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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is 3D Printing a Waste of Space?

Tech Letter

If you need a new investment theme – here’s one.

3D printing.

Yes, the same 3D printing that was once considered a raging but hopeless fad.

A lot has changed since then.

Early adopters were largely cut down at the knees as they tried to traverse the rocky terrain from a niche market to going full out mainstream.

Production complications and the lack of specialists in the industry meant that problems were rampant and nurturing an industry from scratch is harder than you think.

Believe me, I’ve been there and done that.

It is time to stand up and take notice of 3D printing, this time it is here to stay.

Certain tech companies love this technology like e-commerce company Etsy (ETSY) who focuses on personalized handcrafts.

The cost of production doesn’t change whether you’re producing one item or a million because of the economies of scale.

The previous 3D printing bonanza was a frenzy and this corner of tech became known for the use of buzzwords representing the potential to reinvent the world.

With lofty expectations, there was a natural disappointment when outsiders understood growing pains were part of the critical evolution instead of a direct route to profits.

The initial goal was to democratize production which sounds eerily similar to bitcoins mantra of democratizing money.

The way to do this was to make it simple to produce whatever one wishes.

That would assume that the general public could pick up professional production 3D printing skills on arrival.

That was wishful thinking.

The truth was that applying 3D printers was tedious.

Issues cropped up like faulty first-generation hardware or software -problems that overwhelmed newbies.

Then if everything was going smoothly on that front, there was the larger issue of realizing it’s just a lot harder to design specific things than initially thought without a deep working knowledge of computer-aided software (CAD) design.

Most people know how to throw a football, but that doesn’t mean that most people can be Super Bowl quarterback Tom Brady.

The high-quality 3D printing designs were reserved for authentic professionals that could put together complicated designs.

The move to compiling a comprehensive library will help spur on the 3D printing revolution while upping the foundational skill base.

Then there is the fact that 3D printing technology is heaps better now than it once was, and the printing technology has come down in price making it more affordable for the masses.

These trends will propel broad-based adoption and as the printing process standardizes, more products can rely on this technology from scratch.

The holy grail of 3D printing would be 3D printing on demand, but imagine this on-demand 3D printing would function to personalize a physical product on the spot.

Think of a hungry customer walking into a restaurant and not even looking at a menu because one sentence would be enough to trigger specific models in the database that could conjure up the design for the meal.

This would involve integrating artificial intelligence into 3D printing and the production process would quicken to minutes, even seconds.

At some point, crafting the perfect meal or designing a personalized Tuscan villa could take minutes.

The 3D printing industry is reaching an inflection point where the advancement of the technology, expertise, and an updated production process are percolating together at the perfect time.

The company at the forefront of this phenomenon is Stratasys (SSYS).

Stratasys produces in-office prototypes and direct digital manufacturing systems for automotive, aerospace, industrial, recreational, electronic, medical and consumer products.

And when I talk about real pros who have the intellectual property to whip out a complex CAD-based 3D design, I am specifically talking about Stratasys who have been in this business since the industry was in its infancy.

And if you add in the integration of cloud software, 3D printing would dovetail nicely with it.

All the elements are in perfect in place to fuel this industry into the mainstream.

Take for example airplanes made by Boeing (BA) and Airbus - 3D printer-designed parts comprise only 0.1% of the actual plane now.

It is estimated that 3D printed design parts could potentially consist up to 25% of the overall plane.

These massive airline manufacturers like Boeing (BA) have profit margins of around 15% to 20%, and carving out more 3D printer-designed parts to integrate into the main design will boost profit margins close to 60%.

The development of the 3D printing process into aerospace technology is happening fast with Boeing inking a multi-year collaboration agreement with Swiss technology and engineering group Oerlikon to develop standard processes and materials for metal 3D printing.

Any combat pilot knows who Oerlikon is because they are famed for building ultra-highspeed machines to shoot down, you guessed it, airplanes and missiles.

They will collaborate to use the data resulting from their agreement to support the creation of a standard titanium 3D printing processes.

GE’s Aviation’s GEnx-2B aircraft engine for the Boeing 747-8 is applying a 3D printed bracket approved by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the engine, replacing a traditionally manufactured power door opening system (PDOS) bracket.

