing a recession is further off than first thought.

The pendulum swing ruptured many growth stocks from Workday (WKDAY) to The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) plummeting 30%.

We have retraced some of those losses but momentum in share appreciation has shifted to the perceived safer variation of tech stocks.

Investors have cut volatility and headed into bulletproof companies of Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).

These companies have significant competitive advantages, Teflon balance sheets, and print money.

The tech markets just about priced in the U.S - China trade war in the fall as broad-based volatility plummeted because of optimism around making a deal.

This, in turn, has boosted chips stocks along with investors front running the 5G revolution and the administration granting Huawei a reprieve was a cherry on top.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has taken every dip to initiate new longs in safe trades like software companies Adobe (ADBE) and Veeva Systems (VEEV).

Tech is at the point that all loss-making companies are out of the running for tech alerts because the moment there is a recession scare, these shares drop 10% and often don’t stop until they lose 30%.

Now there is a deeply embedded set of narrow tech leadership by a few dominant tech companies buttressed by a select set of second-tier software stocks.

I would put PayPal (PYPL) and Twitter (TWTR), which I currently have open trades on, in the ranks of the second tier and they should do well as long as economic growth does better than expected.

Their share prices dipped on weak guidance and the bad news appears to have been shaken out of these names.

Professional investors could also be hanging on to meet end-of-year performance targets.

I do expect unique entry points on software stocks that drop after bad future guidance.

Profitability has moved to the fore as the biggest factor in holding a name or not.

Newly minted IPOs have fared even worse showing the markets' waning appetite for loss makers like Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT).

Loss-making companies often tout their ability to change the world and disrupt industry, but that has been discovered as nothing more than a ruse.

They aren’t disrupting the way we change the world. For example, Uber is a dressed-up taxi service and the new CEO has failed to create any new momentum in the unit economics that spectacularly fail by any type of metric.

Even worse for these growth stocks, as the economy starts to falter, there will be even less appetite for them, and even more appetite for safer tech stocks.

A worst-case scenario would see Uber drop to $10 and Lyft to $20.

New all-time highs have crystalized with Google (GOOGL) under the gauntlet of regulation hysteria displaying the domination of these big tech machines.

The ongoing, consistent rotation out of growth and into value hasn’t run its course yet and fortunately, by identifying this important trend, our readers will be well placed to advantageously position themselves going into 2020.

Growth stocks won’t make a comeback anytime soon and deteriorating conditions could trigger renewed synchronized global monetary policy easing and central bank stimulus.

And yes, more negative rates.

I believe Oracle (ORCL), Fortinet (FTNT), Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) could weather the storm next year.

Tech growth is slowing and trade uncertainty is high, and readers must have a sense of urgency to avoid the losers in this scenario.

U.S. economic growth could slow to 1.3% next year, avoiding a recession, and the lack of enterprise spend will reduce software sales and combine that with peak smartphone growth and it won’t be smooth sailing.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has the pulse of the tech market and will show you how to navigate this minefield.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-20 06:02:532020-05-11 12:21:19My Current Technology Trading Strategy
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