With the positive revelations that the (FAA) is supporting the adoption of 3D printing-based designs, GE has already started mass production of the 3D printed brackets at its Auburn, Alabama facility.

Defense companies are also dipping their toe into the water with aerospace company Lockheed Martin (LMT), the world’s largest defense contractor, winning a $5.8 million contract with the Office of Naval Research to help further develop 3D printing for the aerospace industry.

They will partner up to investigate the use of artificial intelligence in training robots to independently oversee the 3D printing of complex aerospace components.

3D printed designs have the potential to crash the cost of making big-ticket items from cars to nuclear plants while substantially shortening the manufacturing process.

As it stands, Stratasys is the industry leader in this field and if you believe in this long term then this stock would be for you.

It’s nonetheless still a speculative punt but a compelling pocket of the tech industry.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-16 07:02:582020-05-11 13:26:28Is 3D Printing a Waste of Space?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 16, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Capitalism has worked very well. Anyone who wants to move to North Korea is welcome.” – Said Founder and Former CEO of Microsoft Bill Gates

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/bill-gates.png 397 499 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-16 07:00:062019-10-16 06:40:34October 16, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT IS AUTONOMOUS DRIVING REALLY WORTH?)
(WAYMO), (UBER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-14 04:04:262019-10-14 03:30:09October 14, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What is Autonomous Driving Really Worth

Tech Letter

Is Waymo the real deal?

Apparently not.

That is my takeaway from an analyst cutting the valuation estimate by 40% for Alphabet’s autonomous car subsidiary Waymo from $175 billion to $105 billion.

At $175 billion, investors were giving Waymo the benefit of the doubt plus a generous serving of hyperbole when this unproven technology has never in the history of mankind been monetized successfully before.

Well, $105 billion is a stretch in current times and that valuation might need to be revisited a few months down the line as well.

In a stock market that has frowned upon the waterfall of cheap money of late to fuel its absurd risk/reward strategies, Waymo’s haircut falls in line echoes the same parallels.

This current market climate is more about bulletproof balance sheets and the Waymos, Ubers and Lyfts of the world are getting a nice bench seat in the penalty box.

Today marked an even lower nadir with Uber Technologies Inc. announcing that it is on the verge of acquiring a majority stake in online grocer Cornershop, a deal designed to both extend its geographic reach and boost profits by commingling food delivery with rides.

Cornershop is a digital grocer in Santiago, Chile.

Yes, Chile, the country in South America.

It’s hard to believe that Uber must reach that far down the olive branch to grow.

Prepare yourself for anything like pig farms in Zimbabwe or plumbing businesses in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Who really knows anymore!

These types of exotic purchases are exactly what Mr. Market despises in a climate of negative tech earnings growth.

But I do believe Uber is at the point where CEO Dara Khosrowshahi must become the unlikely savior as the alarm bells are ringing with current Uber investors presiding over a calamitous decline in shares since the IPO.

It’s a rough one and tough sledding for tech executives in 2019.

And it’s no surprise why the number of fired tech CEOs has mushroomed from the CEO of eBay Devin Wenig to the fake tech CEO of office-sharing company WeWork Adam Neuman who spectacularly lost $3.5 billion of personal wealth in less than 30 days.

He is still left with $600 million but his story epitomizes the tech climate right now and there are no free lunches.

So is Waymo ready to deliver or is it a charade?

Waymo pinged an email to customers of its ride-hailing app that their next trip might not have a human safety driver behind the wheel.

The email, entitled “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way,” was sent to riders in Phoenix.

A geofenced area that covers several suburbs, including Chandler and Tempe, have a human safety driver behind the wheel and the grid-like setup makes it easy for self-driving technology to perform well.

Waymo has dabbled in Chandler, Ariz. in 2016 and has slowly built this program toward commercial deployment.

Recently, Waymo opened its second technical service center in the Phoenix area to serve a doubling of the fleet.

The general public has never gotten a taste of this technology and I bet it will be years before Waymo is ready and not the late 2019 and early 2020 projection they promised us a few years ago.

There are too many known unknowns that have yet to be solved such as what limitations Waymo will place on these rides.

Waymo is effective in controlled environments but thrown in the natural elements, nighttime, and unforeseen circumstances and the effectiveness deteriorates by orders of a magnitude.

I believe the hurdles relating to the commercialization and advancement of autonomous driving technology will keep slowing Waymo’s march towards success.

Analysts have underestimated how long safety drivers will accompany cars with the most likely outcome a broad-based delay of the rollout of autonomous ridesharing services.

Profitability has been vastly miscalculated as well.

Each driverless car unit is more expensive than first thought and will stay operationally loss-making for years longer.

The technology isn’t advancing at the rate it was when this technology was incubated, Waymo has clearly plateaued and there is a bottleneck in terms of meaningful solutions.

Alphabet has already invested deeply into driverless cars.

Not only them, but Uber already had spent over $1 billion on autonomous cars at the time they went public.

I won’t say this is a black hole of investment capital, but the losses will keep mounting for the next few years and there is no inflection point in sight.

Waymo will continue to be a drag on Alphabet’s earnings after there were such high hopes for the rapid deployment of self-driving cars.

There is a light at the end of a dark tunnel, but that light seems further away than ever.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-14 04:02:252020-05-11 13:26:20What is Autonomous Driving Really Worth
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I have a secret project which adds four hours every day to the 24 hours we have. There's a bit of time travel involved.” – Said CEO of Google Sundar Pichai

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/pichai.png 454 458 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-14 04:02:212019-10-14 03:33:41October 14, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 11, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 11, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CISCO’S DOWNWARD SPIRAL)
(CSCO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-11 01:04:512019-10-10 16:01:56October 11, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Cisco's Downward Spiral

Tech Letter

The technology infrastructure company Cisco sold off over 2% after Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

His downgrade was based on a guess that enterprise spending will weaken further, and that telecom spending will continue to remain unimpressive.  

This shows you how far the bank of the elite has fallen and the quality of their research considering Cisco’s earnings report was in August and this call should have gone out far earlier.

Goldman Sachs (GS) has trimmed headcount fiercely as their traditional businesses from IPOs to trading have been squeezed to suffocating levels forcing the bank to go into the subprime segment with the Apple (AAPL) credit card.

In Silicon Valley, Cisco’s shares will be subdued for the foreseeable future because the telecom segment is softening up as we motor into 2020 nicely, noted by Goldman.

The headwinds stem from the slow adoption of 5G and requisite carrier network automation implementation.

If you thought 5G would happen with a mere snap of the fingers, you are wrong. It will be implemented in agonizingly slow stages with lots of trial and error along the way.

Enterprise spending has also tapered off boding ill for the company that supplies the foundational technology to the software startups.

Adding fuel to the fire, waning business confidence at large enterprise driven by trade volatility as opposed to a broader macro slowdown is somewhat disconcerting and Cisco will most likely trade sideways in a stupor until external catalysts either pick up the stock or the bizarre world of geopolitics slams it down.

The floor of the stock is solid and deeply rooted in the profitability of the stock.

This is a great company and is one of the premier brands that slide in nicely in most offices in Silicon Valley.

The company isn’t a growth company, yet not written off into the legacy dustbin, and the sudden paradigm shift to value has made this stock even more attractive.

The 7% revenue YOY growth last quarter is not a problem as risk appetites are reigned back as the economic cycle ends.

EPS grew to $3.10 highlighting the ultra-profitable nature of the company.

Many of the recent tech selloffs in individual names have been induced by sour forward-looking outlooks and Cisco followed suit calling for 0-2% revenue growth, and GAAP EPS growth of -14% year-over-year.

The company has turned to the exciting revenue stream of subscriptions accounting for around 70% of the company's software sales.

This has created inflated net margins with Cisco improving from 16.7% five years ago to 25.8% today.

Cisco is a cash cow generating $15.8 billion of cash flows from operations, up 16% year-over-year.

The bump up in cash flow has made it easier to justify M&A which Cisco has routinely turned to in an effort to shore up different areas of the business.

A dividend was initiated in 2011 providing shareholders with strong annual double-digit percentage increases.

Financial engineering doesn’t stop there with Cisco's buyback approach resulting in reducing its outstanding share count by roughly 16.3% over the past 5 years adding to the profitability narrative.

Macro-risks have gone up the wazoo in the external market and Cisco is a legitimate candidate for a short-term trade to safety at these levels and a long-term investment.

Considering that their Chinese business is only in the single digits and revenue growth is in the high single digits, value-added management should make this company even more compelling.

And as the next wave of 5G adoption hits, this stock will experience a tidal wave of asset appreciation.

I can guarantee that the best is yet to come, and the status quo isn’t all that bad too.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-11 01:02:502020-05-11 13:26:16Cisco's Downward Spiral
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 11, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“There are two equalizers in life: the Internet and education.” – Said Former CEO of Cisco John Chambers

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/john-chambers.png 283 424 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-11 01:00:472019-10-10 15:47:11October 11, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 9, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 9, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT’S BEHIND THE CHINESE TECH BLACKLIST)
(FTNT), (PANW), (CRWD), (CYBR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-09 09:04:072019-10-09 09:44:01October 9, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What's Behind the Chinese Tech Blacklist

Tech Letter

The administration banning 8 Chinese tech companies screams one thing – American cybersecurity will become more important than ever before.

Interestingly enough, most of the entry list included Chinese own version of cybersecurity companies which usually participate in heavy-handed censorship including facial recognition startups Sensetime, Megvii and Yitu, video surveillance specialists Hikvision and Dahua Technology, iFlyTek, Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co and Yixin Science and Technology Co.

All of these companies have “borrowed” American source code while applying American designed semiconductors to create a business aiding the interests and model of the Chinese Communist Party.

As the stakes become higher, American companies too will have to grow cybersecurity budgets, and instead of budgeting for mass authoritarian censorship, American companies will need to spend to protect the technology and networks they develop from getting pillaged from totalitarian regimes.

If American tech companies renege on the Faustian bargain of doing business in China for their technology, then it will force the Chinese to acquire this sensitive technology by any means possible and that doesn’t involve sitting on the emperor’s chair in Beijing.

What does this mean for the broader trade war?

Even if we get a mini deal, it won’t address that the main guts of the trade conflict entails killing off Chinese tech in the way we know it now.

Being able to agree on some sort of enforceable mechanism is a pipe dream, even if an enforceable mechanism is agreed on, who will enforce the enforceable mechanism?

That’s how tricky it is for corporates doing business in China and now the NBA (National Basketball Association) has received a small sampling of the trade war with one innocuous quote by Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey who tweeted then deleted his democratic support for the Hong Kong freedom movement.

The ban of these 8 Chinese companies means they will no longer be able to purchase U.S.-made technology parts to use as inputs of a censorship business model that goes against democratic values.

The trigger for the blacklist was the way these technologies were used to imprison ethnic Muslim minorities in Chinese Xinjiang province paving the way for China to lash out again against the U.S for the ban.

Not only has China applied the technology to Chinese nationals, they have exported this technology to African states and are allowed access to the data which could theoretically be exploited for additional economic and political gain about which they essentially have no qualms.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang has characterized this move as “interfering in China’s internal affairs” and as you probably believe, he expressed great unsatisfaction with this move as Chinese and American delegations plan to meet shortly to hash out their differences.

The 8 banned companies will need to source alternative tech in the same way that Huawei Technologies has done.

Huawei was banned this past April under national security premises blocking access to US-made software for its handsets and devices, such as Google’s Android operating system and Microsoft’s Windows.

This will hurt certain semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia who sell artificial intelligence chips for video surveillance to Hikvision and semiconductor stocks have sold off hard on this news.

Washington’s move has laid bare the fierce struggle for technology supremacy and America’s refusal to allow Chinese technology companies to reign supreme off of ill-gotten intellectual property and American semiconductor chips.

It could be the final straw in corporate America funding China to take down itself or at least another step to disengaging with the Sino cash cow.

And this new episode is almost guaranteed to usher in a flight of capital to American cybersecurity companies as Chinese hackers open up a new frontier to hack the best of America’s intellectual property.

I envision the likes of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), and CyberArk Software Ltd. (CYBR) as good long term buy and holds that offer quality exposure to the cybersecurity story and the future growth of it.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-09 09:02:002020-05-11 13:26:10What's Behind the Chinese Tech Blacklist
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